Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Twdft]

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

One way this shitshow ends is if Russian population demands it. Just like anti war movement in the USA helped to end the Vietnam war.

These players get told in no uncertain terms why they can't compete anymore, so let's hope a couple of them use their popularity to shape Russian public opinion anti war.

[Kathranis]

Again for someone who reads you seem rather ignorant of the marketing around Crimea. Bush's poll numbers soared for Iraq and Afghanistan I guess Americans also love murderous rulers. You see how easy it is to make black and white statements when the world is grey yet?

Not a great comparison. US went into Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11 united the nation in a temporary jingoistic stupor. The Bush administration waited a month before going into Afghanistan and spent a year and a half selling the war on Iraq to Congress and the public with bad intel. Both wars were initially popular, and helped Bush get reelected, but his numbers tanked shortly after that as the reality of the wars set in and an economic downturn began.

There are some strong parallels to be made, sure. Mostly the part where it turns out to be a costly military quagmire.

The difference is that the US was better able to justify its wars and had broad support domestically and internationally (for Afghanistan at least), including a sizeable international coalition. There was also a greater imbalance of force, with the coalition being armed with the latest military tech and the opposition mostly being armed with surplus gear from the 80s.

This invasion has been poorly justified, and while some of that propaganda might work in Russia and Belarus, it's not working on the world stage. The war is already unpopular domestically, and it hasn't even been a week. They have virtually no international support, no coalition to help share the load. To the contrary, the Western world is actively impeding them with increasingly severe sanctions, while supporting the Ukrainian resistance with a flood of high grade weapons.

So, yeah. Afghanistan and Iraq were initially popular wars that quickly became unpopular, and were ultimately considered massive mistakes. Russia's invasion is going way worse. Any victory they achieve is going to be a Pyrrhic one. The damage to their reputation has already been done.

[snebb]

The main strategic objective of the Russians right now seems to be little esle than "Kill Zelensky" because frankly an occupation or a puppet government looks like a non starter.

At this point, the martyrdom of Zelenskyy is the last thing Putin should be aiming for.

[JohnBrown1917]

Unfortunately, the time to think about Russian players/normal citizens has past long time ago. Situation is so fucked up and serious that pressure and bans on every possible front are needed. You wont hit hard if you try to spare Russians not participating in the conflict.

I'm just happy that this will lead to banning any other country that will pull this sort of shit.

[neik]

This looks to me a pretty good warcrime here:


Attacking civilians with mortars.

(note the guy is fine)

Fuck, it's intense, at least the driver has a slight chance of surviving while also avoiding actual shell shock or even death upon direct hit if it happens.

Small fraction of Kharkiv attacks as well this morning. Twitter post claims 11 lives and tons injured https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...8M-.mp4?tag=12

[ranzino]

switzerland is on board for sanctions now, freezing assets from those blacklisted by EU. russian oligarchs will seethe

[Gorsameth]

Talks for today have ended and more are planned, but the delegations are returning to their capitals for now. It's kind of the last ditch chance for peace and for a way out for Russia. The worry is that Russia will use darker tactics on civilian areas as some sort of negotiating threat. Cluster munitions were used on a civilian area of Kharkhiv today literally as the negotiations were taking place. I have a feeling that approach will have the opposite effect though of hardening resolve even further.

One big issue is that Russia can't really offer a security guarantee since it burned that bridge after lying about border troop buildup being exercises, saying that troops were being moved back to bases, continuing negotiations after the invasion had already been ordered, etc. So from Ukraine's perspective Russia can only offer a cease-fire. If there's a very remote chance for a deal it would probably be something like Ukraine formally gives up claims on Crimea and DNR/LNR to Russia, Ukraine cancels it's NATO application, Russia withdraws all forces, and then removal of sanctions. I would fully expect Russia to be back someday and for any peace to be paper thin. But at least it would back the world from the brink and give cooler heads at the Kremlin time to rethink this idea of military expansion.

Russian security guarantees became worthless back in 2014 when they violated the Bucharest Memorandum by annexing Crimea.

And don't read to much into FIFA going against Russia, they were basically forced to by the 3 other teams (Poland, Sweden, Czech Republic) in the qualifier pool coming together and stating they would all refuse to play Russia.

[snebb]

Apparent, unconfirmed, reports of a radar hit at Kyiv and TU-95 departing from Belarus.
Guess Kyiv is in for it's roughest night yet.

[Draco-Onis]

Not a great comparison. US went into Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11 united the nation in a temporary jingoistic stupor. The Bush administration waited a month before going into Afghanistan and spent a year and a half selling the war on Iraq to Congress and the public with bad intel. Both wars were initially popular, and helped Bush get reelected, but his numbers tanked shortly after that as the reality of the wars set in and an economic downturn began.

