Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PC2]

Frankly seeing people like you, I have little faith Russia will ever do anything different.

Well you're wrong to be pessimistic based on your anecdotes. Russians won't be okay with what their leaders are doing forever because it's creating bad results for them.

In the end they will pull out another 91 or another "reset" and you will be cheering only to be shocked again a decade down the road "wait what how did this happen again... again?"

Nah you always put Russia and China on a pedestal like they're too powerful to be stopped in the future, and they can just keep being so aggressive forever. That's nonsense.

[Edge-]

SWIFTly, eh?

Sometimes I do things with words : P

[Gaidax]

Nah you always put Russia and China on a pedestal like they're too powerful to be stopped in the future. That's nonsense.

Bruh, I've been through 90s on that side.

Russia can be stopped, but it sure as hell won't be stopped with these taps on the wrist it got so far, no matter how much it's huffed and puffed up as if it brings Russia on its knees.

It's also far from simple "it's all Putin" bait. It's not, it's the system that is integral to whole Russian regime and it's not going to just evaporate there when Putin is no longer a thing in a few years.

Much of what is going on now with this Putin focus just plays into Russia's narrative 5-10 years down the line - "it was just that guy, we totally changed now - look new guy has a charming smile!".

[DarkAmbient]

PM in Sweden is holding a speech to the nation right now which is highly unusual.

Basically spoke about buffing their defences in the face of increased threat https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...totalforsvaret

[Jessicka]

Bruh, I've been through 90s on that side.

Russia can be stopped, but it sure as hell won't be stopped with these taps on the wrist it got so far, no matter how much it's huffed and puffed up as if it brings Russia on its knees.

It's also far from simple "it's all Putin" bait. It's not, it's the system that is integral to whole Russian regime and it's not going to just evaporate there when Putin is no longer a thing in a few years.

Much of what is going on now with this Putin focus just plays into Russia's narrative 5-10 years down the line - "it was just that guy, we totally changed now - look new guy has a charming smile!".

I'm not sure it'll be quite the same, many of the structures involving taking Russian money and energy are going to get torn up by EU now in favour of energy independence, and finally doing something about money laundering and general corruption that came with it; Europe has been burned hard by this and everyone knows it and being seen to be weak on Russia just won't be an option. I mean Germany did a total about face in less than 48 hours over it's foreign, military, and energy policy because it's just not going to be workable for Russia to be a part of it. That'll give Russia a lot less leverage in future should it ever recover economically from this.

[Slant]

Haha "not allowed to deal" - what do you think EU will buy gas for? Roubles?

They are allowed to deal just fine, just not directly through some banks. Their $$ checks out just fine as long as it comes through many sources that are left available.

You should pay more attention to what's really going on. Two announcements that seemed to have flown over your head: a) Germany is going to build LNG Terminals. You know, the kind that everyone else on the planet is using to dock their ships to offload gas. And not Russia. b) Diversifying away from resources that are provided by Russia.

Even if you - through some miracle - win the fight today, Russia has probably lost the best customer it had for the past few decades. So, go ahead, celebrate your... cleverness or whatever you think you're doing, but this ain't a win.

- - - Updated - - -

US isn't dropping special forces at airfields day 1 while the army races to reach them before they all die.

The Russian bombardments and airstrikes were not nearly enough to disable the Ukraine's army compared to how US operates.
Russia didn't immediately establish complete air control.

US took a month to reach Bagdad. That's not a Blitz.
Russia planned to have this war largely over in 3 days.

I told this to my Americans friends yesterday and they laughed at me, but here's my take on it: Russia is trying to emulate the Desert Storm that we all saw on CNN. Looked very impressive, easy almost.

What Russia didn't see was the metric fuckton of planning, logistics and preparation that went on for months ahead of Desert Storm. And the meticulous planning can't be overstated, the air campaigned was planned down to the minute for the first 48h. I'm pretty sure the Russians didn't plan beyond "Cross the border, make a beeline for Kyiv, get drunk and celebrate".

[PC2]

Russia can be stopped, but it sure as hell won't be stopped with these taps on the wrist it got so far, no matter how much it's huffed and puffed up as if it brings Russia on its knees.

Economic war should be sufficient over the long run, but also Europe should still improve their military and expand their military influence eastward in order to start intimidating Russia. It's what they respect.

It's also far from simple "it's all Putin" bait. It's not, it's the system that is integral to whole Russian regime and it's not going to just evaporate there when Putin is no longer a thing in a few years.

Much of what is going on now with this Putin focus just plays into Russia's narrative 5-10 years down the line - "it was just that guy, we totally changed now - look new guy has a charming smile!".

Absolutely on the bolded part, people need to stop focusing on Putin and start focusing on Westernizing Russia's system, philosophy, and economics. Russia has more of a 'closed society', which needs to be changed to an 'open society' such as Europe. Their system needs to become more liberal and capitalistic where the government leaders don't have so much power over the private sector. Their system should guarantee them free speech and protect dissidents from assassination, etc. It's hard to convince people of this though because most people have no clue about what kind of system is optimal for them.

