Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elder Millennial]

At this point, I'd put money on "Putin's death." Either from normal natural causes, or some sort of horrible freak accident like slipping in the shower and falling out of a window while shooting himself in the back of the head.

It's debatable whether Russia can stop fighting, with or without Putin.

Putin's death or removal wouldn't necessarily mean an end to the fighting as he might get replaced by someone with the same or worse incentives.

[Lahis]

How long is it gonna take for the economical turmoil and damages from this war for Russia to surrender you think? Or Putin's death. Russia is doing permanent long-term damage to its economy for decades, and Ukraine is just getting better at fucking them over. Like, I'm amazed a bullet to his brain hasn't happened yet.

No amount damage will ever be enough to make Russia surrender. They will keep pushing untill Ukraine is forced to capitulate.

Then they regroup and attack the next country, or re-engage in Ukraine.

[DarkTZeratul]

It's debatable whether Russia can stop fighting, with or without Putin.

Putin's death or removal wouldn't necessarily mean an end to the fighting as he might get replaced by someone with the same or worse incentives.

Perhaps. My suspicion, though, is that most of the people who would replace him are smart enough to how much of a boondoggle it is while also not having the same imperialist drive to restore the USSR that Putin does. I think they're more likely to be out for themselves, and their wealth is in a much more precarious position if they keep the fighting going versus bullshitting some sort of excuse to pull out of Ukraine while still claiming "mission accomplished."

[Corvus]

Given that pootie has no designated successor, I'd imagine there would be a lot of infighting over who takes over. Might be hard to run a war like that.

[Elder Millennial]

Perhaps. My suspicion, though, is that most of the people who would replace him are smart enough to how much of a boondoggle it is while also not having the same imperialist drive to restore the USSR that Putin does. I think they're more likely to be out for themselves, and their wealth is in a much more precarious position if they keep the fighting going versus bullshitting some sort of excuse to pull out of Ukraine while still claiming "mission accomplished."

The word "smart" does a lot of heavy lifting here.

Prior to 2022 even Putin's worst critics would consider him both smart and someone with a very very keen political instinct. Yet ...here we are.

The fact is that in the Russian system that allowed Putin to climb to the top and more importantly stay there, there are 2 types of people. Those with real power, but not the skills, knowledge or capacity to challenge Putin, the likes of Gerasimov, Patrushev, Belousov, Sechin and then you have the types that are competent and are needed to run important things, but are kept away from real political power and influence, Nabiullina, Lavrov etc.

The only "overlap" between power and competence is really Igor Sechin but that guy is basically fat Putin.

Also the much vaunted Oligarch faction has been defenestrated to the point they are practically toothless now.

- - - Updated - - -

Given that pootie has no designated successor, I'd imagine there would be a lot of infighting over who takes over. Might be hard to run a war like that.

The Russian "war strategy" is basically channel all resources to the front and push forward. Unless the political infighting spirals into a civil war not much in the way of "leadership" is required here.

What's worse "Who can push forward harder" might become a major point of contention in the succession struggles, so if anything that might make the Russian efforts worse at the front lines and air strikes wise, to the detriment of the "home front".

Again, for every positive outcome possible there's a bad one equally possible.

That's why even to this day, the official position even in Europe, where politicians want the Russians to lose (and during the Biden administration) they don't want Russia to lose "too hard" or really Putin replaced. The uncertainty around the possible outcomes is scary.

That's why the fall of the USSR was also a scary moment. Had that spiraled into full blown civil war between the Republics and Russia...suddenly you might have ended up with a scenario where Astana nukes Moscow and Moscow nukes Vilnius for some dumb fucking reason.

[Poopymonster]

Given that pootie has no designated successor, I'd imagine there would be a lot of infighting over who takes over. Might be hard to run a war like that.

Infighting? That would draw troops out of Ukraine for petty squabbling back home?

Let them fight.

