Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

141 for vs 5 against the Draft and 35 no votes thats alot of " knock it off over there"

The UN vote, in case people were wondering. The other four were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. Belarus and Syria are effectively Russian puppets anyhow. NK is just trolling. Can't be sure what Eritrea is doing in this.

[Rasulis]

China's interest in all of this, is China. As smarter posters than me have already pointed out, China is in a strong position to exploit the hell out of the situation and effectively extort them for more favorable prices and deals. As an example, what if China said "Wheat is selling for $3.76US a bushel. We'll buy Russian wheat for $3.50 a bushel. If you refuse, we'll just buy American wheat." That discussion could literally be happening right now, as they lifted wheat caps a week ago. I doubt they did so for nothing in return. That drop? That's a hundred million dollars. They do it across the board? $10 to $15 billion. And that wasn't even ten percent. China could easily ask for a steeper cut, if they wanted to.

I am sure they are doing exactly what you described. The problem at the moment is the delivery pipelines. Which are very limited. Overland routes through Siberia and Central Asia are highly inefficient and expensive. The sea lanes are almost 100% blocked. Not even the Chinese carriers and tankers are willing to buck the sanction.

US+EU+Japan+South korea+Autralia+Taiwan market >>>>>>>>>>>>> Russia market.

[snebb]

Slowly losing ground but those are remote villages and settlements.

The thing to watch out for is the line between Kharkiv and Mariupol - a dash of Russian forces in a line could cut away thousands of Ukrainian troops from retreat.

That be possible for a relatively organized and well supplied army. Everything Russia is so far proving they aren't.
If they did try, I can imagine there would be big gaps or spread too thin to prevent Ukrainian forces from breaking through a small section.

Incoming 'copium' comments

[Kathranis]

I try to remain optimistic about Ukraine, but I feel like some people in this thread are a bit naïve, so pardon some cynicism.

Russia has irreversibly damaged their reputation as a military super power. Every day there are new embarrassments. Even assuming that some of it is Ukrainian propaganda, Russia has lost the propaganda war in outrageous fashion. They have put themselves in a lose-lose-lose situation. Short of committing genocide, I don't see how they can stably hold Ukraine even if they capture it; a Western-backed insurgency is inevitable at this point. The Ukrainians have shown time and again that they're willing to stand and fight. If Russia tries to hold Ukraine, they're gonna be stuck in a quagmire that they can't afford, especially with ongoing sanctions. It'll make Afghanistan look like a victory by comparison.

At the same time, they still kind of hold all the cards. The metaphorical nuclear option of disregarding civilian safety, and the literal nuclear option of, well, nukes.

NATO isn't going to directly intervene. No NATO nations will. Doing so is tantamount to starting WW3, and perhaps nuclear Armageddon. So while sanctions, blockades, and a steady influx of materiel can be maintained for as long as this conflict lasts, it's not a fight that can be won. Ukraine will not repel the Russian military.

The only good solution at this point, as I've said before, is through diplomacy and negotiation. The sooner the better, because no matter how long Ukraine holds out, their position will only deteriorate. And Russia is going to require a lot of concessions from Ukraine if they're to emerge from this with the ability to posture that they've achieved some level of victory.

A ceasefire negotiation, with a full withdrawal of Russian forces by the end of March, in exchange for, say, the demilitarization of the Ukrainian border and the official dissolution and disavowal of the Azov Battalion, would probably be a good starting point. Oh, and Russia will probably accept nothing less than Ukraine ceasing all negotiations to join NATO.

That allows Putin to claim that his primary objectives have been achieved, and though an obvious farce, he can save face and pretend like it was the might of the Russian military that made it possible rather than the effects a prolonged military conflict and international sanctions would have on his economy.

Of course, this isn't the most desirable of outcomes. It weakens Ukraine's border and opens up the possibility of a more-prepared Russia trying again in the future. And potentially disseminates a bunch of neo-Nazis into the Ukrainian military and regional paramilitary groups, possibly armed with shiny new Javelins and NLAWs.

