Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elder Millennial]

If a war breaks out while Trump is in charge, the US will be on the front lines fighting with Russia.

No. The understanding of what Russia represents and that the Russian government as is hates the very concept of America is pretty deep institutionally.

For every moron who likes the Russians there are 3 people who understand who the Russians really are.

The issue is that it would be completely impossible to get anything resembling a coordinated, coherent and effective and most importantly TIMELY response out of the United States government as things stand now.

And that problem wouldn't be fixed even if the Republicans get wiped out in a landslide in the midterms. Even chain impeaching and removing everyone down to the Speaker of the House wouldn't fix the problem.

The one thing the EU and NATO can rely on right now is that they can't rely on the US for anything. Not troops, no aid, no intelligence, no supplies, not even paid for weapons shipments or even the logistical support for the already purchased and in stock weapon systems.

[Wilian]

Germany made decision on Friday to increase their army into 260k troops and 200k reserve by 2035. So by 2035, Germany will still have smaller army than Finland and they are meant to be future backbone of European military efforts by their own words. I know ramping up will take time but this is kind of sad. European re-armament is way too slow for the challenges of next five years.

[Fugus]

Germany made decision on Friday to increase their army into 260k troops and 200k reserve by 2035. So by 2035, Germany will still have smaller army than Finland and they are meant to be future backbone of European military efforts by their own words. I know ramping up will take time but this is kind of sad. European re-armament is way too slow for the challenges of next five years.

Not bothering to fact check you on this but taking what you just said at face value and assuming those numbers are correct let’s look at this.

The US military has around 1.35 million active duty military across all branches and professions across the globe.

The EU isn’t a country but a coalition of 27 countries of which Germany is one of them.

So, a single nation in the EU is taking about having just under a fifth of the US military soldiers with 26 other nations also adding to that force and you don’t see them as doing enough….

[Elder Millennial]

Germany made decision on Friday to increase their army into 260k troops and 200k reserve by 2035. So by 2035, Germany will still have smaller army than Finland and they are meant to be future backbone of European military efforts by their own words. I know ramping up will take time but this is kind of sad. European re-armament is way too slow for the challenges of next five years.

The benefit of creating an actual real EU military, with the national militaries taking a US style "National Guard" type role would really fix this issue in one fell swoop.

Military recruitment in the US is not proportional to the states share of the total population either. The US military predominantly recruits from the poor southern states where military service is also more culturally encouraged.

A standardized EU wide military paid like a French, German or even Spanish military would have a much easier time meeting recruitment quotas from Eastern Europe where that pay and career path is much more appealing and where society broadly remains more bellicose.

Not to mention other elements like eliminating redundant duplicate roles and logistics through a unified command and logistical structure and how unified budgets could allow the EU much bigger purchasing and modernization programs.

Of course, this is a pipe dream because about a third of Europe is hard stuck in the glory days of the 19th century where brave riflemen fended off the invading army of their next door neighbors (also mostly brave riflemen) or when the world was shaking in the boots at the sight of the technological superiority of European ...machine guns and steam ships.

If people would be capable of wrapping their peanut brains around the actual realities in which they live in the European Union would have had a unified army the day before yesterday, yesterday it would have started leveraging British and French shipyards and would be churning out carriers and nuclear subs and it would be starting a nuclear program today.

All the while somehow actually not having to add a single cent more to military spending.

[Iphie]

Not bothering to fact check you on this but taking what you just said at face value and assuming those numbers are correct let’s look at this.

The US military has around 1.35 million active duty military across all branches and professions across the globe.

The EU isn’t a country but a coalition of 27 countries of which Germany is one of them.

So, a single nation in the EU is taking about having just under a fifth of the US military soldiers with 26 other nations also adding to that force and you don’t see them as doing enough….

He's playing a bit with numbers, active duty in peace time is about 25000, wartime is 260000, and there's 900000 in reserves. Artillery is...well let's just say that you don't want to get into an artillery duel with Finland.

[DarkTZeratul]

If a war breaks out while Trump is in charge, the US will be on the front lines fighting with Russia.

While the political will among Republicans doesn't really exist to support Ukraine, the political will to actually put boots on the ground aiding Russia really doesn't exist among anyone, for many of the same reasons PLUS a disdain for Russia among many of the older Senators PLUS the fact that everyone fully understands sending our troops into active battle is political suicide. If war breaks out while Trump is in charge, expect the US to stay the fuck out of it entirely.

[Nymrohd]

Germany made decision on Friday to increase their army into 260k troops and 200k reserve by 2035. So by 2035, Germany will still have smaller army than Finland and they are meant to be future backbone of European military efforts by their own words. I know ramping up will take time but this is kind of sad. European re-armament is way too slow for the challenges of next five years.

What are the chances these decisions stick around? Merz is so damn unpopular.

