Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Flarelaine]

Putin's retirement plan is no longer just about how much money he has, it's about how securely the door's locked.

Don't forget the window. Russian windows are dangerous.

[snebb]

Wheeelp, Putin is doubling down on his stance from a few days ago. As expected, ongoing peace talks will be a waste of time.
BBC

However a Kremlin statement about the same telephone call says that Putin told Macron;
"a settlement is possible only if Russia's legitimate security interests are taken into account - including;
- recognition of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, and
- demilitarisation and denazification of the Ukrainian state and
- ensuring it has a neutral status
..."

[Doctor Amadeus]

Don't forget the window. Russian windows are dangerous.

Oh yeah those things must come with warning labels in Russia. Can’t imagine the fixed insurance budget is.

[Flarelaine]

Not sure what your point is. Did you want Germany to invade Russia based on a hunch? Or are you pretending hindsight isn't 20/20 now?

I'm just saying that while I really applaud Germany putting their big boy boots on, Ukraine might fall by the time diplomacy plays out.

As an afterthough, obviously that would not be on Germany alone.

[Rozz]

Stop derailing the thread.

1) No we're not going to play ignorant games to justify poorly phrased generalizations of civilians of a county. You can torch the government, military, media entities, and other established organizations but keep your aired resentment there.
2) We're not getting back into the Ukraine name debate. That was a semantic derail the thread moved on from on its own, so lets keep it that way.

[PC2]

Ukraine is trying to join the EU asap. IF they manage to do it that means serious support from the other EU states. We are not far from ww3, actually it is already happening.

Nuh-uh, the world can eventually find a way to make Russia back off. WW3 is not here nor imminent.

[Specialka]

Wheeelp, Putin is doubling down on his stance from a few days ago. As expected, ongoing peace talks will be a waste of time.
BBC

Yes, he is staying dead on set on all that BS, so the fight is far from over

[Draco-Onis]

Yes, America is terrible, it skirts the edges of right wing authoritarianism constantly, while playing an Imperial world police, it's a martial state with a military industrial complex. And Americans love it, they love Guns, pretending they're meeting out justice, and playing wargames and watching war movies. The redeeming feature is that they actually prefer the idea of surgical strikes, precision warfare, and special forces manoeuvres over full scale invasions and launching Grad missiles and MLRS cluster munitions at residential apartment blocks.

Afghanistan was a rather unique set of circumstances with almost global support. Iraq however was not, and it devastated the UK government at the time for its support, so much so our previous interventionalist doctrines were all but scrapped.

I'd love to see a million people marching in Moscow. I'd love for Putin to pay attention to it unlike how Blair ignored it. Neither of those things will happen.

And so the whataboutism is pointless.

you know it could still happen there's a reason Putin is cracking down on protestors so brutally, it just won't be the overnight revolution people think. Putin has put himself in a very bad situation he is more paranoid than usual because he cannot count on anyone since a lot of money is at risk. My opinion is he miscalculated so this could be the start of the end hopefully.

- - - Updated - - -

Iraq was not supported by Germany. Afghanistan was an extension of NATO's Art. 5 and everyone supported it. You really need to be more careful about what you say.

You are correct I was speaking of a more domestic perspective, I get your point.

[Shadowferal]

Nuh-uh, the world can eventually find a way to make Russia back off. WW3 is not here nor imminent.

How reassuring.../s

[Zemini7]

Not going so well for Russia it seems. I just feel sorry for all the dead kids who had no choice in the matter.

[TACOshake]

Not going so well for Russia it seems. I just feel sorry for all the dead kids who had no choice in the matter.

Senior U.S. defense official: Russia sent roughly 75 percent of troops arrayed on Ukraine's border into the country.

Confirms why there's no Second or Third Echelons, aka why their support convoys are vulnerable.

People posting that "They only Sent 30%" ...

[Cynep]

Putin has painted himself into a corner with this invasion.

