Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

Reports of a Romanian MiG-21 falling off radar over the black sea. Things happen, these planes are old tech and not out of the question for one to break down.
Follow-up reports however that contact has also been lost with the the helicopter sent on a rescue mission.

No confirmation of the causes yet, but yikesss

From one of the threads in the comments - https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...16066194264066

Seems like bad accidents due to weather conditions, let's hope that's the case (though still sad either way)

[Slant]

Reports of a Romanian MiG-21 falling off radar over the black sea. Things happen, these planes are old tech and not out of the question for one to break down.
Follow-up reports however that contact has also been lost with the the helicopter sent on a rescue mission.

No confirmation of the causes yet, bad weather suspected, but yikesss

Weren't 21s supposed to be these super reliable jets that still work wonderfully? I doubt Russia would intentionally pick a fight with NATO. Probably just comms problems what with all the jamming going on in the area.

[Fugus]

@Kathranis

If Russia would start WW3 over NATO helping kick them out over this, then WW3 is already a forgone conclusion as the question is no longer IF but WHEN as they have already let slip what they want and they even had a map leak of their next target by the looks of it.

And Ukraine demilitarizing isn't on the table as the whole reason they are in this is because they already denuclearized in the past on the promise that RUSSIA RESPECT ITS BORDERS. So given what Russia has already let slip and their history, their word is worth less than my used toilet paper and them "Backing off" wouldn't really be that but more a case of them letting the heat die down and regrouping before their next push.

And while Russia letting nukes off would result in them being wiped off the map and most of their nukes likely wouldn't get too far given all the attention the world is giving them now and the apparent state of disrepair their entire military seems to be in.

So, the worlds options are quickly panning out to be.

1) Stop Russia now and risk WW3 with a weakened Russia against the world or...
2) Let Russia continue it because we're afraid only to be stuck right here again within a few years with Russia having more land and influence when they do it, rinse, repeat.

And I say this as someone living near the biggest military base on America's east coast. If we go to a nuclear war, I won't live too long.

[Flarelaine]

The craziest part is that, without Russia fucking off back home and abandoning all claims on Ukraine wholesale and without any compromise or compensation for doing so, just a complete "we fucking lost" and turn tail and flee, those sanctions aren't ever going away. Nobody needs Russia that badly. If Russia decides to stick it out, they'll have decades of insurgency they need to spend billions keeping suppressed and managed, combined with a permanent exclusion from the global marketplace choking them off.

Hell, this would be an ideal time to apply even greater pressure, and demand they also give back Crimea, and sign a treaty agreement barring any further expansionism wholesale (yes, they'd possibly violate it, but violating such a clear treaty agreement would be such an obvious breach that it would justify swift response to punish them, more swift than it's been here, with direct military strikes).

You don't wanna sign? Sorry about your economy. We'll wait until your starving masses tear down your doors and drag the oligarchs (including Putin) into the streets and murder you. Should've played nice, fuckos.

Even if Russia does back off, and gives back Crimea, and signs off, we can discuss attenuating those sanctions over the next 10-15 years. The ones affecting the populace the most can be the first to be lifted, but the oligarchs should come out of this financially ruined and out of power.

I don't think we're at the point of dictating terms.

But if we were, I'd simply add recalling all Russian military personnel to within their internationally recognised borders.

Bye, Transnistria. Bye, Abkhazia. Bye, South Ossetia.

[Slant]

This ain't going to turn into WW3, I don't think. Too much history between Europe and Russia. Russia knows that. But what will happen apparently is for Russia to create the biggest drive for EU membership since the fall of the iron curtain. Ukraine, now Georgia... heck, soon we'll have everyone that's literally in Europe applied. Not sure if I'm a big fan of that, the last round of candidates are still not up to speed fully. Not sure we could handle Georgia. Not sure we would WANT to handle Georgia and Ukraine, given that they are in conflict with Russia. There's easier ways to invite problems into your house. One conditions for membership has got to be stable borders.

