Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Vakna]

It would be a senseless waste of life to do so.

I'd value freedom of choice over life any day, but maybe that's just me.

[Mihalik]

Eastern border of Ukraine faces the soft underbelly of Russia. Whether paranoid or not, when Russias considering Ukraine as a part of NATO/EU that is what they see - the long arm of US reaching for their neck. Leadership here does not matter, people give far too much importance to individuals. That is how they have always thought about borders and borderlands - a spring jump for the potential invader.

FUCKING BULLSHIT. COMPLETE AND UTTER HORSESHIT.

This is not a "secure our borders" thing...this is empire building. Nothing else. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-...on-of-ukraine/

[Magnagarde]

I'd value freedom of choice over life any day, but maybe that's just me.

That's what everyone would chose should their freedom be endangered and challenged. I'm of the same belief. The thing is that not everyone has been endangered and there's no need to escalate it to the levels of the next world war. The current answer to the aggression is more than strong; it's exceptionally restrained, yet blunt and damaging.

[Vakna]

You take him out first. If that fails then you can launch nukes.

That's the attitude that lets tyrants do these things to the world. "You first". If you're just going to bow down and kiss Putins shoes and grovel for life then just let him take the entire planet and get it over with.

[Voidwielder]

FUCKING BULLSHIT. COMPLETE AND UTTER HORSESHIT.

This is not a "secure our borders" thing...this is empire building. Nothing else. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-...on-of-ukraine/

I do not care for their propaganda puff pieces. They reveal nothing.

And guess why empires have always expanded? To protect the imperial centre. Sure there are other considerations but Catherine the Great had a good line about Russian borders - the only way to protect them is to expand them.

[Easo]

Russia is in full propaganda/censor mode. Even Lost Armor, which I love for the information they provide and hate for being bunch of closeted fascists has deciced to not update their database of lost military equipment until the war is over, just post the proofs in the chat feeds.
This is still being called "special operation", news are still talking almost only about front in Donbas (forget about things like Grads in Kharkiv) and Russian MoDO is in full control mode regarding "fake news". Of course - massive campaign is ongoing about West is evil due to sanctions.

Gloves are off, as noted by events of this day. Ukraine in general still has internet, phone network, TV and of course electricity, a clear sign Russia was hoping for a different initial outcome. This allowed morale boosting via all those videos. Obvious guess is that the good times are closer to end, or at least will be more limited. No communications - more panic and loss of morale.

Mariupol, as predicted, is fucked. Still signs that Russia lacks enough concentrated strength in the south and elsewhere, but Ukraine is spread even more thin, so... Herson was lost (or mostly lost, no chance there regardless) and Russians are at Mykolaiv - in general advance has now happened in south west, too.
As for north - it is starting to look more and more shaby in places, Chernihiv is blocked, together with the previously encircled towns.

Finally - it looks like there is actual movement regarding Kiev - Russian troops have more territory on the west of the city now.

Increased use of air power is more and more evident.

As for the 2x missiles in the building which was in Kharkiv's centre - it was a dual purpose target (civilian and military), at the very least. They did not fire at it just to kill some civilians. Let's see how many people I can trigger with that statement.

Anywayyy - 2nd round of peace talks are supposedly planned for tomorrow.

P.S.
I really, really hope, even if that is naive, that people understand why Ukraine can't "just bomb that convoy" after seeing those few drone strike videos.

[Endus]

I do not care for their propaganda puff pieces. They reveal nothing.

And yet, you're unapologetically parroting Russian propaganda puff pieces, like the horseshit about being worried about NATO on their doorstep.

And guess why empires have always expanded? To protect the imperial centre. Sure there are other considerations but Catherine the Great had a good line about Russian borders - the only way to protect them is to expand them.

Mask off, I guess.

[Shrouded]

It's more about the fact that Ukraine is not in NATO/EU.

I mean there's that too, of course. But it all ties together - if Ukraine had been in NATO/EU, would Russia have attacked and risked nuclear war? You're absolutely right though, there's not a single answer that neatly ties up everything.

MAD means nothing if he is just going to use that threat to do whatever he wants whenever he wants, in that case it's clear that it will happen at some point anyway, better to do it from a point of strength rather than later after he has whittled you down.

