Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Endus]

Russia has a dogma that says that Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan should forever be controlled by Russia and they will not be conceded to western influence no matter the cost.

So? No one should give a single tattered fuck what Russia's opinion on that is. If Ukraine, Belarus, and/or Kazakhstan don't agree, we should back them and Russia can go fuck off and cry about it. They don't get a say.

Putin is going all out on Ukraine and will not stop until he gets all of it. Western states have said numerous times that if Putin gets all of Ukraine that will trigger ww3. If Russia succeed there will be a global conflict and Russians prepare for such scenario. Apparently, there is something that makes west Ukraine important for the west, not sure what it is.

There will be no peace. This will last for years and every summer we will have a new major offensive.

It won't last for years. He's pissing of the Western powers, and weakening Russia consistently. Very soon, it's going to be rather trivial for the allied Western powers to just walk tanks into Moscow and say "okay, we're taking over until Russia stops being an asshole."

What makes Western Ukraine important to the Western powers is just the concept of "sovereignty". We respect Ukraine's sovereignty. Russia breaching it is invalid, and that bothers us. It's really not complicated. Russia isn't a superpower and doesn't get to dictate shit any more; nobody is actually listening to Putin as if he's making valid arguments, he's in the same category of pathetic little despots as Kim Jong Un. You keep an eye on them because they're chaotic, but they're not an existential threat. They can't even take Ukraine. As demonstrated. They're losing.

Russia's resources are already running out. Once a nation's resources are exhausted, any war they're involved in naturally comes to an end, because they can't properly fight any more.

[Wilian]

Russia is prepared to fight a world war when they've blown through about half of their inventory, killed an entire generation of their own people, and the most modern piece of equipment is something from 50 years ago?

Alright, lets just start with that Putin is mad and wants a legacy rivaling historical RuZZian figures. Now that's off the table, while they've blown through half of their inventory, they are, under war economy also repleneshing. Their aerial attacks have steadily grown in both numbers and intensity while analysts now say they now also have enough production to store under the war economy. It's true they mostly send stored shit to Ukraine but according to our and general western analysts they are storing new produce for whatever future goals they may have. Bases near Finnish borders were emptied during 2022 to 2024 but now they're being built up again both with rooming to house severely increased amount of people and due to radar tracking that we have in Finland, with also hardware. Formerly emptied fields are filled again and at this rate very soon succeeding the amount of gear there were prior to war (but still lower than say, during Soviet era, for now). They have booked landmass around size of St. Petersburg, city of millions right by our (Finnish) border while working railways and infra to faciliate mass movement of whatever they plan to move.

I don't say this to doompost or glorify RuZZian situation. It's the reality we have data on. As far as population goes, RuZZia still has more than enough population to cause a pause and we can't solely count on generational attrition because generational attrition is a matter of decades, not what happens in next 5, 10, 15 or even 20 years when Putin is emboldened to send people they have now in for the meatgrinder right now.

[Endus]

I think it has been said before that they reserve some forces for a potential NATO intervention, they keep recruiting personnel like mad. Now if these forces are enough, that's a different story. Do you think they do all of this without having at least an idea about what to do when and if NATO intervenes?

Yes. They have no real capacity to deter a proper NATO attack. They can't even keep Ukraine out. This entire war has been a strong demonstration that Russia's materiel is falling apart and their soldiers are poorly trained and lack morale. I have no idea why you think Russia is particularly strong, here. They can't even take Ukraine, and Ukraine was not exactly a major military power.

[Wilian]

Russia's resources are already running out. Once a nation's resources are exhausted, any war they're involved in naturally comes to an end, because they can't properly fight any more.

And this is the overly optimistic, totally devoid of the situation thinking that annoys me because it's very single minded, forgoes global geopolitical situation and is the sort of thinking that in 2022 (and in 2014) was on the run, like how "crippling sanctions will stop RuZZia in a year, two years, five years, soon"

[Edge-]

I think it has been said before that they reserve some forces for a potential NATO intervention, they keep recruiting personnel like mad. Now if these forces are enough, that's a different story. Do you think they do all of this without having at least an idea about what to do when and if NATO intervenes?

where are these secret forces and why haven't they used them to stop their 3-year embarassment in ukraine?

[Bwgmon]

A third of their bombers just got blown up because they ignored warnings and didn't care to defend their bases but of course, they are totally absolutely no doubt prepared to fight NATO.

And considering other countries are looking to Ukraine for training on things like drone warfare, Putin busting out these alleged reserves sounds like it'd devolve into "Russia is dealing with the same problems, but multiplied over [x] more fronts" pretty quickly.

[D Luniz]

And this is the overly optimistic, totally devoid of the situation thinking that annoys me because it's very single minded, forgoes global geopolitical situation and is the sort of thinking that in 2022 (and in 2014) was on the run, like how "crippling sanctions will stop RuZZia in a year, two years, five years, soon"

That was more an over assumption on what would be "crippling" to the population.

