Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

It doesn't make sense anymore. On one hand Russia is performing terribly and actually losing on Ukraine. On the other hand, it will invade NATO and Europe next year.

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1990353950705414301

And yet here you are still spewing the same nonsense.

Clearly self reflection is not your strong point.

[Kaleredar]

It doesn't make sense anymore. On one hand Russia is performing terribly and actually losing on Ukraine. On the other hand, it will invade NATO and Europe next year.

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1990353950705414301

You, much like Russia, vastly overestimate how much the US/NATO thinks about Russia.

If Russia had stayed its little authoritarian dictatorship with Putin and his cronies in charge and stuck to themselves neither NATO nor the EU nor the US would be thinking about them at all. Europe would still be happily buying fuel from them. Only when Putin fancied himself the remaker of the USSR and invaded Ukraine to steal its territory and brutalize its citizens did anyone even bother taking notice.

Look at North Korea; they’re a fully autocratic dictatorship that treats their people dreadfully, constantly rave about the evils of the west, and regularly threatens both South Korea and the US with violence. But neither NATO nor the US nor the EU give a flying fuck about North Korea.

This “the US/NATO/EU is poised to invade Russia” is and always has been nothing more than rank Russian propaganda to try and rationalize them pillaging Ukraine and wantonly murdering its people. And you’ve let your hatred of Europe and the US for their imagined slights against Greece of all places trick you into believing the only country actually invading anyone right now.

[Wilian]

Chasiv Yar, Bahkmut, Avdiivka.

But really those are the long drawn out battles that lasted months.

None of those were strategic losses. They were just losses. Primarily losses to Russia and Wagner specifically in Bahkmut.

Railroad in Poland was sabotaged. Suspects are, let's say, usual.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...latest-updates

Make that three railroads over the weekend that has been attacked or attempted to in Poland by Russia.

[alach]

None of those were strategic losses. They were just losses. Primarily losses to Russia and Wagner specifically in Bahkmut.



Make that three railroads over the weekend that has been attacked or attempted to in Poland by Russia.

I don't believe Pokrovsk is a strategic loss any more. It sucks for sure, but it did its job, it held back the Russians for over a year, giving Ukraine more than enough time to set up defenses in the back. If it takes russia another year to move another 165skm they are going to be busy a long time.

[Wilian]

I don't believe Pokrovsk is a strategic loss any more. It sucks for sure, but it did its job, it held back the Russians for over a year, giving Ukraine more than enough time to set up defenses in the back. If it takes russia another year to move another 165skm they are going to be busy a long time.

Well it definately is a strategic loss because it is/was the lifeline of fronts in that direction. The slow deterioration of the situation to a point that it is not "as important of a loss anymore" as it was, say few months ago is a case of it's own really. As it stands, it's the first notable loss of logistics hub that supplied area of operations for what was considered the fortress region protecting the three remaining major Donetsk cities Ukraine has which now faces potential capture. Beyond the town itself, resourcing those defensive lines that have been built behind it, will be more difficult as there's no similiar hub nearby.

[Elder Millennial]

Well it definately is a strategic loss because it is/was the lifeline of fronts in that direction. The slow deterioration of the situation to a point that it is not "as important of a loss anymore" as it was, say few months ago is a case of it's own really. As it stands, it's the first notable loss of logistics hub that supplied area of operations for what was considered the fortress region protecting the three remaining major Donetsk cities Ukraine has which now faces potential capture. Beyond the town itself, resourcing those defensive lines that have been built behind it, will be more difficult as there's no similiar hub nearby.

Pokrovsk hasn't been a functional hub for anything in over a year, and unless the Russians manage to push the Ukrainians back another 40+km to push them out of artillery and midsized drone range, it absolutely won't be a hub for anything either in the foreseeable future.

No Ukrainian train or truck bigger than a pickup truck or a minivan went past of Serhiivka in a year, because it would have instantly gotten hit by artillery, drone strike, airstrike.

