Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

The invasion makes sense if you think you will conquer the country in 3 days.
Things obv didn't turn out that way.

Ah, yes. The infamous "small victorious war".

History be rhymin'.

[Corvus]

Ukraine has rejected pooties 3 day ceasefire and said a 30 day one is a better idea. In the meantime they say they cant guarantee the safety of anyone visiting Moscow for may day.

Maybe a coincidence, but the leaders of Serbia and Slovakia, who had been going to attend have now called in sick.

[Elder Millennial]

Ukraine has rejected pooties 3 day ceasefire and said a 30 day one is a better idea. In the meantime they say they cant guarantee the safety of anyone visiting Moscow for may day.

Maybe a coincidence, but the leaders of Serbia and Slovakia, who had been going to attend have now called in sick.

Xi will be there. So there's exactly zero chance the Ukrainians would risk it.

Slovakia and Serbia checking out probably has more to do with their respective domestic situations as they are both only barely holding onto power and might not want to risk a domestic backlash while in Moscow.

[Corvus]

Just setting off air raid sirens and forcing pootie and Xi to run for shelter and embarass pootie in the process would be the best way to do it.

And in a day ending in y, medvedev has drunk rambled about Kyiv ceasing to exist the next day if Ukraine attacks the parade.

[PhaelixWW]

Ukraine has shot down a su30 with a naval drone, which is another word first.

Sounds like they actually shot down not just one, but two SU-30 fighters in that naval drone attack.

[Corvus]

Ukraine have a new naval drone armedcwith twin Sidewinders which seems to be the one that brought down the planes.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...surface-drone/

They have reportedly also stopped using starlink, meaning Musk can no longer protect russia.

The drone was apparently base camping a russian airfield near the coast and bagged them when they were landing or taking off, requiring them to come in low and slow, making them a big target

[Deus Mortis]

Ukraine have a new naval drone armedcwith twin Sidewinders which seems to be the one that brought down the planes.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...surface-drone/

They have reportedly also stopped using starlink, meaning Musk can no longer protect russia.

The drone was apparently base camping a russian airfield near the coast and bagged them when they were landing or taking off, requiring them to come in low and slow, making them a big target

Pretty sure he would be in deep shit if he did fuck with Starlink as the Pentagon bought hundreds of terminals for the express purpose of him not being able to turn those ones off.

[Poopymonster]

Pretty sure he would be in deep shit if he did fuck with Starlink as the Pentagon bought hundreds of terminals for the express purpose of him not being able to turn those ones off.

The nearest investigation, at best, would start early 2027.

[Corvus]

A meeting of EU leaders took place in Kyiv pushing for a full 30 day ceasefire, with the US backing the efforts. If russia doesn't accept even more sanctions and weapon support are promised.

The Kremlin labelled it confrontational, say sanctions against them are meaningless and will not even enter talks on ceasefire until all weapon delivers to Ukraine are halted.

Basically russia again saying they have no interest in peace.

- - - Updated - - -

Pootie has proposed direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul without any preconditions.

Possibly Xi had words with him or the russian economy is doing worse than they are making out.

[P for Pancetta]

Isn't Russia supposed to run out of money for the war at the end of the year? I'm sure they'll keep it going even if they do.

It's complicated. They won't be running out of money, and even if they did they could continue the war because they can pay for the war in social capital as long as they have an iron grip on their system. But based on how things are going this year is the year Russia will be starting to run out of things. They're already running low on certain vehicles which has already significantly hampered Russia's ability to advance at speed.

They're running out of heavy artillery barrels, currently all the stocks have been completely emptied, not just of barrel but reserve artillery pieces. They've been cannibalizing their stock to provide fresh barrels for the frontlines because they only last so long, and they've been using them a lot and still do. They do still have plenty of lighter artillery pieces, but they do have a significantly shorter range and more importantly they do not produce enough ammunition to service the ones already in the field. They won't be able to replace the heavy pieces with lighter ones for that reason once they start running low on them. projections for this range from last quarter of this year to summer of next year.

besides that there are other significant pieces of equipment that they won't have any left of from the first quarter of 2026 onward if they continue to use/lose them at current rates.

[alach]

A meeting of EU leaders took place in Kyiv pushing for a full 30 day ceasefire, with the US backing the efforts. If russia doesn't accept even more sanctions and weapon support are promised.

The Kremlin labelled it confrontational, say sanctions against them are meaningless and will not even enter talks on ceasefire until all weapon delivers to Ukraine are halted.

Basically russia again saying they have no interest in peace.

- - - Updated - - -

Pootie has proposed direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul without any preconditions.

Possibly Xi had words with him or the russian economy is doing worse than they are making out.

A delay tactic maybe? I just don't see him giving anything up, no matter how many lives it costs the russians and Ukraine and the free world will just never allow the forcable seizure of four terrorities. Its against the very rule of law we have lived in for nearly one hundred years.

"Bulgaria continuously supports Ukraine since the beginning of the war. We must all bring Ukraine in the strongest position to achieve a just and lasting peace. I stated this during a VTC of the heads of state and government of the ‚coalition of the willing‘ for Ukraine".

So lets see what happens today - a deadline by western leaders.

ZELENSKYY: I WILL WAIT FOR PUTIN IN TÜRKIYE, CEASEFIRE MUST BEGIN 12 MAY

Following their summit in Kyiv on 10 May, the leaders of the coalition of the willing demanded that Russia agree to an unconditional ceasefire for 30 days starting 12 May. The EU and the US plan to ramp up sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to comply with the ceasefire. The leaders had a joint phone call with US President Donald Trump before making the announcement.

