Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mayhem]

Can't do worse, at the moment.

Maybe it's a language issue. By "can't rely" I mean that Europe or better the EU is not robust enough to act as one and therefore it neither can act fast enough nor with one voice. Fighting Russian influence is one thing, but suddenly having to fend off US influence as imagined by the Heritage Foundation on top is different. I am just trying to be realistic about all of this shit. And I truly hope the fascist forces within Europe aren't strong enough already to cause enough damage to tip the scale.

[PhaelixWW]

Maybe it's a language issue. By "can't rely" I mean that Europe or better the EU is not robust enough to act as one and therefore it neither can act fast enough nor with one voice. Fighting Russian influence is one thing, but suddenly having to fend off US influence as imagined by the Heritage Foundation on top is different. I am just trying to be realistic about all of this shit. And I truly hope the fascist forces within Europe aren't strong enough already to cause enough damage to tip the scale.

I don't think you have to worry too much about needing to fend off US influence.

[Nymrohd]

Maybe it's a language issue. By "can't rely" I mean that Europe or better the EU is not robust enough to act as one and therefore it neither can act fast enough nor with one voice. Fighting Russian influence is one thing, but suddenly having to fend off US influence as imagined by the Heritage Foundation on top is different. I am just trying to be realistic about all of this shit. And I truly hope the fascist forces within Europe aren't strong enough already to cause enough damage to tip the scale.

So far Trump has been very good for European anti-fascism. But I fear it is temporary and as more and more money gets thrown in and a global depression is likely inevitable yet again fascism will get even stronger because the status quo sucks and the left cannot convince anyone (Because no one actually tried to fix what's wrong).

[Gorsameth]

Its most likely the assault brigades again. These guys are not trained to sit around defending, they are trained to push forward and having them not doing that somewhere is a waste. Its what a lot of the critics of the Kursk incursion didn't really understand. Anyways, I expect to hear more about this in the next 24 hours. Zelensky lost one bargaining chip, so hes out to grab another, and teach russia they can't afford to defend a border that large and still have the manpower to continue to invade your neighbour.

News headline from CNN.
For Vladimir Putin, Russia’s position in the world is personal. Here’s what he really wants


I personally find this incorrect, since what this invasion has cost russia in terms of reputation, human lives, and money, they really don't have a lot of influence around the world left any more.

Putin wanting to essentially recreate the USSR and be a global superpower is not a revelation. It was pretty obvious by his actions for decades at this point probably.

It ofcourse horribly failed when Ukraine didn't collapse immediately but that doesn't make it incorrect. It just means Putin horribly miscalculated.

[En Sabah Nur]

Trump: I believe, we're going to pretty soon have a full ceasefire, and then we're going to have a contract.

And the contract's being negotiated, the contract in terms of dividing up the lands

Fuuuuuck you, Trump.

[Specialka]

Putin wanting to essentially recreate the USSR and be a global superpower is not a revelation. It was pretty obvious by his actions for decades at this point probably.

It ofcourse horribly failed when Ukraine didn't collapse immediately but that doesn't make it incorrect. It just means Putin horribly miscalculated.

Nah, not the USSR. He wants to go for the Great Russian Empire (around the Catherine II era).

[Poopymonster]

Whether that’s true or not Europe best not throw up its hand and say “well the US didn’t do anything, nobody deposed Trump… we’re all out of ideas. Shame.” And not for the US’ sake, and not just for Ukraine’s sake… but for their own sake as well.

Cuz the next stop in Putin’s little bastardized speed run of Hitler’s expansionism isn’t the US, it’s Europe.

He can put off the US since it's effectively neutralized.

[alach]

Progress? Hard to say.

US says it has agreed sea ceasefire with Russia, Ukraine to ensure 'safe navigation in Black Sea'; will 'develop measures' to stop energy strikes

In the Ukraine-specific readout, the White House also said the US confirmed it “remains committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.”

The Russia-specific document noted that the US would help “restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.”

Pretty hard to take at face value when two of the top liars in the world are involved, but I am cautiously optimistic.

[Kaleredar]

Progress? Hard to say.

US says it has agreed sea ceasefire with Russia, Ukraine to ensure 'safe navigation in Black Sea'; will 'develop measures' to stop energy strikes


Pretty hard to take at face value when two of the top liars in the world are involved, but I am cautiously optimistic.

Is Trump even allowed by Putin to say “forcibly transferred Ukrainian children?”

I mean I know they’re wussing out of calling it kidnapping, but that sounds an awful lot like starting to actually blame Russia for something.

[Mazza]

Progress? Hard to say.

US says it has agreed sea ceasefire with Russia, Ukraine to ensure 'safe navigation in Black Sea'; will 'develop measures' to stop energy strikes


Pretty hard to take at face value when two of the top liars in the world are involved, but I am cautiously optimistic.

Looks like the US is going to pressure the world to lift sanctions on Russia, including on payment systems. That should not be on the table unless Russia wants to actually withdraw.

[Mayhem]

Looks like the US is going to pressure the world to lift sanctions on Russia, including on payment systems. That should not be on the table unless Russia wants to actually withdraw.

