Russian invasion of Ukraine

[snebb]

I haven't seen many comments about this yet. This is the second municipal council in Moscow to apparently make such comments.

Municipal council in Moscow's Khamovniki District condemns Putin's invasion of Ukraine as "insane" and "unjustified," adding: "Our economy is going to hell"

[Azadina]

I missed this one yesterday. He has totally lost it if he has plans for that. He has plans for Moldova as well. wtf
https://nypost.com/2022/03/01/belaru...rough-ukraine/

Guy is really going full Hitler. How long until he officially announces himself as The Führer of Russian 4th Reich.

[Corvus]

I haven't seen many comments about this yet. This is the second municipal council in Moscow to apparently make such comments.

Poor buggers better stay away from open windows. If the authorities are throwing children behind bars for protesting then government officials are liable to have 'accidents'.

[ifrah]

It's a storm much more weatherable for the west than for Russia, and I don't think China will be able to "push all their chips" and capitalize on it in any particularly meaningful or power-play way, which is what I was originally contesting. China may be fourth in oil production, but it's a distant fourth, not nearly enough to replace Russia.

And if that gets people using less fuel... hey, great.

Russia will sell their oil to whoever is in line to buy that. With all that's going on it's unlikely for them to be willing to sell it to the west any more than for the west is there to buy it. From more or less structural must-dos there will be some trade, but a significant collapse is possible, if not inevitable. Europeans will pay dearly, and that will seriously shake the today seemingly surprisingly uniform front they're presenting. How long is it going to be all "We stand united, whatever it takes" until the citizens want their pre-war standards of life back, remains to be seen.
Russians, well, they won't be unscathed, pretty far from it. They, however, are resilient people to begin with, and under quite heavy oppression. For most people it's about making the end's meet, so anything close to revolution or ousting Putin are still rather distant dreams.
China has no moral restrictions nor protesting people or dangers of embargo in their playbook. Surely, if they played their cards utterly recklessly right now, they could be caught under fire, but the fact that they know - and what they will exploit to the end - is that the whole world economy is too reliant on them. Of course they need the trade surplus to keep their machine running, and are showing at least some formal compassion and cooperation now, but that's their game. They know that the west, especially EU, will be strained very hard, probably beyond their limits, by the Russian sanctions, so what a lucrative position to do your things?

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

According to some analysis, the Russian have been cozying the Taliban, with the long term goal of supplying Natural Gas to Pakistan and India.

[Elegiac]

They know that the west, especially EU, will be strained very hard, probably beyond their limits, by the Russian sanctions

You're massively overstating people's reliance on Russian exports. Fun fact, habibi; everything Russia provides can be got elsewhere. The sanctions are just a kick in the rear to start investing in those alternatives.

This is just more "let Putain do whatever he wants, or else" posturing on your part.

[ifrah]

You're massively overstating people's reliance on Russian exports. Fun fact, habibi; everything Russia provides can be got elsewhere. The sanctions are just a kick in the rear to start investing in those alternatives.

This is just more "let Putain do whatever he wants, or else" posturing on your part.

True, and just as a side note, I probably dislike that dictator just as much as anyone out here, I just try not to look things with too much emotion.
The problem there is not that oil and gas would not exist elsewhere, but getting the amount EU needs and when it needs it. If you close down the existing supply, it's not just going to Aldi instead of Woolworths or whatever. Doable, as said, certainly so. Will the already inflated prices continue their hike to staggering all time highs? Most likely yes for that too. Will it start to bother people? Absolutely.
How bad/good will things unfold, I've no clue, probably quite challenging. And I most sincerely hope this unity that's being shown today won't be a month-long fad. I'm sceptic, but happy to be proven wrong.

[Elegiac]

The problem there is not that oil and gas would not exist elsewhere, but getting the amount EU needs and when it needs it. If you close down the existing supply, it's not just going to Aldi instead of Woolworths or whatever.

No one claimed it was; the point is that Russian exports have represented a massive and needless national security risk for Western countries even before 2014 and the pressure to invest in alternatives is not something that has appeared overnight, nor is it something that is going to go away in six months.

[alkyd]

I missed this one yesterday. He has totally lost it if he has plans for that. He has plans for Moldova as well. wtf
https://nypost.com/2022/03/01/belaru...rough-ukraine/

Everything that is marked on the map, is on Ukraine's territory. Moldova seems to be untouched.

I think it's just a clickbait article by NY post. I expected them to be better than this.

[PhaelixWW]

Everything that is marked on the map, is on Ukraine's territory. Moldova seems to be untouched.

I think it's just a clickbait article by NY post. I expected them to be better than this.

Meh, I suppose this could just be representing forces sent from Odesa to secure the border to Moldova, but the shading and arrow make it look like it's calling for an entry past the border.

[Yunru]

The Chinese will likely profess neutrality, call for restraint on all sides and some other platitudes, then they'll proceed to buy up every drop of oil and gas the Russians have at rock bottom prices and then price gouge the ever living shit out of Russia on all the stuff they won't be able to buy from anywhere else.