But something along those lines would certainly be better than the alternatives of genocide, brutal occupation, or WW3.

[Magnagarde]

Slowly losing ground but those are remote villages and settlements.

The thing to watch out for is the line between Kharkiv and Mariupol - a dash of Russian forces in a line could cut away thousands of Ukrainian troops from retreat.

They've created a salient effective as of last night North of Mariupol, with Mariupol encircled further South.

[Voidism]

Swedish air space was just violated by 4 Russian fighter jets.

Google translated from the Swedish Public Service website live report on the war effort on svt.se

"Russian fighter jet has violated Swedish airspace
Four Russian fighter jets have violated Swedish airspace, the Swedish Armed Forces writes on its website.

The Air Force carried out an operation with Jas 39 Gripen out of the emergency preparedness and documented the incident, in the form of photography.

- This shows that our preparedness is good. We were on site to secure territorial integrity and Sweden's borders. We have full control of the situation, says Air Force Chief Carl-Johan Edström.

Two Russian SU 27s and two Russian SU 24s violated Swedish airspace. The violation was short-lived and took place east of Gotland, across the sea.

- In light of the current situation, we take the incident very seriously. It is an unprofessional and irresponsible action on the part of Russia, says the air force chief.

Russian fighter jets have on several previous occasions violated Swedish airspace. The vast majority of violations occur involuntarily. Between 2016-2018, for example, it happened between 10-20 times a year.

"The Russian violation of Swedish airspace is of course completely unacceptable. It will lead to a clear diplomatic marking from the Swedish side. Swedish sovereignty and territory must always be respected," writes Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist (S) in a text message to TT.

He continues:

"The Russian action is to be regarded as unprofessional. Today's security policy situation means that what happened must be regarded as very serious.""

[Shrouded]

Swedish air space was just violated by 4 Russian jets.

They've done that sort of thing for years, probably over a decade. Not saying it's not serious, but it's been done repeatedly and deliberately for a long time, and they've made no apologies about it. It's just the sort of thing they do, poke at their neighbors to remind everyone that they're there and that they don't really care about the rules.

[Voidwielder]

Just shoot one down.

Turks did it and got away with it.

[Voidism]

They've done that sort of thing for years, probably over a decade. Not saying it's not serious, but it's been done repeatedly and deliberately for a long time, and they've made no apologies about it. It's just the sort of thing they do, poke at their neighbors to remind everyone that they're there and that don't really care about the rules.

Sure, but why are they not down in Ukraine fighting? Why 4 of them and right now it's looking pretty damn bad with current events.

In fact, I haven't seen much of the Russian air force in Ukraine. Where are they? (apart from the 4 here)

[Kathranis]

Is Putin trying to drive them into NATO, now? Does he want to fight a war on multiple fronts? Honestly, I don't see the logic in this sort of posturing.

[Shrouded]

Sure, but why are they not down in Ukraine fighting? Why 4 of them and right now it's looking pretty damn bad with current events.

In fact, I haven't seen much of the Russian air force in Ukraine. Where are they? (apart from the 4 here)

I won't pretend to know what's going on in Putin's head, but I'm not particularily worried about this particular incursion, at least. My guess is that it's another in the long line of not-so-subtle threats, but nothing more than that. At least for now - and who knows, I never thought they'd go this far with Ukraine, after all.

[Poopymonster]

I know it's fake, but hilarious.

[Mamushi]

Is Putin trying to drive them into NATO, now? Does he want to fight a war on multiple fronts? Honestly, I don't see the logic in this sort of posturing.

According to the latest polls here for the first time in history more than 50% of people here support NATO application (https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202) and around 80% of the people consider Russia to be a threat (https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12339646).

Additionally there are already two "citizen's initiatives" (basically a petition signed by registered voters to force the government to choose either to enact a law or hold a public vote) for NATO membership appliation signed by more than 50k citizens in less than a week now.

