Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Endus]

To those who keep saying Russia is doing fine in this war. There is no reason to doubt US intelligence about this war sofar. They have been entirely on the money and when they say Russia was hoping for a quick 3-4 day war and that they have yet to meet any of their strategic objectives I see no reason to doubt them. Sure Russia hasn't 'lost'. But objectively this war has been a complete failure sofar.

Like I said; you don't assess "success" in a war by looking at troop deployments.

You assess it based on successful achievement of long-term goals.

This is why it's fairly trivial to determine that the USA conclusively lost both the Vietnam War and the War in Afghanistan more recently; they went into a region with specific goals of long-term regime change/establishment, and eventually had to cut and retreat without achieving anything of long-term note. That's not a stalemate or a compromise; it's a straight-up loss.

This isn't about getting Russian materiel and troops into Ukraine. It's about long-term holding of some meaningful portion of Ukraine, or managing to convert their government into a puppet state for Russia. The presence of Russian tanks and troops and so forth in major cities matters precisely as little as it did for Americans in Afghanistan or Vietnam; what matters is achieving the long-term objectives. Failure to do so just means you're adding up a pointless body count and spending billions you'll never get back.

[Easo]

So, Belarus legally already declared war against Ukraine by having hostile troops enter Ukraine from their side of the border. Now, they keep firing missiles from their soil to Ukraine.

Can we just send NATO and EU army in Belarus to liberate them? Sure, Putin not gonna be happy but then we're just doing the same as they surely are, liberating

CSTO

People, please, at least have a cursory knowledge...

In response Russia will close their airspace, and that means EU airlines have to pay quite a bit more to reach Asia.

Flight times will increase a lot. Also, prepare for funny talks with Iran.

[Gaidax]

They need to keep fighting or they'll end in my situation.

That's nice, but just like you half a decade ago - people don't want to end up dead and their lives and homes shattered.

It's a simple reality of it.

I bet you guys did not fight back then not because you're timid, but because you got taken over by overwhelming power - i.e. Caucasian mercs with guns that installed themselves as a "government".

[Khaza-R]

To those who keep saying Russia is doing fine in this war. There is no reason to doubt US intelligence about this war sofar. They have been entirely on the money and when they say Russia was hoping for a quick 3-4 day war and that they have yet to meet any of their strategic objectives I see no reason to doubt them. Sure Russia hasn't 'lost'. But objectively this war has been a complete failure sofar.

I think the issue is that some people are minimizing the long term impacts to Ukraine. A Russian failure still isn't good for Ukraine. Best case scenario for them is being locked in a forever war and Russia retreating to the Donetsk and Luhansk. Where they will never get that area back.

[Makabreska]

Zelenskyy emerges as global hero in Ukraine battle against Russia

Best part is, the dude is not even a politician. He is a comedian who decided to run for the office.

[Easo]

That's nice, but just like you half a decade ago - people don't want to end up dead and their lives and homes shattered.

It's a simple reality of it.

I bet you guys did not fight back then not because you're timid, but because you got taken over by overwhelming power - i.e. Caucasian mercs with guns that installed themselves as a "government".

Nah, it was mostly local morons. Some of them - yeah, should have been in prison long before...
Actual, real involvement happened later, when Ukraine's armed forces made the big attempt to encircle rebels all along Russian border. We know how that ended.

[Saradain]

CSTO

People, please, at least have a cursory knowledge...

Sorry, I don't pay attention to enemies of life having a right to any kind of alliances. I knew my post would attract replies, but at this point if Russia isn't following any kind of rules and brazenly doing whatever the fuck they want, why can't we?

[Shadowferal]

Sorry, I don't pay attention to enemies of life having a right to any kind of alliances. I knew my post would attract replies, but at this point if Russia isn't following any kind of rules and brazenly doing whatever the fuck they want, why can't we?

Because you don't want an escalation.

[Saradain]

Because you don't want an escalation.

Illegally fabricating a false casus belli over several years while annexing places time after time and then waging war on civilians in Ukraine is not an escalation?

[Easo]

Sorry, I don't pay attention to enemies of life having a right to any kind of alliances. I knew my post would attract replies, but at this point if Russia isn't following any kind of rules and brazenly doing whatever the fuck they want, why can't we?

Because that is war with Russia. CSTO is the same thing and idea as NATO.
Do start paying more attention, please.

[Gaidax]

Best part is, the dude is not even a politician. He is a comedian who decided to run for the office.

I super enjoyed his comedy series btw, watching it native and all.

