Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

Maersk warns Russia it might cut off shipping.

[Zaydin]

Not sure if it has been posted here yet, but Turkey is also moving to close the Black Sea to Russian warships.

[Barzotti]

There is nothing "cheerleading" about me telling that Russia still did not get serious the way it showed it can in Syria. If they decide so - they can do with Kiev the same shit they did with Aleppo.

You perfectly know that idea of razing Kiev to the ground is pants on head retarded. What's the point of making empty threats?

[Easo]

The hype around Ukraine's admittedly heroic stand is getting out of hand.

One of the reasons some people don't like me here is because I (and some others) call that out. It is infectious, not gonna lie, but I am worried about people buying into it too much.

Yes, war is awful.

Why feel empathy for the aggressors rather than the victims?

No, those are casualties of war, not an innocent 6 year old girl.

No shit war is awful.

I am talking about guro. So, why not show Donbas guro? I mean, they really love to use it as an excuse now, but it did not change the fact it happened there too.

Hey, guess what, 6 year old girls ARE casualties of war, because civilian deaths go under that word too.

It is a media playing at shock value. Btw - has relatively little impact in Russia after Chechnya. Partially in Ukraine as well, due to similar mentality and history.
West will be, ehhh, shocked more.

And 1917 was the absolute low point of it.

Sure, but presidents for life are not thaaaat different from monarchy.

You cheerleading the Russians every step of the way in their little Lebensraum project never gets old.

I mean if you can cheerlead for one fascist apartheid state engaged in a perpetual occupation and genocide you might as well cheer for another.

Note tho, you've spent the last 5 days constantly telling us how the Ukrainians are about to get steamrolled aaaaaaany minute now....

Aaaaannnnnny minute now.

While I have no doubt that your boy Putler would have no qualms about genocide if he thought he could do it, let's see what the Ukrainians have to say about that first shall we?

God, you are an abhorrent person.

He is ironic about the hype regarding Ukrainian defense and has a bit more realistic view on sanctions, even if I don't agree with him fully on those.
Maybe you need to reread what, exactly, he says.

You perfectly know that idea of razing Kiev to the ground is pants on head retarded. What's the point of making empty threats?

Works for peace deals.

[Breccia]

Not sure if it has been posted here yet

A repost is better than a missed story. And I hadn't seen it, at least, so thanks.

Also, keep your eyes on McDonalds. Nine percent of their global revenue comes from Russia and/or Ukraine (mostly Russia). Most of them aren't franchised, but all of them look like American symbols. They're going to take a loss, no matter what they do.

[Barzotti]

Works for peace deals.

????

"Sign peace with us or we're totally gonna do what we can't do, I swear"? That's the worst bluff in the history of bluffs if anyone is falling for that. Threatening people to do something you know perfectly well you won't do (otherwise Russia would have done it already) is laughable.

[pathora44]

That's way more than I expected.

Question: how much of that is locked down in oligarch vaults? Even if the answer is "none" that's like $100 per person. I'd guess 75% based purely on US stock market, and that would instead by $25 per person. That's...nothing.

83.27 dollars or euros per Russian citizen, if the current population count of 144.1 million is correct, whichever form of currency they have in liquid assets. That is flat fucking broke to run a country the size of Russia. If the number is correct they currently have in liquid assets right in between the GDP of Brunei and Armenia which have a population of 425.5 thousand and 2.95 million respectively.

[Zaydin]

A repost is better than a missed story. And I hadn't seen it, at least, so thanks.

Or at least Turkey is moving to block access to the Black Sea to Russia within the bounds of the Montreux Convention governing passage through the Bosporus strait.

[PC2]

One of the reasons some people don't like me here is because I (and some others) call that out. It is infectious, not gonna lie, but I am worried about people buying into it too much.

It's because a lot of people in 2022 think that adhering to a social narrative is more important than describing objective reality.

[Edge-]

I am talking about guro.

The images were not of extreme gore, at least not the first handful that I saw. I don't know why you're on a tear about this.

Sorry I care more about the deaths of innocent children than invading Russian soldiers?

[Easo]

????

"Sign peace with us or we're totally gonna do what we can't do, I swear"? That's the worst deal in the history of deals if anyone is falling for that. Threatening people to do something you know perfectly well you won't do (otherwise Russia would have done it already) is laughable.

I have a feeling you missed Grads in Kharkiv today, as peace talks were ongoing.
War is an extension of politics. Impending/ongoing destruction of enemy can tend to force the peace deal to favour your side.