[Elder Millennial]

What are the chances these decisions stick around? Merz is so damn unpopular.

Merz didn't make the decision personally. It was voted for by parliament. It got passed by a 40 vote margin..so about 8%. It was supported by the CDU, CSU and the SPD, so both the center left and right. The parties that voted against it were the AfD, Die Linke (the horseshoe theory never fails whenever Russia is involved) and The Green Party, which was honestly a fairly ambivalent no, as they actually voted absent on an earlier vote that was a prerequisite for passing the military expansion bill.

It's more like they both understood that their base is full of fucking morons who will close nuclear powerplants to mine and burn more coal in the name of environmentalism, but the politicians themselves understand the necessity and blocking it wasn't a hill they were looking to die on.

There's no combination of parties that could form a coalition that would run on overturning this.

[alach]

So since the release of the new National Security Strategy and a series of interviews over the weekend, Trump has gone full mask off, labeling the Europeans as weak and unfriendly as nations and showing interest in welcoming russia as a partner. He has openly committed treason and is a threat to all democratic nations. The west needs to unite and treat the American Administration as a hostile force.
This is not what the majority of Americans wanted either, trump is dragging the US into the shit and piss from every direction.

[Specialka]

Found that funny : https://nitter.poast.org/Daractenus/...137306360?s=20

A bit of humor never kiilled anyone ... Well not always !

[Deus Mortis]

Another shadow fleet tanker has been hit by multiple sea drones.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...ussian_shadow/

But in disappointing news.
https://www.kielinstitut.de/publicat...t-us-aid-drop/
Ukraine Support Tracker: Europe fails to offset US aid drop

After a record-high first half of 2025, military aid had already fallen sharply over the summer—a trend that has now continued into September and October. At the current rate, military aid allocations fall short of what would be needed to replace missing US support. While annual allocations averaged roughly EUR 41.6 billion in 2022–2024 (including Europe, the US, and other donors), only EUR 32.5 billion has been allocated so far in 2025. To reach previous levels, an additional EUR 9.1 billion would need to be allocated by year-end, requiring a monthly allocation rate more than twice as high as in recent months.

“Based on the data available through October, Europe has not been able to sustain the momentum of the first half of 2025,” says Professor Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker. “The recent slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully offset the absence of US military aid in 2025. If this slower pace continues in the remaining months, 2025 will become the year with the lowest level of new aid allocations ever for Ukraine since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022.”

Although Europe’s overall military support is slowing down, developments varied significantly across the major economies. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom increased their military allocations sharply compared to 2022–2024: Germany nearly tripled its average monthly allocations, while France and the UK each more than doubled theirs. Even so, measured relative to their 2021 GDP, all three remained well below the leading Nordic donors Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. To reach Nordic levels, Europe’s largest economies would need to scale up their contributions substantially.

The contrast with Italy and Spain was even stronger: neither increased its military allocations in 2025. Italy reduced its already low allocation levels by 15 percent compared to 2022–2024, and Spain recorded no new military aid in 2025. This limited engagement significantly weakened Europe’s overall response.

“The higher allocations from France, Germany, and the UK are significant,” says Taro Nishikawa, project lead of the Ukraine Support Tracker. “But even these three still trail the Nordic countries in relative terms. Meanwhile, the decline of support from Spain and Italy is a notable setback, reinforcing the importance of more balanced burden-sharing across Europe.”

[alach]

Guys, trump tried everything! He tried having a bro-meeting with putin in Alaska. He tried to surrender Ukraine to putin. He tried make business deals in Moscow, he tried everything! But I guess it is just impossible to make peace, if only Ukraine would give up its existence. So, it only makes sense, that he is done trying.

US may end support for Ukraine war effort, says Donald Trump Jr
(remember, they are barely supporting as it is at the moment, they are playing arms merchant and helping with intel.)

Donald Trump may walk away from the Ukrainian war, the US president’s oldest son has said in comments to a Middle East conference.

In a lengthy tirade against the purpose of continued fighting in Ukraine, Donald Trump Jr also said Ukraine’s “corrupt” rich had fled their country leaving “what they believed to be the peasant class” to fight the war.

Trump Jr has no formal role inside his father’s administration, but is a key figure in the Maga movement. His intervention reflects the antipathy among some inside the Trump team towards the Ukrainian government, and comes as Trump’s negotiating team is putting pressure on Kyiv to give up territory.

So then trump is all, Ukraine has a corruption problem, lack of elections also questions democracy in the country
To which Zelensky responds with, Ukraine is 'ready for elections' if partners guarantee security
Hes asking for a chance for the west to help protect his citizens from being bombed while choosing a new government. Doesn't seem to me like a huge ask. Also, the dude is tired, Zelensky looks like he has aged 40 years in the last 4. He is dealing with an invasion and 10 years of trump. That's rough, just ask Trevor Noah, he couldn't handle more than 5 years.

