Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Rasulis]

It specifically states - Chinese distributors have been notified to stop deliveries to Russia. Obviously something will go through. But Russia is a country of 145 million - even China cannot sell that much under the table and will not risk annoying Intel and AMD too much.
It will suck and it will suck hard.

The ruble exchange rate will make it even worse. The Russia Centra Bank actually intervene and set the ruble exchange rate at 97.7688 per Euro. The Chinese likely does not want to get paid in ruble.

[Bluespiderman57]

The ruble exchange rate will make it even worse. The Russia Centra Bank actually intervene and set the ruble exchange rate at 97.7688 per Euro. The Chinese likely does not want to get paid in ruble.

That's excatly why Russia has been planning for this for years. They have, I beleive, the 4th largest foriegn currency reserve in the world.


Russian central bank steps in to prop up rouble and avert market collapse

Russia’s currency, bonds and stocks all sank before its central bank announced its first foreign exchange intervention to shore up financial stability since 2014, when the country annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Russia holds a formidable war chest of more than $600bn (£450bn) in foreign-exchange reserves and gold that it can use in currency markets to prop up the rouble.

A rapidly depreciating currency makes it harder to pay off foreign debts and leads to higher prices on imported goods and lower returns on exports.

[Saradain]

I can actually agree with that as there's like what, 200 deaths for a couple of days of fighting and hundreds of kilometers of advancement.
Russia is pretty much rolling over Ukraine and their soldiers are surrendering.

Rolling over backwards more like while entire Ukraine is united and the civilized world is backing them. Russian shills being shills.

[zealo]

What is RT?

A propaganda wing of the russian government.

[Easo]

The ruble exchange rate will make it even worse. The Russia Centra Bank actually intervene and set the ruble exchange rate at 97.7688 per Euro. The Chinese likely does not want to get paid in ruble.

Oh yeah. Short term - Russia will bleed cash trying to keep the rouble from falling too much. It will be worse because some of cash reserves they have are now going to be frozen, something about 20% held in West? They have ~640 billion, IIRC half of these are dollars and euros. And China will want those, or yuans.

Heyyyy, this reminds me @Shalcker, I know you are banned, but you and Yadrionich really loved to talk about cash reserves Russia has. I wonder how great they will be looking in a year?

I can actually agree with that as there's like what, 200 deaths for a couple of days of fighting and hundreds of kilometers of advancement.
Russia is pretty much rolling over Ukraine and their soldiers are surrendering.

1. More, much more. It's is just basic logic, considering the scale. Ukraine is BIG, your hundreds of square km's are mostly forests.
2. No one defends every km of the land - you fall back to defendable positions, rivers, valleys, hills, etc. It also gives time for your troops to react, instead of getting caught at the border.
3. They have been stuck at Kiev and Kharkiv, plus the main Donbas frontline. They also have not collapsed even with Russia generally controlling the skies. That is not the definition of rolling over.

[Draco-Onis]

That's excatly why Russia has been planning for this for years. They have, I beleive, the 4th largest foriegn currency reserve in the world.

That would last them 2-3 years normally but with all the restrictions it will probably last 1-2 years the sanctions come with added cost even with foreign dollars.

[Elegiac]

1. More, much more. It's is just basic logic, considering the scale. Ukraine is BIG, your hundreds of square km's are mostly forests.
2. No one defends every km of the land - you fall back to defendable positions, rivers, valleys, hills, etc. It also gives time for your troops to react, instead of getting caught at the border.
3. They have been stuck at Kiev and Kharkiv, plus the main Donbas frontline. They also have not collapsed even with Russia generally controlling the skies. That is not the definition of rolling over.

This.