But they'll avoid investing in Russian assets of any kind. (Major Chinese state banks are already dodging Russian assets) They still haven't sorted the issues with their own real estate bubble, they have no interest in dumping their cash reserves into Russian junk.

China could try to use their wortless currency (wich they print on demand) into russa as a option of payment for russan people.
Since they cant be sanctioned due to it.

[Mihalik]

Guy is really going full Hitler. How long until he officially announces himself as The Führer of Russian 4th Reich.

In for a kopeck, in for a ruble! If he's doing Lebensraum, he might as well go full Lebensraum before he poisons and shoots himself in a bunker.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Everything that is marked on the map, is on Ukraine's territory. Moldova seems to be untouched.

I think it's just a clickbait article by NY post. I expected them to be better than this.

I think they either made it overblown or misinterpreted the pink area matching Transnistria.

- - - Updated - - -

Meh, I suppose this could just be representing forces sent from Odesa to secure the border to Moldova, but the shading and arrow make it look like it's calling for an entry past the border.

Again, nothing new. That pink area is somewhat of a remnant of the Soviet Union since the 90s, not controlled by Moldova, and with several thousands of Russian peacekeepers on the ground.

[Gaidax]

There's only one out come to end the war, Russia fucks off. And shills like you need to stop pretending there is a compromise in which Russia holds parts of Ukraine. The only ones burning cities and putting civilian on the streets is Russia. All they need to do is stop shelling cities. It's only one side that needs to do anything.

Don't talk nonsense, all you did with your "shills" is just get into my ignore and filter list, so this is probably last time I respond to you.

Let me get this straight - a bunch of Westerners here live in some sort of dreamland, they think that these meek sanctions that do not even touch energy sector are going to be bringing Russia down to its knees. They think Europe is going to conjure out of thin air the capability to replace their Russian energy addiction. They think that Russia won't be able to use its huge war chest to weather this for many years.

And finally, they think what they have seen so far in Ukraine is all that Russia got.


So yes, I point out that much of it, because unlike a bunch of you I'm not just some yank or cockney from thousands kilometers from there. I lived there half of my life, I was educated in Ukraine, I know the history and the mindset of the people both sides because I was born in Ukraine and ethnically Russian in one part and Jewish in other (just like Zelensky btw). I know Russian and Ukrainian and shit people like you need to Google Translate (if you even bother) - I can read and understand natively.

So yes, allow me not to share some of these hopiums and copiums going on here, simply because I know the history of the region and what Ukraine and Russia are from inside out. Me pointing all the above out does not mean I am a "shill", I'm pushing 40s and I am simply a realist.

My biggest "illusion" here, if you'd say, is that I hope the talks Ukraine/Russia have now are not just for show, but will actually deliver seize fire before cities get turned into rubble and before they start touching the beautiful city of Odessa I was born in that Russia is sure eyeing as a big prize, because it's a key port city of Ukraine.

The rest stuff I post my opinion on is simply a grim and somber reality, sure does not sound nice to Western ears, but it is how it is.


TLDR - my take is not because I'm a "shill", it's because I'm a realist and it clashes because too many people here are "living in the movie" about quite a few things regarding this situation. I'd like to see Putin gone just as much as the lot of you and Russia suddenly become democratic happy lands too, what it never really was ever.

[Mihalik]

According to some analysis, the Russian have been cozying the Taliban, with the long term goal of supplying Natural Gas to Pakistan and India.

That makes sense....in theory.

But do you really want (assuming they are able to, which is not given as almost all oil pipelines and such infrastructure is built under contract by mostly European builders, so I'm not convinced the Russians are actually able to build anything, tho the Chinese might be able to help out with that) to put your multi billion dollar pipelines in the territory of a country where the government is basically just a coalition of drug cartels, religious fanatics and local warlords, whose control over the countryside is...sketchy at best?

Add to that that building pipelines and the necessary maintenance infrastructure requires stuff like...roads, first.

[Elegiac]

Let me get this straight - a bunch of Westerners here live in some sort of dreamland, they think that these meek sanctions that do not even touch energy sector are going to be bringing Russia down to its knees. They think Europe is going to conjure out of thin air the capability to replace their Russian energy addiction.

Doesn't this argument go both ways since you don't actually live in the EU and Slant does? Rofl.

[Strawberry]

People said the same thing about Vietnam,and we all know how that turned out.

Vietnam was a proxy war. Just like Syria.
This is not. This is not even a war. This is an invasion. Russia is NOT targeting civilians, but when you bomb something, innocent people tend to die.
It sucks, but I repeat, Russia is NOT targeting civilians at all.

[alkyd]

Vietnam was a proxy war. Just like Syria.
This is not. This is not even a war. This is an invasion. Russia is NOT targeting civilians, but when you bomb something, innocent people tend to die.
It sucks, but I repeat, Russia is NOT targeting civilians at all.

How was Vietnam a proxy war. Can you elaborate please?

[Elegiac]

It sucks, but I repeat, Russia is NOT targeting civilians at all.

Citation needed.

[MCMLXXXII]

By that logic WW2 was an invasion too