Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Cynep]

Writing you from Kyiv city. air raid sirens are on most of the day.
got any questions? 3.2.1. go

Would be great if you posted a couple lines every day about anything you want, just to show that internet still works there.

Here's a question for you: am I assuming correctly that even if Russians conquer entire government district in central Kyiv, Ukrainians will say "the building is not the government" and will never ever agree to a peace that gives up a part of Ukraine? Or I'm wrong and some other posters here are right, and there are concessions acceptable for peace from common people point of view?

[Voidwielder]

Kremlin doing a 180 on their official narrative now would result in ousting Putin. My proposition would achieve the *official* narrative of Kremlin, they'd have to agree to it or the people would turn against them.

They control the hearts and minds of 90 something percent of the population. I can easily imagine Putin spinning less desirable outcome as ''Seeing the X has led me to take Y action which has resulted in the Z which undoubtedly is positive (because I said so)''.

They'll swallow it and ask for more. Putin, the great Peacemaker and Peacekeeper.

[Levelfive]

Russian victory means millions or refugees and probably a major gorilla war within European borders.
So no a Russian victory doesn't mean less causalities it means more deaths in the short and long term.

Russian loss is the only way to end this shit

There is no loss Putin will tolerate. There are 3 ways this ends: 1) for the price of some fines, Putin turns Ukraine into a smoldering ruin and installs Yanukovych; 2) sometime after he destroys Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, the West finally (?) gets involved and there are even more catastrophic losses; 3) Putin dies.

[Uzkin]

I fear you are not going to find much support for achieving any Kremlin narrative in these parts.

Surely not much on these forums with all the keyboard warriors around. But I don't care. Zelensky said UA would be up for it, as long as their safety is guaranteed.

[Cynep]

There is no loss Putin will tolerate. There are 3 ways this ends: 1) for the price of some fines, Putin turns Ukraine into a smoldering ruin and installs Yanukovych; 2) sometime after he destroys Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, the West finally (?) gets involved and there are even more catastrophic losses; 3) Putin dies.

Or 4) Putin is removed from power internally and there are peace talks with his successor, whoever that will be.

[Levelfive]

"Removed" is covered by 3.

[Cynep]

"Removed" is covered by 3.

But he lives happily ever after, serving life without parole, so not really 3. Maybe 3a at best.

[Levelfive]

But he lives happily ever after, serving life without parole, so not really 3. Maybe 3a at best.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which "removed" is anything more than a euphemism, but I'll grant that you can.

[Cynep]

I cannot imagine a scenario in which "removed" is anything more than a euphemism, but I'll grant that you can.

As Gaidax pointed out recently, Khrushchev was deposed - but he was just forced into retirement and died in old age from natural causes. No doubt that was also plan for Gorbachov during 1991 coup. Neither of those was viewed as a war criminal though, so probably no happy retirement for Putin if that happens.

[Voidwielder]

As Gaidax pointed out recently, Khrushchev was deposed - but he was just forced into retirement and died in old age from natural causes. No doubt that was also plan for Gorbachov during 1991 coup. Neither of those was viewed as a war criminal though, so probably no happy retirement for Putin if that happens.

He still enjoys massive popularity and despite the initial stalling, the war is still going on in favour of Russia.

If the situation hasn't changed much in a month and the sanctions bite as hard as they might... well, one day we might wake up in a world where Russian state TV has Swan Lake on loop.

[Slant]

But Russia will never agree to it - it simply will not tolerate Ukraine outside of it's sphere of influence. They've had it with guessing about the outcomes of elections - once Kyiv falls or capitulates, you'll see an establishment of a dictatorship backed by mixed Belarus-Chechen-Russian occupational force.

Russia's got no say in it unless they're prepared to occupy and suppress the local population for generations.

[Voidwielder]

Russia's got no say in it unless they're prepared to occupy and suppress the local population for generations.

*checks notes* Last I heard it's Russia that has troops on the ground so I say with high degree of confidence that Russia has the only say on what happens in Ukraine once Kyiv is taken one way or the other.

[Elegiac]

*checks notes* Last I heard it's Russia that has troops on the ground so I say with high degree of confidence that Russia has the only say on what happens in Ukraine once Kyiv is taken one way or the other.

Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm Part 2 Dubya Boogaloo played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.

[Voidwielder]

Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.

This isn't apples and oranges, this potatoes and mangoes.

[Elegiac]

This isn't apples and oranges, this potatoes and mangoes.

Well yeah, because Iraq was a) actually planned meticulously ahead of time instead of being scribbled on a napkin over vodka and borscht on a Saturday, and b) did not face significant civilian resistance at first.

But in terms of the subsequent occupation being pretty much an exercise in lighting gigantic piles of cash on fire? They're absolutely comparable.

[Endus]

I don't care. Zelensky said they are up for demilitarization if their safety is guaranteed.