[Slant]

"Anti-US hate boner" lmao. When you get my point, come back, because its incredibly similar.

Which point? That you like whataboutisms?

[Jessicka]

I told this to my Americans friends yesterday and they laughed at me, but here's my take on it: Russia is trying to emulate the Desert Storm that we all saw on CNN. Looked very impressive, easy almost.

What Russia didn't see was the metric fuckton of planning, logistics and preparation that went on for months ahead of Desert Storm. And the meticulous planning can't be overstated, the air campaigned was planned down to the minute for the first 48h. I'm pretty sure the Russians didn't plan beyond "Cross the border, make a beeline for Kyiv, get drunk and celebrate".

Here's the thing, NATO thought it was achievable as well, and were as surprised I guess as Russia that it didn't pan out. Both NATO and Russia will have wargamed it extensively. Something has gone horribly wrong logistically, presumably it's the Ukrainian strikes on the convoys, but again, NATO probably wargamed that out and decided that was the best approach in how they could help; which is why much of the material support we're now giving is more of the same kind of kit. One can only guess Russia didn't anticipate that.

[uuuhname]

people need to stop focusing on Putin and start focusing on Westernizing Russia's system

holy crap the only way people like you know how "westernize" countries is to do the exact things that lead to this situation we're currently in.

It's hard to convince people of this though because most people have no clue about what kind of system is optimal for them.

irony load: hefty

[Daymanmb]

Which point? That you like whataboutisms?

It wasnt whataboutism at all.. not even a little bit lol

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Bruh, I've been through 90s on that side.

Russia can be stopped, but it sure as hell won't be stopped with these taps on the wrist it got so far, no matter how much it's huffed and puffed up as if it brings Russia on its knees.

It's also far from simple "it's all Putin" bait. It's not, it's the system that is integral to whole Russian regime and it's not going to just evaporate there when Putin is no longer a thing in a few years.

Much of what is going on now with this Putin focus just plays into Russia's narrative 5-10 years down the line - "it was just that guy, we totally changed now - look new guy has a charming smile!".

They could even get someone from a minority to show how inclusive they are, or a women even. Maybe a German or a Georgian again? They've had Ukrainian too already, so maybe time for some Mongolic or Turkic? That could lead to some interesting developments...

[Gaidax]

You should pay more attention to what's really going on. Two announcements that seemed to have flown over your head: a) Germany is going to build LNG Terminals. You know, the kind that everyone else on the planet is using to dock their ships to offload gas. And not Russia. b) Diversifying away from resources that are provided by Russia.

Even if you - through some miracle - win the fight today, Russia has probably lost the best customer it had for the past few decades. So, go ahead, celebrate your... cleverness or whatever you think you're doing, but this ain't a win.

I think you don't quite grasp that all that will take years.

And then the problem specifically with many Eastern European states is that there is simply no infrastructure to deliver gas from West to East.

Yes, Europe will need to double down getting off that Russian pipe, but it's not going to happen for many years still.

--

Also who the fuck is "you" - do you legit think I'm team Russia or something? Give it a rest, y'all?

[Vakna]

Legit question, should the Russian Defence Ministry change it's name to the Russian Offense Ministry now that it has abandoned all pretence?

[Gaidax]

They could even get someone from a minority to show how inclusive they are, or a women even. Maybe a German or a Georgian again? They've had Ukrainian too already, so maybe time for some Mongolic or Turkic? That could lead to some interesting developments...

I legit think they might even pull out a Navalny too. Why not, Aung San Suu Kyi did work for a while for the system too, after all.

[wunksta]

Absolutely on the bolded part, people need to stop focusing on Putin and start focusing on Westernizing Russia's system, philosophy, and economics. Russia has more of a 'closed society', which needs to be changed to an 'open society' such as Europe. Their system needs to become more liberal and capitalistic where the government leaders don't have so much power over the private sector. Their system should guarantee them free speech and protect dissidents from assassination, etc. It's hard to convince people of this though because most people have no clue about what kind of system is optimal for them.

That's what western leaders did in Russia between 1991-1998.

[Gaidax]

That's what western leaders did in Russia between 1991-1998.

There sure was a lot of copium, hopium and discounts on that one. Result you see today.

90s were sure a wild ride, many Russian/Ukrainian oligarchs you hear about today are opportunists or outright bandits from 90s.

[Easo]

If you want to get Russians in the streets then the time has come - Apple and Nike have stopped selling from their online shops and are warning that deliveries are not guaranteed.

[Elegiac]

If you want to get Russians in the streets then the time has come - Apple and Nike have stopped selling from their online shops and are warning that deliveries are not guaranteed.

...I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of gopniks suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened.

[Poopymonster]

If you want to get Russians in the streets then the time has come - Apple and Nike have stopped selling from their online shops and are warning that deliveries are not guaranteed.

If Adidas tracksuits are removed, there will be riots.