Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

OCSE has said one of their members was killed by Russian shelling of Kharkiv.

Putin's massive column (as opposed to his tiny member) north of Kyiv seems stalled for another day. Its been stuck there for a few days now, barely moving. Stuck out in the cold for days with nowhere but their vehicles to sleep, plagued by supply issues, lack of fuel, lack of food. No doubt they at least have some idea what is going on given lack fo anything much to do but talk. Morale has got to be suffering.

38 countries have now reported Russia to the ICC for war crimes.

[draynay]

Enforcing a no-fly zone means shooting down any Russian fighters that enter it, it's an absolute act of war.

Plenty aircraft got shot down during the cold war, WW3 wasn't triggered.

[Gorsameth]

People are scared it'll go nuke, WW3. So they won't push it. Which just invites Vladdy to to wave his cloaked nuclear penis around and beat other nearby countries with it.
The sanctions potentially will:
A:Remove the wealth of the top people destroying their reason to live.
B:Cause the general population so much shit* that they'll rise up and back the US installed freeberty loving government.
C:Cause said no reason to live rich people to overturn Vladdy begging for their Adidas tracksuits to be delivered for the love of borsch just one please we beg you.
D:Starve everybody if B won't kick in.

*Loss of basic necessities such as food, water, clothing, vodka. and loss of conveniences like cigarettes, fuel, cell phones.

Call his bluff. Given the current state of the military and it's hardware, a few groups should be able to get in and disrupt if not remove the a solid portion of the nuke threat. But that'd be bad publicity and "oh woe, the nukes will fly." As long as Putin is willing to use it as a threat, it's not "if" it's a "when".

Military action is expensive. The biggest effect from sanctions, and their destruction of Russia's economy, is to make it impossible for Russia to actually wage war. Simply by making them not able to afford it.

[Daymanmb]

Russia won't stop for no reason.

Well, there are plenty of reasons to stop right now, but I think you mean, "without getting what they want".. Russia needs to stop for there to be a ceasefire, because Ukraine doesnt seem keen on giving in. Though I can assure you, that if Russia did stop, Ukraine wouldnt follow them into Russia to keep fighting...

[Gaidax]

Bruh, we get it. RUSSIA STR0NK. You don't need to belabor the point ad nauseum especially when actual events do not support your narrative.

First of all, Russia is "stronk", that's why it can allow itself to munch on Ukraine with West pretty much folding on it. It's not some banana republic that you can just control with dollars.

Don't kid yourself if you think this level of sanctions will make Russia fold or collapse. That's a joke right there.

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I know I don't get it either. I talk to some people who think they are like invincible geniuses who can't be stopped. Even though most all of the evidence and data in the world suggests they are mediocre.

They have big scary guns and nobody really wants to gamble on that one. Quite simple really.

[Kaleredar]

A ceasefire.

This. There is a real risk that Russia will just spend the time to finally fully regroup and then just crushingly resume, but yes, Ukraine needs ceasefire ASAP.

...which I imagine amounts to "give Russia whatever they want and hope they play nice," no? Moreover, Russia's word is now dirt. Who's to say that begging Putin to ceasefire by letting them wholesale annex some chunk of the Ukraine wont just mean he comes back in a few years actually prepared and just takes the rest?

Let me phrase this in another way: How well did appeasement work with Hitler?

If sanctions... a year, five years, ten years, 20 years, however long, are needed to curtail Putin's silly ambitions of rebuilding a failed nation, then so be it. Russia is shooting themselves in the foot. Even if they take Ukraine in its totality by force, they're going to be facing sharp resistance the entire way and for years to come. NATO and the EU are now seeing a precipitous incline in applications, and I'm sure this whole debacle has only galvanized European countries in their desire to break away from any dependency they have on Russia.

Here's another thought: Russia thought they would sweep in, deal a lot of damage, and force some form of capitulation from Ukraine rather rapidly and easily. Maybe they were drinking their own koolaid and thought they might actually convince the world they were fighting Nazis or some bullshit, rather than everyone immediately catching on to what they were actually doing. Maybe the Russian leader's own malignant leadership and self-interest made them think the rest of the world would rather sit this one out. Maybe they believed their own military hype and thought they'd demolish any resistance and would be so scary that no other country would dare balk from them at risk of angering them. My point is... maybe they thought they would be easy.

