Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elenos]

I suppose we will find out in a year what exactly they discussed behind closed doors, and while a lot of people know will argue it was a nothing burger, just a cheap parade, reality is you don't spend 3 hours just chatting about the weather, not when Rubio and Lavrov were also there.

[Gorsameth]

I suppose we will find out in a year what exactly they discussed behind closed doors, and while a lot of people know will argue it was a nothing burger, just a cheap parade, reality is you don't spend 3 hours just chatting about the weather, not when Rubio and Lavrov were also there.

Don't think we ever learned what was said in the Putin/Trump 1on1 they had during his first Presidency.

It was literally just Trump, Putin and the Kremlins translator. there is no one who can spill the beans because no one else was there.

[Wilian]

Went about as well as expected. Trump gave Putin everything he could've asked for, got nothing back and left with a tongue browner than puddle of diarrhea.

[DarkAmbient]

Putin told Trump he could relax some territorial claims in exchange for Donetsk region - report

Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump that he could relax some territorial gains in Ukraine in exchange for the eastern Donetsk region, the Financial Times reports.

The Russian leader told Trump he could freeze the rest of the frontline if his core demands were met, the FT says, citing four people with direct knowledge of the talks.

In exchange for the Donetsk region, Putin said he would freeze the frontline in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and not launch new attacks to take more of the territory.

The move would hand Moscow full control of a territory it has occupied since 2014.

But sources familiar with Zelenskyy’s thinking have said he would not agree to hand over Donetsk, but that he would be open to discussing land with Trump in Washington.

[Elenos]

So the deal on offer is Ukraine gives Donbass, what they still hold that is. Ukraine gets security guarantees ( worth mentioning Putin said that at the summit ). What I really wonder is what happens in Summy and Kharkiv oblasts then? If Russia trades the territory there for Donbass or not.

Either way as I see it Ukraine can either accept this now or the war can go on another year or two and then Russia will take the Donbass through military force.

[alach]

From what I've read, Russia can't afford another couple years.

But if it ends the fighting and returns the kidnapped and let's Ukraine have a future by being in military alliances with the west maybe this is for the best.
Probably would have to put it to a vote within the country.

[Edge-]

So the deal on offer is Ukraine gives Donbass, what they still hold that is. Ukraine gets security guarantees ( worth mentioning Putin said that at the summit ). What I really wonder is what happens in Summy and Kharkiv oblasts then? If Russia trades the territory there for Donbass or not.

Either way as I see it Ukraine can either accept this now or the war can go on another year or two and then Russia will take the Donbass through military force.

i'm not sure i would sign onto any deal with donny promising anything

dude shit talked and tore up trade deals he made last term as one of his first acts this term

[alach]

i'm not sure i would sign onto any deal with donny promising anything

dude shit talked and tore up trade deals he made last term as one of his first acts this term

Or putin...

[Edge-]

Or putin...

apparently the us is providing the security guarantee, so i was commenting on that

i think we all agree it absolutely goes without saying that putin cannot be trusted in any capacity

[Huehuecoyotl]

apparently the us is providing the security guarantee, so i was commenting on that

i think we all agree it absolutely goes without saying that putin cannot be trusted in any capacity

Neither can Trump. Given how he's bent over backwards in Putin's favour over the years, would you trust a "security guarantee" from him? It goes without saying that Putin won't keep up his side of the deal, but when he ignores the treaty and either invades or uses some other method to undermine or destabilise Ukraine, what the fuck is Trump going to do? Apart from, at best, wagging his finger and saying "bad Putin, I'll rap your knuckles in 2 weeks if you don't stop it".

Any deal that relies on Trump in any aspect is a poisoned chalice. Ukraine would be insane to fall for it, as would the rest of Europe.

The fact that Putin is prepared to accept this is a good sign, though. Things at home must be worse than we know. Even if certain posters keep pushing the narrative that Russia stronk. Russia win war any day now.

[Wilian]

So the deal on offer is Ukraine gives Donbass, what they still hold that is. Ukraine gets security guarantees ( worth mentioning Putin said that at the summit ). What I really wonder is what happens in Summy and Kharkiv oblasts then? If Russia trades the territory there for Donbass or not.

Either way as I see it Ukraine can either accept this now or the war can go on another year or two and then Russia will take the Donbass through military force.

It's horrible deal that is just preparation for next step of their plans. Donbass is the most heavily fortified region and also base of natural resources and industries for Ukraine (albeit Russia is currently occupying plenty of it)

Essentially Russia is asking to bypass all the defenses Ukraine has built in geographically and infrastructurally favourable positions but without fight. It reminds me of the deal Russians offered prior to invading Finland where they wanted areas in the well developed Finnish lands in Karelia and Karelian Ishtmus and were willing to trade some token forest plots norther up.

[Gabriel]

So the deal on offer is Ukraine gives Donbass, what they still hold that is. Ukraine gets security guarantees ( worth mentioning Putin said that at the summit ). What I really wonder is what happens in Summy and Kharkiv oblasts then? If Russia trades the territory there for Donbass or not.

