Would be great if you posted a couple lines every day about anything you want, just to show that internet still works there.
Here's a question for you: am I assuming correctly that even if Russians conquer entire government district in central Kyiv, Ukrainians will say "the building is not the government" and will never ever agree to a peace that gives up a part of Ukraine? Or I'm wrong and some other posters here are right, and there are concessions acceptable for peace from common people point of view?
They control the hearts and minds of 90 something percent of the population. I can easily imagine Putin spinning less desirable outcome as ''Seeing the X has led me to take Y action which has resulted in the Z which undoubtedly is positive (because I said so)''.
They'll swallow it and ask for more. Putin, the great Peacemaker and Peacekeeper.
There is no loss Putin will tolerate. There are 3 ways this ends: 1) for the price of some fines, Putin turns Ukraine into a smoldering ruin and installs Yanukovych; 2) sometime after he destroys Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, the West finally (?) gets involved and there are even more catastrophic losses; 3) Putin dies.
Last edited by Levelfive; 2022-03-02 at 03:14 PM.
Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. --Frank Wilhoit
"Removed" is covered by 3.
Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. --Frank Wilhoit
Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. --Frank Wilhoit
As Gaidax pointed out recently, Khrushchev was deposed - but he was just forced into retirement and died in old age from natural causes. No doubt that was also plan for Gorbachov during 1991 coup. Neither of those was viewed as a war criminal though, so probably no happy retirement for Putin if that happens.
He still enjoys massive popularity and despite the initial stalling, the war is still going on in favour of Russia.
If the situation hasn't changed much in a month and the sanctions bite as hard as they might... well, one day we might wake up in a world where Russian state TV has Swan Lake on loop.
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PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.
Well yeah, because Iraq was a) actually planned meticulously ahead of time instead of being scribbled on a napkin over vodka and borscht on a Saturday, and b) did not face significant civilian resistance at first.
But in terms of the subsequent occupation being pretty much an exercise in lighting gigantic piles of cash on fire? They're absolutely comparable.
Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
Russian word on remaining non-hostile in such an agreement can't possibly be trusted. Zelensky might agree to this in the moment to get Russian troops to fuck off, but I doubt he'd actually follow through, and he'd be right not to. Russia's already violating earlier agreements. When the USSR broke up, independent Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world. They disarmed completely, in exchange for a promise that Russia would respect their borders. Clearly, Russia did not abide by that agreement, so any "demilitarization" is just rolling over and exposing your belly to an enemy you know is going to attack you again in the future.
Particularly when Russia is spectacularly failing to achieve any meaningful goals here. Their military incompetence is being exposed on the world stage.
You might not care, but I can guarantee you Ukraine will in their considerations for what "safety guarantee" means.
"safety is guaranteed" for Ukraine should be read as them asking for NATO membership and a hastened path into the EU, not just getting some vague words on paper from Russia that they'll behave. If Ukraine survives this as an independent state we're far beyond that now.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death