Russian invasion of Ukraine

[alach]

I doubt it will really do anything. It will set up a fund to help with Ukraine's reconstruction, something that the EU has done a couple years ago.
I guess maybe the US will get some rare minerals in the future. Maybe.

"This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term," Bessent said in a U.S. Treasury Department press release.

The deal will not allow any "state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine" to profit from Ukraine's reconstruction, Bessent said.

Shortly before the deal was signed, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced the Ukrainian government had approved the agreement.

"Thanks to this agreement, we will be able to attract significant resources for reconstruction, start economic growth, and receive the latest technologies from partners and a strategic investor in the United States," Shmyhal said.

I imagine trump and his ilk will probably be long gone before there will be any results of this, but hey, it was a good photo-op.

[PhaelixWW]

I imagine trump and his ilk will probably be long gone before there will be any results of this, but hey, it was a good photo-op.

Maybe he'll get his own "Mission Accomplished" banner.

[Deus Mortis]

https://defence-blog.com/trump-admin...le-to-ukraine/
Trump administration approves first arms sale to Ukraine

President Donald Trump’s administration has reportedly approved its first weapons sale to Ukraine since the start of his second term, with plans to authorize direct commercial exports valued at $50 million or more.

The move was first reported by Kyiv Post, citing diplomatic sources, and later confirmed through congressional records.

According to the report, the U.S. administration formally notified Congress on April 30 of its intention to allow the sale of military goods to Ukraine under the Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) program. This mechanism permits U.S. defense companies to negotiate arms exports directly with foreign governments, pending approval from the State Department.

Kyiv Post said the proposed sale would include military-designated goods, technical data, and related defense services. The approval was made under the Arms Export Control Act, which mandates notification to Congress for defense sales exceeding certain thresholds.

Additional confirmation came from European Pravda, which cited documentation available on the official U.S. Congress website. A record listed an entry dated April 29, cataloged as EC-859, referencing a memo from the State Department’s legal office to the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

The memo notifies Congress of “a proposed license for the export of defense articles, including technical data, and defense services to Ukraine for an amount of $50 million or more,” in compliance with U.S. export control laws.

This transaction represents the first defense-related export authorization to Ukraine under President Trump’s current administration.

While details of the specific equipment or systems involved have not been disclosed, the timing suggests a shift toward greater military support amid ongoing regional instability.

Positive sign, saw a lot of articles stating the deal was just 50million, but saw other commenters saying that the law requires the approval if it goes over 50million. We might never find out how much this deal is actually worth but I hope it is in the high billions.

[NED funded]

I doubt it will really do anything. It will set up a fund to help with Ukraine's reconstruction, something that the EU has done a couple years ago.
I guess maybe the US will get some rare minerals in the future. Maybe.



I imagine trump and his ilk will probably be long gone before there will be any results of this, but hey, it was a good photo-op.

If you look up in a map the rare earth minerals are in the Russian controlled areas and IDK if there is enough concentration of them to be worth it. Cuz in mining its not only about the quantity but the concentration. If you have a lot but you need to process a lot more then its not worth it.

Its whatever tho. If this satisfies him then thats fine. The rest of his cult will eventually come around to it

[Deus Mortis]

Some maps

[Odinfrost]

So, is this a master play by Zelensky?
"Donald, you can get your minerals, but it requires that Russia gets the fuck out of my country."

[Gorsameth]

Not sure I would call it a 'master' play but yes. "Sure lets sign a deal that doesn't really give you anything to show I am willing to play ball and potentially keep the US invested for the short term until there is a change of government"

[alach]

Big news! JD vance said something true;

War in Ukraine not ending 'any time soon', Vance says

At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries And Tens Of Millions Of Casualties To Capture Ukraine

Russian forces managed to capture around 68 square miles of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops, according to one statistician who collects data mostly from official Ukrainian sources including the general staff in Kyiv.
In the same month, Ukrainian losses were “minimal,” concluded analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland.

Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles, 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.

Incredibly, staggering losses in people and equipment haven’t yet crippled the Russian military in Ukraine. The Kremlin is equipping its forces with thousands of civilian vehicles, including scooters, compact cars and even at least one bus.