The problem isn't with the rail, it's with the loss of the M-30 road that runs through Pokrovsk into Myrnohrad, which basically left the city connected to Ukraine by nothing but a couple of bombed out 2 way streets and agricultural dirt roads, even that wouldn't be that big of an issue if not for the fact that all those roads are within a square km on open fields flanked on both sides by Russian positions.

I'm honestly not sure what the fuck Ukrainian command is doing not evacuating Myrnohrad. Unless they have some kind of plan to retake Rodynske.

[Dontrike]

It doesn't make sense anymore. On one hand Russia is performing terribly and actually losing on Ukraine. On the other hand, it will invade NATO and Europe next year.

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1990353950705414301

And I'm sure Russian soldiers will be using tin can armor while riding on bicycles at that point.

[alach]

Frontline report: Ukraine’s elite drone units inflict massive casualties on Russian forces in Pokrovsk

Ukrainian command deployed some of their most lethal drone units to hunt down Russian infiltrators inside Pokrovsk, with special forces proving their effectiveness by dealing the enemy some of their worst losses in the biggest drone massacre of the war.

Overall, the deployment of Ukraine's most advanced drone units to Pokrovsk demonstrates exactly how seriously Ukraine takes its defense. During his frontline visit, Zelensky said clearly that Pokrovsk is Ukraine, this is Ukraine's east, and the leadership of the country will do everything to keep it Ukrainian.

Russia may control 81% of Donetsk and nearly all of Luhansk but taking the fortified towns in northern Donetsk will cost an enormous amount of manpower and equipment.

The Pokrovsk Myrnohrad agglomeration is now a fortress defended not only by infantry but by the most lethal, coordinated drone network Ukraine has deployed since the start of the war, leading to the biggest drone massacre.

Site is a little bias, they cheerlead hard for Ukraine (not that there is anything wrong with that.) But the point is, Pokrovsk still hasn't fallen, its still costing the russians. It is still doing its job.

Breaking news, Updated;

10 killed, 86 injured as Russia launches mass attack on multiple Ukrainian regions, including western ones, causing power outages

Russia carried out a mass overnight attack on multiple Ukrainian regions on Nov. 19, leaving at least 10 civilians dead and 86 injured, and triggering widespread infrastructure damage and power outages.

Russian forces struck Ukraine with more than 470 drones and 48 missiles of various types, including ballistic and cruise missiles, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Around midnight local time, Russian drones attacked the city of Kharkiv, injuring at least 46 people, including two girls aged 9 and 13, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov.

The Slobidskyi and Osnovianskyi districts were targeted, with Russian forces launching 19 Geran-2 drones. The strikes damaged a high-rise residential building, a hospital, and a school.

Oblasts in western Ukraine, including Ternopil and Lviv, located over 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) from the front line and the Russian border, were also affected.

Its a big one. The casualty numbers continue to rise. Big, strong russia continues to show the world how good it is at making war against residential world, while the world changes the channel.

Poland scrambles jets after Russian strikes on Ukraine, armed forces say
A day after,
Poland blames Russian intelligence for blast on railway line to Ukraine

Polish prosecutors have initiated an investigation into "acts of sabotage of a terrorist nature" committed for the benefit of foreign intelligence.
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday that Russian intelligence services orchestrated an explosion on a railway line used to transport aid to Ukraine, carried out by two Ukrainian nationals working as their agents.

"The identified perpetrators are two Ukrainian citizens who have been cooperating with Russian intelligence services for a long time. Their identities are known," Tusk told lawmakers in the parliament in Warsaw.

[Deus Mortis]

Frontline report: Ukraine’s elite drone units inflict massive casualties on Russian forces in Pokrovsk


Site is a little bias, they cheerlead hard for Ukraine (not that there is anything wrong with that.) But the point is, Pokrovsk still hasn't fallen, its still costing the russians. It is still doing its job.