Anyways! Europe has sent the peace deal back to trump, and the wheel will continue to turn with zero results. Any action is even less likely now that trump is openly hostile to Europe and his NATO allies.
Ukraine war: Trump criticises European leaders on eve of crunch coalition meeting

President says there were ‘strong words’ in latest call, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy to join other European leaders to discuss peace plan on Thursday

Not a great time to be a supporter of freedom and Democracy. Fight like hell for 3 years to end like this...

The American people really fucked the rest of us over.

[Dontrike]

Russia seems to be making AI deepfakes of Ukrainian soldiers "crying and apologizing for Russia for their government causing this to happen." I'm only surprised this took this long for this to happen.

The videos began to circulate on social media in early November: Ukrainian soldiers appearing to weep and surrender on the front lines.

To the naked eye, they look real, mirroring many of the videos that have emerged from the region during years of conflict. Few have telltale signs of manipulation.

But Aleksei Gubanov, a popular Russian livestreamer who now lives in New York, immediately recognized something fishy: his own face.

“At first I didn’t take it seriously, but soon I noticed how quickly the view count was growing and, even worse, how many people believed these videos were real,” Gubanov said of the videos he saw. “Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of users were leaving comments expressing condolences to the supposedly Ukrainian soldiers in the videos and directing anger toward the Ukrainian leadership.”

Gubanov, who streams video games and chatting on Twitch and fled Russia due to his criticism of President Vladimir Putin, has never served in the armed forces, let alone in the Ukrainian army. What his followers had flagged was an AI-generated video that used his likeness to spread a false narrative about morale among Ukrainian troops.

“We were taken to draft commission and sent here. Now we are being taken to Pokrovsk. We don’t want to. Please,” the AI-generated Gubanov said in Russian while wearing a uniform with the Ukrainian flag on it. “Mom, Mom, I don’t want!”

The video is one of 21 AI-generated videos of Ukrainian soldiers reviewed by NBC News in recent weeks that appear to have been created or manipulated using advanced artificial intelligence programs, resulting in some so realistic that they offer few hints of their origins.

But in at least half of these videos, a small logo in the corner gives it away: They were made with Sora 2, the latest iteration of OpenAI’s text-to-video generator. Some of the videos generated by Sora used the faces of popular Russian livestreamers, such as Gubanov, in dramatic deepfakes while others show groups of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering to Russian forces en masse.

Those that appear to have been generated by other AI platforms also had very subtle errors that would be challenging for most people to find, such as incorrect or simplified versions of the uniforms and helmets Ukrainian soldiers wear. And to Ukrainians, there’s an obvious issue: The majority of videos feature soldiers speaking Russian, while only eight of the 21 videos feature military personnel speaking Ukrainian.

[Elder Millennial]

Russia seems to be making AI deepfakes of Ukrainian soldiers "crying and apologizing for Russia for their government causing this to happen." I'm only surprised this took this long for this to happen.

They have been doing this for months.

Ironically some of the faces used are known Russian influencers.

[PhaelixWW]

Reuters: Ukraine says underwater drones hit submarine, but Moscow denies damage

Ukraine said on Monday it hit and disabled a Russian missile-carrying submarine docked at a Black Sea naval base using underwater sea drones for the first time, but Moscow denied the strike caused any damage. The attack with Ukrainian-made "Sub Sea Baby" drones hit the submarine in the port of Novorossiysk where Russia has rebased many of its Black Sea naval vessels to put them out of reach of Ukrainian strikes, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said.

Footage published by the SBU showed a powerful explosion erupting from the water at a pier near where a submarine and other vessels were docked. Reuters confirmed the location of the video using the port's layout and piers.

Alexander Kamyshin, an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, wrote on X that it was the first time in history that an underwater drone had neutralised a submarine, a claim rejected outright by Russia's Black Sea Fleet hours later. "None of the ships or submarines of the Black Sea Fleet stationed in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base, nor their crews, were damaged as a result of the sabotage and are on duty as normal," the fleet was quoted as saying by state news agencies.

Ukraine, which has practically no naval fleet left, has used sea drones and missiles to harry Russia's large naval Black Sea Fleet and dislodge it from its perch in the port city of Sevastopol on the occupied peninsula of Crimea.

The diesel-electric submarine was one of many vessels that Russia was forced to move from Crimea to Novorossiysk in southern Russia, the SBU said. The submarine is capable of carrying at least four Kalibr-type cruise missiles, one of the workhorses of Russia's massive strikes that in recent months have inflicted serious damage to the Ukrainian power grid.

