1. #6161
    Quote Originally Posted by Uzkin View Post
    Kremlin doing a 180 on their official narrative now would result in ousting Putin. My proposition would achieve the *official* narrative of Kremlin, they'd have to agree to it or the people would turn against them.
    I fear you are not going to find much support for achieving any Kremlin narrative in these parts.

  2. #6162
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    Quote Originally Posted by swdan View Post
    Writing you from Kyiv city. air raid sirens are on most of the day.
    got any questions? 3.2.1. go
    Would be great if you posted a couple lines every day about anything you want, just to show that internet still works there.

    Here's a question for you: am I assuming correctly that even if Russians conquer entire government district in central Kyiv, Ukrainians will say "the building is not the government" and will never ever agree to a peace that gives up a part of Ukraine? Or I'm wrong and some other posters here are right, and there are concessions acceptable for peace from common people point of view?
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  3. #6163
    Quote Originally Posted by Uzkin View Post
    Kremlin doing a 180 on their official narrative now would result in ousting Putin. My proposition would achieve the *official* narrative of Kremlin, they'd have to agree to it or the people would turn against them.
    They control the hearts and minds of 90 something percent of the population. I can easily imagine Putin spinning less desirable outcome as ''Seeing the X has led me to take Y action which has resulted in the Z which undoubtedly is positive (because I said so)''.

    They'll swallow it and ask for more. Putin, the great Peacemaker and Peacekeeper.

  4. #6164
    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    Russian victory means millions or refugees and probably a major gorilla war within European borders.
    So no a Russian victory doesn't mean less causalities it means more deaths in the short and long term.

    Russian loss is the only way to end this shit
    There is no loss Putin will tolerate. There are 3 ways this ends: 1) for the price of some fines, Putin turns Ukraine into a smoldering ruin and installs Yanukovych; 2) sometime after he destroys Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, the West finally (?) gets involved and there are even more catastrophic losses; 3) Putin dies.
    Last edited by Levelfive; 2022-03-02 at 03:14 PM.
    Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. --Frank Wilhoit

  5. #6165
    Brewmaster Uzkin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    I fear you are not going to find much support for achieving any Kremlin narrative in these parts.
    Surely not much on these forums with all the keyboard warriors around. But I don't care. Zelensky said UA would be up for it, as long as their safety is guaranteed.

  6. #6166
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levelfive View Post
    There is no loss Putin will tolerate. There are 3 ways this ends: 1) for the price of some fines, Putin turns Ukraine into a smoldering ruin and installs Yanukovych; 2) sometime after he destroys Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, the West finally (?) gets involved and there are even more catastrophic losses; 3) Putin dies.
    Or 4) Putin is removed from power internally and there are peace talks with his successor, whoever that will be.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  7. #6167
    "Removed" is covered by 3.
    Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. --Frank Wilhoit

  8. #6168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levelfive View Post
    "Removed" is covered by 3.
    But he lives happily ever after, serving life without parole, so not really 3. Maybe 3a at best.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  9. #6169
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    But he lives happily ever after, serving life without parole, so not really 3. Maybe 3a at best.
    I cannot imagine a scenario in which "removed" is anything more than a euphemism, but I'll grant that you can.
    Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. --Frank Wilhoit

  10. #6170
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levelfive View Post
    I cannot imagine a scenario in which "removed" is anything more than a euphemism, but I'll grant that you can.
    As Gaidax pointed out recently, Khrushchev was deposed - but he was just forced into retirement and died in old age from natural causes. No doubt that was also plan for Gorbachov during 1991 coup. Neither of those was viewed as a war criminal though, so probably no happy retirement for Putin if that happens.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  11. #6171
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    As Gaidax pointed out recently, Khrushchev was deposed - but he was just forced into retirement and died in old age from natural causes. No doubt that was also plan for Gorbachov during 1991 coup. Neither of those was viewed as a war criminal though, so probably no happy retirement for Putin if that happens.
    He still enjoys massive popularity and despite the initial stalling, the war is still going on in favour of Russia.

    If the situation hasn't changed much in a month and the sanctions bite as hard as they might... well, one day we might wake up in a world where Russian state TV has Swan Lake on loop.

  12. #6172
    Quote Originally Posted by Voidwielder View Post
    But Russia will never agree to it - it simply will not tolerate Ukraine outside of it's sphere of influence. They've had it with guessing about the outcomes of elections - once Kyiv falls or capitulates, you'll see an establishment of a dictatorship backed by mixed Belarus-Chechen-Russian occupational force.
    Russia's got no say in it unless they're prepared to occupy and suppress the local population for generations.
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  13. #6173
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Russia's got no say in it unless they're prepared to occupy and suppress the local population for generations.
    *checks notes* Last I heard it's Russia that has troops on the ground so I say with high degree of confidence that Russia has the only say on what happens in Ukraine once Kyiv is taken one way or the other.

  14. #6174
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voidwielder View Post
    *checks notes* Last I heard it's Russia that has troops on the ground so I say with high degree of confidence that Russia has the only say on what happens in Ukraine once Kyiv is taken one way or the other.
    Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm Part 2 Dubya Boogaloo played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  15. #6175
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.
    This isn't apples and oranges, this potatoes and mangoes.

  16. #6176
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voidwielder View Post
    This isn't apples and oranges, this potatoes and mangoes.
    Well yeah, because Iraq was a) actually planned meticulously ahead of time instead of being scribbled on a napkin over vodka and borscht on a Saturday, and b) did not face significant civilian resistance at first.

    But in terms of the subsequent occupation being pretty much an exercise in lighting gigantic piles of cash on fire? They're absolutely comparable.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  17. #6177
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uzkin View Post
    I don't care. Zelensky said they are up for demilitarization if their safety is guaranteed.
    Russian word on remaining non-hostile in such an agreement can't possibly be trusted. Zelensky might agree to this in the moment to get Russian troops to fuck off, but I doubt he'd actually follow through, and he'd be right not to. Russia's already violating earlier agreements. When the USSR broke up, independent Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world. They disarmed completely, in exchange for a promise that Russia would respect their borders. Clearly, Russia did not abide by that agreement, so any "demilitarization" is just rolling over and exposing your belly to an enemy you know is going to attack you again in the future.

    Particularly when Russia is spectacularly failing to achieve any meaningful goals here. Their military incompetence is being exposed on the world stage.


  18. #6178
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uzkin View Post
    I don't care. Zelensky said they are up for demilitarization if their safety is guaranteed. I can't think of a better safety guarantee than Article 5. Well, except maybe if China agreed to establish a peace-keeping mission in UA. That's an alternative option to my point (2), lets call it (2'). Russia would never attack a Chinese mission.
    You might not care, but I can guarantee you Ukraine will in their considerations for what "safety guarantee" means.

    "safety is guaranteed" for Ukraine should be read as them asking for NATO membership and a hastened path into the EU, not just getting some vague words on paper from Russia that they'll behave. If Ukraine survives this as an independent state we're far beyond that now.

  19. #6179
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm Part 2 Dubya Boogaloo played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.
    A civilian population becomes significantly easier to control once you stop worrying about things like Rules of Engagement and human rights.

    If Russia occupies Ukraine they will literally beat the population until they are to numb to resist.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  20. #6180
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    Russia agreeing to anything isn't worth the paper signed on.
    Or the near criminal waste of ink.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    True, I was just bored and tired but you are correct.

    Last edited by Thwart; Today at 05:21 PM. Reason: Infracted for flaming
    Quote Originally Posted by epigramx View Post
    millennials were the kids of the 9/11 survivors.

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