Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Rasulis]

Ukraine now have access to Starlink. Making it very difficult for Russia to cut of internet access.

[Zantos]

Two? This is turning into a pyhrric victory at a rapid rate if true.

I don't think Russia will be victorious. They have the world against their actions. I just hope it ends soon. There is no logical reason for him to have tried this.

[SAY HER NAME]

And they have 650 billion dollars worth of reasons to do it all they need is plausible deniability, my point is if Iran, north korea can do it so can Russia. It's just going to be extremely expensive the better question is if regular people around the world and the EU can handle the fallout. The energy market is not going to take this well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39197677

Memory refresher.

[Elegiac]

When the check doesn't get there SWIFTly.

President Putin, you’ve made your point. Before it’s too late, stop the attack now. I have both Ukrainian and Russian friends and know that they have aloha—respect and love—for each other like brothers and sisters.

Wondering how many other Russian assets are going to start coming out of the woodwork now that their payments are getting cut off.

[Biglog]

The scary part is what Russia's next move is. The worry is that they will start employing tactics like they've used in Syria (which should have got more global attention) like using guided munitions or thermobaric weapons on homes and apartment buildings, using barrel bombs, or randomly firing off artillery at civilian areas to cause civilian casualties in an attempt to scare the populous into submission. If they do that, they will turn Kyiv and all Ukrainian cities into looking like 1944 Stalingrad rubble like many Syrian cities became, and Russia will completely be outcast from the world as war criminals. I hope this the not the path they go down, but Marco Rubio has been in the loop on things and tweeted something ominous tonight hinting that Russia may be going down this kind of very dark path.

[Edge-]

When the check doesn't get there SWIFTly.



Wondering how many other Russian assets are going to start coming out of the woodwork now that their payments are getting cut off.

I'm sure Putin is just scrolling through his Twitter feet, waiting to hear from Tulsi Gabbard.

[Rasulis]

Sanctioned Russian TV Host Cries About Losing His Italian Villa

Lots of Russian oligarch properties in Florida also. Time to confiscate those also? Convert them into affordable housing.

[Elegiac]

The scary part is what Russia's next move is. The worry is that they will start employing tactics like they've used in Syria (which should have got more global attention) like using guided munitions or thermobaric weapons on homes and apartment buildings, using barrel bombs, or randomly firing off artillery at civilian areas to cause civilian casualties in an attempt to scare the populous into submission. If they do that, they will turn Kyiv and all Ukrainian cities into looking like 1944 Stalingrad rubble like many Syrian cities became, and Russia will completely be outcast from the world as war criminals. I hope this the not the path they go down, but Marco Rubio has been in the loop on things and tweeted something ominous tonight hinting that Russia may be going down this kind of very dark path.

There are already reports that artillery struck a children's cancer hospital in Okhmadyt leading to multiple casualties.

Bellingcat is also compiling evidence of cluster munition deployment.

[Kallisto]

Sanctioned Russian TV Host Cries About Losing His Italian Villa

Lots of Russian oligarch properties in Florida also. Time to confiscate those also? Convert them into affordable housing.

Same in London, strip them all of their flats and apartments. They're the ones who keep making all the prices go from semi-affordable to "Oh you're making £50k a year. Nope London is too expensive for you."

[Fantomen]

I don't think Russia will be victorious. There is no logical reason for him to have tried this.

Russia can win the war but not the peace, there wil be constant insurgence and rebellion in Ukraine, and west will be more then happy to provide wepon/suport to the resistance movement.

Putin have assasinated so many in Russia, so he must continue to ride the tiger, there are no option to retire and live in peace. Putin have (de facto) ultimate power in Russia, and hence he (de facto) have the ulimate responsibility for Russias horribel economic problem and a covid crise. So he was "forced" to make somthing drastic to remain popular, a fast victorius war would increase his popularity, but Ukraine did not roll over as the last time.

- - - Updated - - -

life will find a way, as will money. transactions are still possible. that's vastly different from what was expected, i.e. banning every single bank from it.

Putin threatens the west with war if west cut Russia from SWIFT, that will tell you how critical SWIFT is for the Russian economy.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

backing the blue and yellow here

[Kaleredar]

Putin threatens the west with war if west cut Russia from SWIFT, that will tell you how critical SWIFT is for the Russian economy.

He's in the wrong position to be making more enemies right now.

[D Luniz]

Russia can win the war but not the peace, there wil be constant insurgence and rebellion in Ukraine, and west will be more then happy to provide wepon/suport to the resistance movement.

Putin have assasinated so many in Russia, so he must continue to ride the tiger, there are no option to retire and live in peace. Putin have (de facto) ultimate power in Russia, and hence he (de facto) have the ulimate responsibility for Russias horribel economic problem and a covid crise. So he was "forced" to make somthing drastic to remain popular, a fast victorius war would increase his popularity, but Ukraine did not roll over as the last time.