[Dontrike]

Big news! JD vance said something true;

War in Ukraine not ending 'any time soon', Vance says

At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries And Tens Of Millions Of Casualties To Capture Ukraine

Isn't Russia supposed to run out of money for the war at the end of the year? I'm sure they'll keep it going even if they do.

[Gorsameth]

Isn't Russia supposed to run out of money for the war at the end of the year? I'm sure they'll keep it going even if they do.

Sadly we have been hearing that for so long, I will believe it when I see it.

And yes even if Russia runs out they won't go home, but it 'should' effect their ability to take offensive action

[alach]

I think in a way they already have. 40% of the russian economy is wrapped up in this war now. If they turned off the war factories and released the soldiers contracts I think they would immediately fall into recession.

[Elder Millennial]

This will be lost in the conversation. But I actually decided to do some poking around regarding mineral resource concentrations in Ukraine.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2020-...21-ukraine.pdf
https://www.geo.gov.ua/en/
https://www.spglobal.com/market-inte...iable-87318842

This "mineral deal" is retarded horseshit.

Ukraine does not actually have any substantial commercially viable "rare earth" or whatever fucking dumb thing deposits, according to the Ukrainian geological survey itself.

There is a wide spattering of valuable and accessible mineral deposits, just like you'd find in pretty much any country the size of Ukraine, but it's nothing extraordinary or special.

There's a huge difference between having a mineral deposit and whether those mineral deposits are commercially viable for extraction or not. Most of the Ukrainian stuff, is just not viable. The way the Trump administration talks about these mineral deposits is in the terms of the raw value of the mineral after extraction. Yeah sure Ukraine is sitting on 875462985762 billion dollars of lithium, but almost none of it exists in commercially viable forms for extraction.

Here's the extra kicker tho. According to the Ukrainian geological survey, their own survey data is "corrupted" as it's based mostly on unreliable Soviet era surveys which were often bloated and manipulated or used unreliable and outdated survey methods. With other words, the Ukrainian professionals are skeptical about their own geological survey maps.

What I'm fucking annoyed by tho, is that the our media absolutely fails to call this out.

- - - Updated - - -

Some maps

Check the above.

[alach]

Yeah I knew about some of this, like the uranium, but I believe it was the gas and oil deposits that Putin has been after. They had discovered large amounts in the north-east.

[Corvus]

Ukraine has shot down a su30 with a naval drone, which is another word first. Russian sources say the crew bailed and were rescued.

The drop in oil prices has messed things up for russia. They had been forecasting a budget deficit of around 0.5% of gdp, but revised that to -1.5% and that was at a higher oil price than it is now. They have been burning their sovereign wealth fund to cover the deficit but it is running low.

[PhaelixWW]

Yeah I knew about some of this, like the uranium, but I believe it was the gas and oil deposits that Putin has been after. They had discovered large amounts in the north-east.

This excellent video was posted a long time ago ITT, and details Putin's likely objectives in this war. Follow this link or scroll to 9:00 for the relevant portion covering the gas and oil deposits:

[Gorsameth]

This will be lost in the conversation. But I actually decided to do some poking around regarding mineral resource concentrations in Ukraine.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2020-...21-ukraine.pdf
https://www.geo.gov.ua/en/
https://www.spglobal.com/market-inte...iable-87318842

This "mineral deal" is retarded horseshit.

Ukraine does not actually have any substantial commercially viable "rare earth" or whatever fucking dumb thing deposits, according to the Ukrainian geological survey itself.

There is a wide spattering of valuable and accessible mineral deposits, just like you'd find in pretty much any country the size of Ukraine, but it's nothing extraordinary or special.

There's a huge difference between having a mineral deposit and whether those mineral deposits are commercially viable for extraction or not. Most of the Ukrainian stuff, is just not viable. The way the Trump administration talks about these mineral deposits is in the terms of the raw value of the mineral after extraction. Yeah sure Ukraine is sitting on 875462985762 billion dollars of lithium, but almost none of it exists in commercially viable forms for extraction.