I predict that russia will bomb another school or hospital.

*****

Another news story that might have been missed.

Tusk says Russia ordered 2024 arson attack on Warsaw shopping centre

We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping centre in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered by the Russian special services. Some of the perpetrators have already been detained, all the others are identified and searched for. We will get you all!

Tusk said on X

Just another example to use when arguing with someone how russia isn't the victim.

*******
Updating this since thread isn't moving.
As expected, the no ceasefire yesterday, but russia only launched 10 drones and only killed 2, so I guess thats an improvement.
All eyes are on Istanbul for Thursday, where Zelensky and putin (?) have agreed to meet and talk. (yeah right.)
But of course....

Kremlin still refusing to say whether Putin will attend Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul

So we shall see soon enough. I predict another ploy but I have been watching Andor.

[alach]

Going to bump this instead of editing the last one, for funsies.

Todays the big day!

Russia and Ukraine are due to meet.....
Wow! So it will soon be over!
...But with Putin a likely no-show, what will they talk about? Here’s what we know

There was speculation this week that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky might meet Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday – if the Russian leader decided to show up for talks that he himself suggested.

The possibility of the two men meeting face to face caused major excitement, but it might not be happening after the Kremlin’s list of delegates made no mention Putin.

We will know for sure in a few hours I figure, but my bet is he doesn't show. Because. Putin. Doesn't. Want. Peace.
Today we silence all those who screech how the war still going because we help Ukraine to defend itself once and for all.
Or, I'm wrong and Putin shows up and they make a deal and return the land and kidnapped children and everything goes back to 2014 except for the million dead and wounded.

*****

And there we have it...

Russian delegation arrives in Istanbul ahead of Ukraine peace talks as Putin not expected to join

The delegation's list is notably void of Putin himself and other of the Kremlin's top politicians, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Putin's foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, was also absent from the list.

Shocker! Not even his higher rank diplomats. It is pretty obvious to the world at this point putin has no interest discussing peace and never did. I sure hope trump learns something today.

[caervek]

The delegation's list is notably void of Putin himself and other of the Kremlin's top politicians, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Ahh good old trustworthy Sergey Lavrov, as previously seen in the 1994 Ukranian classic "give us your nukes and we promise to never invade or interfere with your country", and the 1999 masterpiece "Give us all your nuclear bombers and long range cruise missiles and we promise to never invade or interfere with your country, plus we'll cancel that gas debt we forced you into", and of course who could forget 2008's incomparable "Give us your stockpile of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Moscow and we promise to never invade or interfere with you country, plus Obama and Biden have agreed to give you some money to help with the new gas debt we've forced upon you" >.>

Yeah I don't think they will care about not having him at the table :P

[alach]

As expected, no peace deal from the talks today.
Western leaders are preparing more sanctions.
Russia even had the nerve to demand land that they don't even occupy. This will go nowhere.
Ukraines only hope is an Iron Dome and NATO membership.

[Iphie]

As expected, no peace deal from the talks today.
Western leaders are preparing more sanctions.
Russia even had the nerve to demand land that they don't even occupy. This will go nowhere.
Ukraines only hope is an Iron Dome and NATO membership.

I mean, this is the first time they openly met sincde 2022, did you really expect them to bang out a peacedeal in one day?

[alach]

I said "As expected" :P Like, I expect putin to waste everyone's time for another couple years while his meat grinders roll on.
I think they were looking for a 30 day cease fire and to talk more than two hours.
Let's not forget, this meeting was suggested by putin himself.

[Fugus]

And evidently there is now satellite images of Russia building up at a NATO boarder. I know there is no way they are THAT stupid to try anything given how badly they are doing with NATO not even directly in the fighting.

If they are dying to the proxy without help from North Korea, China and others, they have to know they stand no chance against the real thing unless they think they can get the US to help them directly which I am not sure even the Trump will have the ability to do effectively.

[NED funded]

Its never a bad time to shit on European inaction. Say what you want abt Trump but he does things. Europe is discussing on potentially doing sanctions on Russia if there is no progress on peace talks. Its doing this instead of actually going ahead with the sanctions and scaling back

Von der Leyen said the EU is considering sanctions that are more ambitious than a new round of measures adopted on Wednesday. She proposed targeting the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe, Russia's banking sector and the so-called shadow fleet of aging vessels with obscure ownership and unknown insurance that Moscow uses to skirt oil sanctions.

These pipelines are inactive btw. Not bc of European action. They are inactive cuz of Russia and the explossion two years ago

They are a joke

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...von-der-leyen/

[Iphie]

And evidently there is now satellite images of Russia building up at a NATO boarder. I know there is no way they are THAT stupid to try anything given how badly they are doing with NATO not even directly in the fighting.

If they are dying to the proxy without help from North Korea, China and others, they have to know they stand no chance against the real thing unless they think they can get the US to help them directly which I am not sure even the Trump will have the ability to do effectively.

They've always been at the Finnish border (yes, it's there, Finland is quite aware of the russian army tyvm) nobody is worrying over here.

[Fugus]

They've always been at the Finnish border (yes, it's there, Finland is quite aware of the russian army tyvm) nobody is worrying over here.

Didn’t know how common it was but did figure it had to be performative because there was no way they were stupid enough to do that unless they managed to get the US to betray nato and help them which I doubt Trump would have near the support to go that far.