Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

Y'all are really out here forgetting how Desert Storm Part 2 Dubya Boogaloo played out, huh? And that invasion wasn't the circus we're seeing from the Russian military.

I can't imagine the occupation of Ukraine is a well-planned setup by now. And based on what we're seeing, even if it was planned, those plans should be revised heavily. Not just because the Ukrainian people have proven they really don't want Russian forces there, although that's important (I stand with TechnoDoor). Not just because it would rely on Russian soldiers who clearly don't want to be there either, although that's important too. But because the invasion took such a big hit on their economy that leaving an expensive force to control the country is no longer a winning proposition.

Russian rouble plunges to new low in Moscow, stays even weaker abroad

Funny, until recently I never thought of looking at how a currency unit, like the ruble, might have different values in different places. Russia made themselves into an excellent field experiment into such by having no ability to trade their currency for a better one, while also running out of what better currencies they have (seriously that $10,000 thing is insane, I still can't get over it). And there's some Animal Farm bullshit going on I'm sure, where everyone is being told rules which apply to everyone...except the rich oligarchs, of course, who are likely sleeping with their remaining dollars/euros under their pillow.

March 2

For posterity.

The rouble plunged to a record low in Moscow of 110 to the dollar on Wednesday and the stock market remained closed as Russia's financial system staggered under the weight of Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The rouble was 7.3% weaker on the day at 108.60 against the dollar as of 0941 GMT in Moscow trade , earlier hitting 110.0, an all-time low. It has lost about a third of its value against the dollar since the start of the year.

It had shed 7.1% on Wednesday to trade at 120.50 to the euro .

For the third day in a row, the rouble was weaker outside Russia, trading at 115 to the dollar on the EBS electronic trading platform, but still off the all-time low of 120 hit on Monday.

Russia has responded by doubling interest rates to 20% and telling companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency revenues on the domestic market as the central bank, or CBR, which is now under Western sanctions, has stopped foreign exchange interventions.

JP Morgan said there was a deep recession in the making for Russia and was re-assessing its regional macro forecasts.

"The most recent measures targeting the CBR have completely changed the picture," JP Morgan said.

"Russia's large current account surplus could have accommodated large capital outflows, but with accompanying CBR and SWIFT sanctions, on top of the existing restrictions, it is likely that Russia's export earnings will be disrupted, and capital outflows will likely be immediate."

As households and businesses in Russia have rushed to convert the falling rouble into foreign currency, banks raised rates for foreign currency deposits.

Russia's largest lender Sberbank (SBER.MM) is offering to pay 4% on deposits of up to $1,000, while the largest private lender Alfa Bank is offering 8% on three-month dollar deposits. For rouble deposits, Sberbank offers a 20% annual return.

Sberbank said on Wednesday it was quitting almost all European markets, blaming big cash outflows and threats to its staff and property, after the ECB ordered the closure of its European arm.

The weak rouble will hit living standards in Russia and fan already high inflation, while Western sanctions are expected to create shortages of essential goods and services such as cars or flights

A lot of this makes sense in retrospect. "Those dollars aren't good for you," Putin is saying, "you better let me hold them for now". I completely get why Russia's state-controlled banks would give up more rubles for dollars, if it means that Putin gets the dollars and his poor citizens are stuck with a rapidly leaking useless currency.

The bolded and blue? Completely lost. Why pay such a high interest rate for ruble deposits? My best guess is, while the rubles are in the bank, the bank can stop them from being exchanged for dollars, fine, but like I said before they can and are buying up all the dollars.

Can someone explain that 4% vs. 20% discrepency? I can't get my head around it.

[TACOshake]

A civilian population becomes significantly easier to control once you stop worrying about things like Rules of Engagement and human rights.

If Russia occupies Ukraine they will literally beat the population until they are to numb to resist.

Russia has demonstrated their brutalism against Chechens and Syrians, and people were able to ignore it. Can they sustain brutalizing more white appearing Ukrainians?