Here's the extra kicker tho. According to the Ukrainian geological survey, their own survey data is "corrupted" as it's based mostly on unreliable Soviet era surveys which were often bloated and manipulated or used unreliable and outdated survey methods. With other words, the Ukrainian professionals are skeptical about their own geological survey maps.

What I'm fucking annoyed by tho, is that the our media absolutely fails to call this out.

- - - Updated - - -



Check the above.

Please, lets leave Trump in the delusion that he scored a win when in reality he signed a deal that isnt worth shit. So long as it keeps the US support Ukraine I see no need to enlighten him.

[Elder Millennial]

Yeah I knew about some of this, like the uranium, but I believe it was the gas and oil deposits that Putin has been after. They had discovered large amounts in the north-east.

The theoretical estimated value of Ukrainian fossil fuel reserves is about 700 billion 2019 USD if extracted at market prices (gas prices increased about 30% since then, but oil prices dropped by about 10%).

But again, these numbers suffer from the same problem as the ones assigned to minerals. This is the theoretical extracted value. Assuming it's all, all of it, 100% extractable at profit. There's absolutely zero indication that would be the case. Parts of it might be accessible, other parts might become more affordably extractable in a few decades if oil and gas prices increase.

Russia already sunk more money into this war than it could possibly ever extract. Trying to rationalize Putin's actions with this is akin to trying to rationalize Trump's tariffs. They are not playing 4D chess. They are driven by ideology, stupidity and cruelty.

[alach]

The theoretical estimated value of Ukrainian fossil fuel reserves is about 700 billion 2019 USD if extracted at market prices (gas prices increased about 30% since then, but oil prices dropped by about 10%).

But again, these numbers suffer from the same problem as the ones assigned to minerals. This is the theoretical extracted value. Assuming it's all, all of it, 100% extractable at profit. There's absolutely zero indication that would be the case. Parts of it might be accessible, other parts might become more affordably extractable in a few decades if oil and gas prices increase.

Russia already sunk more money into this war than it could possibly ever extract. Trying to rationalize Putin's actions with this is akin to trying to rationalize Trump's tariffs. They are not playing 4D chess. They are driven by ideology, stupidity and cruelty.

Yeah I'm sure he intended it as a quick land grab, like he did in Georgia, but the resistance held and I think he's spent the last three years and probably at least that many more unable to pull out from embarrassment and shame. Like Trump and tariffs.

It's been years, but I think I remember when this started Ukraine had actually signed a deal with Shell to begin exploring the oil and gas deposits. Or maybe thar was in the black sea, where they have oil as well.

[Gorsameth]

The invasion makes sense if you think you will conquer the country in 3 days.
Things obv didn't turn out that way.

[Iphie]

This will be lost in the conversation. But I actually decided to do some poking around regarding mineral resource concentrations in Ukraine.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2020-...21-ukraine.pdf
https://www.geo.gov.ua/en/
https://www.spglobal.com/market-inte...iable-87318842

This "mineral deal" is retarded horseshit.

Ukraine does not actually have any substantial commercially viable "rare earth" or whatever fucking dumb thing deposits, according to the Ukrainian geological survey itself.

There is a wide spattering of valuable and accessible mineral deposits, just like you'd find in pretty much any country the size of Ukraine, but it's nothing extraordinary or special.

There's a huge difference between having a mineral deposit and whether those mineral deposits are commercially viable for extraction or not. Most of the Ukrainian stuff, is just not viable. The way the Trump administration talks about these mineral deposits is in the terms of the raw value of the mineral after extraction. Yeah sure Ukraine is sitting on 875462985762 billion dollars of lithium, but almost none of it exists in commercially viable forms for extraction.

Here's the extra kicker tho. According to the Ukrainian geological survey, their own survey data is "corrupted" as it's based mostly on unreliable Soviet era surveys which were often bloated and manipulated or used unreliable and outdated survey methods. With other words, the Ukrainian professionals are skeptical about their own geological survey maps.

What I'm fucking annoyed by tho, is that the our media absolutely fails to call this out.

- - - Updated - - -



Check the above.

This is pretty much what every economic geologist in the world has said since there was a first mention of a mineral deal. Like every economic geologist was baffled by this whole thing, since they know what's up. The rest of us just well...we just wondered what the hell?