And they were wrong. Russia has not been engaged in any serious military conflict in decades. Their leadership has become one of nepotistic, corrupt individuals promoted not on competence but on loyalty. Maybe they just fucked up, instead of them playing 15-dimensional chess. For a microcosm of that, look no further than the corrupt, nepotistic lap dog they propped up in the United States and how he failed utterly: Trump. We had tons of people saying he was playing the long game, that everything was going to his plan, that he was in control the whole time. That is clearly not the case.


Putin and his Kremlin cronies are not some omniscient kabal that's seen into four trillion alternate realities to know this is the exact line to take. The US, the most powerful military nation on earth, badly underestimated their engagements in the middle east. China, with its dictatorial-levels of control let a virus leak from their borders and infect the world, and have been facing ever-growing bubbles within their own economy that they can't seem to wrangle down. Countries and their leaders make mistakes.

[Daymanmb]

It's not some banana republic that you can just control with dollars.

If I didnt know any better and based my opinion solely on their military's effectiveness right now...

[Kaleredar]

Don't confuse kneejerk rhetoric and gestures with actual actions. That's a tad naïve.

Why wouldn't they join NATO or the EU?

Are you saying they'll be so scared of Russia that they'll turn expose their bellies like a dog in a hope to appease them, rather than... I dunno, basically picking up a gun and standing with dozens of other people holding guns?

I bet Russia was hoping that same thing.

[Elenos]

I agree about underestimating Russia. However, someone just linked me this Reddit post and I'm honestly shocked as to how disorganized Russian troops seem to be, as discussed here. Obviously taking these comments with a huge grain of salt but still.

https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/...n_unfantry_in/

As the equivalent of a military brat in a Eastern European Nation I can say some of the things that guy is saying are absolutely true, while others are greatly exaggerated or only viewed from the perspective of a low ranking member of the military.

The picture is a lot more complicated. Yes Russia has units that are likely that bad, but it has undertaken a significant drive to improve and has achieved that in many other units if not the majority of it's frontline units.

I think the big key takeway from that post is that he said that Russian commanders ended up filling the gaps with conscripts because the units they had deployed had ghost soldiers only existing on paper. That's very likely true, though exaggerated.

[Elegiac]

First of all, Russia is "stronk", that's why it can allow itself to munch on Ukraine with West pretty much folding on it. It's not some banana republic that you can just control with dollars.

You're right; it'd be fairer to call it a petrol republic that can be controlled with dollars and Taiwanese semiconductors.

It's beyond bonkers to suggest an economy nearly entirely reliant on raw material exports and digital money laundering can weather having those streams pared back to practically nothing. It's been less than a week and we're already seeing Russian leadership freak out as much as they're allowed to in public without catching a case of window poisoning.

I really think you're just functionally incapable of seeing the Russian government for what it is; a bunch of foolish old men whose chief qualifications are being good at toadying, and corruption as a sport.

[Gaidax]

...which I imagine amounts to "give Russia whatever they want and hope they play nice," no?

It sure feels nice to be tough guy when you're not the one coughing blood right now.

Bravado is one thing, reality is the other. Readiness of the armchair generals here to fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood kind of got old a few days ago already.

So yes, despite quite memey setbacks by Russia, all in all - they are the ones who have quite the power to dictate their terms in the talks. It's simply how it is, because as I said time and time again - stakes here are very uneven. West threatens Russia with $$, Russia threatens Ukraine with tens of thousands dead, millions displaced and cities shattered.

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Why wouldn't they join NATO or the EU?

Are you saying they'll be so scared of Russia that they'll turn expose their bellies like a dog in a hope to appease them, rather than... I dunno, basically picking up a gun and standing with dozens of other people holding guns?

I bet Russia was hoping that same thing.

Let me ask you other question - why would NATO or EU accept them with their own "people's republics" sitting right in their territories.

You must be thinking NATO is some charity organization - NATO's first priority is wellbeing of its members and they are quite not ready to involve themselves in that mess, as they very plainly stated time and again.

[Kaleredar]

It sure feels nice to be tough guy when you're not the one coughing blood right now.

Bravado is one thing, reality is the other. Readiness of the armchair generals here to fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood kind of got old a few days ago already.

