Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Endus]

Why do people keep entertaining some notion that you can do any sort of deal with Russia and then have Russia honor that deal?

Reminder that we're in this situation at all because Russia formed a deal with Ukraine in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union whereby Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons stored on their lands to Russia, and Russia promised to never, ever, ever under any circumstances violate Ukraine's borders.

The invasion of Crimea in 2014 was when Russia violated those terms, for no reason but expansionist greed. Nobody should have ever trusted any Russian agreement past that date.

[Corvus]

russia has made it repeatedly clear that the absolute minimum they will accept in any peace deal is a ban on Ukraine ever joining NATO, the disarmament of the Ukrainian army, a lifting of all sanctions, and all the land they have claimed, a large part of which they have never occupied - which I think includes the land bridge all the way to Transnistria. Ukraine can not accept that, for obvious reasons. And russia will never accept whatever Trump tries to foist on them.

And even if somehow peace is arranged, russia needs to be at war otherwise its economy will collapse. They won't need to leave a million men in Ukraine. They will have to pick a fresh target to keep feeding the war machine - so all of russia's neighbours must start to prepare for that. Georgia would probably be the most obvious next victim.

[Tyris Flare]

Reminder that we're in this situation at all because Russia formed a deal with Ukraine in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union whereby Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons stored on their lands to Russia, and Russia promised to never, ever, ever under any circumstances violate Ukraine's borders.

The invasion of Crimea in 2014 was when Russia violated those terms, for no reason but expansionist greed. Nobody should have ever trusted any Russian agreement past that date.

The Bush administration pushed for Ukraine in NATO against the wishes of Merkel and Sarkozy (and Russia obviously) right before he left office, a mistake that has added millions of lives to the dead Bush W already left behind. Trump still has some work to catch up to him as the worst president in modern history.

Anyway, Russia isn't trustworthy, but the idea that the US is is beyond laughable. We also invade countries and we've interfered in more elections than Russia or China could ever dream.

Maybe one small virtue of Trump being elected is even liberals will finally come around to realizing what leftists did a long time ago, that the US is an Empire like any other and "democracy at the barrel of a gun" liberalism has been a catastrophe for the US and the world.

[Endus]

Anyway, Russia isn't trustworthy, but the idea that the US is is beyond laughable. We also invade countries and we've interfered in more elections than Russia or China could ever dream.

Dude, I'm a Canadian and Trump's reneging on deals from like a week ago already. Canada largely considers the USA to be a hostile country at this point.

[Kaleredar]

The Bush administration pushed for Ukraine in NATO against the wishes of Merkel and Sarkozy (and Russia obviously) right before he left office, a mistake that has added millions of lives to the dead Bush W already left behind. Trump still has some work to catch up to him as the worst president in modern history.

Anyway, Russia isn't trustworthy, but the idea that the US is is beyond laughable. We also invade countries and we've interfered in more elections than Russia or China could ever dream.

Maybe one small virtue of Trump being elected is even liberals will finally come around to realizing what leftists did a long time ago, that the US is an Empire like any other and "democracy at the barrel of a gun" liberalism has been a catastrophe for the US and the world.

And regardless of any of that being true or not… Russia is still the one at fault, here. Trump’s duplicity has no bearing on Russia’s culpability and the notion that Ukraine should in no way acquiesce to them.


And as I noted earlier… if trump is going to be the feckless orange fool that he is, it’s time for Europe to pull its big boy pants on.

[alach]

A couple CNN articles here, just thought the pair of stories are important together. Cause and effect. America traded friends for enemies.

US relations with Europe will never be the same after a call with Putin that highlights Trump’s ‘America First’ ideology

It’s long been clear that the second Trump administration would place new demands on America’s European partners, which will now lead to agonized choices for governments that have chosen social spending over defense. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament last month that Europeans must come up with more cash for their militaries. “If you don’t do it, get your Russian language courses or go to New Zealand,” he said.

But Hegseth was still jarring. He formalized Trump’s demand for alliance members to spend 5% of GDP on defense and said the US would prioritize its growing clash with China and the security of its borders over Europe’s. “The United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency,” said the new Pentagon chief, who was wearing a stars-and-stripes pocket square.

What was this guy's rank again?
And then this one;

Bolton: Trump has effectively surrendered to Putin in Ukraine negotiations

John Bolton, who served as national security adviser in President Donald Trump’s first administration, says that President Trump 'effectively surrendered' to Vladimir Putin in the lead up to negotiations over the fate of Ukraine.

Recently, a couple months ago, 14 European countries were polled on global events and opinions. In some of the countries, there was a less than 5% difference between Russia and the US are both adversaries or Europe.

poll

[Elenos]

Untrue. Europe has said over and over again, Ukraine's future is in both NATO and the EU.

If you think Ukraine has the votes to join either NATO or the EU you're dreaming hard on that.

A lot of people love to attach themselves to public statements as if they mean a damned thing. But hey nice statements mean a lot right?

Where's the massive military industrial funding that Ukraine needs so Europe can even produce weapons to give them? Oh right.

[alach]

Yeah you are right.

NATO would be lucky and should be on their knees begging to have Ukraine at this point.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are the fifth largest armed force in the world in terms of both active personnel as well as total number of personnel with the eighth largest defence budget in the world, and it also operates one of the largest and most diverse drone fleets in the world.