The strike comes amid a tense period of U.S.-brokered peace negotiations that have sparked fears among Ukrainians that they will be bullied to accept settlement terms with Russia that they see as tantamount to capitulation. Ukraine has been trying to show it can inflict significant damage on Russia, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Zelenskiy did not "have the cards" in the negotiations.Ukrainian navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said the operation to hit a submarine - which he described as the hardest target to hit - marked "another turning point" in Ukraine's naval battle with Russia. "This day once again upends the perception of the possibilities of naval combat in this war," he told Reuters.

It will be hard for Russia to repair the submarine as that would have to be done above water, which would mean the vessel would again be exposed to attack, he said. Before Russia issued its flat denial, Pletenchuk said Russia had lost one of its four submarines stationed in Novorossiysk, three of which are capable of carrying Kalibr missiles.

Ukraine, which has been developing long-range drone and missile capabilities to narrow the gap with Russia's large weapons arsenal, has been stepping up strikes on Russian oil, gas, power and military targets.

Video via EuroNews:

[PenguinChan]

Video via EuroNews:

How long is it gonna take for the economical turmoil and damages from this war for Russia to surrender you think? Or Putin's death. Russia is doing permanent long-term damage to its economy for decades, and Ukraine is just getting better at fucking them over. Like, I'm amazed a bullet to his brain hasn't happened yet.

[PhaelixWW]

How long is it gonna take for the economical turmoil and damages from this war for Russia to surrender you think? Or Putin's death. Russia is doing permanent long-term damage to its economy for decades, and Ukraine is just getting better at fucking them over. Like, I'm amazed a bullet to his brain hasn't happened yet.

Incidentally, posted today...

BBC: What it would take to stop Putin fighting in Ukraine

...

Trade, sanctions and Russia's economy

Then there's the lever of sanctions. Certainly, Russia's economy is suffering. Inflation at 8%, interest rates 16%, growth slowed, budget deficits soaring, real incomes plunging, consumer taxes rising.

A report for the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform says Russia's war economy is running out of time. "The Russian economy is substantially less able to finance the war than it was at the beginning of it in 2022," the authors say.

But so far none of this appears to have changed much Kremlin thinking, not least because businesses have found ways of evading restrictions, such as transporting oil on unregistered ghost ships.

Tom Keatinge, director of the Centre for Finance and Security at Rusi, said western messaging about sanctions was convoluted and there were too many loopholes.

Russia would, he said, work around recent US sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft, just by re-labelling the exported oil as coming from non-sanctioned companies.

Mr Keatinge said if the West really wanted to hurt Russia's war economy, it would embargo all Russian oil and fully implement secondary sanctions on countries that still buy it. "We need to stop being cute and go full embargo," he said.

"We need to take our implementation of sanctions as seriously as the Kremlin takes circumvention."

In theory, sanctions could also affect Russian public opinion. In October, a survey by the state-run Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) said 56% of respondents said they felt "very tired" of the conflict, up from 47% last year.

But the consensus among Kremlinologists is that much of the Russian public remains supportive of Putin's strategy.

The European Union could agree to use about €200bn (£176bn) of frozen Russian assets to generate a so-called "reparation loan" for Ukraine. The latest European Commission proposal is to raise €90bn (£79bn) over two years.

In Kyiv, officials are already banking on getting the cash. But still the EU hesitates.

Belgium, where the bulk of the Russian assets are held, has long feared being sued by Russia - and on Friday, the Russian Central Bank announced legal action against Belgian bank Euroclear in a Moscow court.

Belgium says it will not agree the loan unless legal and financial risks are shared more explicitly with other EU members. France has concerns, such is its own vast debts, and fears exploiting the frozen assets could undermine the stability of the eurozone.

EU leaders will make a further attempt to agree a deal when they meet in Brussels on 18 December for their final summit before Christmas. But diplomats say there is no guarantee of success.

There is also disagreement over what the cash should be used for: keeping Ukraine's state solvent now or paying for its reconstruction after the war.

...

[DarkTZeratul]

How long is it gonna take for the economical turmoil and damages from this war for Russia to surrender you think? Or Putin's death.

At this point, I'd put money on "Putin's death." Either from normal natural causes, or some sort of horrible freak accident like slipping in the shower and falling out of a window while shooting himself in the back of the head.

[Corvus]

No way the sub was undamaged in an explosion like that.

The general consensus for quite a while is next year is when russia's economy starts to have trouble. That is when the wealth fund runs out of liquid assets, along with other issues coming to a head.

[alach]

No way the sub was undamaged in an explosion like that.

The general consensus for quite a while is next year is when russia's economy starts to have trouble. That is when the wealth fund runs out of liquid assets, along with other issues coming to a head.

Yeah, it is going to be a rough winter for the Ukrainians, but it looks like the majority of them want to try and hold on. They conducted a poll last week and over 60% said to keep fighting as long as possible. Zelensky still holds over 60% approval as well.
Trump really should stop giving advice on how to behave to people who are better liked than himself.