Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elenos]

When they’re sending troops in with rations 7 years out of date, I’d call into question whether they ever had enough at all.

I'm going to call into question the logic of using a singular example as evidence of Russia's logistical issues as a country.

Clearly they have issues on a local level however, major ones. Don't make the assumption Russia does not have food for it's troops, fuel for it's tanks or ammo for their weapons. They have vast stockpiles.

They did not send them to the front. Why? Likely they thought it would be a cakewalk.

Can he afford weeks? Clock is ticking and the economic backlash has been devastating in the span of what, three/four days?

Putin likely knew what would happen and Russia prepared for years to take that hit. It isn't as if the sanctions put in place are going to get removed anytime soon.

[Shadowferal]

[Barzotti]

Putin likely knew what would happen and Russia prepared for years to take that hit. It isn't as if the sanctions put in place are going to get removed anytime soon.

I don't think anyone expected that level of sanctions because the sanctions in 2014 were ridiculously low (and I thought mysef that the western countries were bluffing when they were threatening Russia of severe sanctions in case of an invasion). Russia was prepared to take a hit and soften the blow, but it's an unexpected fucking hard hit when the Russian stock exchange loses 189 billions of dollars in one day and the Russian central bank reserves are frozen. I'm not sure Putin was fully prepared to get kicked out of Swift so quickly. Ruble has seen an historical crash in two days. We're not taking about long term consequences, we're talking about sudden and impactful hits.

I have not seen a country hit that hard and that fast economically and politically in the recent history.

[Shadowferal]

Putin likely knew what would happen and Russia prepared for years to take that hit. It isn't as if the sanctions put in place are going to get removed anytime soon.

I'd say you're wrong. Putin can take the hit...but Russia can't.

[snebb]

The second Russian missile reportedly missed the TV tower and hit the area of the Holocaust memorial.

Their denazification plan is going well then?

[Voidwielder]

Do not shy away from the horrors of this war.
https://twitter.com/mysko08/status/1498692965623083011

[Breccia]

We're seeing reports of vacuum bombs\

Oh shit, that's right, I had that on the list and forgot to post it. Nice catch.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch both said that Russian forces appeared to have used widely banned cluster munitions, with Amnesty accusing them of attacking a preschool in northeastern Ukraine while civilians took shelter inside.

Yep...Putin needed cluster bombs to defeat a kindergarden. What, can Russian tanks no longer handle snapped rubber bands?

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, told reporters after meeting with members of the U.S. Congress that Russia had used a thermobaric weapon, known as a vacuum bomb, in its invasion of her country.

"They used the vacuum bomb today," Markarova said after a meeting with lawmakers. "...The devastation that Russia is trying to inflict on Ukraine is large."

So, thermobarics don't fuck around. You don't use those unless (a) you want to kill many many people, such as a city filled with civilians, or (b) you're a dickless clueless TV show host who was raised by Hollywood cowboys and think people respect you for dropping larger bombs on civilians than smaller ones. And Putin was never once on Celebrity Oligarch.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she had seen reports but did not have confirmation that Russia had used such weapons. "If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime," she told a press briefing, noting that there are international organizations that would assess that and President Joe Biden's administration "would look to be a part of that conversation."

Amnesty International said international humanitarian law prohibits the use of inherently indiscriminate weapons such as cluster munitions. Launching indiscriminate attacks that kill or injure civilians constitutes a war crime.

As has been mentioned before, Russia's Most Mighty Army Da has been stopped by Ukrainians using rebar. They've gone from "they'll cower before our might" to "fuck everything, let's commit war crimes". The use of thermobarics would not surprise anyone at this point.

Putin is probably not worried about being charged with a war crime. He'd die before anyone could arrest him. Oh, not by his choice. If it gets to the point that ICC or the like knocks on the door, it's because things went so badly, that Putin will already be dead by the hand of a formerly trusted ally.

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Putin likely knew what would happen and Russia prepared for years to take that hit.

I mean, both the Russian populace who can't get to a working ATM and the Russian oligarchs pleading for peace because they're shedding billions in days seem like evidence no, he hasn't.

[zealo]

When they’re sending troops in with rations 7 years out of date, I’d call into question whether they ever had enough at all.

7 years past the use by date for MREs isn't anything that won't still be in perfectly edible condition.

Russia sending that to their troops is something you ought to be a bit careful about reading too much into.

[Endus]

From the moves we've seen, I'm hoping option 2 is what we see. Ukraine proved they've got balls, but this is a completely optional war and shouldn't be happening. If it continues in a conventional fashion, they'll eventually be crushed. Putin is proving he's willing to go all the way after the embarrassing losses so far, and everyone believes he'll do it.

It's a "completely optional war" in the same sense as the Reich invading Poland. If the world stands by and lets Russia gain basically any ground, here, it's just going to encourage Putin into further aggression; this invasion is that same escalation from his successful annexation of Crimea. So really, less like the invasion of Poland, more like the invasion of the Netherlands.