Russian word on remaining non-hostile in such an agreement can't possibly be trusted. Zelensky might agree to this in the moment to get Russian troops to fuck off, but I doubt he'd actually follow through, and he'd be right not to. Russia's already violating earlier agreements. When the USSR broke up, independent Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world. They disarmed completely, in exchange for a promise that Russia would respect their borders. Clearly, Russia did not abide by that agreement, so any "demilitarization" is just rolling over and exposing your belly to an enemy you know is going to attack you again in the future.

Particularly when Russia is spectacularly failing to achieve any meaningful goals here. Their military incompetence is being exposed on the world stage.

[zealo]

I don't care. Zelensky said they are up for demilitarization if their safety is guaranteed. I can't think of a better safety guarantee than Article 5. Well, except maybe if China agreed to establish a peace-keeping mission in UA. That's an alternative option to my point (2), lets call it (2'). Russia would never attack a Chinese mission.

You might not care, but I can guarantee you Ukraine will in their considerations for what "safety guarantee" means.

"safety is guaranteed" for Ukraine should be read as them asking for NATO membership and a hastened path into the EU, not just getting some vague words on paper from Russia that they'll behave. If Ukraine survives this as an independent state we're far beyond that now.

[Gorsameth]

Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm Part 2 Dubya Boogaloo played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.

A civilian population becomes significantly easier to control once you stop worrying about things like Rules of Engagement and human rights.

If Russia occupies Ukraine they will literally beat the population until they are to numb to resist.

[Azadina]

Russia agreeing to anything isn't worth the paper signed on.

Or the near criminal waste of ink.

[Breccia]

Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm Part 2 Dubya Boogaloo played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.

I can't imagine the occupation of Ukraine is a well-planned setup by now. And based on what we're seeing, even if it was planned, those plans should be revised heavily. Not just because the Ukrainian people have proven they really don't want Russian forces there, although that's important (I stand with TechnoDoor). Not just because it would rely on Russian soldiers who clearly don't want to be there either, although that's important too. But because the invasion took such a big hit on their economy that leaving an expensive force to control the country is no longer a winning proposition.

Russian rouble plunges to new low in Moscow, stays even weaker abroad

Funny, until recently I never thought of looking at how a currency unit, like the ruble, might have different values in different places. Russia made themselves into an excellent field experiment into such by having no ability to trade their currency for a better one, while also running out of what better currencies they have (seriously that $10,000 thing is insane, I still can't get over it). And there's some Animal Farm bullshit going on I'm sure, where everyone is being told rules which apply to everyone...except the rich oligarchs, of course, who are likely sleeping with their remaining dollars/euros under their pillow.

March 2

For posterity.

The rouble plunged to a record low in Moscow of 110 to the dollar on Wednesday and the stock market remained closed as Russia's financial system staggered under the weight of Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The rouble was 7.3% weaker on the day at 108.60 against the dollar as of 0941 GMT in Moscow trade , earlier hitting 110.0, an all-time low. It has lost about a third of its value against the dollar since the start of the year.

It had shed 7.1% on Wednesday to trade at 120.50 to the euro .

For the third day in a row, the rouble was weaker outside Russia, trading at 115 to the dollar on the EBS electronic trading platform, but still off the all-time low of 120 hit on Monday.

Russia has responded by doubling interest rates to 20% and telling companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency revenues on the domestic market as the central bank, or CBR, which is now under Western sanctions, has stopped foreign exchange interventions.

JP Morgan said there was a deep recession in the making for Russia and was re-assessing its regional macro forecasts.

"The most recent measures targeting the CBR have completely changed the picture," JP Morgan said.

"Russia's large current account surplus could have accommodated large capital outflows, but with accompanying CBR and SWIFT sanctions, on top of the existing restrictions, it is likely that Russia's export earnings will be disrupted, and capital outflows will likely be immediate."

As households and businesses in Russia have rushed to convert the falling rouble into foreign currency, banks raised rates for foreign currency deposits.

Russia's largest lender Sberbank (SBER.MM) is offering to pay 4% on deposits of up to $1,000, while the largest private lender Alfa Bank is offering 8% on three-month dollar deposits. For rouble deposits, Sberbank offers a 20% annual return.

Sberbank said on Wednesday it was quitting almost all European markets, blaming big cash outflows and threats to its staff and property, after the ECB ordered the closure of its European arm.

The weak rouble will hit living standards in Russia and fan already high inflation, while Western sanctions are expected to create shortages of essential goods and services such as cars or flights

A lot of this makes sense in retrospect. "Those dollars aren't good for you," Putin is saying, "you better let me hold them for now". I completely get why Russia's state-controlled banks would give up more rubles for dollars, if it means that Putin gets the dollars and his poor citizens are stuck with a rapidly leaking useless currency.

The bolded and blue? Completely lost. Why pay such a high interest rate for ruble deposits? My best guess is, while the rubles are in the bank, the bank can stop them from being exchanged for dollars, fine, but like I said before they can and are buying up all the dollars.

Can someone explain that 4% vs. 20% discrepency? I can't get my head around it.