Either way as I see it Ukraine can either accept this now or the war can go on another year or two and then Russia will take the Donbass through military force.

What makes you think Russia won't just renew their offense anyway after a while even if Ukraine took the deal now?

[Wilian]

Neither can Trump. Given how he's bent over backwards in Putin's favour over the years, would you trust a "security guarantee" from him? It goes without saying that Putin won't keep up his side of the deal, but when he ignores the treaty and either invades or uses some other method to undermine or destabilise Ukraine, what the fuck is Trump going to do? Apart from, at best, wagging his finger and saying "bad Putin, I'll rap your knuckles in 2 weeks if you don't stop it".

Any deal that relies on Trump in any aspect is a poisoned chalice. Ukraine would be insane to fall for it, as would the rest of Europe.

The fact that Putin is prepared to accept this is a good sign, though. Things at home must be worse than we know. Even if certain posters keep pushing the narrative that Russia stronk. Russia win war any day now.

If I was Ukraine or Zelensky I'd outright reject any deal that doesn't include presence of western troops on the ground to deter any further invasions and a NATO membership. We already saw what non-tangible security guarantees are worth with Budapest Memorandum

[Gorsameth]

yeah the only security guarantee that can exist is immediate NATO ascension.

[Nymrohd]

yeah the only security guarantee that can exist is immediate NATO ascension.

I am not even sure that is enough. Only actual military presence in the area makes sense

[DarkTZeratul]

I am not even sure that is enough. Only actual military presence in the area makes sense

Unless everyone in NATO immediately violates the entire founding principle of NATO, membership even without active military should be sufficient.

[alach]

Patriot missiles batteries across the country and a demilitarized zone north and east. There's a minefield already been laid by an former Russian General that I think fell from a window that makes movement east impossible and basically inhospitable.
What Russia has done to those areas of civilization will take decades or more to repair. So much of Ukraines east is now ruined for generations.
And NATO and EU and that's the deal.
Eat shit on your future demographics and economy, russia. It will take ages for you to recover from what your dictator of a ruler did while Ukraine flourishes under western contracts already in place to repair and rebuild.

[Elenos]

What makes you think Russia won't just renew their offense anyway after a while even if Ukraine took the deal now?

Nothing, and that dynamic will continue to exist regardless of how the war ends. A lot of people and western leaders think they can put the genie back in the bottle and ensure we never get another war like this again, but that situation doesn't hold for modern geopolitics.

[Gorsameth]

Nothing, and that dynamic will continue to exist regardless of how the war ends. A lot of people and western leaders think they can put the genie back in the bottle and ensure we never get another war like this again, but that situation doesn't hold for modern geopolitics.

The genie is back in the bottle when everyone around Russia is covered by NATO or China.

[Wilian]

Unless everyone in NATO immediately violates the entire founding principle of NATO, membership even without active military should be sufficient.

The thing is, with countries like Hungary and Slovakia in NATO, countries that are essentially Russian vassals at this point and cause great damage in EU regarding new actions against Russia, it throws shadow on the strength of Article 5 which, against common belief is not automated response on attack, but Article that has to be universally approved amongst all memberstates to be taken into effect after the attack.

The fear about NATO unity is about the failure to enact Article 5 if the few Russian stooges in NATO decide that no, green troops in Narva under some pretense or some small Finnish border village overtaken by non-insignia troops is not enough to launch Article 5 because they "don't feel like WW3 over such small hybrid operations".

Of course lot of NATO members would act independently but officially without consensus, Article 5 cannot be activated.

- - - Updated - - -

Nothing, and that dynamic will continue to exist regardless of how the war ends. A lot of people and western leaders think they can put the genie back in the bottle and ensure we never get another war like this again, but that situation doesn't hold for modern geopolitics.

As Finnish president Stubb stated, the overall geolopolitcal apparatus and consensus-based world on principles of national sovereignity has come to an end and we are now in era of uncertainty where large geopolitical entities will try to carve their piece off. This can be congratulated on continued western failures to see where the situation is heading even when told point blank by our adversariers.

Actions that should've been taken at latest in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea (earliest during their invasion of Georgia in 2008 or even earliel, their genocides in Chechnya) started being taken in 2022 and so slowly we're still nowhere near where we should be, as evidenced by the monetary aid Europe has given to Russia in terms of energy purchaces in 2024 outvaluing the aid given to Ukraine defend themselves. By large part this is because European politicians haven't had the stomach to rock the boat and false faith that somehow situation can be brought into balance again by not being "too mean" to Russia. Attempts to use economy to drag Russia back in line have failed spectaculary.

We continue this weakness by not sticking to our own red lines (the almoust half a year ago snap sanctions if no ceasefire that still haven't been implemented) or offering Putin the sort of stage he had in Alaska which was total Russian victory as far as goals achieved go. The few positive signs has been that some of the re-armament projects seem to be hitting ground finally but those are projects that will take years into future. Production, infra and material needs will take years to satisfy.

Europe is perceived weak because we've acted weak.