Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Russia is NOT targeting civilians, but when you bomb something, innocent people tend to die.
It sucks, but I repeat, Russia is NOT targeting civilians at all.

Yeah, this post didn't age well at all.

[D3thray]

It's been so outrageously incompetent at the most basic levels that I think it's pretty damned clear the Russian military is just a mismanaged shell. In particular, see all the inane clownshoes trolls who insist that Russia's "real strength" is being held back, as if Russia deliberately sent in incompetents to fight the war wrong as a joke. Sure, if you have an elite company, you hold them back until needed, but they're not an army.

The obvious reality is that this is the best the Russians can manage. Fucking around with tech that's out of date and falling apart and crewed by children and conscripts who really just don't wanna be there. All this Ukraine venture has proven is precisely how translucently thin the paper tiger that is the Russian military actually is.

Sure, they're doing damage to Ukraine, and that's tragic. They've been puffing up like they're a serious global power, though, and that's obviously not been the case for at least a decade or more, to have gotten this bad.

Even paper can cut though. We shouldn’t underestimate any country with thousands of nukes.

[Fugus]

At this point I should wonder if those nukes aren't much better that old cold war leftover rusty firecrackers.

With those being the only REAL deterrents Russia has left at this point, to have them useless would be beyond stupid for them.

[Mihalik]

There's little else that can be done, though, other than outright invasion, which is even worse.

Even if sanctions won't bring about regime change, they do tend to defang the threat, or at least vastly slow down its capacity to build that threat.

Oh no, the sanctions have to be kept up to defang the Russians from any further empire building ambitions. They can either become a massive North Korea or they can actually implement reforms and abandon any further geopolitical ambitions.

[Fugus]

Back when Skroe was around, he was already talking about how the Russian nuclear program was just slowly rusting in place and generally falling in uselessness and disrepair.

And that was years ago.

Yeah, and while I disagreed with many of his policies, his technical knowledge was great. I remember saying that if I were to become president, I would have him in my administration if I could. While we would butt heads constantly on policy, his knowledge would be invaluable.

[Poopymonster]

https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2022/...tured-soldiers

Edit: Ukraine invites Russian mothers to fetch captured soldiers


leave the scolding to their mothers.

Everytime I read something that Ukraine is doing, it impresses the shit out of me. Knowing you're going to die, still fucking with Russia. Russia lost to Technodoor. Russia loses mechanized units to Poor Fuel Economy and Mud. Ukraine probably will lose in the end, but goddamn did they take Russia down with them on the world stage.

Now they bring the soldiers mothers into it, releasing them into their mothers care if they come get them.
"Igor, your babushka is here. You may go."
Comrade, but what about me?
"Vyachalslav, where is your mother?"
She was arrested for protesting this war and currently in pris.....oh.
"When you are free, remember who the Baddies were."

You'll notice, there have been few if any stealth maneuvers by the Ukraine people. You can hear their giant brass balls a mile away.

[Endus]

Even paper can cut though. We shouldn’t underestimate any country with thousands of nukes.

We literally just have their word for that.

And sure; they could launch some missiles, probably. Would they actually get to their targets, past modern defense systems? Could they resist the global military backlash against the first country to use nuclear weapons since the Americans first made that mistake?

Russia has the capacity to cause tragedy. As they are in Ukraine. I'm positing they do not really have any capacity to act as a serious global power or pose any existential threat to the developed world.

[Poopymonster]

I legit wonder, how do the Putinistas imagine the end of all this?

How do they plan to rule over 40 something million people who absolutely fucking despise them? How do they plan to have anything resembling an economy in a world that has clearly told them that they will do whatever the fuck it takes to completely ruin them economically?

What's the outcome they are imagining here?

Probably by turning 40 million into 20 million if they don't fall in.

- - - Updated - - -

Russia's economy is so shit, it has the runs.

Oh god, why did I type that in public

But seriously thank you, that's either right or close enough.

Good news, paper rubles can be used as toilet paper. The real thing is more expensive.

[Endus]

With those being the only REAL deterrents Russia has left at this point, to have them useless would be beyond stupid for them.

About as stupid as having tanks run out of gas because you didn't think about how to resupply them once deployed?
About as stupid as sending local conscripts in to fight civilians they sympathize with, leading to practically immediate morale collapse and subsequent surrenders and mutinies?

Russia's already proven that they're really fuckin' stupid when it comes to their military, dude.

[Kathandira]

Forgive me for not reading all the back and forth over the past few pages. But what is the current status here? I'm having a hard time getting a clear picture of whether Ukraine is keeping back the invasion, or if the invasion is pushing forward.

[PC2]

Even paper can cut though. We shouldn’t underestimate any country with thousands of nukes.

Nah people are estimating Russia correctly. Constant fear of nukes just leads to societal paralysis where we do nothing, which then emboldens Russia further.

