Russian invasion of Ukraine

[XDurionX]

Holy fuck....

He even spelled (((globalists))) wrong.

[Flarelaine]

I'm talking to walls. I'm out. Drop your NYT subscriptions or whatever other subscriptions you have and pick up some books or just subscribe to some analysts. They are on lib gen as well.

I wish Skroe was not banned. He had a way of putting things in to words that I miss very much.

I miss his analyses too, but Skroe was warned any number of times to rein in his condescension and all too often open insults.

[Easo]

More news from Russia - Echo Moskvi is pretty much banned now, Roskomnadzor has received a threat/order about blocking Wikipedia due to the certain text lines in the article about the war, chiefly about civilian and soldier deaths.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...89cfccc323.jpg

Adding other recent news together - they are really working on cutting off every little bit of "unofficial" news. I am going to guess - Google, FB, others are likely to soon disappear from Russia. The push is real.

I miss his analyses too, but Skroe was warned any number of times to rein in his condescension and all too often open insults.

I personally think his analysis were quite shitty and too full of STR0NK. But that's just me.

[uuuhname]

I really hate to say it but he is somewhat right not sure if he is right about Russia but democracy blindly implemented leads to disaster. You need gradual changes to the system if you want to avoid collapse, ironically the Chinese (before XI) were the best example of going from totalitarianism to democracy they just didn't go all in.

the problem with Russia in the post soviet collapse was a bunch of dipshit "economists" like Milton Freidman thought it was a great idea to privatize entire swaths of the economy. thus, in the power vacuum left behind by the collapsed government led to not only a bottoming out for the poorest but a power grab for the current class of oligarchs that run the country.

you're correct that a steady and planned change to the economy and the political system is how you get ideal results.

I simply refuse to believe that couldn't be achieved in this day and age as well. it would be a monumental task. but it's possible.

[Belize]

Russia is not Japan.

Heck, USSR went away... and 30 years down the road you have it back exactly like that episode of Simpsons meme.

Because it's literally the same people in charge as it was during the USSR.

"Well nothing's changed, how do you explain that, hah!" That happens when the totalitarian party still controls the 'elections'.

[Elegiac]

A transition to democracy overseen by the US which guaranteed the security of the maritime shipping lanes on which Japan entirely depends on and which was the reason why they went to war in the first place.

Bruh the pre-war Showa government was a shitbox of imperialists and the threats to maritime shipping a response to said shitbox of imperialists doing their thing. You're actually underscoring the similarities between that regime and Russia's present one.

It's not grand strategy, it's literally just folly.

[Voidwielder]

Like, what? We can't be democratic because of that nasty mountain range, or maybe because of our mostly democratic neighbors? So Russians really want to be democratic, they are just victims of this damn geography!

Wait, are you telling me with a straight face that in a plural, actually democratic state all those Caucasus statelets would not eventually secede?

For all intents and purposes, Chechnya for example is already a de facto independent nation state albeit kept alive only thanks to federal subsidies which are used to pacify it by the loyalist man.

[Gaidax]

You two need to get your shitty takes in line..

Frankly seeing people like you, I have little faith Russia will ever do anything different. In the end they will pull out another 91 or another "reset" and you will be cheering only to be shocked again a decade down the road "wait what how did this happen again... again?"

[Forogil]

The only thing holding Russia back is that the old regime is still in control of the government. It has nothing to do with "well things have always been that way". Replace Putin and his oligarch buddies with an actual elected government and I'd be willing to bet things would change.

Possibly, but Putin and his oligarch buddies got to power after Russia had an actual elected government for a short time - so it's not certain that it will work the next time. Not saying that it's impossible - merely that creating a more inclusive elected government can be difficult.

Another possibility is that another oligarch replaces Putin promising democracy and reform and fails to deliver.

[Daymanmb]

Because it's literally the same people in charge as it was during the USSR.

"Well nothing's changed, how do you explain that, hah!" That happens when the totalitarian party still controls the 'elections'.

Theyre making you argue both sides. Void says its geographical and not the people, and Gaidax is saying its the people. Theyre ping ponging btwn awful arguments when you try and counter one of theirs.

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Frankly seeing people like you, I have little faith Russia will ever do anything different.

What sort of crazy take is this? Is this real life?

[Gaidax]

Because it's literally the same people in charge as it was during the USSR.

"Well nothing's changed, how do you explain that, hah!" That happens when the totalitarian party still controls the 'elections'.

And that's my point exactly.

That's why Putin-Shmutin is not the real problem there. In a few years Putin will go (and might be sooner than later), but the system will stay right there as it always was.