Sure, but it's an evolving situation. I sincerely think that much of the world was caught unaware - not about the attack, but the entire reasoning behind it and the savagery and brutality of the strikes against Ukraine. I think it's deplorable that Ukraine stands mostly alone, but I can understand the caution behind it. Unfortunately, that's probably exactly what Putin had counted on. :/

[Mihalik]

I do not care for their propaganda puff pieces. They reveal nothing.

And guess why empires have always expanded? To protect the imperial centre. Sure there are other considerations but Catherine the Great had a good line about Russian borders - the only way to protect them is to expand them.

Jesus fucking Christ dude. It's literally the Russians accidentally saying ahead of time, "We just did it cuz Empire, we never felt threatened anyway." It's a literal fucking admission.

Why the fuck are you literally pushing the official Russian propaganda position? Because that's what you are pushing.

[Voidwielder]

And yet, you're unapologetically parroting Russian propaganda puff pieces, like the horseshit about being worried about NATO on their doorstep.

Mask off, I guess.

No. As someone who knows Russian and Ukrainian and works with both daily I acutely understand their thinking. I did not apologize for it. I explained why and how they think.

[Elegiac]

And guess why empires have always expanded? To protect the imperial centre. Sure there are other considerations but Catherine the Great had a good line about Russian borders - the only way to protect them is to expand them.

Mmm, no.

Direct territorial expansion being conflated with national security is almost a uniquely Russian idiosyncrasy and one that has been responsible for its near perpetual state of being an international pariah.

[DarkAmbient]

It's mind blowing honestly, why would we not fight him now when we are strongest, instead of later. It's going to happen at some point, so why not now.

It's not going to happen. The most likely way this ends is with Ukraine's capitulation. Maybe the West keeps funnelling hardware to Ukraine to maintain a proxy war that bogs Russia down and erodes Putin's authority until his government collapses, but that would see Ukraine become a wasteland.

[Voidwielder]

Watch for Mariupol-Kharkiv line. If they manage to take both cities, they'll do a line rush from each cutting off and entrapping thousands of highly trained and skilled fighters.

[swdan]

Writing you from Kyiv city. air raid sirens are on most of the day.
got any questions? 3.2.1. go

[Mihalik]

No. As someone who knows Russian and Ukrainian and works with both daily I acutely understand their thinking. I did not apologize for it. I explained why and how they think.

And you've been wrong essentially every single time you've put your fingers to the fucking keyboard.

[wunksta]

I mean there's that too, of course. But it all ties together - if Ukraine had been in NATO/EU, would Russia have attacked and risked nuclear war? You're absolutely right though, there's not a single answer that neatly ties up everything.

I think Estonia provides a comparable situation. It has a large Russian ethnic population similar to the Donbass region. Russia hasn't attacked Estonia, but has attacked non-NATO countries with Russian populations like Ukraine and Georgia. If Ukraine joined NATO, Russia would never have the chance to re-integrate them back into the USSR.

[Voidwielder]

And you've been wrong essentially every single time you've put your fingers to the fucking keyboard.

Only misjudged Kyiv lasting as long as it has. That's about it.

[Endus]

No. As someone who knows Russian and Ukrainian and works with both daily I acutely understand their thinking. I did not apologize for it. I explained why and how they think.

You explained the Russian propaganda, as if it weren't a lie.

And it is a lie.

[Rasulis]

When I read about the consumer electronics sanction on Russia, my first thought was “What good would that do? They get most of their consumer electronics from China.” I actually said something to that effect in one of my post.

However, although the Chinese government is against sanction, China’s electronic companies are still dependent on US technology.

Despite the high-end chip manufacturing sanction, SMIC still used manufacturing equipment supplied by US firms for their current chips. Such as Applied Materials, Inc. A full-blown sanction from the US will make it more difficult or impossible to obtain repair parts or make new equipment.

Xiaomi, China’s largest smart phone manufacturer after Huawei was sanctioned, uses chips from Qualcomm, Qorvo and Skyworks Solutions. Huawei is a good object lesson on what could happened to them if they cross the line with the US.

Lenovo, largest Russia computer provider, depends on AMD and Intel chips.

My gut feeling is that the Chinese consumer tech companies will not risk their bottom line by crossing the US sanction.

[Easo]

Watch for Mariupol-Kharkiv line. If they manage to take both cities, they'll do a line rush from each cutting off and entrapping thousands of highly trained and skilled fighters.

That map is another guesswork and pretty much outdated. Donbas frontline especially looks wrong.
Hint - it's worse.