As Strawberry demonstrated for us. Much of Putin's support hinges on the myths White Supremacists tell themselves. Brutalizing too many blonde Ukrainians will break with the mythology the Alt-Right Slavic ideology. That would erode one of his main pillars of authority.

[Uzkin]

You might not care, but I can guarantee you Ukraine will in their considerations for what "safety guarantee" means.

"safety is guaranteed" for Ukraine should be read as them asking for NATO membership and a hastened path into the EU, not just getting some vague words on paper from Russia that they'll behave. If Ukraine survives this as an independent state we're far beyond that now.

Once again, in my scenario UA does *not* have to believe Russia's word. They'd only have to believe in NATO's commitment to Article 5 (or China's commitment to preserving peace in UA, if we go by the alternative option (2')).

[Shadowferal]

Five reasons 'puffy-faced' Putin could be seriously ill

[Omians]

[DarkAmbient]

Absolute torrent of bullshit flowing out of that Russian representative's mouth. Imagine having the gall to complain that recently released criminals have been given weapons for the defence of the country you're invading.

[Voidwielder]

How do we bully Blizzard to shut down services in Russia? I cba dealing with Russians in this M+ season.

[TACOshake]

How do we bully Blizzard to shut down services in Russia? I cba dealing with Russians in this M+ season.

Blizzard has given you plenty of reasons to boycott them in the last year. But that would be admitting that the SJWs were right all along.


As Ukrainians are currently demonstrating, dont expect other to do your activism for you.

[George]

Five reasons 'puffy-faced' Putin could be seriously ill

The article is behind a paywall.

- - - Updated - - -

How do we bully Blizzard to shut down services in Russia? I cba dealing with Russians in this M+ season.

Imagine the price of the EU WoW token if that would happen

[wunksta]

The article is behind a paywall.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220301...asion-illness/

[Breccia]

Five reasons 'puffy-faced' Putin could be seriously ill

Could Putin be the ruler of Russia for half-life?

(clicks article)

Fucking paywall! Found a mirror site.

1. Putin’s appearance
The Russian president has appeared notably more bloated around the face and neck recently.

That has led to suggestions he may be undergoing treatment with steroids.

Side effects of steroids include increased risk of infection, like coughs and colds, and “mood and behavioural changes.”

“Sometimes, when taken in higher doses, steroids can cause confusion or changes in thinking,” according to Macmillan Cancer Support. “This can include having strange or frightening thoughts.”

In November 2020 Putin suffered an extended coughing fit during a televised meeting with his finance minister. The footage was later edited and the Kremlin said he was “absolutely fine.”

According to Fiona Hill, the British former senior White House expert on Russia, Putin is “not looking so great” at the moment.

Hill, who has met Putin more than once, said: “He’s been rather puffy-faced. We know that he has complained about having back issues. Even if it’s not something worse than that, it could be that he’s taking high doses of steroids, or there may be something else.

“There seems to be an urgency for this (invasion) that may be also driven by personal factors.”

2. The Long Tables
People with weakened immune systems are at higher risk of contracting severe cases of coronavirus, and other infections.

That would include those taking immune-suppressing drugs.

There has been much speculation about why Putin has engaged in such extreme social distancing.

Emmanuel Macron was forced to sit at the other end of a 13ft table.

During a televised meeting Putin’s own foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was also seated at the other end of an absurdly long table.

And at a meeting where he humiliated his spy chief Putin’s top security officials all had to sit at the other side of a giant marble chamber.

COVID cases have soared in Russia recently, but the extraordinary efforts to keep Putin in a “bubble” go back many months.

Many of those entering his presence have been forced to quarantine in hotels for two weeks beforehand, including business leaders, politicians and staff.

"Comrade, have you seen Citizen Kane?"
"No, why do you ask?"
"No reason."