There are some strong parallels to be made, sure. Mostly the part where it turns out to be a costly military quagmire.

The difference is that the US was better able to justify its wars and had broad support domestically and internationally (for Afghanistan at least), including a sizeable international coalition. There was also a greater imbalance of force, with the coalition being armed with the latest military tech and the opposition mostly being armed with surplus gear from the 80s.

This invasion has been poorly justified, and while some of that propaganda might work in Russia and Belarus, it's not working on the world stage. The war is already unpopular domestically, and it hasn't even been a week. They have virtually no international support, no coalition to help share the load. To the contrary, the Western world is actively impeding them with increasingly severe sanctions, while supporting the Ukrainian resistance with a flood of high grade weapons.

So, yeah. Afghanistan and Iraq were initially popular wars that quickly became unpopular, and were ultimately considered massive mistakes. Russia's invasion is going way worse. Any victory they achieve is going to be a Pyrrhic one. The damage to their reputation has already been done.

This reply was in reference to Crimea and how it was sold in Russia to boost Putin's approval rating.

[Makabreska]

Yup, confirmed. UEFA and FIFA kicking Russia out.

[Barzotti]

Yup, confirmed. UEFA and FIFA kicking Russia out.

UEFA also ended their partnership contract with Gazprom.

[Breccia]

Don't forget the window. Russian windows are dangerous.

Oh, in my headcanon Putin's in a bunker. No windows.

"ensuring it has a neutral status"

I would love to see what "neutral" means in this context. Because I assume it means "does whatever we say". There is no way that such a requirement can be made that both the UN and Russia would agree on.

[Adam Jensen]

Fuck, it's intense, at least the driver has a slight chance of surviving while also avoiding actual shell shock or even death upon direct hit if it happens.

Small fraction of Kharkiv attacks as well this morning. Twitter post claims 11 lives and tons injured https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...8M-.mp4?tag=12

I would be shitting myself.

[Gaidax]

Ahm, no. I don't think it will play out like that. At least not for the broad majority. If anything it'll make russian soldiers more ruthless. When US forces fought to 'protect Vietnam' or 'bring democracy to Afghanistan', they faced similar reluctance from the population.

Again a major point you and many others are missing - for Russia and Russians - Ukraine is not Afghanistan or Vietnam. Afghanistan or Vietnam for US citizens were far off hell holes with absolutely 0 emotional connection to and many questions of "why the f we even there??".

Ukraine for Russians would be akin to Canada for US citizens. It's a whole other ballpark - you have strong family and friendly ties between Russians and Ukrainians en masse. That is why Russian media jumps out of their skin trying to obfuscate and turn it into some "operation to help our brothers", because anything else would not fly even for a second.

It's not Syria - where you can bomb the shit out of it and nobody would give a fuck at home.

[Tuor]

Yup, confirmed. UEFA and FIFA kicking Russia out.

Inocent civilians dying, who the hell cares with football?

[snebb]

That is why Russian media jumps out of their skin trying to obfuscate and turn it into some "operation to help our brothers", because anything else would not fly even for a second.

It's not Syria - where you can bomb the shit out of it and nobody would give a fuck at home.

Personally and uneducatedly in the politics of the regions, I feel this is why he is mobilizing Belarus.
Avoid the issues around Russia carpet bombing, and gives someone to point the finger at once the dust has settled. Lukashenko is trying to play a big boys game without realizing he's being set up as a fall guy.

Hit me down if I'm missing something.

[Mihalik]

At this point, the martyrdom of Zelenskyy is the last thing Putin should be aiming for.

Not much of what the Russians are doing here makes any degree of logical sense.

[Gaidax]

Personally and uneducatedly in the politics of the regions, I feel this is why he is mobilizing Belarus.
Avoid the issues around Russia carpet bombing, and gives someone to point the finger at once the dust has settled. Lukashenko is trying to play a big boys game without realizing he's being set up as a fall guy.

Hit me down if I'm missing something.

I don't think so, it's simply down to having some few extras to secure or hold whatever they need to backup.

Just more cannon fodder.

[Makabreska]

Inocent civilians dying, who the hell cares with football?

Well, that's a weird take. It is just one of the many sanctions against Russia due to them causing said civilians deaths.

[Fugus]

Inocent civilians dying, who the hell cares with football?

Those people who don’t care about anything until it directly impacts them and what they like.

Kinda like those in the US who rail against welfare and government spending and taxes except for the welfare programs they are on and the programs they personally benefit from.

Those people…