EuroMaiden is not a good site for what is actually happening on the front. Those maps they show have not been the actual maps for a long time now, like probably close to a month or more outdated. This was the situation 3 days ago with Pokrovsk looking like it is 99% under Russian control vs EuroMaiden which shows half the city left.

https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/19...719811/photo/1 AMK mapping is one of the few independent pro Ukraine mappers that actually gives a realistic view of what is happening on the front.

[LeGin v4]

Its a big one. The casualty numbers continue to rise. Big, strong russia continues to show the world how good it is at making war against residential world, while the world changes the channel.

Yep. People are switching off. Even in the pro-Ukraine community here. 25 killed in a cruise missile attack on a block of flats, ffs

There was also this, which was headline news (I guess a bit closer to home than 25 dead Ukrainians in Ternopil):

Russian spy ship pointed lasers at RAF pilots tracking it, says UK

[Corvus]

Sounds like Trump is back to selling out Ukraine again. Reportedly us and russian officials have met and worked out a 'peace plan' which pretty much gives russia what they want, requires Ukraine to limit its army and long range strike weapons (the ones wrecking russias oil industry) and all Ukraine gets is 'trust us bro, we won't invade again.' Budapest memorandum 2.0 basically.

[DarkTZeratul]

I wanna know why every single peace deal is focused on what Ukraine has to accept for peace, instead of what Russia has to accept for peace.

(To be clear, this is mostly rhetorical)

[Elder Millennial]

Sounds like Trump is back to selling out Ukraine again. Reportedly us and russian officials have met and worked out a 'peace plan' which pretty much gives russia what they want, requires Ukraine to limit its army and long range strike weapons (the ones wrecking russias oil industry) and all Ukraine gets is 'trust us bro, we won't invade again.' Budapest memorandum 2.0 basically.

1. It's a rumor.
2. Nobody is accepting that.
3. After insulting the Ukrainians again for a couple of weeks, and after all the European and NATO leaders fly to DC again and have another "intervention" for Trump, the US will do a 180 again...especially after the Russians do something to annoy Trump again.

Also, it's unclear what if any talks are happening and between who.

Lavrov has been MIA since the collapse of the Budapest meeting. Rubio hasn't met the Russians either.

If there's been anyone talking to the Russians, really the only real suspect would be Witkoff. And let's just say, Witkoff's "positions" aren't exactly representative of the positions of the US security apparatus.

Also important to mention.

Due to all the fucking around Trump has been doing with Ukraine, the US has significantly less leverage over Ukraine today than it had a year ago.

It very very very likely Ukraine could simply just carry on without any US weapon sales. Again...there's no aid coming from the US anymore. Only weapon sales paid for by the Europeans.

[Gorsameth]

I wanna know why every single peace deal is focused on what Ukraine has to accept for peace, instead of what Russia has to accept for peace.

(To be clear, this is mostly rhetorical)

It is rhetorical but we do now have a better idea of the reason why it is so lobsided.

Its Putins pictures of Trump blowing Bubba

[Deus Mortis]

It very very very likely Ukraine could simply just carry on without any US weapon sales. Again...there's no aid coming from the US anymore. Only weapon sales paid for by the Europeans.

I keep seeing people say this constantly when it is nothing further from the truth. The amount of info the US gives from our satellites and all our spy planes that constantly fly near the black sea is invaluable. There are reasons Ukraine is able to penetrate so far into Russia while avoiding air defense. Then you add in the fact of starlink which has helped Ukraine a huge amount. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news...ssian-missiles

Then you have stuff like this.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...-in-u-s-policy
Ukraine’s Claimed ATACMS Strike In Russia Signals Major Shift In U.S. Policy

Ukraine announced it launched Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles at military targets in Russia. The attack appears to be the first use of these U.S.-made weapons into Russia under the Trump administration. It also points to the strong possibility that another batch of the prized missiles have been supplied to Ukraine, which is noteworthy in itself due to the limited U.S. stocks of the weapons, and/or that the White House has approved the type’s use once again.