So yes, despite quite memey setbacks by Russia, all in all - they are the ones who have quite the power to dictate their terms in the talks. It's simply how it is, because as I said time and time again - stakes here are very uneven. West threatens Russia with $$, Russia threatens Ukraine with tens of thousands dead, millions displaced and cities shattered.

And like I said... appeasement doesn't work. Chamberlain isn't looked too fondly on in history for a reason.

[Corvus]

The opinion of someone in the aviation sector - the Russian civil aviation sector has three weeks tops before its show over.

[Daymanmb]

armchair generals

About as effective as the Russian Generals No scratch that, Im sure an Armchair General wouldnt be so stupid as to send a 40km line of tanks..

[Elegiac]

Let me ask you other question - why would NATO or EU accept them with their own "people's republics" sitting right in their territories.

The risk of Balkanization didn't stop NATO from integrating, you know, the Balkans after the USSR collapsed.

[Easo]

Well, as I said, I think the truth about sanctions is somewhere in the middle between the opinions of Elegiac and Gaidax. And in the long term it can go either way, but which one? An important question we will not see an answer anytime soon, but years later.

If I didnt know any better and based my opinion solely on their military's effectiveness right now...

I am going to say - your opinion is based on memes, the insane internet hype and the Russia's failure of choosing the initial operational plan. Plus you do not understand the scale and you do not have the overall picture (none of us do). It is a 2000km long frontline, with penetrations hundreds of kilometers deep.

The risk of Balkanization didn't stop NATO from integrating, you know, the Balkans after the USSR collapsed.

Not all of them and only those without unresolved territorial/border issues. Slovenia, for example. Ukraine has to let go of Donbas for NATO, they clearly don't want to.

[Kaleredar]

Let me ask you other question - why would NATO or EU accept them with their own "people's republics" sitting right in their territories.

You must be thinking NATO is some charity organization - NATO's first priority is wellbeing of its members and they are quite not ready to involve themselves in that mess, as they very plainly stated time and again.

Putin tossing threats and Finland and Sweden didn't seem to scare them off, and as far as I can tell he hasn't proposed any "totally unassuming border training exercises" there yet. So they're not under any threat of war. NATO/the EU has no reason to go "thanks but no thanks, you have a preexisting condition."

[Celista]

Yeah, PILE of salt for that one.

Mhm, although the news we are getting fits in well with the narrative in the post. So far fighting has not gone well and bombings have been hitting the wrong buildings, etc.

I don't anticipate things staying this way, despite a love for a David vs Goliath story.

As the equivalent of a military brat in a Eastern European Nation I can say some of the things that guy is saying are absolutely true, while others are greatly exaggerated or only viewed from the perspective of a low ranking member of the military.

The picture is a lot more complicated. Yes Russia has units that are likely that bad, but it has undertaken a significant drive to improve and has achieved that in many other units if not the majority of it's frontline units.

I think the big key takeway from that post is that he said that Russian commanders ended up filling the gaps with conscripts because the units they had deployed had ghost soldiers only existing on paper. That's very likely true, though exaggerated.

That makes sense. Thanks.

[Elenos]

...which I imagine amounts to "give Russia whatever they want and hope they play nice," no? Moreover, Russia's word is now dirt. Who's to say that begging Putin to ceasefire by letting them wholesale annex some chunk of the Ukraine wont just mean he comes back in a few years actually prepared and just takes the rest?

It's give and take with negotiations if they are indeed real.

Personally I'd sooner expect the Death Star to be real then these talks to result in anything concrete.

But without a ceasefire Ukraine dies. It doesn't matter if they manage to hold some speck of land in the western Ukraine by the time this ends if tens of millions of Ukrainians are left destitute with their cities in ruins, their lives destroyed, their economy completely shattered and any hope for themselves and a good future eradicated.

That is going to be the consequence if these talks produce nothing, and I don't expect them to produce anything. Russia is holding back significant military assets. You DON'T want to see them drop of a FOAB on Kiev, you really really don't.

Because I assure you if Russia goes all in with their full conventional arsenal Hiroshima in 1945 would look like Geneva today in comparison to what Kiev will be like.

[Gaidax]

And like I said... appeasement doesn't work. Chamberlain isn't looked too fondly on in history for a reason.

Probably, but the stakes are not truly there yet and so far West prefers to ride it out without getting their hands dirty.