"Only 200 deaths" (assuming the number is correct, which it probably is not) sounds small, until you remember that the US only suffered 150 combat fatalities during the entire First Gulf War. When you take into account that Russia is conducting operations in a neighboring country, it underscores that this is in fact a poor showing of Russia's military capabilities. It underscores how little of a conventional threat it actually poses to NATO or China for that matter - all it has going for it in that regard is its nuclear arsenal. And speaking of US nonsense in the Middle East, we also have the Second Gulf War (i.e. Iraq) to point to as an example of how even a swift victory by regular military forces means fuck all when tallied against the financial and human costs of occupation - and that was against minimal civilian resistance at first.

There are no winners in this situation. Russia's effectively turned Ukraine into their own private money pit, to say nothing of the impacts of sanctions as well as how China is very obviously going to use said sanctions as leverage to exploit them. This entire affair is a manifest act of folly on the Kremlin's part, even if they achieve their goals in Ukraine. Plain and simple.

[alexw]

That's excatly why Russia has been planning for this for years. They have, I beleive, the 4th largest foriegn currency reserve in the world.


Russian central bank steps in to prop up rouble and avert market collapse

Not for long. Can't prop up the ruble if no one will make trades with you.

https://archive.fo/GELkP

[Fugus]

Not for long. Can't prop up the ruble if no one will make trades with you.

https://archive.fo/GELkP

Semi Off Topic but what is archive.fo?

I try to open the link and it gives it fails to.

[Bluespiderman57]

That would last them 2-3 years normally but with all the restrictions it will probably last 1-2 years the sanctions come with added cost even with foreign dollars.

Yep, plus whoever they do get to do business with them have all the incentive to gouge the shit out of them.

[Elegiac]

Semi Off Topic but what is archive.fo?

I try to open the link and it gives it fails to.

Web Archive to avoid WSJ paywalls. Text below:

The U.S. is weighing additional sanctions on Russia’s central bank as it discusses a series of increasingly severe economic penalties in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The people said the U.S. hasn’t yet made a decision on whether and how to expand sanctions against Russia’s central bank, adding that the Biden administration is discussing the issue with allies in Europe.

Broadening sanctions on the central bank would be a major blow to Moscow. It holds a formidable war chest of more than $630 billion in reserves. Those reserves—composed of gold, bonds, deposits and securities denominated in foreign currencies—are critical for Russia’s efforts to halt the ruble’s depreciation and slow inflation from the currency’s weakness.

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, the Obama administration banned U.S. firms from buying debt from the central bank as part of its broader financial pressure campaign against Moscow. Those sanctions fueled a depreciation of the ruble and exposed the vulnerability of Russia’s dollar-denominated assets.

The Treasury Department on Tuesday expanded those sanctions to include central bank debt traded in the secondary markets, where intermediary institutions sell central bank bonds.

To guard against a renewed U.S. sanctions campaign, the central bank had begun to shift away from reserves in the western-denominated currencies that comprise most global trade and finance. Still, the U.S. can levy powerful sanctions on the Russian central bank that sidestep the bank’s move, providing the U.S. and its allies with additional leverage over Russia’s economy.

Among its options to expand sanctions on the Russian central bank, the administration could ban any dollar transactions—and allies might complement with similar action against euro, pound and yen trading. Such a step could hobble the central bank’s ability to sell its foreign currency reserves. Another option could be a full blacklisting that freezes any assets held in U.S. jurisdictions—and other countries’ jurisdictions where allies join Washington in the move—and prohibit any transactions. That could hit not only the bank’s currency-stabilization operations but also the transactions critical for the country’s international trade.

So yes; even if the Ruble gets additional backing from Russia's central bank, there are still plenty of ways to hurt it.

Inb4 they peg the Ruble to BTC or some other shit. Rofl.

[Corvus]

Take with a grain of salt but Bellingcat is reporting chatter and leaks from within the Russian military are saying that the High Command is demanding Kyiv be taken by Monday over the objections of the airborne forces who say that could only be done with heavy loss of life.

They also say while they normally wouldn't trust the sources, it also matches Kremlin insider sources and what is known of Russian plans and Putin's desires.