Pressure the world? How?

[Bwgmon]

Pressure the world? How?

Something something tariffs, I bet.

[alach]

Too bad for him, mr trump does not get to presure the world to do anything anymore. He has already threatened tariffs repeatedly enough the world is moving away from depending on such an unreliable and hostile partner. His demands will be met with a look a parent gives a screaming baby.
Maybe this is how you bankrupt a casino, but this is diplomacy, world politics, and you need to show some respect.

Germany's military rebirth is Europe’s best bet against Putin

And another one for extra emphasis;

In Canada, I saw how Trump is ripping North America apart – and how hard its bond will be to repair

With the US president now warmer to Moscow than to Ottawa, it’s little surprise Canadians I met rolled their eyes at the decline of the special relationship

[thilicen]

Something something tariffs, I bet.

lol nobody gives a fuck

[Mazza]

Pressure the world? How?

Prob more tariffs threats and "we will pull back our NATO deployments in Europe" stuff. It's not like the US has lost all their leverage under Trump, though all the goodwill they have gathered is pretty much gone.

I also want to be clear that while I expect the Trump admin to try this, I also expect them to fail to change anything meaningful through it.

Edit: According to Zelensky the ceasefire in the Black Sea is NOT dependant on the lifting of any sanctions and Lavrov is lying. Both sides are also already accusing eachother of breaking it.

[Odinfrost]

Prob more tariffs threats and "we will pull back our NATO deployments in Europe" stuff. It's not like the US has lost all their leverage under Trump, though all the goodwill they have gathered is pretty much gone.

Considering the Trump admin has already threatened NATO troop withdrawal, even that has less of a bite because it makes Europe prepared that it might happen no matter what anyway.

[Corvus]

Considering russia says the ceasefire doest start until after sanctions are lifted, and they haven't, how can they claim Ukraine beoke a ceasefire they also claim hasn't started?

Oh, right, russia. That answers everything.

[diller]

Prob more tariffs threats and "we will pull back our NATO deployments in Europe" stuff. It's not like the US has lost all their leverage under Trump

Oh they totally have, their troops can just fuck off, they aren't there to protect us anyway.

[Deus Mortis]

Sadly it is not looking all that great for Ukraine. As the massive support Ukraine needs now seems far away.
https://archive.ph/DVPDp
Europe Talks Tough on Military Spending, but Unity Is Fracturing
European leaders are struggling to find the money and the political will to replace the bulk of the U.S. contribution to Ukraine and to their own defense.

European leaders have gotten the message from Washington about doing more for their own defense and for Ukraine, too. They are talking tough when it comes to supporting Ukraine and about protecting their own borders, and they are standing up to a demanding and even hostile Trump administration.

But there is an inevitable gap between talk and action, and unity is fracturing already, especially when it comes to spending and borrowing money in a period of low growth and high debt.

The Dutch and others are not fans of raising collective debt for defense. Keeping Hungary on board is ever more difficult.
And when the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced a plan for billions more for the military, called “ReArm Europe,” two of the bloc’s largest countries, Italy and Spain, thought that was all a bit aggressive. So now the plan has been rebranded as “Readiness 2030.”

That’s a year after Donald J. Trump is no longer expected to be president. But it is also a realistic understanding that Europe’s new commitment to self-reliance will take time, billions of euros, political deftness and cooperation with the United States.

chief foreign and security official for the European Union, has been a forceful advocate for supporting Ukraine as a first line of European defense against an aggressive, militarized Russia.

But it has been a rocky start for Ms. Kallas. Her effort to get the E.U. to provide up to 40 billion euros (more than $43 billion) to Ukraine through a small, fixed percentage levy on each country’s national income has gone nowhere.

Her backup proposal, for an added €5 billion as a first step toward providing Ukraine two million artillery shells this year, was also rejected by Italy, Slovakia and even France, an E.U. official said, speaking anonymously in accordance with diplomatic practice. The countries insisted that contributions to Ukraine remain voluntary, bilateral and not required by Brussels.

And her recent response to Mr. Trump’s effort to push Ukraine into a cease-fire without security assurances rubbed many the wrong way, both in Europe and Washington, as dangerously premature. “The free world needs a new leader,” she wrote on X. “It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”
But in fact the Europeans are working hard to respond to Mr. Trump in a convincing fashion. Ms. von der Leyen sold her rearmament or readiness plan with a headline figure of €800 billion. But only €150 billion of that is real money, available as long-term loans for countries that wish to use it for the military. The rest simply represents a notional figure — a four-year permission from the bloc for countries to borrow even more for military purposes out of their own national budgets.

For a country like Germany, which has low debt, that is likely to work, especially now that the next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, got Parliament to agree to loosen its own debt rules to allow for huge spending on the military, civilian infrastructure and climate.

But for countries like Italy and Spain, which can feel far away from Russia and have their own fiscal problems, that may not be an easy choice. France, despite President Emmanuel Macron’s strong words about European “strategic autonomy” and his desire to lead the Continent, is itself deeply indebted, and piling on more debt is politically and economically hazardous.