[PhaelixWW]

where are these secret forces and why haven't they used them to stop their 3-year embarassment in ukraine?

Oh, c'mon now. I'm sure you're well aware of the tired old saying: "The best defense is an incompetent offense."

Right?

[Fantomen]

On general level however the bridge itself really holds no strategic value anymore, henche "wasted resources".

There are two railway lines Russia can use to supply its troops in western Ukraine. One over Kerch bridge through Crim, and one through the "land bridge" in south Ukraine.

A railroad on flat land is very resilient agents attacks, and is relative easy to repair, but they can be cut if you repeatedly attack it, and the railroad is within range of Ukrainian long range artillery, missiles and premium drones. So Ukraine can cut it, if they putt the effort into it.

Ukraine is shaping the battlefield, if/then the Kerch bridge is unusable. Ukraine can cut off the supply for the Russian troops in the west, or attest make it very hard for Russia to supply them, and Ukraine have 4 marine brigades, and have collected a large number of small assault and supply crafts, that Ukraine can use to land on Crim, or cross the Dnieper River.

A amphibious assault is very hard, but it can be very decisive, look at the Korean War. So beside the symbolic value, the Kerch bridge hold a strategic value.

[Dontrike]

I think it has been said before that they reserve some forces for a potential NATO intervention, they keep recruiting personnel like mad. Now if these forces are enough, that's a different story. Do you think they do all of this without having at least an idea about what to do when and if NATO intervenes?

So Russia has this amazing group of people they've been saving for the "NATO attack" that would only happen because Russia won't stop attacking? Or is it that NATO was just going to attack just because......?

Who are these secret extra people that Russia has been able to conscript- I mean "recruit" that will tip the balance against the world that they can't do against one country?

[Ghostile]

I think it has been said before that they reserve some forces for a potential NATO intervention, they keep recruiting personnel like mad. Now if these forces are enough, that's a different story. Do you think they do all of this without having at least an idea about what to do when and if NATO intervenes?

The rEaL ruSsIan aRmY does not exist.
It's the same absolute clownfiesta with more numbers.
Except in armor as they have managed to empty even the tank graveyards.

[Timester]

I think it has been said before that they reserve some forces for a potential NATO intervention, they keep recruiting personnel like mad. Now if these forces are enough, that's a different story. Do you think they do all of this without having at least an idea about what to do when and if NATO intervenes?

Yes, the secret Russian army of Tooth Fairies, Dark Elves and Baba Yaga...

... What? It's as fictional as the force that you say Russia has.



Lets do this exercise. THEY JUST LOST 1/3 OF THEIR BOMBERS TO A DRONE ATTACK (no fielded man was needed). What's the conclusion you can take for here?

I'll answer, this is Putin's technological failure Afghanistan.

[Corvus]

Let's not forget that russia were so worried about NATO they stripped their borders bare to deal with Ukraine.

[Iphie]

Let's not forget that russia were so worried about NATO they stripped their borders bare to deal with Ukraine.

They stripped the Finnish border garrisons yes, but, if memory serves, that was before the Finnish accession to NATO wasn't it? In any case russia is filling those garrisons again. The Kaliningrad garrisons never emptied, and the Norway/russia border is barely worth mentioning. I'm not sure about the Baltic state borders but I doubt there was a huge presence there anyway.

[Vampiregenesis]

Some analysts say that the Russian bombers were exposed on purpose because they can be used for nuclear attacks so the other nuclear powers have to be able to see them clearly through satellites. If some are missing, it could indicate a potential nuclear attack. These analysts are mostly pro-russia though so not sure about the legibility of their claims.

[Edge-]

Some analysts say that the Russian bombers were exposed on purpose because they can be used for nuclear attacks so the other nuclear powers have to be able to see them clearly through satellites. If some are missing, it could indicate a potential nuclear attack.

exposed with tires on the wings on purpose?

potential NUKES?

have you been talking with yuppie?

[Vampiregenesis]

exposed with tires on the wings on purpose?

potential NUKES?

have you been talking with yuppie?

Russia could protect them against drones I believe.

[KrayZ33]

Some analysts say that the Russian bombers were exposed on purpose because they can be used for nuclear attacks so the other nuclear powers have to be able to see them clearly through satellites. If some are missing, it could indicate a potential nuclear attack. These analysts are mostly pro-russia though so not sure about the legibility of their claims.

You do realise these bombers were actually used, right?
Do you think everyone squirmed every other day when they were on a bombing run, trying to destroy hospitals and civilian infrastructure, because a potential nuclear attack might happen any second now, since they can no longer be found on the airfield?

[Joszef Kiprich]

Is there a cure for this kind of stupidity?

[Edge-]

Russia could protect them against drones I believe.

wait didn't russia just lose a bunch of planes to said drones by not being able to protect them?