There have also been reports of a tunnel leading to his office in which visitors are sprayed with disinfectant.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden, who is a decade older, has been huddling around a relatively small table in the Situation Room elbow-to-elbow with his advisers.

Putin, 69, says he has taken the Sputnik vaccine, but it was not filmed.

His extreme measures to avoid the virus would make sense if he had an underlying condition.

But bizarrely, he did shake hands with – and sit right next to – an unvaccinated Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro a few weeks ago.

3. The Intelligence
Marco Rubio, the Republican senator, set a hare running at the weekend when he suggested “something is off” with Putin.

Rubio is no random internet conspiracy theorist, he is the senior Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

As such, he sees classified intelligence, which he can’t talk about.

However, he is at liberty to drop hints. And he has.

Rubio said: “I wish I could share more, but for now, I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with Putin.

“He has always been a killer, but his problem now is different and significant.”

Rubio later expanded that Putin “appears to have some neuro/physiological health issues.”

He did not give details on what was informing his opinion.

There are growing suggestions that if the U.S. does have intelligence that Putin is sick, they should release it.

A former White House national security official told the Telegraph the U.S. should “make it personal” and release anything it had on Putin.

The French may also have suspicions. The assessment of a French official, following Macron’s marathon meeting with Putin before the invasion, hinted at something.

The official was quoted as saying that Putin was “not the same” as when Macron met him two years earlier. He was more rigid and ideological and had, in some respects, “gone haywire”.

There has also still been no firm answer as to why Putin disappeared from public view for 10 days in 2015. Speculation about a health scare was dismissed at the time.

"Okay, but this is all circumstantial. He could just be a germaphobe working long hours who is rightly worried his closest allies might murder him."

4. Russian academic claims Putin has Parkinson’s disease and cancer

"Well, fuck."

In November 2020 Professor Valery Solovei, a former historian at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, was quoted as suggesting Putin may have Parkinson’s disease and cancer.

He also suggested that Putin may be poised to quit in 2021 due to fears for his health.

At the time Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “absolute nonsense” and “everything is fine with the president.”

Asked if Putin was planning to step down in the near future, Peskov said: “No.”

Prof Solovei resigned from the institute, where he was head of the public relations department, in 2019, saying “political pressure” was responsible for his departure.

He was later detained at an opposition protest in Moscow.

5. Putin’s accelerated timeline
In his mission to restore what he considers lost Russian land, Putin had previously taken a long view.

In 2008 he invaded Georgia in support of the self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Six years later, he annexed Crimea.

Under changes to the Russian constitution made in early 2021, he could remain president until 2036.

That would give him plenty of time for incremental land grabs, what the West might see as “minor incursions” punishable only with a slap on the wrist.

For those reasons many Putin watchers expected him to adopt “salami tactics,” taking Ukraine “slice by slice” over a period of time.

They have been left puzzled as to why he would take such a gamble on capturing the whole of Ukraine, a country of 44 million people, in one go with a force military experts say was not enough.

It only increases the suspicion that, perhaps, his health meant he was running out of time.

One of my favorite stories ever, regardless of medium, is "Three Stories" Season 1 Episode 13 of House. It's an amazing episode, I won't spoil, but...

It’s a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what. The weird thing about telling someone they’re dying is it tends to focus their priorities. You find out what matters to them. What they’re willing to die for. What they’re willing to lie for.

(That's not even the good part, no really, watch that episode)

It is completely believable that, despite how murderously evil Putin is, wanting to return to the Soviet Union and having 20+ years of that not happening, might have put "at least get one country back" in his bucket list, if he was told he had a finite amount of time to do it. Do I think he's sick and/or dying? I mean...no, but I haven't exactly seen the guy in person. I'm just going by "he's too rich to get sick and die". Look at the Queen, for crying out loud. But I am saying, if I was told he was sick and/or dying, I would look at this evidence and say "yeah, that tracks".