[Elegiac]

Wait, are you telling me with a straight face that in a plural, actually democratic state all those Caucasus statelets would not eventually secede?

They wouldn't if the Russian government didn't keep treating its population as "ethnic Russians plus some extras".

[Voidwielder]

Theyre making you argue both sides. Void says its geographical and not the people

Unlike you, I spend hours every day with Russians. I was raised in Kyiv, I have about 2 years total of my life spent in St. Petersburg. I know both of those languages better than my native, to my great shame.

Yes, a fallacy but I do feel strongly that I have sense of the pulse in this topic.

I for one hope people in Western governments are not as delusional as you are. A major, major part of the problem is exactly this kind of unwillingness to reckon with the world as it is and we've been seeing that in Berlin for far too long.

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They wouldn't if the Russian government didn't keep treating its population as "ethnic Russians plus some extras".

Astounding. Profound ignorance of the situation and history of Russia.

[Daymanmb]

Frankly seeing people like you, I have little faith Russia will ever do anything different.

Unlike you, I spend hours every day with Russians.

Youre the same person posting on two accounts, arent you?

[Poopymonster]

7) Putin has basically three options.

One, escalation. Putin challenged Zelensky to a dick-measuring contest on the world stage and was several inches short. Angry, frustrated, and laughed at the world 'round, one option that seems viable is to throw more of his failing tanks and demoralized troops into Ukraine until he just wins by sheer numbers.

You read it here folks, Stronk Russian Studmuffin came up short against...Paddington Bear.

[Belize]

And that's my point exactly.

That's why Putin-Shmutin is not the real problem there. In a few years Putin will go (and might be sooner than later), but the system will stay right there as it always was.

W-which has nothing to do with the inability of the system to change???

Like, I'm arguing that Russia is entirely capable of Democracy like any other country, but that it hasn't happened due to the lack of regime change?

Right, like, when the USSR officially fell apart in 91~ish Russia said "hey guys, no worries we'll hold our own elections haha *wink*" and the west said "yeah, sure that sounds kosher, ya'll have fun" and now we're supposed to be surprised nothing changed??

I'm arguing for giving legitimate democracy a shot in Russia a shot, but am being told that since nothing has changed (when there was no reason for it to) then it's just completely impossible, which is probably the shittest of all takes. Might as well go back to 1920 and tell me women can't vote because they've just never voted! How could they ever adapt to change!

[Elegiac]

Astounding. Profound ignorance of the situation and history of Russia.

Nah, not really. I just understand that the administrative difficulties of managing a large polity pre-1900 aren't really a thing in a largely digitized age and recognize that there has been a persistently enforced ethnic hierarchy within the polities we've called "Russia".

Which is ironic because you keep pointing at Pete Zeihan like the dude hasn't been consistently ignoring cultural and technological factors when it comes to geopolitics because they don't tend to fit in constructions of history as a game of Risk.

[Nurasu]

Unlike you, I spend hours every day with Russians. I was raised in Kyiv, I have about 2 years total of my life spent in St. Petersburg. I know both of those languages better than my native, to my great shame.

Yes, a fallacy but I do feel strongly that I have sense of the pulse in this topic.

I for one hope people in Western governments are not as delusional as you are. A major, major part of the problem is exactly this kind of unwillingness to reckon with the world as it is and we've been seeing that in Berlin for far too long.

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Astounding. Profound ignorance of the situation and history of Russia.

All I hear from this is that you're exposed to greater amounts of Russian propaganda and take it at face value.

[Easo]

Oh yeah, "Dozhdj" is also banned now. It was not perfect, but there was opposition at least.
I have a feeling this might turn into something else, depending how successful the internal propaganda will be.

[Gaidax]

W-which has nothing to do with the inability of the system to change???

Like, I'm arguing that Russia is entirely capable of Democracy like any other country, but that it hasn't happened due to the lack of regime change?

Right, like, when the USSR officially fell apart in 91~ish Russia said "hey guys, no worries we'll hold our own elections haha *wink*" and the west said "yeah, sure that sounds kosher, ya'll have fun" and now we're supposed to be surprised nothing changed??

I'm arguing for giving legitimate democracy a shot in Russia a shot, but am being told that since nothing has changed (when there was no reason for it to) then it's just completely impossible, which is probably the shittest of all takes. Might as well go back to 1920 and tell me women can't vote because they've just never voted! How could they ever adapt to change!

Russia is not capable of shit.

What needs to happen is... heck same shit that happened to Japan - it being occupied for a while and rebuilt from ground up.

It's just a tad unrealistic too.