Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Santti]

It is most certainly a thing and the only real thing.

For all his bluster and big balls declarations, Putin does not want to end up with Moscow glassed just as much as Biden does not want it for New York.

And most certainly not over Ukraine, for that matter.

Yeah, nobody is going to start nuking over Ukraine. And even if NATO were to start actively helping Ukraine, they'd leave plenty of outs for Russia.

[Easo]

Is MAD really a thing anymore? I remember Skroe talking about it, and he seemed quite convinced it's not really a thing anymore, in his long-ass essays he liked to make.

Yes, yes it is. USA, for example, clearly lacks enough interceptors as far as my armchair general understanding goes and most of the Europe is laughable in that regard. Russia, with all it's AA systems, are also unlikely to stop thousands of incoming warheads. No one can.

And Skroe? He had a point, but that point was heavily glazed with 'MURICA STR0NK, RUSKIES STUPID. Underestimation is harmful. Especially as we now saw that Russian missiles are precise enough.

If they take odessa ukraine will be landlocked essentially. That would be quite the concession if Russia says "ok we will stop now".



Fundamentally I do not think it is possible for either country to eliminate each other's capability with a nuclear attack which iirc was the gist of what he was saying.

Depending on how far you are willing to think about Putin's speech - Odessa is very, very important. Major port, mostly speaking Russian and - directly on the way to Transnistria - and I still wonder why no one is talking about that place... Except probably in Moldovian goverment where they are guaranteed to be shitting bricks right now.

I am not counting tactical nukes, so I would say both sides actually lack enough capability to destroy each other, as in, the country collapses. Not enough strategic warheads on "active duty". Again, armchairing.

[Gaidax]

Yeah, nobody is going to start nuking over Ukraine. And even if NATO were to start actively helping Ukraine, they'd leave plenty of outs for Russia.

Yes, heck even Ukraine still lets Russia to have an out option, that's why they don't bomb the fuck out of that infamous convoy.

That's why I still have some hopes for these talks, they might figure out a way out that will be mutually acceptable (given the reality).

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Depending on how far you are willing to think about Putin's speech - Odessa is very, very important. Major port, mostly speaking Russian and - directly on the way to Transnistria - and I still wonder why no one is talking about that place... Except probably in Moldovian goverment where they are guaranteed to be shitting bricks right now.

Oh I sure did a fair bit ago, especially because Odessa is where I was born and grew up.

That city is absolutely critical and would be a HUGE prize for Putin if he decides to push for it, which I am certain he did, because it's so obvious.

[PC2]

Well, we have to make a stand at some point. We are dealing with a real burning legion.

Naw there is no good reason to "make a stand". In modern times a society wins by being more economically adaptive and innovative than their opponent. By focusing more on constructive solutions rather than destructive solutions.

[JohnBrown1917]

Didnt someone once say, "WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones."

Only the greatest mind of our time.

""I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." ¬Einstein.

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Well, we have to make a stand at some point. We are dealing with a real burning legion.

Real life is not a video game.

I read now that Mariupol has no electricity, heat and fresh food...kinda sick and it's still winter.

[/quote]
So do parts of Gaza and large parts of Yemen, why suddenly act out against a far stronger state that actually has nukes and will lead to WWIII?

[Santti]

Well, we have to make a stand at some point. We are dealing with a real burning legion.

I read now that Mariupol has no electricity, heat and fresh food...kinda sick and it's still winter.

I'm not sure there is really anything that needs to be done. Nuclear weapons are mighty expensive, and Russia is getting poorer and poorer. They have a very large stockpile of nukes, but they are something they mostly inherited from the USSR. They are getting old and unreliable.

[Daymanmb]

Only the greatest mind of our time.

"Our" time? How old were you when Einstein was still alive?!

[JohnBrown1917]

"Our" time? How old were you when Einstein was still alive?!

Our time as in human time.

Then again, maybe the Neanderthals had an Einstein level genius, will we ever know?

[Gaidax]

I'm not sure there is really anything that needs to be done. Nuclear weapons are mighty expensive, and Russia is getting poorer and poorer. They have a very large stockpile of nukes, but they are something they mostly inherited from the USSR. They are getting old and unreliable.

OK, gotta stop you right there.

Nobody needs 5k operational and ready to go at will nukes, 100 will suffice just fine.

A big chunk of these 5k is the eventual "agreement trash" to dispose of and make an illusion of sacrifice towards the greater good and good will out of it.

Heck I dare say - even 10 operational nukes and delivery mechanisms spread around on a few subs is already a huge headache in any actual potential war scenario.

[Elegiac]

Yes, yes it is. USA, for example, clearly lacks enough interceptors as far as my armchair general understanding goes and most of the Europe is laughable in that regard. Russia, with all it's AA systems, are also unlikely to stop thousands of incoming warheads. No one can.

And Skroe? He had a point, but that point was heavily glazed with 'MURICA STR0NK, RUSKIES STUPID. Underestimation is harmful. Especially as we now saw that Russian missiles are precise enough.

The 'MURICA STR0NK part aside, it's very hard to dispute the assertion that Russian leadership is staffed with clowns considering how much of a circus this affair is proving to be.

