Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

I'd rather something stronger, but that basically exactly what is in the EU's next sanction package they are working on getting through.

Trump on Russia’s incursion into NATO: ‘Here we go!’


Do it, ya doofus, do it!

why is he doing a jerry seinfield impression?

[alach]

why is he doing a jerry seinfield impression?

"And what's the deal with Russia anyways? They arent rushing anywhere, they should be called slowsia."

Did I get it? Maybe that's more a Leno.

[Wilian]

Can't really close Ukraine airspace without coming within range of Russian AA stationed inside Russia, which then creates an unacceptable risk to NATO pilots if those AA sites are not removed and we arrive at ww3.

I'd much rather see a response targeting for example Russia's shadow fleet, aiming to cripple that as a means of avoiding sanctions with an added bonus of stopping them from sabotaging undersea cables.

Sure you can. S-400 has range of 400km and those are their longest range interceptors. Those aren't at the immediate frontline either. There is more than enough buffer zone especially for modern AAM missiles with some 200+km range.

[Gorsameth]

why is he doing a jerry seinfield impression?

Nothing to worry about, just Trump being excited that he finally got the go ahead from Putin to begin their joint invasion of Europe.

[Wilian]

I'd rather something stronger, but that basically exactly what is in the EU's next sanction package they are working on getting through.

Trump on Russia’s incursion into NATO: ‘Here we go!’


Do it, ya doofus, do it!

What he will do is yet another 2-8 weeks of red line for some arbitary promise while Europe keeps wringling hands and condemning is my expectation

[Gabriel]

Can't really close Ukraine airspace without coming within range of Russian AA stationed inside Russia, which then creates an unacceptable risk to NATO pilots if those AA sites are not removed and we arrive at ww3.

I'd much rather see a response targeting for example Russia's shadow fleet, aiming to cripple that as a means of avoiding sanctions with an added bonus of stopping them from sabotaging undersea cables.

Fuck that. Just air strike the launch sites for the drones that ended up in Polish airspace. Do it every time it happens.

Give Russia a 30 minute warning to evacuate personnel if you are feeling generous.

[Saradain]

Fuck that. Just air strike the launch sites for the drones that ended up in Polish airspace. Do it every time it happens.

Give Russia a 30 minute warning to evacuate personnel if you are feeling generous.

Exciting times! We have this Zapad (West) training event on friday, wasn't that how 2022 invasion began? Maybe Russia will do something retarded this time too?

[Gorsameth]

Exciting times! We have this Zapad (West) training event on friday, wasn't that how 2022 invasion began? Maybe Russia will do something retarded this time too?

There is no reality in which Russia is looking to open another war front.

[Saradain]

There is no reality in which Russia is looking to open another war front.

Putin does not concern him with any realities, other than the Czardom. But yeah, there simply won't and cannot be anything catastrophic happening during or after the weekend. I'm just fucking bored of NATO and Europe twiddling their thumbs when russian anything steers few hundred kilometers across the wrong side of the border. At times, killing NATO country citizens.

[Dontrike]

There is no reality in which Russia is looking to open another war front.

Maybe not while Ukraine is going on, but give them a couple years after and he'll start another no problem.

[Iphie]

There is no reality in which Russia is looking to open another war front.

Not to mention, "Winter is coming", not even Russia is stupid enough to invade a country with proper winters...in winter, Oh...wait, Winter War...

[Breccia]

Trump says Russian drone incursion into Poland ‘could’ve been a mistake’

That sound you hear is Trump swallowing.

“Could’ve been a mistake. Could’ve been a mistake, but regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation, but hopefully it’s gonna come to an end,” Trump said Thursday.

"Could have happened to anyone. One minute you're minding your own business, the next you send drones into another country nineteen times."

“If it wasn’t [intentional], there’s some significant incompetence there,” Gen. Christopher Mahoney, the current assistant commandant of the Marine Corps and Trump’s nominee to be the next vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“If the Russians meant to do it, it was provocative. If they didn’t mean to do it, it’s an indication of incompetence. At any rate, I think what we’re seeing is the Polish armed forces, from their increase in defense spending to their increase in capability, being emblematic of that balance that we need to do,” Mahoney added.

Now, I'm not going to defend Putin...

[Corvus]

The drones were reported carrying Polish similar. It wasn't a mistake. It was deliberate, for a number of reasons.

To test NATO reactions and resolve, to try and drive division in the alliance via Trump and to bypass Ukrainian defences by flying through Poland.

