Russian invasion of Ukraine

[alach]

Yeah, still a ways away, but did you see several countries talking about cancelling F-35 orders and are eyeing the Swede's Gripen?
It's a start, and in a big part thanks to trump.

[Elder Millennial]

Yeah, still a ways away, but did you see several countries talking about cancelling F-35 orders and are eyeing the Swede's Gripen?
It's a start, and in a big part thanks to trump.

Yes and no.

The problem with buying Gripens or Rafales or Typhoons right now is that as good as those jets are, they are just too fucking old. Once you buy them, you are kind of locked into those things for the next 15 to 20 years. And to be honest Europe REALLY shouldn't get locked into 4 and 4.5 gen jets NOW.

Some countries don't have a choice. Like the UK. They purpose built their carriers for the F35. They finished their carriers before the F35 was even ready for delivery. They just don't have a choice. It's either F35 VTOLs or going back to Harriers...which are simply ANCIENT.

Some countries are flying 35 year old F18 and F16, or God forbid are still flying MiGs. As many rounds of modernization you do they air frames are just getting to the point where they are at the end of their life spans and maintenance costs are ballooning to the point of unsustainable. Others, have donated their jets to the Ukrainians and need to replace them with something, yesterday, so they have to buy SOMETHING, in which case Gripens or Rafales or Typhoons are a better option than the F35.

But if you can afford to invest into something you want to fly for 30 years, this is the time to start a serious Gen 6 program. Get something in the air in 15 or so years.

[Wilian]

Yes and no.

The problem with buying Gripens or Rafales or Typhoons right now is that as good as those jets are, they are just too fucking old.

The new Gripen they've been marketing for sale isn't yet on markets so it's not exactly old. Furthermore, "old" and "less capable" are still far better options than unusable and about all these jets are still more than capable of taking on Russia's fleet.

[Elder Millennial]

The new Gripen they've been marketing for sale isn't yet on markets so it's not exactly old. Furthermore, "old" and "less capable" are still far better options than unusable and about all these jets are still more than capable of taking on Russia's fleet.

I agree. If you need to buy something today any of the 3 major European jet models Gripen, Rafale, Typhoon are a good option. Again, if you need to buy something today.

But if you're France/UK/Spain/Italy/Germany, and yes Sweden, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Denmark etc (basically any of the European countries with deeper pockets who can spend 100m to 150m Euro per jet) you need to start looking for a Gen 6 jet TODAY. The lag between design-first flight-first production model for a modern jet is about 15 years, realistically.

That's 2040. By 2040 the Gripen will be a 44 year old platform, the Rafale will be 39 years old and the Typhoon will be 36 years old.

Add to that a 5+ year lag before they are rolled out in any serious numbers.

Yes all those platforms will undergo dozens of upgrades and generations, but again, there's only so much you can do with a design that old.

[Corvus]

The Europeans are working on 6th gen fighters. Japan, the UK and Italy are working on the GCAP, which started as 2 projects that merged, and is due in 2035. France, Germany and Spain are working on the NGF, due 2040.

The US hopes to have theirs by about 2030, while China is looking at 2035.

Other countries have said they are working on 6th gen as well, but they are further back, if they complete them at all.

[Wilian]

I agree. If you need to buy something today any of the 3 major European jet models Gripen, Rafale, Typhoon are a good option. Again, if you need to buy something today.

But if you're France/UK/Spain/Italy/Germany, and yes Sweden, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Denmark etc (basically any of the European countries with deeper pockets who can spend 100m to 150m Euro per jet) you need to start looking for a Gen 6 jet TODAY. The lag between design-first flight-first production model for a modern jet is about 15 years, realistically.

That's 2040. By 2040 the Gripen will be a 44 year old platform, the Rafale will be 39 years old and the Typhoon will be 36 years old.

Add to that a 5+ year lag before they are rolled out in any serious numbers.

Yes all those platforms will undergo dozens of upgrades and generations, but again, there's only so much you can do with a design that old.

We in Finland just got our F-35's deal done couple years back and first one from fleet of 64 is is going to be delivered this year so I doubt we will be looking for new jets in next 30 years or so. Alas, I hope hindsight does not doom our air security, especially in light of Bild's reveal from couple days ago that US in fact does have kill switches as part of deal with Germany.

[alach]

Too funny. Like the old adage, One man's trash is another man's treasure.
Literally from this week;

Official ceremony for Bulgarian Air Force’s first F-16

[Elder Millennial]

We in Finland just got our F-35's deal done couple years back and first one from fleet of 64 is is going to be delivered this year so I doubt we will be looking for new jets in next 30 years or so. Alas, I hope hindsight does not doom our air security, especially in light of Bild's reveal from couple days ago that US in fact does have kill switches as part of deal with Germany.

To be honest, I'd be more worried about sourcing spare parts for maintenance than I would be about the kill switch.

I can guarantee you that every country that bought them is now sandboxing the software and going through it with a fine tooth comb for having patches to deploy in an instant.

The spare parts problem is honestly much bigger.

- - - Updated - - -

Too funny. Like the old adage, One man's trash is another man's treasure.
Literally from this week;

Official ceremony for Bulgarian Air Force’s first F-16

The Bulgarians signed this contract in 2019, and were in talks for it for a while before.

Bulgaria is one of the last remaining EU/NATO countries flying SU25s and MiG29s.