PS: In the article it is stated that Russian MOD released video of them destroying the launchers but the footage they released was from 2024.

[alach]

What a fucking joke this is, and the second time these sleezelords have tried to do this behind closed doors.

New Trump peace proposal for Ukraine would require land concessions and military reduction, source says

A new peace proposal for Ukraine drafted by the Trump administration would require the country to cede the eastern Donbas region and to limit the size of its military in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, according to a Western official familiar with the document.

The 28-point plan, which President Donald Trump has reviewed, is the White House’s latest attempt to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to an end. Some of the proposal’s provisions — including territorial concessions in areas not currently held by Russia — have previously been nonstarters with the Ukrainians. But US officials see a new window of opportunity to restart peace discussions.

The plan is still in the framework stage, and its many points haven’t been finalized. CNN has not reviewed the proposal and has reached out to the White House for comment on it.

Peace plan that for all intents and purposes is a full Ukraine surrender. There is no way Europe will accept this, there is no way Ukraine will accept this, and Witkoff better learn you can't make deals without consulting all involved.

[Deus Mortis]

What a fucking joke this is, and the second time these sleezelords have tried to do this behind closed doors.

New Trump peace proposal for Ukraine would require land concessions and military reduction, source says

Peace plan that for all intents and purposes is a full Ukraine surrender. There is no way Europe will accept this, there is no way Ukraine will accept this, and Witkoff better learn you can't make deals without consulting all involved.

Yeah it is an awful deal which Ukraine should decline. Rumors are it would be a 2.5x reduction/limit on forces. No foreign troops, no long range ammo, etc. It is everything that would kneecap Ukraine when Russia rebuilds and tries again. I think the stated above is probably worse than the land concessions even as awful as that is. The agreement gives Russia the Donbas which sadly Ukraine only controls 14.5% of now. https://www.twz.com/news-features/as...ur-peace-talks

[Vampiregenesis]

Trump said to Zelensky that this is his last chance to achieve peace and if he refuse it then he won't be able to negotiate later. I guess Zelensky is betting that Europe will save him somehow, although the aid he receives is barely enough. Russia has the momentum right now.

I read everywhere from legit sources that Ukraine has made a lot and serious strategical errors in the battlefield (some are attributed to US Generals) and it's the corruption too. The counterattack on 2023 and the Kursk invasion were major mistakes, also most are saying that they commit too much on lost cases like Bakhmut, I don't understand what they mean but the popular opinion is that Ukraine is following a very bad defensive pattern that keeps costing them cities. I don't know what they could do better but this is what everyone believes.

Ukraine had a much better chance in this war but it was not a healthy state prior to the war, too much corruption, mediocre generals, they allowed too many young to escape and refuse to conscript younger people. Under normal circumstances, this could turn very costly for Russia. Ukraine was almost like a superpower with the amount of support it received and had a lot of time to prepare for the inevitable.

[Edge-]

Trump said

are we still believing taco trump?

then he won't be able to negotiate later.

he's not negotiating now so...?

I read everywhere from legit sources

sources, of course, not linked. but surely they were very legit indeed

I don't understand what they mean.

yet you want to share your hot-takes on it? i mean, "mistakes are made in war" is sure sensational news i guess? do you reckon russia has made any mistakes on their end in this special 3-day operation?

I don't know what they could do better but this is what everyone believes.

everyone believes this

people are saying this

very smart people

everywhere

just not named or shared here

Under normal circumstances, this could turn very costly for Russia.

this has already been very costly for russia lmao

your takes detached from reality continue to be amusing, if nothing else

[alach]

Makes total sense to me. Glad he is listening to 'some guys' and 'trumps friends' and 'everyone says'
I'm sold!