It isn't a fight Putin has any chance of winning, if NATO nations decide to step in and back him the fuck off, on Ukraine's behalf. Though I do think such an action needs to be entirely at the request of Ukraine's government, since the last damned thing we need is competing invasions.

[KrayZ33]

Say it with me now.

Iraqi soldiers fought WITH US soldiers against the terrorists there who were killing innocents.

We even trained the Iraqi police and Iraqi soldiers a lot of times y'all are actually clueless

Wait what?
You think Saddamn was a terrorist?

During what time did the Iraq-War happen in your opinion?
It's not May 2003-2011 btw.
The Iraq-War was the 2 months before that, when the US (and others) *attacked* Iraq without a UN-mandate. That's an offensive war.

Just pointing that out.

I don't want to drift away from the Ukraine topic though.
Just saying that in both cases, some nutcases high up told their military to do shitty things and the grunts did what they were told.

[Mihalik]

"If I can't have an empire, I'll do a genocide."
Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile Sergei Lavrov moaning at the UN about the EU being Russophobic. Lol.

[Breccia]

If the world stands by and lets Russia gain basically any ground

We're not. We're just not using conventional weapons this time.

[Makabreska]

Putin likely knew what would happen and Russia prepared for years to take that hit. It isn't as if the sanctions put in place are going to get removed anytime soon.

Did he really know? Did he expect such a strong and unified response on multiple fronts? Because as I see it, he was expecting more of a Crimea 2.0 - quick smash and grab while west condemns, but does little else.

[TACOshake]

7 years past the use by date for MREs isn't anything that won't still be in perfectly edible condition.

Russia sending that to their troops is something you ought to be a bit careful about reading too much into.

A lot of the context about "Russia modernizing their forces" is about 10 years out of date.

It's also correct that Minister of Defence Serdyukov greatly increased army's efficiency in 2007-2012. But what happened to him? Minister Serdyukov indeed reformed the army. He increased its efficiency, fought with corrupt and crony armament producers improving the army supplies. As a result he became extremely unpopular, made tons of powerful enemies and was ousted in 2012 losing his power and status.
His successor Shoygu knew better than that. Now who's Shoygu? Shoygu is the *only* single Russian minister who uninterruptedly worked in government since 1991, since the very beginning of Russian Federation. He worked for all presidents, all prime ministers avoided all purges.
Serdyukov fought with interest groups and was destroyed. Shoygu was smarter than that. He launched a PR campaign presenting himself as the "saviour" from the Serdyukov's legacy. Whatever his predecessor did, was dismantled. Media cheered, people cheered, interest groups cheered.

Shoygy not only purged Serdyukov's appointees, pondered to old military establishment, stopped arguing with army suppliers about the equipment cost and quality. He also pondered to numerous feel-good-lies regarding the Russian big strategy.

So the guy that helped loot the Soviet forces back in the 90's was brought back.

Those billion dollar dachas don't build themselves.

[Voidwielder]

If the world stands by and lets Russia gain basically any ground, here

NATO talking heads quite literally said they will not intervene. This is not Serbia which is half the world away from it's ally which at the time was weak and feeble.

Yes, the world will watch the destruction of Ukrainian state with folded arms. And all of us will live to see it.

[Makabreska]

"If I can't have an empire, I'll do a genocide."
Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile Sergei Lavrov moaning at the UN about the EU being Russophobic. Lol.

I did love that moment when all the diplomats simply left the room when he started the speech.

[Draco-Onis]

Did he really know? Did he expect such a strong and unified response on multiple fronts? Because as I see it, he was expecting more of a Crimea 2.0 - quick smash and grab while west condemns, but does little else.

You can tell by how he is reacting nothing is going according to plan, Putin most likely thought Zelensky would run and the country would fall into his hands easily. He expected Russian troops being cheered on the street as liberators to feed his domestic audience. You can tell that everything has gone wrong and he is stuck in a corner lashing out trying to remind the world he is a big man with nukes.

[Breccia]

Yes, the world will watch the destruction of Ukrainian state with folded arms. And all of us will live to see it.

Unless they surrender, yes. If the world really cared enough about Ukraine to step in, we would have done it for Crimea years ago.

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He expected Russian troops being cheered on the street as liberators to feed his domestic audience.

I can't believe any leader would expect their invading force to be greeted as liberators.

(re-watches last 22 years of American Middle East history)

Shit.

[Barzotti]

Yes, the world will watch the destruction of Ukrainian state with folded arms. And all of us will live to see it.

You'll salty that Kiev didn't fall yet?

[korijenkins]

Can he afford to spend weeks? Clock is ticking and the economical and political backlash has been devastating in the span of a few days.

No. The war is costing them a certain amount of money per day that they do not have to drag it out for weeks. Extremely unlikely any allies supply them with resources free of charge out of fear of sanctions. A major reason India and China are fence sitting atm is that. China wants to do business everywhere and does not want the west to condemn them.