[D Luniz]

How long is it gonna take for the economical turmoil and damages from this war for Russia to surrender you think? Or Putin's death. Russia is doing permanent long-term damage to its economy for decades, and Ukraine is just getting better at fucking them over. Like, I'm amazed a bullet to his brain hasn't happened yet.

The only way anything other than Putin's death stops it would require Russia to be effectively sealed off from the world.
No travel, no internet traffic, etc etc.
Won't happen though.

[Vampiregenesis]

None cares about Trump at this point, everyone is talking about war. Both Russia and Europe want to go all out with this. As if we didn't have enough problems until now, a massive war is an excellent follow up. I guess it's the unavoidable fate. Trump should just give up.

I wonder, if the European countries have problems with their militaries then why they rank on the top on globalfirepower? UK/France/Italy are on top 10. Add to this Germany who is 15th but probably much higher with the new investments. Ukraine is 20th and holds, what if these 4 just send troops to Ukraine through the military Schengen?

It doesn't make sense to fear nukes and at the same time speak for war, they already have a big army to win a conventional war against Russia easily. Nukes will be an available option for Russia later too, not sure how do you prepare for this.


Infracted.

[Edge-]

None cares about Trump at this point, everyone is talking about war. Both Russia and Europe want to go all out with this. As if we didn't have enough problems until now, a massive war is an excellent follow up. I guess it's the unavoidable fate. Trump should just give up.

da, comrade. just give russia everything, comrade.

It doesn't make sense to fear nukes and at the same time speak for war, they already have a big army to win a conventional war against Russia easily. Nukes will be an available option for Russia later too, not sure how do you prepare for this.

...Yuppie?

[LeGin v4]

Nukes will be an available option for Russia later too, not sure how do you prepare for this.

You don't.

And you won't be safe either, my old mucker.

[Elder Millennial]

None cares about Trump at this point, everyone is talking about war. Both Russia and Europe want to go all out with this.

Europe doesn't want anything of the sort.

Europe simply doesn't want an expansionist, genocidal, fascist regime dismantle its peace, security, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

All Russia has to do is to FUCK OFF BACK TO RUSSIA AND STAY THERE.

After 4 mother fucking God forsaken dumbfucking years, you still haven't wrapped your brain around the fact that there is only 1 side attacking here. Russia.

Russia can stop at any time. It can keep its shitty dictator, it can keep all its territories, and realistically speaking can probably even keep the occupied territories or at least most of them. It just needs to stop attacking and fuck off. That's it.

Of course you know this, you are just a disingenuous lying little scumbag, doing your weekly "Russia strong" " West bad" routine.


Infracted.

[Deus Mortis]

Honestly surprised by some of this. Was not expecting the US to have the most people wanting an increase to financial and military increase compared to the other countries. The site has nice graphs breaking everything down that I can't copy paste here.

https://www.politico.eu/article/fren...co-poll-shows/
French and German adults lean toward dialing back Ukraine support, new POLITICO poll shows

BRUSSELS — When it comes to support for Ukraine, a split has emerged between the European Union and its English-speaking allies.

In France and Germany, the EU’s two biggest democracies, new polling shows that more respondents want their governments to scale back financial aid to Kyiv than to increase it or keep it the same. In the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, meanwhile, respondents tilt the other way and favor maintaining material support, according to The POLITICO Poll, which surveyed more than 10,000 people across the five countries earlier this month.

Germans were the most reluctant to ramp up financial assistance, with nearly half of respondents (45 percent) in favor of cutting financial aid to Kyiv while only 20 percent wanted to increase it. In France 37 percent wanted to give less and 24 percent preferred giving more.

In contrast to the growing opposition to Ukrainian aid from Europe, support remains strikingly firm in North America. In the U.S., President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism toward Kyiv’s chances of defeating Moscow and has sent interlocutors to bargain with the Russians for peace. And yet the U.S. had the largest share of respondents (37 percent) in favor of increasing financial support, with Canada just behind at 35 percent.