The air space violation might also have something to do with the joint military drills in Gotland today by Finland and Sweden (https://yle.fi/news/3-12340648)

[Mihalik]

I know it's fake, but hilarious.

Finders keepers.

[ati87]

There is no loss Putin will tolerate. There are 3 ways this ends: 1) for the price of some fines, Putin turns Ukraine into a smoldering ruin and installs Yanukovych; 2) sometime after he destroys Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, the West finally (?) gets involved and there are even more catastrophic losses; 3) Putin dies.

And 1 and 2 still means a gorilla war for the foreseeable future and millions of people losing there homes.
There is no scenario with Russia winning right now is the lesser of two evils.

Also at this point Russia is the loser anyway, most people assumed that the Russian military was a joke and this conflict kind of proves this.

[Tyris Flare]

The same nukes that have likely been rotting in their silos for 50 years. If they're as poorly-managed as this invasion force has been, that nuclear stockpile probably poses a greater threat to Russia than to their enemies.

The US ones are not much different. We're in the age of decaying Empires who can't affect change in the world but still have the capacity to destroy it.

That said, it's one hell of a gamble if you are wrong. Escalation talk does not really seem productive.

[Fugus]

About as stupid as having tanks run out of gas because you didn't think about how to resupply them once deployed?
About as stupid as sending local conscripts in to fight civilians they sympathize with, leading to practically immediate morale collapse and subsequent surrenders and mutinies?

Russia's already proven that they're really fuckin' stupid when it comes to their military, dude.

True, but they were deluded enough to assume that they would be in and done within 48 hours to at least justify that level of stupidity. To literally let their last line of defense and the only thing making the world even care about them slip. That's a screw up of a proportion I can't even fully imagine, especially with what those things can do if neglected to the surroundings.

[Khaza-R]

The UN vote, in case people were wondering. The other four were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. Belarus and Syria are effectively Russian puppets anyhow. NK is just trolling. Can't be sure what Eritrea is doing in this.

Aside from a long history with Russia and China, everyone on that list is currently under strict sanctions from the US and its allies.

[Slant]

Putin has done a good job dispelling the myth if power surrounding Russia and highlighting it as nothing but a failed nation-state grasping on to the last shred of influence its predecessor had.

I mean, it was only a myth to the most die-hard Putinistas to be fair. I've said for years that it's all bullshit.

- - - Updated - - -

Even paper can cut though. We shouldn’t underestimate any country with thousands of nukes.

No. Never underestimate. But right now is the time when you are allowed to scratch your head and ask "And we've been scared of that? They're a joke..."

- - - Updated - - -

Everytime I read something that Ukraine is doing, it impresses the shit out of me. Knowing you're going to die, still fucking with Russia. Russia lost to Technodoor. Russia loses mechanized units to Poor Fuel Economy and Mud. Ukraine probably will lose in the end, but goddamn did they take Russia down with them on the world stage.

Now they bring the soldiers mothers into it, releasing them into their mothers care if they come get them.
"Igor, your babushka is here. You may go."
Comrade, but what about me?
"Vyachalslav, where is your mother?"
She was arrested for protesting this war and currently in pris.....oh.
"When you are free, remember who the Baddies were."

You'll notice, there have been few if any stealth maneuvers by the Ukraine people. You can hear their giant brass balls a mile away.

If you are on the right side of history, you tend to not have to sneak around about your intentions. If Ukrainians manage to remain professional and decent about all of this, they could do much more damage to Russia's leadership than if they were dicks about it and executed Russian prisoners. Asking their mothers to fetch them... that's deviously genius.

[snebb]

Reports of a Romanian MiG-21 falling off radar over the black sea. Things happen, these planes are old tech and not out of the question for one to break down.
Follow-up reports however that contact has also been lost with the the helicopter sent on a rescue mission.

No confirmation of the causes yet, bad weather suspected, but yikesss