I can't find the exact post but he did a fair compilation of sources to the effect that while platforms like Iskander and Kalibur are competitive with similar generation ones used by western armies, it's much more a function of them not having enough of them nor sufficient economic capacity to keep them nuclear-ready; to say nothing of the aging infrastructure supporting them (things like radar stations, AWACS platforms, etc). We've already seen recent fiascos in trying to update Russia's first strike capabilities in the form of Bulava being a piece of junk; doesn't inspire much confidence in their long range arsenal.

That said, you're correct in that there is still an unknown quantity which makes poking that particular hornet's nest dangerous; but beyond the nuclear option, there's a reason everyone has now stopped talking about columns of Russian tanks rolling across Germany since they can't seem to manage getting far into Ukraine and that's with air superiority.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5...in-ukraine-war

Interesting perspective from retired US General Petreus, who has experience combating insurgencies against foreign invaders. He doesn't think the chances that Putin/Russia can take, and more importantly hold Ukraine are very high.

[Celista]

He had a point, but that point was heavily glazed with 'MURICA STR0NK, RUSKIES STUPID. Underestimation is harmful. Especially as we now saw that Russian missiles are precise enough.

I agree about underestimating Russia. However, someone just linked me this Reddit post and I'm honestly shocked as to how disorganized Russian troops seem to be, as discussed here. Obviously taking these comments with a huge grain of salt but still.

https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/...n_unfantry_in/

[DarkTZeratul]

Our time as in human time.

That's not what that phrase means.

[Poopymonster]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5...in-ukraine-war

Interesting perspective from retired US General Petreus, who has experience combating insurgencies against foreign invaders. He doesn't think the chances that Putin/Russia can take, and more importantly hold Ukraine are very high.

They can take it at great cost. Holding it is is a whole nother story.

Coming soon, to an occupied Ukraine near you this holiday season...Revenge of Paddington!

[Elenos]

Well, we have to make a stand at some point.

Sure, eventually if Russia and maybe China decide to continue pushing their expansionistic plans we will be forced to take a stand that might bring us to the brink of nuclear warfare, if not outright war.

What I am about to say is going to sound terrible, but be certain that every Western leader is thinking and some are even saying it ( in more polite ways ).

That day is not today. We aren't going to take a stand that could result in nuclear war over Ukraine, because quite frankly it is not important for the West to risk World War 3 over a country that in the large scheme of things doesn't matter on the world stage except for it's grain exports, and the world will make due without them and/or buy them from Russia once they conquer Ukraine.

So is the West going to sit by and watch as Putin devours Ukraine. Bluntly speaking in the clearest of possible terms:

YES

NATO will not wage WW3 over Ukraine, clear as day. But we aren't sitting idly by: We are providing significant economic and military aid with enormous intelligence to Ukraine as we speak while accepting hundreds of thousands of refugees and preparing for millions more. NATO members are not going to get their people killed for Ukraine's war with Russia, and it is the Russian-Ukranian war, pray to God that it does not ever turn into the NATO-Russian War.

[Gaidax]

They can take it at great cost. Holding it is is a whole nother story.

Coming soon, to an occupied Ukraine near you this holiday season...Revenge of Paddington!

I think people need to realize that "holding" Ukraine is not necessarily the goal there.

Making it inadmissible to NATO and making an example out of it for other who may have similar aspirations is likely good enough for Putin.

[PhaelixWW]

"Our" time? How old were you when Einstein was still alive?!

On a side note, it's still funny to hear commercials use the phrase "space age materials", though it admittedly doesn't happen that often anymore.

I mean, the "space age" started 65 years ago (and Einstein just missed it). It's always been a bit of a surreal fact to me that we went from the Wright brothers to the space age in only 54 years; it's been an even longer gap since then.

[Elegiac]

So is the West going to sit by and watch as Putin devours Ukraine. Bluntly speaking in the clearest of possible terms:

YES

The level of economic sanction being applied is hardly "sitting by and watching". The strategy that has been decided on is making holding Ukraine too expensive by bleeding Russia dry in every other respect.

I know it doesn't jive with the narrative of Russian leadership being a bunch of masterminds who have planned every contingency and can't be hurt by anything short of total war, but the impacts are very real and likely to only get worse for them.

[Mihalik]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5...in-ukraine-war

Interesting perspective from retired US General Petreus, who has experience combating insurgencies against foreign invaders. He doesn't think the chances that Putin/Russia can take, and more importantly hold Ukraine are very high.

I absolutely refuse the give The Hill any traffic for any reason. Kim Iversen has been peddling every single fucking Tucker Carlson talking point. I consider Fox News to be a more reputable publication... at least they aren't pretending to be progressives.

[Draco-Onis]

I think people need to realize that "holding" Ukraine is not necessarily the goal there.

Making it inadmissible to NATO and making an example out of it for other who may have similar aspirations is likely good enough for Putin.

For that to work people have to have faith that Putin won't invade them, the whole I want to bring the USSR back from the dead thing killed that. Every nation that can join NATO is now batting down their doors trying to join or in the process of doing so quietly.