Support for Ukraine was driven primarily by those who backed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the 2024 election in the U.S. Some 29 percent of Harris voters said one of the top three reasons the U.S. should support Ukraine was to protect democracy, compared with 17 percent of supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“The partisan split in the U.S. is now quite extreme,” Wride said.

In Germany and France, opposition to assistance was especially pronounced among supporters of far-right parties — such as the Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally — while centrists were less skeptical.

“How Ukraine financing plays out in Germany in particular, as a number of European governments face populist challenges, should be a particular warning sign to other leaders,” Wride said.

Support for military assistance tracked a similar divide. Nearly 40 percent of respondents in the U.S., U.K. and Canada backed higher levels of military aid, with about 20 percent opposed.

In Germany 26 percent supported increased military aid to Ukraine while 39 percent opposed it. In France opinions were evenly split, with 31 percent favoring an increase and 30 percent favoring cuts.

Germany was also the only country where a majority of respondents said their government should accept fewer Ukrainians displaced by the war.

[diller]

None cares about Trump at this point, everyone is talking about war. Both Russia and Europe want to go all out with this.

You are completely delusional, you really should go see a doctor about it.

Europe just wants the war to end and get back to normalcy.

- - - Updated - - -

Honestly surprised by some of this. Was not expecting the US to have the most people wanting an increase to financial and military increase compared to the other countries. The site has nice graphs breaking everything down that I can't copy paste here.

Unfortunately in Denmark support for helping Ukraine financially is dropping and we are already spending less that we did before (to be fair I think we were the country with the biggest support per capita before)

[Vampiregenesis]

Europe doesn't want anything of the sort.

Europe simply doesn't want an expansionist, genocidal, fascist regime dismantle its peace, security, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

All Russia has to do is to FUCK OFF BACK TO RUSSIA AND STAY THERE.

After 4 mother fucking God forsaken dumbfucking years, you still haven't wrapped your brain around the fact that there is only 1 side attacking here. Russia.

Russia can stop at any time. It can keep its shitty dictator, it can keep all its territories, and realistically speaking can probably even keep the occupied territories or at least most of them. It just needs to stop attacking and fuck off. That's it.

Of course you know this, you are just a disingenuous lying little scumbag, doing your weekly "Russia strong" " West bad" routine.

Allow me to rephrase, both Europe and Russia are not willing to back down and accept the terms of each other due to lack of trust. I'm not talking about who is righteous here.

Also every second day, I see a new official saying how the EU citizens should be ready to sacrifice themselves against Russia and how not using the Russian assets to support Ukraine will severely damage Europe. They try to prepare the people for a major confrontation. It probably sounds trollish but something big is going to happen. There is also the possibility that the war freeze due to inability for both to push further and Russia keeps the territories without them being recognized, I guess this is the least scary scenario. I wonder, how will the Russians attempt to seize Kramatorsk, the most fortified area when it took them so long in the other areas, this could take years.

Europe could at least provide air force support to Ukraine which is a major problem for it. France has a robust air force. I don't think this will cause serious political damage. Let's face it, if it wasn't for nukes, Europe would already do that like it did in so many other fronts. If they are expecting a major confrontation with Russia then I guess they have a plan about the nuke part, I wonder what that plan is.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens next, this situation could break Europe, AFD is currently first in Germany. Those who rule now lack the charisma to keep Europe united and strong.

[Ghostile]

Allow me to rephrase, both Europe and Russia are not willing to back down and accept the terms of each other due to lack of trust. I'm not talking about who is righteous here.

Oh europe trusts Russia.
To try this again if we reward them for doing it once.
And Ruskies just have enough poor people to send to slaughter to continue trying to get rewarded for this.

[Elder Millennial]

Allow me to rephrase, both Europe and Russia are not willing to back down and accept the terms of each other due to lack of trust.