Imagine a normal patriotic Russian who still trusts his leader and is being sent to help liberate Ukraine from "evil nazis". Putin told him "Ukrainians are our brothers, we only attack military and not civilians". Ukrainians are resisting and the operation is stuck. What will a normal Russian think if Putin says now "I changed my mind, kill all our brothers"? Russia can't win without changing the strategy to a murderous one, and they can't do that either to a brotherly nation.

I hope...

[Skulltaker]

Senior U.S. defense official: Russia sent roughly 75 percent of troops arrayed on Ukraine's border into the country.

Confirms why there's no Second or Third Echelons, aka why their support convoys are vulnerable.

People posting that "They only Sent 30%" ...

How many troops do they potentially have to still throw in? IIRC they had ~175.000 deployed near the border, but surely that's only a fraction of the Russian army?

Also, isn't there the chance of them becoming more ruthless if the campaign doesn't go well?

[s_bushido]

Senior U.S. defense official: Russia sent roughly 75 percent of troops arrayed on Ukraine's border into the country.

Confirms why there's no Second or Third Echelons, aka why their support convoys are vulnerable.

People posting that "They only Sent 30%" ...

75% arrayed at the border =/= 75% of all their armed forces.

[DarkAmbient]

Putin "willing to consider halting attacks on civilians". What a bro.

[Shadowferal]

Also, isn't there the chance of them becoming more ruthless if the campaign doesn't go well?

I don't think the rank and file believe in this invasion...morale just isn't there, nor is the anger or will.

[Skulltaker]

Putin has painted himself into a corner with this invasion.

Imagine a normal patriotic Russian who still trusts his leader and is being sent to help liberate Ukraine from "evil nazis". Putin told him "Ukrainians are our brothers, we only attack military and not civilians". Ukrainians are resisting and the operation is stuck. What will a normal Russian think if Putin says now "I changed my mind, kill all our brothers"? Russia can't win without changing the strategy to a murderous one, and they can't do that either to a brotherly nation.

I hope...

Ahm, no. I don't think it will play out like that. At least not for the broad majority. If anything it'll make russian soldiers more ruthless. When US forces fought to 'protect Vietnam' or 'bring democracy to Afghanistan', they faced similar reluctance from the population. Maybe not to the same degree, but still. Many people rose up in arms against the would-be liberators, leading to more dead troops, leading to them becoming more aggressive and indiscriminate towards the population. Granted, Russians and Ukrainians are closer to each other than the US and Vietnam/Afghanistan, but I wouldn't hold my breath for mass confusion within Russian military ranks.

Of course, I'm no expert on that matter, so anyone feel free to correct me. But usually soldiers faced with resistance where they didn't expect it don't start to question their leaders motives. At least as long as they are being shot at.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think the rank and file believe in this invasion...morale just isn't there, nor is the anger or will.

I'm no expert. But I think the times where the Rank and File believed in whatever attack are long gone, anyway. I think the last time that might have actually been the case was WW2.

[Combatbutler]

I'm just saying that while I really applaud Germany putting their big boy boots on, Ukraine might fall by the time diplomacy plays out.

Ukraine was screwed from the get go in case of war, simply because it pretty much stands alone, other european powers having a strong military would not deter Putin from invading a third party, at the end of day the other nations pay lip service to Ukraine, but aren't willing to actually force Russia to stop , due to the high stakes involved.

The chances of other nations directly interfering are quite slim, unless putin literally starts death camps.

[Belize]

Putin "willing to consider halting attacks on civilians". What a bro.

Wait, I thought he said civilians weren't being attacked

[Barzotti]

How many troops do they potentially have to still throw in? IIRC they had ~175.000 deployed near the border, but surely that's only a fraction of the Russian army?

Also, isn't there the chance of them becoming more ruthless if the campaign doesn't go well?

Regardless of how true or false the statement from the US official is:

- not everyone on the army is a soldier prepared to fight
- some troops have to stay on the Russian soil to protect the public order (such as Rosgvardiya) or are already deployed on another fronts
- some of them must be very far from the Ukrainian front, making it difficult to relocate them
- given how poorly the Russian logistics has been on this whole operation while said operation was planned, it must be very difficult for them to prepare the logistics, the refueling, the food... for the newcomers.