Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elenos]

@Gaidax: I don't believe there will be any successful negotiation. Ukraine will demand the Donbass and Crimea back. Russia will say absolutely not, and they will also refuse to allow Ukraine the ability to cut off water to Crimea again.

So it will go nowhere.

I think the Russians are pushing hard today. Their new convoy is extremely large.

Kiev may become another Grozny. if not Kiev Kharkiv will.

[PhaelixWW]

christ just try being classy
"War is a continuation of politics by other means"

I mean, it's a famous quote.

[Gorsameth]

NATO will definitely help Finland out in an 'official' capacity. Putin just reignited certain Cold War stances, but that might have been his intent.

Finland is already part of the EU's mutual defence agreement so for practical reasons they are covered.

[Gaidax]

I think those clocks are linked, though. If Putin starts taking a more direct approach in Kyiv, it's going to put even more pressure on him. I'm not at all sure how he expects to use those tanks inside the city without causing the kind of mass destruction that will just completely make a mockery of his entire justification for being in Ukraine.

If the aid that's coming to the Ukraine makes it to street-level fighting in Kyiv, this could go even worse for Putin. Again, he could guarantee a "win" still, but only at the cost of nearly destroying the city and any chance he can spin himself as the "liberator".

Nobody's quite sure if he's willing to pay that cost, though.

True, but the stakes are very uneven.

As I mentioned many times - Kiev will be burning and its citizens going to be dying. Moscow will be just fine.

I don't think anyone wants to bet on whether he decides to do it or not. Least of all Ukrainian negotiators and decision makers.

[Yunru]

So lets say that Ukraine president sighs a contract to join Nato. Will Nato help or stay outside borders?

[Gaidax]

@Gaidax: I don't believe there will be any successful negotiation. Ukraine will demand the Donbass and Crimea back. Russia will say absolutely not, and they will also refuse to allow Ukraine the ability to cut off water to Crimea again.

I am actually hopeful there will be eventually, because it's the only real way to salvage situation for both Ukraine and Russia.

Yes, like all the haggling ever - you don't come at the table already surrendering your natural positions. These are negotiations, after all.

I just hope they will reach some sort ceasefire before anything truly bad will happen.

- - - Updated - - -

So lets say that Ukraine president sighs a contract to join Nato. Will Nato help or stay outside borders?

Nobody will be letting Ukraine into NATO anytime soon or in next decade.

That's a complete non-starter discussion.

I think both US, EU and NATO made it plenty clear they'd rather sit back and chew on that popcorn while cheering at Ukraine instead of making it truly their problem in a more heavy sense of that word.

[DarkTZeratul]

So lets say that Ukraine president sighs a contract to join Nato. Will Nato help or stay outside borders?

If Ukraine actually joined NATO, NATO would be obligated to help. That's kind of the entire point of NATO.

[Shadowferal]

So lets say that Ukraine president sighs a contract to join Nato. Will Nato help or stay outside borders?

At that point, Ukraine is NATO. So yes, allied countries would stay and assist.

[PhaelixWW]

So lets say that Ukraine president sighs a contract to join Nato. Will Nato help or stay outside borders?

Ukraine can't really join NATO while they're being invaded.

[Vakna]

I don't see any way out of this for Russia, even if they win their war and take Ukraine, they still get absolutely hammered with economic sanctions until their economy crumbles. The only victory they can pull off at this point is to pull out and save their country, otherwise their only trading partners will be China. They will become an isolated outcast. What happens when the Rouble is worth less than the paper it's printed on?

[PACOX]

@Gaidax: I don't believe there will be any successful negotiation. Ukraine will demand the Donbass and Crimea back. Russia will say absolutely not, and they will also refuse to allow Ukraine the ability to cut off water to Crimea again.

So it will go nowhere.



Kiev may become another Grozny. if not Kiev Kharkiv will.

How can anyone not give into this man with his sigma negotiating skills?

[Edge-]

Big Batman "pass the salt" vibes.

That or he doesn't want anyone to get within arms reach because he's that paranoid now.

[Gaidax]

I don't see any way out of this for Russia, even if they win their war and take Ukraine, they still get absolutely hammered with economic sanctions until their economy crumbles. The only victory they can pull off at this point is to pull out and save their country, otherwise their only trading partners will be China. They will become an isolated outcast. What happens when the Rouble is worth less than the paper it's printed on?

Their way out is to ride it out and eventually reach an agreement with the West. People here legit think Russia gonna collapse in two days or something because of these half-measure sanctions. It's not.

Putin is not eternal, eventually he goes - the new guy will play dumb and cute for a while and West will be all too happy to oblige, get some more reset buttons to press and photos of everyone smiling.

Then it all happens again, because that's how Russia works...

[JohnBrown1917]

Big Batman "pass the salt" vibes.

That or he doesn't want anyone to get within arms reach because he's that paranoid now.

He seems to be very scared of getting covid.

[Edge-]

https://www.militarytimes.com/off-du...es-in-ukraine/

Awww man, Joe Rogan lied to us! But it was "just a joke" apparently.

I guess Steven Seagal isn't fighting with Russian special forces.

[guro-tchai]

No, because Putin will get hanged up by his balls at home for even 10% of that number.

I wish again to remind you - he's not bombing some bearded guys nobody cares about at home thousands of kilometers away from Russia. Ukrainians are probably closest people to common Russians with many blood relations and shared history. He won't get away with going full Nazi purge on them.

They can hide, obfuscate and bullshit about a few thousands victims, hell maybe even 10-20k "terrorists/nazis" or "murdered by Hohlonazi terrorists", but he won't be able to sell anything at scale.

with all due respect,
that's hope.
hope that his structure is not obedient enough; that if he goes full Sylvanas he's getting strangled (google translate to the rescue); hope that the People, who are currently scared shitless of not just getting tiananmen'd but just of getting fined and getting two weeks in jail, will rise up and overthrow him.
and hope is a letter away from cope.

I mean, it's a famous quote.

that's the thing - i still can't get over Lavrov saying "if a man promises, he's gotta do it". why couldn't he use the timeless pacta sunt servanda? deplorable.

[Vampiregenesis]

I don't see any way out of this for Russia, even if they win their war and take Ukraine, they still get absolutely hammered with economic sanctions until their economy crumbles. The only victory they can pull off at this point is to pull out and save their country, otherwise their only trading partners will be China. They will become an isolated outcast. What happens when the Rouble is worth less than the paper it's printed on?

They can switch to bitcoin.

[Graden]

https://www.militarytimes.com/off-du...es-in-ukraine/

Awww man, Joe Rogan lied to us! But it was "just a joke" apparently.

I guess Steven Seagal isn't fighting with Russian special forces.

Man that would be so hilarious I almost wish it was true.

[Arrashi]

Man that would be so hilarious I almost wish it was true.

Imagine waking up, turning on news and seeing his incinerated corpse in TV.

[Breccia]

But it was "just a joke" apparently.

Nope. He removed the post. You don't do that with funny jokes. You do that to cover your embarrassment or when Twitter flags you as misinformation.

Unsurprisingly, Rogan, who has since removed the post, was duped