[alach]

So its been a few days since russia invaded Polish airspace. Lets see how the response is going....

First, because hes the least important,
Donald Trump urges NATO countries to stop 'shocking' Russian oil purchases to end Ukraine war

The US president says the alliance's commitment to winning the war "has been far less than 100%" and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is "shocking", as it "greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power, over Russia".

I'm mean, hes not exactly wrong, it would be great to do that, and most of the EU did, but country's like Hungary and Slovakia are russia-friendly at the moment and dependant on russian fuel. Its such a small number though, compared to what Germany gave up already and what India and China are buying. Then he said;
Trump 'ready' to sanction Russia if Nato nations stop buying its oil
And since I don't believe sanctions will end this war, this is pointless to even discuss. If trump said something like, "Stop buying oil and I will set up training camps across Europe for Ukraine soldiers, install a free of charge air defence shield, and help with new aircraft, that would be something, but he didn't, so its not.

Now, as for NATO;
NATO launches “Eastern Sentry” to bolster posture along eastern flank

On Friday (12 September 2025), NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Alexus G. Grynkewich held a joint press conference to outline NATO’s response to the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones two days earlier. Mr Rutte announced the launch of “Eastern Sentry,” a military activity aimed to bolster NATO’s posture along the eastern flank.
Commencing in the coming days, Eastern Sentry will involve a range of Allied assets and feature both traditional capabilities and novel technologies, including elements designed to address challenges associated with drones. “Eastern Sentry will add flexibility and strength to our posture,” said the Secretary General. He thanked General Grynkewich for his responsive leadership both in the context of the incursions on 10 September and in guiding the design of this new activity, as well as Admiral Pierre Vandier, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, for his role in promoting innovative solutions to new challenges, including those posed by the use of drones.

This doesn't seem to help Ukraine at all, but I guess its a good flex, like using F-35's to take down wood and cardboard drones.
NATO’s first drone battle pits million-dollar jets against cheap drones, exposing vulnerabilities

And how did Ukaine respond? By punching back...
Ukrainian drones strike major Russian oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast, governor says
Ukrainian troops regain control of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast village, military says
Ukrainian drone hits chemical plant in Russia's Perm Krai 1,800 km from border, media reports

[Wilian]

Last night's tally of Russia's war on Europe, Polish and allied air forces active during night but current assessment is that potential border violations were weather induced misreadings on radars. In Romania, Russian attack drone invaded 10 kilometers deep in the borders, grossly violating NATO airspace and Romanian sovereignity, it was tracked by F-16 but not shot down because it went back towards Ukraine. What a pussy note not to shoot it down, "it went into Ukraine instead".

[Dontrike]

At Current Rate, Russia’s Entire Oil Refining Industry Faces Collapse Within a Year

Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has shifted from symbolic raids to a systematic dismantling of one of the Kremlin’s most important industries. In just the past 45 days, Ukrainian drones have struck 12 refineries, pushing nearly a quarter of Russia’s total refining capacity offline. The scale and tempo suggest that Russia’s fuel production is not facing a slow erosion, but a rapid breakdown.

Russia operates roughly 30 major refineries, with Kirishi, Tuapse, Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, and Ufa among the most strategically vital. At the current strike rate—averaging nearly eight refineries hit per month—Ukraine could target the entire refinery network within six months.

From early 2024 into 2025, Ukraine demonstrated the ability to strike refineries deep inside Russian territory. But the escalation since midsummer 2025 has been unprecedented. Satellite data, local reports, and even reluctant admissions by regional governors confirm that fires and production stoppages have become routine. The strikes are no longer isolated incidents—they are the shaping of a campaign designed to cripple Russia’s energy backbone.

The consequences for Russia’s economy are profound. Refined products—gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel—are not only critical for domestic use but also among the most profitable export streams. Losing 24% of this capacity means the Kremlin must increasingly export crude oil at steep discounts while cutting back on refined exports that normally generate higher margins.

For ordinary Russians, the effects are already being felt. Gasoline shortages and price spikes have appeared in multiple regions. Transport costs are rising, feeding inflation across agriculture, food distribution, and manufacturing. In a country where oil and gas account for a third of federal budget revenues, shrinking refinery output cuts directly into Moscow’s ability to finance both its war and basic state functions.

Repairing damaged refineries is not a quick fix. Sanctions have cut Russia off from many of the Western catalysts, control systems, and parts required for modern refining. As a result, “temporary outages” risk becoming long-term capacity losses, even if facilities are patched together at reduced output.