[alexw]

Semi Off Topic but what is archive.fo?

I try to open the link and it gives it fails to.

It lets you get around paywalls. The original article is this.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s...nk-11645903899

[Vampiregenesis]

Every night seems about the same, the russians are pushing and failing. Can they keep doing this forever until they win?

Do Ukrainians "turtle" inside the center of Kyiv denying Russians a passage?

Don't get me wrong but based on the info that I read, I feel this will end up into a tragedy for the Russians, I don't understand those of you who claim that Kyiv will fall, where do you base this opinion.

[P for Pancetta]

Every night seems about the same, the russians are pushing and failing. Can they keep doing this forever until they win?

Do Ukrainians "turtle" inside the center of Kyiv denying Russians a passage?

Don't get me wrong but based on the info that I read, I feel this will end up into a tragedy for the Russians, I don't understand those of you who claim that Kyiv will fall, where do you base this opinion.

From what I've heard the fighting is going on 16miles or km outside of Kyiv/Kiev.

It's a tragedy, they don't believe that a lot of young Russian men have already died for this pointless war. Because they don't believe what international media and Intelligence agencies are reporting is real. It's only real when Russia comes with an official statement.

[alexw]

That would last them 2-3 years normally but with all the restrictions it will probably last 1-2 years the sanctions come with added cost even with foreign dollars.

Yeah about that....

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/14...htmode%3Dfalse

BREAKING: European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada, U.S. announce they will disconnect certain Russian banks from Swift and will take restrictive measures to prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves to undermine sanctions.

[zealo]

Every night seems about the same, the russians are pushing and failing. Can they keep doing this forever until they win?

Do Ukrainians "turtle" inside the center of Kyiv denying Russians a passage?

Don't get me wrong but based on the info that I read, I feel this will end up into a tragedy for the Russians, I don't understand those of you who claim that Kyiv will fall, where do you base this opinion.

Kyiv could fall eventually with concerted Russian efforts to take it, no one should be denying that, but if Ukraine is intent on actually holding onto it and fighting for it, an urban area of that size were never going to fall in 3 days.

[Kaleredar]

Every night seems about the same, the russians are pushing and failing. Can they keep doing this forever until they win?

Do Ukrainians "turtle" inside the center of Kyiv denying Russians a passage?

Don't get me wrong but based on the info that I read, I feel this will end up into a tragedy for the Russians, I don't understand those of you who claim that Kyiv will fall, where do you base this opinion.

I mean, "falling" in that it's captured because they forced a surrender probably isn't going to happen.

"Falling" because Russia blew it to bits and then sent their soldiers into a meat grinder until every last standing Ukranian defender has been killed? That's what's more likely meant.

[Easo]

Every night seems about the same, the russians are pushing and failing. Can they keep doing this forever until they win?

Do Ukrainians "turtle" inside the center of Kyiv denying Russians a passage?

Don't get me wrong but based on the info that I read, I feel this will end up into a tragedy for the Russians, I don't understand those of you who claim that Kyiv will fall, where do you base this opinion.

You mean the basic reality about the forces each side possess and what it means in the long term? At the end of next week city will have issues with hunger, probably sooner. Services are mostly still working, except garbage collection (so says the internet), shops and drugstores are mostly empty. For obvious reasons no one really wants to go to a city half way under siege and fill stockpiles... There are 3 million people, it is gonna get ugly.

Current status - Russia holds outskirts at the north, left side of the river, rest is under Ukrainian control. Attempts to continue and cut off the city further around the left side of the river have failed so far, debatable how strong they were. On the north-east side Russia is trying to gun for the right side of the river both from the half-encircled Chernihiv in the north and from the east along the highways from Konotep and Summy (both of which are fully encircled).

[Bakis]

Yeah about that....

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/14...htmode%3Dfalse

"Some" banks, not sure why we play softball. Its clear Putler doesnt care and accounted for it.
Ban them all.