They are simply not in the position financially or militarily to switch to a different contract. Even if they would have cancelled the contract yesterday, it would take them 2-3 years to sign a new one.

Also there's currently somewhat of a backlog on the deliveries for both Rafales and Typhoons, Rafale can't really scale up production any further, tho Airbus could probably churn out more Typhoons.

SAABs backlog on the Gripens is even worse, with deliveries running late both for the Cezches and Hungarians. On top of that SAAB just signed a contract about two weeks ago for an order for Colombia and they are in talks for a much bigger order for India.

So it's highly questionable whether Bulgaria could buy anything other than F16s right now. Their pockets are just not deep enough to switch contracts now and even if they would, there's really not that much they could buy, unless they buy refurbished hand-me-downs. And while that would be a stop gap solution in the interim, considering that all the F16s Ukraine got came out of European stocks, I am not sure there are any hand-me-downs they could buy.

[Yunru]

Sooooooooooo....... China is sending weapons to Russa to fight on Ukraine grounds. They said. But they havent shown the inteligence or any proff. They also help russans to produce weapons on russan ground.
Will see in next few days if America does something to china.

[Odinfrost]

Sooooooooooo....... China is sending weapons to Russa to fight on Ukraine grounds. They said. But they havent shown the inteligence or any proff. They also help russans to produce weapons on russan ground.
Will see in next few days if America does something to china.

Why would they? The president want Putin to win

[Corvus]

Ukraine says the outline of a minerals deal with the US has been signed.

[PhaelixWW]

Remember when Trump said that he would end the Russia/Ukraine war in 24 hours, even suggesting he would accomplish this before he was inaugurated?

Well...

<A Few Months Later...>

Reuters: US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says

U.S. President Donald Trump will walk away from trying to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal within days unless there are clear signs that a deal can be done, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday.

"We're not going to continue with this endeavour for weeks and months on end. So we need to determine very quickly now, and I'm talking about a matter of days, whether or not this is doable in the next few weeks," Rubio said in Paris after meeting European and Ukrainian leaders.

"If it's not possible, if we're so far apart that this is not going to happen, then I think the president is probably at a point where he's going to say, 'well, we're done'."

[Timester]

Orange Senile got tired of streaming the Nobel Peace Prize speedrunning.

[Odinfrost]

Remember when Trump said that he would end the Russia/Ukraine war in 24 hours, even suggesting he would accomplish this before he was inaugurated?

Well...

<A Few Months Later...>

Reuters: US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says

Wait. It takes time to try and broker peace when one side is protecting their home, and the other is an invader who will only relent once they've taken the entire nation of the first side.

[Timester]

Wait. It takes time to try and broker peace when one side is protecting their home, and the other is an invader who will only relent once they've taken the entire nation of the first side.

Pretty much what everyone told about Orange Senile's "Peace in 24 hours!" even before he was elected. And yet, he got elected.

[Corvus]

Trump taking his bat and ball and going home to sulk is exactly what pootie wants.

[PhaelixWW]

Trump taking his bat and ball and going home to sulk is exactly what pootie wants.

Honestly, Trump giving up on being "peacemaker" may be a good thing for Ukraine, instead.

None of us really thought a "peace" deal was going to be anywhere near good for Ukraine.

[alach]

So, I don't know. This is a hard one. Will giving up Crimea end the war? Will it allow Ukraine to keep the other 4 siezed territories? I doubt Putin will just let those go considering what is has cost him to take 2/3rds of them.

Trump administration ready to recognize Russian control of Crimea in framework to end Ukraine war, source says

The Trump administration is ready to recognize Russian control of Crimea as part of a proposal to help end to the war with Ukraine, according to an official familiar with the framework. The proposal would also put a ceasefire in place along the front lines of the war, the source said.

The framework was shared with European and Ukrainian officials who met in Paris yesterday, the source said. It was also communicated in a phone call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

There are still pieces of the framework to be filled out. The US plans to work with Europe and Ukraine on that next week in London, the source said.

The Trump administration is simultaneously planning another meeting between President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian officials to get Moscow on board with the overall US framework, the source said.

Remember: Russian forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and Moscow annexed the territory in a move considered illegal by a vast majority of the international community. The move presaged Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Also, will that change when the next admistration takes over to be more in step with the rest of the world. I have serious doubts about this, and according to rubio we will probably know one way or another by next week.

[Fugus]

@alach

Any peace deal with Russia that doesn’t include their admission into NATO or protection from them isn’t worth used toilet paper as everyone knows that Russia won’t honor it and will just use the time to regroup and do another push as soon as they think they can get away with it and everyone knows it.

And giving Crimea is just appeasement at this point. Russia is more likely to agree to this only to invade again before Trumps term is up with Trump sharing information and aid for them to help him do it. The fact we have China, North Korea and the USA trying to go to bat for Russia is just sad and shows just how far the US has fallen.

[Corvus]

Russia has made it repeatedly clear that the barest minimum they will accept is all 4 oblasts they have claimed (which are impossible for them to take), a new government acceptable to them, no new military aid to Ukraine, no admission to NATO and the Ukrainian military largely disbanded. They have refused to budge on that as a minimum.

When Trump talks of walking away, they aren't just talking the peace deal. They are referring to all support to Ukraine. There is even a report that us officials demanded to know why a European country was still supplying military aid to Ukraine.