[Rasulis]

China will sit out the sanction against Russia. However, there is probably not much that China could do to help Russia.

Didi ride hailing companies stopped services in Russia. It got a lot of flak on the Chinese internet and reversed course. However, that does nothing about the problem with payment. Without access to SWIFT, MC and VISA, their payment options are limited. Actually, for now, there is no option. Which was why they stopped providing service in Russia.

Lenovo suspended all shipments to Russia. It also received a lot of flak. However, Lenovo does not have a lot of options. All of their computers use AMD or Intel chips.

China could always use more LNG. Except the LNG pipeline between Russia and China is already operating at full capacity. Even if they started construction right at this moment, it would take at least 3 - 5 years before a new pipeline become operational.

The sea lanes are screwed hard. The overland pipeline capacity is limited to a few rail routes.

At least against this sanction, there is not much that China could do to economically assist Russia.

[D3thray]

We literally just have their word for that.

And sure; they could launch some missiles, probably. Would they actually get to their targets, past modern defense systems? Could they resist the global military backlash against the first country to use nuclear weapons since the Americans first made that mistake?

Russia has the capacity to cause tragedy. As they are in Ukraine. I'm positing they do not really have any capacity to act as a serious global power or pose any existential threat to the developed world.

Just saying, that’s the kind of thing you want to verify before any kind of military action. The nukes developed during the Cold War were not the relatively tame (by comparison) affairs of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs.

[Poopymonster]

Back when Skroe was around, he was already talking about how the Russian nuclear program was just slowly rusting in place and generally falling in uselessness and disrepair.

And that was years ago.

Shit. I'd love to have heard his take on this energetic russo-slavic clusterfuck.

[Endus]

Just saying, that’s the kind of thing you want to verify before any kind of military action. The nukes developed during the Cold War were not the relatively tame (by comparison) affairs of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs.

Military action into Russia? Sure. But I never suggested anything of the sort, and in fact, condemned the idea.

Military action to kick Russia out of Ukraine? If Putin's gonna launch nukes in retaliation for that, then the only acceptable response from the developed powers is figuring out the fastest goddamned way to kill Putin and whatever leadership might agree with him on that point. Because that's a madman looking for an excuse to commit mass genocide, and it's a question of "when", not "if", so the only reasonable response is to be proactive and hope you can take him out before he finds that "when".

Also, Russia isn't remotely the only nuclear power. Nuclear attacks will almost certainly be responded to with a nuclear response. And again, given the incompetence on display, I seriously doubt Russia's defense systems will have any real efficacy.

I don't think Putin's actually that insane. If he is, though, that's a reason for much stronger and rapid military action deep into Russia itself, not an argument that Putin's demands should be obeyed.

[Makabreska]

With those being the only REAL deterrents Russia has left at this point, to have them useless would be beyond stupid for them.

I mean, if we see em flying then it is game over for world so they most likely would never be challenged enough to pop em.

[Voidwielder]

Forgive me for not reading all the back and forth over the past few pages. But what is the current status here? I'm having a hard time getting a clear picture of whether Ukraine is keeping back the invasion, or if the invasion is pushing forward.

Slowly losing ground but those are remote villages and settlements.

The thing to watch out for is the line between Kharkiv and Mariupol - a dash of Russian forces in a line could cut away thousands of Ukrainian troops from retreat.

[PhaelixWW]

Slowly losing ground but those are remote villages and settlements.

The thing to watch out for is the line between Kharkiv and Mariupol - a dash of Russian forces in a line could cut away thousands of Ukrainian troops from retreat.

I mean, recent experience has made the idea of "a dash of Russian forces in a line" difficult to fathom.

[Breccia]

However, there is probably not much that China could do to help Russia.

China's interest in all of this, is China. As smarter posters than me have already pointed out, China is in a strong position to exploit the hell out of the situation and effectively extort them for more favorable prices and deals. As an example, what if China said "Wheat is selling for $3.76US a bushel. We'll buy Russian wheat for $3.50 a bushel. If you refuse, we'll just buy American wheat." That discussion could literally be happening right now, as they lifted wheat caps a week ago. I doubt they did so for nothing in return. That drop? That's a hundred million dollars. They do it across the board? $10 to $15 billion. And that wasn't even ten percent. China could easily ask for a steeper cut, if they wanted to.

[Zemini7]

The same nukes that have likely been rotting in their silos for 50 years. If they're as poorly-managed as this invasion force has been, that nuclear stockpile probably poses a greater threat to Russia than to their enemies.

Warheads need lots of maintenance and that costs millions per year per warhead apparently. With 6k, that adds up to billions of dollars that Russia just doesn't have. I bet a few are still fully operational but based on what we see in Ukraine, they will probably blow themselves up first.