There isn't a single serious or relevant person in the whole of the Russian federation who even for one microsecond would seriously think that any European country, the EU or NATO for that matter is any degree of military threat. Or that the Europeans wouldn't stick to the letter of any diplomatic agreement.

Saying that the Russians "don't trust Europe" is just not a serious thing to say, and this is not a serious consideration in the Russian calculus, any more than "the safety of Russian speakers in Ukraine" is and had never been a serious factor.

It's such a non factor Russia left a whole third of its foreign currency reserves I'm European banks before starting the war, and it's such a non factor that to THIS VERY DAY almost every child of every Russian oligarch or major government official and insider LIVES IN EUROPE.


It's such a non factor that Russian sabotage operations and provocations are daily occurrences BECAUSE the Russians are absolutely certain they can 100% trust the Europeans to do nothing more than another strongly worded letter and more sanctions on random Russian oligarchs or whatnot.

[Corvus]

Not to forget that when things started to go pear shaped after the initial invasion, russia stripped it's borders with Europe clean of troops to send to Ukraine. Europe could have walked in unimpeded if it had wanted to.

[Neufab]

Allow me to rephrase, both Europe and Russia are not willing to back down and accept the terms of each other due to lack of trust. I'm not talking about who is righteous here.

What is it you think Europe should back down about?
Do you STILL not fcking understand who's the aggressor in this conflict?

I've asked you before about what it is that you find so great about totalitarian Russia and its murderous dictator that you spend hours here armchair figthing for the fascist cause and got no answer. Will you answer this time?

[Lahis]

Allow me to rephrase, both Europe and Russia are not willing to back down and accept the terms of each other due to lack of trust. I'm not talking about who is righteous here.

Also every second day, I see a new official saying how the EU citizens should be ready to sacrifice themselves against Russia and how not using the Russian assets to support Ukraine will severely damage Europe. They try to prepare the people for a major confrontation. It probably sounds trollish but something big is going to happen. There is also the possibility that the war freeze due to inability for both to push further and Russia keeps the territories without them being recognized, I guess this is the least scary scenario. I wonder, how will the Russians attempt to seize Kramatorsk, the most fortified area when it took them so long in the other areas, this could take years.

Europe could at least provide air force support to Ukraine which is a major problem for it. France has a robust air force. I don't think this will cause serious political damage. Let's face it, if it wasn't for nukes, Europe would already do that like it did in so many other fronts. If they are expecting a major confrontation with Russia then I guess they have a plan about the nuke part, I wonder what that plan is.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens next, this situation could break Europe, AFD is currently first in Germany. Those who rule now lack the charisma to keep Europe united and strong.

Gotta be prepared to fight back when Russia attacks. They are constantly escalatign tehri hybrid warfare towards Europe. Once they are done with Ukraine, they will head to Moldova or Baltics next.

[Vampiregenesis]

What is it you think Europe should back down about?
Do you STILL not fcking understand who's the aggressor in this conflict?

I've asked you before about what it is that you find so great about totalitarian Russia and its murderous dictator that you spend hours here armchair figthing for the fascist cause and got no answer. Will you answer this time?

I have answered countless times that I'm not Pro-Russia neither I support Putin, I don't think anyone sane would want to live under this Russia, however I want to see Europe becoming a better place since this is where I live. Putin/Trump combo offers competition, this is an opportunity for Europe to improve.

You should ask yourself why AFD is first in Germany, I guess they don't read mmo-c?

Germany is the best place to live in Europe, they never had a hard time until now, they thrived so far, yet a pro-Russian party is first. I mean if Germany is not willing to defend this Europe then who is?

France also has a very anti-war population. Italy the same.

Why none is willing to fight for Europe? this is wrong, you can't expect to have peace forever, if none is willing to fight then the Union won't survive.

I don't think anyone of the above see something good in Putin, it's just that the demands of the citizens are being ignored. I personally want to see something good coming out of it. This is an opportunity for Europe to capitalize at.