Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elegiac]

This is Ukraine

Yes, and I literally just pointed out Russia's historical treatment of Ukraine and their present opinion that Ukrainian national identity is an aberration that only exists because of the USSR's collapse making "feeding them and leaving them alone" not a likely outcome. Not sure why you think saying "it's Ukraine" refutes that.

Or maybe I'm wrong and the Kremlin is totally fine as long as their neighbors are demilitarized. Hey, why don't we resolve further international tensions by booting the Baltics out of NATO and giving you back to Russia? It's not like they won't feed you and leave you alone.

[Makabreska]

Yes, and I literally just pointed out Russia's historical treatment of Ukraine and their present opinion that Ukrainian national identity is an aberration that only exists because of the USSR's collapse making "feeding them and leaving them alone" not a likely outcome. Not sure why you think saying "it's Ukraine" refutes that.

something something Lenin biggest mistake something

[wunksta]

What is the long term effects in Russia from these events? Is there any likelihood that the political integrity within Russia will falter? Could we see new breakaway republics?

[Gaidax]

What is the long term effects in Russia from these events? Is there any likelihood that the political integrity within Russia will falter? Could we see new breakaway republics?

No.

What will happen is that Putin's tenure just got a few years shorter, but I highly doubt there will be another Chechnya.

[Mihalik]

This is Ukraine, it is different. No one is really going to touch Ukrainians and they are highly unlikely to actually go hungry. I have fears regarding militia from "republics", though. There will be excesses from them for sure.

They've been artificially starved by Russians once before to the point of several million deaths. So color them and me skeptical.

Historically the Baltics have gotten a much nicer and hands off treatment from the Kremlin than the Ukrainians.

[Draco-Onis]

What is the long term effects in Russia from these events? Is there any likelihood that the political integrity within Russia will falter? Could we see new breakaway republics?

There's no way to know since so many balls are in the air like how long will the sanctions hold, will there be secondary sanctions, how bad are the protest going to get and how Ukraine will play out in terms of insurgents.

- - - Updated - - -

This is Ukraine, it is different. No one is really going to touch Ukrainians and they are highly unlikely to actually go hungry. I have fears regarding militia from "republics", though. There will be excesses from them for sure.

With Russia's economy hurting badly and most likely blocking foreign aid I say starvation is all but guaranteed.

[PfeffermintShake]

something something Lenin biggest mistake something

Are we witnessing a form of Pop-Duginsim or ... Diet Duginsim?! Kinda like people that "I hate the Church", but sure love PS5s on Christmas.

"I hate the West" but love to video games and Disney.

[Daymanmb]

Since when do we count some general news journalist's editorial without any analysis and without any statistics a proof of something? You seem to be jumping around trying to find the "proof".

Lol that's not an editorial. Tanks have been destroyed by Ukrainians. I dont know why youre embarrassing yourself and clinging to:

They can't destroy the convoy because they have nothing to destroy it with.

Everyone knows youre wrong. If you dont know youre wrong, theres something wrong upstairs.

Shift the goal posts all you want, slam sources all you want, it doesnt change the fact that Ukraine is perfectly capable of taking out tanks.

[PC2]

Is there any likelihood that the political integrity within Russia will falter? Could we see new breakaway republics?

Probably not in a dramatic way. Probably what's inevitable is that Russia will have to gradually move towards the values of a liberal democracy if they want to be taken seriously by the civilized world.

[PhaelixWW]

Everyone knows youre wrong. If you dont know youre wrong, theres something wrong upstairs.

Shift the goal posts all you want, slam sources all you want, it doesnt change the fact that Ukraine is perfectly capable of taking out tanks.

Dude, just give it up already. The only one embarrassing themselves in this is you.

Ukraine has been able to take out some tanks, but they're simply not equipped to take out a 40-mile long convoy.

[Rasulis]

Russian oil isn't sanctioned yet, but it may as well be. Nobody wants it.



Will this hurt at the pump? Yes. Will it hurt Russia more? Da.

The odd thing about this is that Russia's oil and gas are not under any kind of sanction. As of today, there is no embargo. Just the potential of an embargo is enough to make the product too hot to handle.

[Breccia]

Just the potential of an embargo is enough to make the product too hot to handle.

That, and as others have posted, the moral issue. Some oil companies just don't want to be part of it, or perhaps just as bad, don't want to be seen as part of it."No Russia oil" might become as popular a sticker on products as "gluten-free"

EDIT: Anyone got a line on Putin "I did that!" stickers for gas stations? I can't help but notice a certain quietness from the rabid fanbase now that we have proof Trump's close friend is responsible for the latest rise at the pump.

[Daymanmb]

Ukraine has been able to take out some tanks, but they're simply not equipped to take out a 40-mile long convoy.

NATO did it 30 years ago with a couple of out dated planes... its really not about being properly equipped.. They dont have to take out the entire convoy for the convoy to be rendered ineffective.

[Khaza-R]

What is the long term effects in Russia from these events? Is there any likelihood that the political integrity within Russia will falter? Could we see new breakaway republics?

No one can answer that at this moment in time.

But lets also be clear here that no one should want to the complete destabilization of Russia. Unless the thought of hundreds of missing small nukes in the black market sounds like an exciting prospect to you.

[Adam Jensen]

I have this feeling of dread that this could become an all-out war dragging in other countries/NATO if Putin decides he has nothing else to lose.

I hope beyond hope that it doesn't come to that but I just can't shake that anxiety.