I imagine most people don't have "murder thousands of neighboring civilians" in their bucket list. Hell, I'm a vindictive asshole and I only have two, you've never heard of one and the other is whoever green-lit Caramel Apple Oreos on supermarket shelves. But then, I'm not a murdering dictator who arrests or murders people who call him a murdering dictator. Putin has a different moral compass, it points straight down of course, but he's still human and it's natural for him to want at least one more win before the clock runs out. Apparently, being given four years of catastrophic Trump policies with a side order of Syria wasn't enough.

---

What else we got? Oh, right, the Kremlin says the economy blows. Wait, they admitted that?

“Russia’s economy is experiencing serious blows,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with foreign journalists. “But there is a certain margin of safety, there is potential, there are some plans, work is underway.”

Wow. Okay, so they're doing the "everything will be fine" routine, I think we have a hatted dog and a house on fire meme for that.

Also in the article:

The Russian stock market was shuttered Monday and hasn’t reopened since. The central bank said it would remain closed Wednesday. The government has ordered exporters to exchange 80% of their foreign currency revenues for rubles, and banned Russian residents from making bank transfers outside the country.

Because those come with, say it with me, currency exchange. Which Russia wants to avoid like food poisoning.

[Omians]

141 for vs 5 against the Draft and 35 no votes thats alot of " knock it off over there"

[Elegiac]

In November 2020 Professor Valery Solovei, a former historian at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, was quoted as suggesting Putin may have Parkinson’s disease and cancer.

He also suggested that Putin may be poised to quit in 2021 due to fears for his health.

At the time Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “absolute nonsense” and “everything is fine with the president.”

Asked if Putin was planning to step down in the near future, Peskov said: “No.”

Prof Solovei resigned from the institute, where he was head of the public relations department, in 2019, saying “political pressure” was responsible for his departure.

He was later detained at an opposition protest in Moscow.

Hang on I have something for this:

[Breccia]

More from the article I just cited: Equinor and TotalEnergies join BP, Shell and ExxonMobil walking away. Also, Ford, Boeing, and Airbus.

Have we talked about Apple? We should talk about Apple.

All Apple products on the company’s online Russian storefront are listed as “unavailable” for purchase or delivery in the country. Apple doesn’t operate any physical Apple stores in Russia.

Apple also said on Tuesday that it has removed Russian state-controlled outlets RT News and Sputnik News from its App Store around the world except for Russia.

Apple has also shut down ApplePay in Russia, not that it matters, Russia basically outlawed it anyhow. Oh, and Apple shut down Apple Maps in Ukraine to help with the whole "take the road signs" down bit. Which is amazing.

[MCMLXXXII]

More from the article I just cited: Equinor and TotalEnergies join BP, Shell and ExxonMobil walking away. Also, Ford, Boeing, and Airbus.

Have we talked about Apple? We should talk about Apple.



Apple has also shut down ApplePay in Russia, not that it matters, Russia basically outlawed it anyhow. Oh, and Apple shut down Apple Maps in Ukraine to help with the whole "take the road signs" down bit. Which is amazing.

Tbh who uses Apple maps anyway? Google maps is superior. But good show, cripple them.

[Breccia]

Tbh who uses Apple maps anyway? Google maps is superior. But good show, cripple them.

I don't know if Google did the same or not. Hold on.

(checks news)

I think they did the same thing.

[TACOshake]

Five reasons 'puffy-faced' Putin could be seriously ill

We had like 2 threads about this in Nov 2020.
No.!1 MMOC-Putinbot went bluescreen in one.

Those were some hilarious hijinks!

[Draco-Onis]

Can someone explain that 4% vs. 20% discrepency? I can't get my head around it.

They are trying to stop people from taking rubbles out of their account, Russia is currently experiencing bank runs.

[Omians]

https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2022/...tured-soldiers

Edit: Ukraine invites Russian mothers to fetch captured soldiers


leave the scolding to their mothers.

[Voidwielder]

https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1499059624250646538