If they weren't being, you know, invaded and attacked, the military complex that Europe needs is right there.

[Wilian]

I mean what did people expect exactly as an outcome?

Well for one you shouldn't start negotiations from the compromise position.

[Twdft]

If I were Selenskyj I'd say to the EU "well we tried to defend ourselves and with the US backing ruSSia we'll have to call it quits. Scootch over, 35 million Ukrainians are coming to apply for asylum due to not wanting to be genocided anymore".

[hellhamster]

EU is gonna get shit on either way.

I read on Bloomberg that the calculated cost for a "peace treaty" instigated by Trump or otherwise would signify a need for €3 trillion in the coming 10 years just to keep up with the new Defense and NATO GDP requirement costs. Ukraine alone would require something like €300 billion as the bare minimum.

[Iphie]

If I were Selenskyj I'd say to the EU "well we tried to defend ourselves and with the US backing ruSSia we'll have to call it quits. Scootch over, 35 million Ukrainians are coming to apply for asylum due to not wanting to be genocided anymore".

Quickly followed by roughly 2.5 million Moldovans who have no appetite for becoming russian again either.

[Mayhem]

EU is gonna get shit on either way.

I read on Bloomberg that the calculated cost for a "peace treaty" instigated by Trump or otherwise would signify a need for €3 trillion in the coming 10 years just to keep up with the new Defense and NATO GDP requirement costs. Ukraine alone would require something like €300 billion as the bare minimum.

Could you maybe link the article because without context these numbers mean whatever anyone wants.

[alach]

One final headline from CNN from me today.

Putin has waited for this moment for 3 years

Headline says it all, but the link is there. I mean, we all saw this coming, we knew this was how it was going to go down. Honestly I am just surprised about trump is destroying his own economy and world reputation adjacent to selling out Ukraine and Gaza. Hows those egg prices over there?

[Kaleredar]

One final headline from CNN from me today.

Putin has waited for this moment for 3 years

Headline says it all, but the link is there. I mean, we all saw this coming, we knew this was how it was going to go down. Honestly I am just surprised about trump is destroying his own economy and world reputation adjacent to selling out Ukraine and Gaza. Hows those egg prices over there?

Weirdly enough, they’ve continued to go up!

Don’t worry, I’ve been assured by some very concerned posters around here that those prices will definitely be going back down. Soon. Or rather, that Americans will have the costs offset by tax breaks. Or… mitigated by tax breaks? Or… that only the already mega-wealthy will be receiving tax breaks.


Hmmm…


At any rate, amidst all this I’m chocking up another L for the American media. Why is the headline “Trump surrenders to Russia” not being blasted far and wide? Would definitely get them a lot of clicks.

[Edge-]

One final headline from CNN from me today.

Putin has waited for this moment for 3 years

Headline says it all, but the link is there. I mean, we all saw this coming, we knew this was how it was going to go down. Honestly I am just surprised about trump is destroying his own economy and world reputation adjacent to selling out Ukraine and Gaza. Hows those egg prices over there?

congrats to donald

he may have saved the russian stock market and economy

[Elenos]

EU is gonna get shit on either way.

I read on Bloomberg that the calculated cost for a "peace treaty" instigated by Trump or otherwise would signify a need for €3 trillion in the coming 10 years just to keep up with the new Defense and NATO GDP requirement costs. Ukraine alone would require something like €300 billion as the bare minimum.

300 billion a year for 3 trillion in 10 years?

That's peanuts compared to what we've spent due to this war already here in Europe.

Want me to give you a figure?

Over 2 TRILLION.

And that was just for the first 2 years of the war, not the third.

Just a source, this was at the end of 2022, it did improve but it's only energy cost: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-of-the-crisis

I also have to say that anyone who genuinely believes we can close Pandora's Box and go back to pre-war defense spending in Europe is drinking a LOT. So yeah we'll be paying that 3 trillion, and that's likely on the lower scale.

congrats to donald

he may have saved the russian stock market and economy

Sanctions have their uses, but all this talk about destroying the economy of a country through them...well I have to say did that work for Iran?

No.

Oh to be sure it made life miserable over there, but did it produce any marked change in terms of Iran's actual foreign policy...eh no?

One statement always sticks out to me about the price of a war, sanctions, economy vs national security goals: Pakistan outright saying they'll have a nuke even if they have to eat grass.

[Dontrike]

How much do you think Trump wanted to surrender the US to Russia during their last phone call?

[Draco-Onis]

How much do you think Trump wanted to surrender the US to Russia during their last phone call?

What makes you think he hasn't already? All that data Elon Musk is stealing isn't going to stay in his data centers.

[Nymrohd]

Sanctions have their uses, but all this talk about destroying the economy of a country through them...well I have to say did that work for Iran?

It also minimized their ability to project force and slowed down their nuclear program immensely. Oh they could absolutely fund militias all over the Middle East and even further but could they engage in actual military adventurism like Russia did? A properly sanctioned Russia would not be able to maintain the invasion, simple as that. It could fund little green men, not an actual invasion.

That said, we are all fucked. I need to pick up Mandarin again