That's what I've been afraid of. Putin realizes he's losing and decides to go all in against NATO.

That's why this conflict is more concerning to me than other conflicts like in Yemen or other places. All of those conflicts are serious tragedies, but the one in Ukraine could spiral into something even worse.

Hopefully the show of Russian incompetence so far will prove me wrong. It seems to me like significant amounts of Putin's military doesn't understand why they're in Ukraine, doesn't want to be in Ukraine and many of them didn't even expect to meet resistance. The Russian people are risking arrest to protest in the streets. I don't think Putin has as much power as he believes . . . but he might have enough to be a serious threat to the rest of us.

[Easo]

Yes, and I literally just pointed out Russia's historical treatment of Ukraine and their present opinion that Ukrainian national identity is an aberration that only exists because of the USSR's collapse making "feeding them and leaving them alone" not a likely outcome. Not sure why you think saying "it's Ukraine" refutes that.

Or maybe I'm wrong and the Kremlin is totally fine as long as their neighbors are demilitarized. Hey, why don't we resolve further international tensions by booting the Baltics out of NATO and giving you back to Russia? It's not like they won't feed you and leave you alone.

They are not going to go and start genociding Ukrainians. At least for once listen to Gaidax, it is not going to happen. This is not USSR under Stalin, Kremlin will put down the fist, with absolute certainty, on any instigatiors of national hatred. They know their PR, they don't hate Ukrainians. Propaganda, "denazification", sure, but not whatever it is people here are trying to imply.

They've been artificially starved by Russians once before to the point of several million deaths. So color them and me skeptical.

Historically the Baltics have gotten a much nicer and hands off treatment from the Kremlin than the Ukrainians.

They are not going to be starving them... Common.

Lol that's not an editorial. Tanks have been destroyed by Ukrainians. I dont know why youre embarrassing yourself and clinging to:


Everyone knows youre wrong. If you dont know youre wrong, theres something wrong upstairs.

Shift the goal posts all you want, slam sources all you want, it doesnt change the fact that Ukraine is perfectly capable of taking out tanks.

NATO did do it 30 years ago with a couple of out dated planes... its really not about being properly equipped.. They dont have to take out the entire convoy for the convoy to be rendered ineffective.

Jesus christ. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

With Russia's economy hurting badly and most likely blocking foreign aid I say starvation is all but guaranteed.

Sanctions will fully start to take effect in years, Russia can absolutely feed them - and Ukraine is one of the biggest grain producers in the world, capacity for which is not going to be destroyed.

[Rasulis]

That, and as others have posted, the moral issue. Some oil companies just don't want to be part of it, or perhaps just as bad, don't want to be seen as part of it."No Russia oil" might become as popular a sticker on products as "gluten-free"

EDIT: Anyone got a line on Putin "I did that!" stickers for gas stations? I can't help but notice a certain quietness from the rabid fanbase now that we have proof Trump's close friend is responsible for the latest rise at the pump.

Oil companies have no moral. Otherwise, they wouldn't be in the business. They only worship the dollar sign.

[Mihalik]

They are not going to be starving them... Common.

Like how they weren't going to invade?

[PhaelixWW]

NATO did it 30 years ago with a couple of out dated planes... its really not about being properly equipped..

BBC: Why has Russia's 64km convoy near Kyiv stopped moving?

Could the convoy be destroyed?

Ukraine does have some air capability, and has been using powerful Turkish-made drones to destroy other Russian convoys. But according to Gen Barrons, Kyiv simply does not have the military force necessary to destroy a column of this size.

"They've been good at attacking the convoy from the front and sides," he said, but any damage inflicted from the air would be too localised.

Russia will also have air defences around the convoy which could bring down Ukrainian targets, Gen Barrons added. So an air attack on the convoy would risk losing more of Ukraine's already limited air force.

So yeah, pretty much what I said.

They dont have to take out the entire convoy for the convoy to be rendered ineffective.

Temporarily...

What will the convoy do next?

Despite all the reported problems, the fact remains that a huge column of Russian military equipment is located to the north of Kyiv and at some point it is likely to advance.

"This enormous column...will encircle and lay siege to the capital," the former head of the British Army, General Lord Dannatt, told the BBC, adding that an attempt by the Russians to take Kyiv street by street would be hugely damaging.

And Gen Barrons said the convoy still contained a lot of military capability which could bring great harm to Kyiv.

He said the convoy was likely to become part of a force that would encircle Kyiv with a combination of artillery and infantry.

At that point, he said, the Russians would have two choices. Either issue an ultimatum to surrender, or recognise that the city would not give up and attack it in the same way they have in Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv.

For now the people of Kyiv can only watch and wait to see what the convoy does next.

Being rendered temporarily ineffective doesn't really help much unless it can be destroyed while it is. And as we already covered...

[Poopymonster]

That, and as others have posted, the moral issue. Some oil companies just don't want to be part of it, or perhaps just as bad, don't want to be seen as part of it."No Russia oil" might become as popular a sticker on products as "gluten-free"

EDIT: Anyone got a line on Putin "I did that!" stickers for gas stations? I can't help but notice a certain quietness from the rabid fanbase now that we have proof Trump's close friend is responsible for the latest rise at the pump.

They're confused.
Trump's bestest friend Putin was smart and a genius for going into Ukraine.
Trump then said his best friend Putin went all Holocaust by going into Ukraine.
Half of his followers are thinking "So nothing happened."
While the other half are furiously masturbating.