France, too, is insisting on a high percentage of European content and manufacture for any weapons bought with the new loans, and is so far working to keep American, British and Canadian companies from participating. And other issues are intruding; an E.U. effort to draft a defense agreement with Britain is being held up by Paris over squabbles about fisheries.

But Europe will spend considerably more on defense, as it has known it must, said Ian Lesser, director of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund. “The advent of the Trump administration has given history a shove,” he said. “We’re not in a linear environment, with a linear spending trajectory.”
On NATO, too, major European countries are beginning to talk seriously about how to replace the vital American role in the alliance — both in terms of sophisticated arms and political and military leadership. But there is little desire to accelerate any rupture with Washington, since any such transition is likely to take five or even 10 years.

Now, 23 of 27 E.U. states are also NATO members, including about 95 percent of E.U. citizens, and NATO has its own requirements for new military spending. European states are discussing what they can propose to Mr. Trump at the next NATO summit in June, in The Hague, that will ensure American cooperation in any transition.

But while Trump officials have privately reassured Europeans that the U.S. president supports NATO, will retain the American nuclear umbrella over Europe and remains committed to collective defense, Mr. Trump’s views are famously changeable, and he persists in viewing NATO as a club where members pay for American protection.

In his first term, he often mused about leaving NATO while saying the United States will defend only countries that pay enough for defense. This month, he repeated that warning. He has demanded that NATO members pay up to 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense, significantly more than the United States, which spends about 3.4 percent of G.D.P. on its global military.

NATO officials want to set a new spending goal at the summit in June, but one closer to 3.5 percent of G.D.P., up from 2 percent now.
Reinforcing concerns in Europe that the United States may no longer be a reliable partner was the extraordinary discussion among top Trump administration officials of the American strike on Yemen, revealed by Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic, who was inadvertently added to the group chat on the messaging app Signal.
The discussion was replete with comments like this one from Vice President JD Vance: “I just hate bailing out the Europeans again.” And there were boastful messages about finding a way to get Europe to pay for the operation — but nothing about China, which benefits hugely from the trade passing through the straits near Yemen, including much of its oil imports and its exports to Europe.

Mr. Trump’s sudden suggestion last week that a future American fighter plane might be sold to allies in a downgraded version has also reinforced these concerns.
Prompted by Mr. Trump’s stated intention to leave Ukraine’s defense to Europe, Britain and France are working on a proposal for a European “reassurance force” to be on the ground in Ukraine once a peace settlement is reached between Kyiv and Moscow, if one ever is. But so far, no other E.U. country has publicly volunteered to serve in such a force, which is largely undefined and unfinanced, and which Russia has consistently rejected.

Mr. Macron is to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Wednesday night. Then on Thursday, he is scheduled to be host at another meeting of this “coalition of the willing,” guest list unclear. But Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, called the idea “simplistic” and “a posture and a pose.”
Efforts at creating a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine continued, with the announcement on Tuesday that the two countries had agreed to stop attacks on ships in the Black Sea. But even that agreement was subject to a Russian demand that Western countries drop restrictions on Russian agricultural exports.

Ms. von der Leyen talks of making Ukraine “a steel porcupine,” too difficult for Russia to swallow in the future, an echo of an early plan for Ukrainian defense drafted by a former NATO secretary general, Anders Rasmussen.
But even a steel porcupine is not a security guarantee, and it implies an endless commitment to supporting Ukraine.
Prime Minister Bart De Wever of Belgium summed up the European problem nicely last week. He praised Mr. Macron for drumming up a “coalition of the willing” to boost military aid for Ukraine as U.S. support dwindles. But he said he had pleaded for a bit more structure in the group.
“We are willing — but willing to do what, exactly?” he asked.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ps-2025-03-26/
Europe’s talks on Ukraine security shift from sending troops

PARIS/BRUSSELS, March 26 (Reuters) - European efforts to create security arrangements for Ukraine are shifting from sending troops to other alternatives as they face political and logistical constraints, and the prospect of Russia and the United States opposing their plans, officials said.
France, which has been working closely with Britain to come up with options, will host 30 leaders and delegations from around 30 countries on Thursday, part of what has become a "coalition of the willing" to try and flesh out some ideas.

But while London and Paris have been working for weeks on a plan to send thousands of troops to Ukraine to help safeguard a future ceasefire, diplomats say there is growing acceptance that sending such a force is not the likeliest outcome.
"They are taking a step back from ground troops and trying to re-dimension what they were doing to something that could be more sensible," said one European diplomat.
Said another: "When Ukraine was in a better position, the idea of sending troops appealed. But now, with the situation on the ground and the U.S administration as it is, it's not very sexy."

While France agreed to another 2bil and Germany to 3bil, Germany's long term spending is not going to be enough for Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2025-03-19/

For the years 2026 to 2029, Kukies plans to authorise commitments of 8.252 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to more than 11 billion euros.

Total military spending up to the end of 2024 has been 139 bil.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-us-r.../33337524.html

[Wilian]

Europe dropping the ball is on the par of the course.