They cannot (!) use EU membership to settle their disputes. That would be a disservice to everyone involved.

[Breccia]

Aside from a long history with Russia and China, everyone on that list is currently under strict sanctions from the US and its allies.

Yeah, I went full American and flat-out admit I didn't even remember at first which coast that country was even on, let alone what they did. "Fuck with Ethiopia", apparently.

[alkyd]

British foreign ministry is starting to bully smaller ex-Soviet countries into determining their position on the Russia-Ukraine war or be sanctioned. That's very low of them. If they think that will make them friendlier to the West, I doubt that.

I think this is also happening to smaller countries around the world too.

[PhaelixWW]

British foreign ministry is starting to bully smaller ex-Soviet countries into determining their position on the Russia-Ukraine war or be sanctioned. That's very low of them. If they think that will make them friendlier to the West, I doubt that.

If those countries think that taking Russia's "side" in this war is going to do anything other than ostracize them from the West, then they're kidding themselves in the first place.

[Kaleredar]

British foreign ministry is starting to bully smaller ex-Soviet countries into determining their position on the Russia-Ukraine war or be sanctioned. That's very low of them. If they think that will make them friendlier to the West, I doubt that.

I think this is also happening to smaller countries around the world too.

You know what would make them very unfriendly to Russia?

Russia invading them. Ask Ukraine’s opinion on the matter.

[alkyd]

If those countries think that taking Russia's "side" in this war is going to do anything other than ostracize them from the West, then they're kidding themselves in the first place.

Well, this kind of bullying I would expect from autocratic countries like Russia or China, but not the West.

May be they just want to stay neutral and not take any sides? They are not EU after all, their economy is very dependent on Russia.

In the end, it's ordinary people who will suffer from sanctions. They are poor already, a lot poorer than people in EU. I don't know what the West is trying to accomplish here.

[Kaleredar]

This ain't going to turn into WW3, I don't think.

A world war would require Russia to have actual Allies outside of China’s “allegiance” of not sanctioning them and a few puppet countries.

World War One started because of a complicated series of alliances drawing numerous countries into conflict. World war 2 started because a small but vicious and militaristic group countries banded together to rapidly assault their neighbors.

This would be like if Hitler invaded Poland, got bogged down in a quagmire and then immediately destroyed Germany’s economy while Japan and Italy said “well I mean, we’re not really with him…”

[Shrouded]

The situation inside Russia is deteriorating as well - their council is set for an unscheduled meeting on Friday which analysts suspect will be about introducing martial law, on top of the proposed 15-years-in-prison-for-spreading-"disinformation"-about-military-conflicts law.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...0851056ae562c3

[PhaelixWW]

May be they just want to stay neutral and not take any sides? They are not EU after all, their economy is very dependent on Russia.

Who says they're not allowed to stay neutral?

You haven't even posted a source for your statement. Maybe do that first.

[Makabreska]

Wow shit! I hear EA removes all Russian teams from FIFA!

[wunksta]

The only ex-soviet countries that abstained were Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

[Specialka]

Georgia is asking to join the EU. I guess Vlad's plan really backfired.

[PhaelixWW]

Well, this kind of bullying I would expect from autocratic countries like Russia or China, but not the West.

The only thing I can find is a call from a single MP in the UK, and it's in regards to "supporting Putin".

Margaret Hodge was already calling for sanctions against Kazakhstan for other reasons prior to this, anyway.

I don't see how you've translated this into British Foreign Ministry policy.

This seems like a bullshit claim.

[Omians]

Wow shit! I hear EA removes all Russian teams from FIFA!

Huh that has a different feel to it then just banning Athletes and competitions

[Poopymonster]

Huh that has a different feel to it then just banning Athletes and competitions

Next year you can get them as DLC. For a cost of.....Eleventy thousand rubles. Or $4.99 USD

[Omians]

Next year you can get them as DLC. For a cost of.....Eleventy thousand rubles. Or $4.99 USD

Funny enough that is something i can see EA doing.