- - - Updated - - -



Putin threatens the west with war if west cut Russia from SWIFT, that will tell you how critical SWIFT is for the Russian economy.

reminds me of some of the people here when they get kicked off platforms
"let us be violent assholes or we'll be MORE violent and assholish!"

[Marcellus1986]

Haven’t seen Shalcker, Lord of Potatoes in a while. Did he finally get drafted to go die in Ukraine like the rest of the troll farmers?

[Xarkan]

Haven’t seen Shalcker, Lord of Potatoes in a while. Did he finally get drafted to go die in Ukraine like the rest of the troll farmers?

Probably becuse he is banned
https://www.mmo-champion.com/members/718620-Shalcker

[Breccia]

Lots of Russian oligarch properties in Florida also.

I wonder how many were sold to them by Trump? Eh, probably zero, the article would have mentioned it otherwise.

Also, in the ongoing effort to win the hearts of the Russian people, Putin arrests thousands of Russians for protesting the Ukraine invasion.

yikes, China is going to make a fuckton of money ripping off Russia

This brings up a good point I'm ashamed I hadn't thought of earlier. Yes, there will be China and other countries willing to do business with Russia. But we all know what happens when you choke out supply -- price goes up. Putin might have money, but Russia is a deteriorating state. A quick glance around a few sites says China is Russia's #1 trade partner, but the US, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, South Korea and Japan are all on the top ten list. Assuming each of those countries have the balls to cut their trade in half, and assuming the rest of the world's opinions are roughly proportional to the top 10's, Russia loses 28% of their imports.

That can't be easy to deal with. And as Draco-Onis and @Bluespiderman57 pointed out, they're about to get hit with some nasty overdraft fees.

I'm curious how OPEC feels about this. Remember, Russia and the Saudis had a "little" disagreement during Trump's tenure over oil prices, and Putin is waging this war (amongst other reasons) for control of one of the two major pipelines out of his country. This war could be a gift to Saudis, who will be happy to rake in the higher prices without any effort made on their part. But a bigger gift would be, if somehow by complete coincidence I'm sure, during the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the pipeline Putin loves so much were to explode. "That could be anyone's explosion," the Saudis could say, shrugging. "Have you checked to see if it was food poisoning?" But that's just one country. I don't want to guess how the others would feel about an oil-exporting country securing/increasing their share by military force, instead of the free market and supply/demand. Oh, wait, I totally want to guess, and I'm guessing they won't care for it much. We'll find out eventually. It's not like the invasion that just happened can make Saudi oil magically appear in French cars overnight.

If Putin wants to wage a war that kills innocent people for money, on a scale that makes even the US cringe, they should expect everyone else to wage war with their own. That's not an arms race he can handle, or more to the point, not an arms race his civilians can handle and I'm skeptical his oligarch friends are fans, either. Putin himself probably has a stockpile of US$ and will personally be fine. Until someone Terenas Menethil's him, at least.

[Biglog]

One other thing that's become clear is that this invasion has been planned for a long time. It leaked today that Russian military leaders got their orders over a month before the invasion, and Kadyrov was told over a week before that it was happening. It puts into perspective how deceptive Russian negotiations were over the past month+ when the decision had already been made. The "D-day" style invasion Z/V, etc. markers seemed obvious and in hindsight were a clear indication as well of a decision made well ahead of time. Lukashenko I'm sure was told well in advance as well. And he had just the week prior mentioned the possibility of hosting nuclear weapons, when likely already knew what was coming.

For the better of Belarus it looks like he opted against that today. One quick graphic showing the predicted nuclear blast radius anywhere near silo areas in a conflict would change his mind. There's a reason China puts it's in the desert, Russia's in Siberia, ours in the boonies...hundreds of miles around them won't have a chance. Granted if god forbid that apocalyptic day ever comes, there's probably something to be said for being the first to go...

[Voidwielder]

The degree of the absolute cynicism to propose talks in Minsk. The degree of absolute deception to propose this.

https://twitter.com/r_netsec/status/1497797398898176000

[Jessicka]

Same in London, strip them all of their flats and apartments. They're the ones who keep making all the prices go from semi-affordable to "Oh you're making £50k a year. Nope London is too expensive for you."

MPs are talking about it. That said, they’ll probably just get snapped up by Chinese investors instead.

Also people talking about China and Russia being ‘allies’, I’ve never really felt China was into having friends or allies, they’re opportunists, just pursuing its own interests and sharing them where they align. If dumping Russia and ripping them off becomes the better option, that’s what they’ll do. They might drag their heels on things while they work things out and set up systems to do it, but that’s the direction of travel they’ll take.

India did the same, they were just much more open about that being their reasoning.

[Voidwielder]

Their supply lines are absolutely stretched.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497853526881546241