He does a good job, IMO first good Ukrainian president in a while... if ever. Unfortunate that elites and oligarchs are too strong and unbeatable so it's not quite like in that series.

You can see it all on YouTube btw, I think they got english CC. Actually funny, although you need to understand how Ukraine works a bit.

[Slant]

Flight times will increase a lot. Also, prepare for funny talks with Iran.

EU-Iran relations are on significantly better terms than US-Iran relations. Sure, there's going to be talks, but it'll be resolved rather quickly and amicably for both sides.

[Voidism]

Anyone else got a feeling Putin has gotten some disease? Like, has a few months left to live and is going all in etc.

He has always been cool, but this is so... erratic.

[Easo]

EU-Iran relations are on significantly better terms than US-Iran relations. Sure, there's going to be talks, but it'll be resolved rather quickly and amicably for both sides.

I simply meant prepare for concessions regarding sanctions to be able to use their airspace without issues. We will need it now.

Anyone else got a feeling Putin has gotten some disease? Like, has a few months left to live and is going all in etc.

He has always been cool, but this is so... erratic.

I really do not think he is erratic. But there have been couple of cursory reports regarding that. He is 69 years old. People can and do chance with old age.

[Saradain]

Because that is war with Russia. CSTO is the same thing and idea as NATO.
Do start paying more attention, please.

Very well. I guess fuck Ukraine, we ain't gonna do much for them even we have all the power and means to do so :/

To me, we should all already BE in a war with Russia, Putin doesn't seem like a sensible guy who totally won't threaten with nukes and actually use them at this point, no matter if its just Ukraine defending against their invasion, or entire world!

Edit: This CSTO only seems to have rather insignificant countries military-wise, and Kazakstan already turned their backs to Russia. And Belarus already being in a war against Ukraine sans official declaration, so they're already 33% engaged in this war

[Slant]

Best part is, the dude is not even a politician. He is a comedian who decided to run for the office.

That's probably his strength. He seems fairly incorruptible. And he happens to have Ukraine in his mind at the top of the list. Not himself. If he survives this and Ukraine wins this conflict, he'll be President for life. The only thing he could do to top it off is solidify the democratic structure and step down with a solid democracy as his legacy.

[P for Pancetta]

Like I said; you don't assess "success" in a war by looking at troop deployments.

You assess it based on successful achievement of long-term goals.

This is why it's fairly trivial to determine that the USA conclusively lost both the Vietnam War and the War in Afghanistan more recently; they went into a region with specific goals of long-term regime change/establishment, and eventually had to cut and retreat without achieving anything of long-term note. That's not a stalemate or a compromise; it's a straight-up loss.

This isn't about getting Russian materiel and troops into Ukraine. It's about long-term holding of some meaningful portion of Ukraine, or managing to convert their government into a puppet state for Russia. The presence of Russian tanks and troops and so forth in major cities matters precisely as little as it did for Americans in Afghanistan or Vietnam; what matters is achieving the long-term objectives. Failure to do so just means you're adding up a pointless body count and spending billions you'll never get back.

Yeah but with the losses the Russian army is currently sustaining, the desertions happening, the refusal of contract soldiers to be deployed in Ukraine because it's not explicitly part of their contact. The bank run and the international sanctions. Putin has already lost more then he will ever gain from this conflict before his death, he's almost 70.

[Slant]

Sorry, I don't pay attention to enemies of life having a right to any kind of alliances. I knew my post would attract replies, but at this point if Russia isn't following any kind of rules and brazenly doing whatever the fuck they want, why can't we?

Because we're better than that. That is the entire premise of this.

[TirielWoW]

Anyone else got a feeling Putin has gotten some disease? Like, has a few months left to live and is going all in etc.

He has always been cool, but this is so... erratic.

If you've been paying attention to the guy, it's not erratic at all. I'm pretty sure he really thought the Ukrainians would either roll over or greet his troops with flowers.

So it's not that he's behaving erratically. It's that he greatly underestimated the dedication of the Ukrainian people to keeping their self-determination.

- - - Updated - - -

Very well. I guess fuck Ukraine, we ain't gonna do much for them even we have all the power and means to do so :/

To me, we should all already BE in a war with Russia, Putin doesn't seem like a sensible guy who totally won't threaten with nukes and actually use them at this point, no matter if its just Ukraine defending against their invasion, or entire world!

The thing is, we're trying to avoid an actual nuclear confrontation. We could smash Russia's conventional army with NATO, but if we did, you know he'd fall back on his nukes. And they wouldn't just go for Ukraine.

[Jessicka]

So Belarus offered talks, then promptly launched a ballistic missile strike against civilians. Brilliant.