The images were not of extreme gore, at least not the first handful that I saw. I don't know why you're on a tear about this.

Sorry I care more about the deaths of innocent children than invading Russian soldiers?

Right, so for shock value then. And you keep ignoring Donbas ones.

It's because a lot of people in 2022 think that adhering to a social narrative is more important than describing objective reality.

Maybe, dunno. I am more woried about the southern and Donbas fronts and their longevity, considering peace talks started just today, than people believing Ukraine is winning.

[Edge-]

Right, so for shock value then. And you keep ignoring Donbas ones.

I'll do whatever I want, thanks though.

[Barzotti]

I have a feeling you missed Grads in Kharkiv today, as peace talks were ongoing.
War is an extension of politics. Impending/ongoing destruction of enemy can tend to force the peace deal to favour your side.

Ongoing destruction of enemy can work both ways, considering the amount of military stuff and support Ukraine is receiving. And time is not really playing in Russia's favor.

[PACOX]

Actually, Russia just gave NATO justification to admit more so that if Russia wants to get froggy and try and take more, they will have more legal justification to stop him.

I don't deny that. Putin has made a stronger case for NATO. But you need to get the crazy guy to put the knife down first.

[Gaidax]

Maybe, dunno. I am more woried about the southern and Donbas fronts and their longevity, considering peace talks started just today, than people believing Ukraine is winning.

Oh there is nothing to worry about there anymore - these go to Russia, it's pretty much a closed fact already. Donbas you can bet 100% and of course they keep Crimea. The rest, maybe there will be some agreement there that will make them pull back.

The only open question is Kiev and whether Zelensky's government makes it to the end of the war. That's why I hope these talks bear some results, because it's only realistic hope for Ukraine to get out of this... well wanted to say "lightly", but it's more like "not completely fucked up".

- - - Updated - - -

Ongoing destruction of enemy can work both ways, considering the amount of military stuff and support Ukraine is receiving. And time is not really playing in Russia's favor.

While Putin's clock to achieve his goals is certainly ticking and he has maybe 2-3 weeks more before pressure at home grows to critical levels, I'd say Ukraine's clock is ticking way harder right now.

It's not a far fetched question to ask whether there will even be any government remaining in two weeks time in Ukraine, if Zelensky and his surroundings decide to be a hero to the end.

[JohnBrown1917]

Sure, but presidents for life are not thaaaat different from monarchy.

Exactly why Putin is more comparable to the tsars, even his politics are, and draining a whole country for the wealth of just a few.

[guro-tchai]

War is an extension of politics.

christ just try being classy
"War is a continuation of politics by other means"
or don't if it wasn't your goal lmao

anyway, does anyone think that Russia might get a million dead as a result of the war? if yes, how soon? if not a million, will it surpass the Iraq war body count?

[Gaidax]

anyway, does anyone think that Russia might get a million dead as a result of the war? if yes, how soon? if not a million, will it surpass the Iraq war body count?

No, because Putin will get hanged up by his balls at home for even 10% of that number.

I wish again to remind you - he's not bombing some bearded guys nobody cares about at home thousands of kilometers away from Russia. Ukrainians are probably closest people to common Russians with many blood relations and shared history. He won't get away with going full Nazi purge on them.

They can hide, obfuscate and bullshit about a few thousands victims, hell maybe even 10-20k "terrorists/nazis" or "murdered by Hohlonazi terrorists", but he won't be able to sell anything at scale.

[PhaelixWW]

While Putin's clock to achieve his goals is certainly ticking and he has maybe 2-3 weeks more before pressure at home grows to critical levels, I'd say Ukraine's clock is ticking way harder right now.

It's not a far fetched question to ask whether there will even be any government remaining in two weeks time in Ukraine, if Zelensky and his surroundings decide to be a hero to the end.

I think those clocks are linked, though. If Putin starts taking a more direct approach in Kyiv, it's going to put even more pressure on him. I'm not at all sure how he expects to use those tanks inside the city without causing the kind of mass destruction that will just completely make a mockery of his entire justification for being in Ukraine.

If the aid that's coming to the Ukraine makes it to street-level fighting in Kyiv, this could go even worse for Putin. Again, he could guarantee a "win" still, but only at the cost of nearly destroying the city and any chance he can spin himself as the "liberator".

Nobody's quite sure if he's willing to pay that cost, though.

[Vampiregenesis]

I think the Russians are pushing hard today. Their new convoy is extremely large.