Fuel is the lifeblood of war. The Russian army requires vast supplies of diesel for tanks and trucks, aviation fuel for jets and helicopters, and kerosene for logistics chains stretching thousands of kilometers. If refinery capacity drops toward 40–50% offline, which is plausible within the next 6–9 months, the Kremlin will be forced to prioritize the military over civilians. That may keep units in the field, but at the cost of civilian anger as fuel queues grow in major cities.

Operationally, the strain will be unmistakable. Reduced aviation sorties, fewer large-scale offensives, and slower logistics are all foreseeable outcomes.

By Spring 2026 (6 months): If the current strike rate holds, 40–50% of capacity could be out.

By Late 2026 (12 months): The refinery sector approaches collapse, with most plants offline or working at minimal throughput.

By 2027: Russia would be structurally dependent on crude exports only, with refined products imported at high cost—an inversion of its traditional economic model.

This is not speculation but an extrapolation from existing data. With 12 refineries hit in 45 days, the tempo of destruction is already outpacing Moscow’s capacity to adapt.

Ukraine’s refinery campaign attacks an Achilles’ heel that Russia cannot easily protect or replace. Unlike tanks or soldiers, refineries are immobile, highly complex, and globally interconnected. Each successful strike erodes both Moscow’s financial base and its ability to sustain modern war.

If the pace continues, Russia’s refinery industry could be functionally broken within a year. That would mean not only a weaker military but also a weaker state, facing inflation, rationing, and mounting discontent at home.

The fires burning over Kirishi, Ufa, and Tuapse are more than tactical successes—they are signals of a strategic collapse already underway.

[Saradain]

Russia stronk.

Russia trying to buy air defense systems back from Turkey it sold them to in 2019.

Peskov: NATO is de facto at war with Russia.

Sounds like victory, alright. No russian goons shitposting in this thread either for a while, guaranteed sign of hard-won successes.

[alach]

A few interesting stories today. First up the big one, was that Starlink went out everywhere, but it hit Ukraine pretty hard.

Starlink 'down across the entire front line' in Ukraine as internet service suffers global outage

The stakes are high for Ukraine, as Starlink has replaced much of the country's destroyed communications infrastructure and supports both civilian and military connectivity.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Kyiv has received over 50,000 Starlink terminals, with Poland providing nearly 30,000, the largest contribution by any single country.

Ukraine's reliance on Starlink has previously been complicated by tensions with Musk.

Some messaging notes, not sure how much stock I put in them.

Oh, how I wish he was not a huge drunken liar, so we could just hurry up and end this.
NATO 'at war' with Russia, Kremlin says, as propaganda blitz after Poland drone attack continues

Boris knows whats up,
Exclusive: Boris Johnson calls for NATO troops in Ukraine

Here's what I would call a baby step,
Trump Finally Labels Russia the 'Aggressor'

And finally, some more fallout from the Polish incursion.
Poland calls for NATO-backed no-fly zone over Ukraine

Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said shielding Ukraine from Russian drone attacks would protect the rest of Europe, too, amid concerns over the war’s spread.

In remarks published Monday, the foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, told the German news outlet Frankfurter Allgemeiner that the idea was broached a year ago with the Biden administration but that it could not be carried out just by Poland, and would need the support of other European allies.

“We as NATO and the E.U. could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said. “Protection for our population — for example, from falling debris — would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory.”

“If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it,” he added.

I have a strange feeling we are heading into the endgame with this. I don't know why, it could be the oil refineries, or trump, or China, or Europe, but it just feels different than the last couple years. Sure, there is still way to much talk, but things are happening. From new weapons factories being built across the country, to Ukraine's mastery over drone technology, or some anecdotal evidence that some of the Russian population is becoming war weary, I will place a bet this won't last another twelves months. Who comes out with what, now that is the question.

Russia stronk.

Russia trying to buy air defense systems back from Turkey it sold them to in 2019.

Peskov: NATO is de facto at war with Russia.

Sounds like victory, alright. No russian goons shitposting in this thread either for a while, guaranteed sign of hard-won successes.

Nice timing

[Iphie]

Peskov: NATO is de facto at war with Russia.

How many times have they said this now? and do they really want NATO to take that statement as an invitation to really flex it's might?

[Saradain]

How many times have they said this now? and do they really want NATO to take that statement as an invitation to really flex it's might?

Nazi Russia wants to garner pity with the statement, alongside domestic propaganda of course. Sadly world is full of 3rd world countries who believe Russia's plight story.