Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Thekri]

It's wild hearing them shit talk each other like this is fuckin CoD. Does that mean CoD accurately portrayed war? Or that a generation raised on CoD are bringing that culture to war with them.

It means that CoD copies enough of the visual and audio characteristics of war that CoD is the closest reference point to real war that most observers have.

It does not mean that CoD is particularly accurate, or that the situation particularly resembles anything in CoD.

...besides, Russians play Counterstrike.

[PhaelixWW]

It's wild hearing them shit talk each other like this is fuckin CoD. Does that mean CoD accurately portrayed war? Or that a generation raised on CoD are bringing that culture to war with them.

Realistically... both, sorta. Reinforcing an age-old pattern of human behavior, with regression to the mean.

[PACOX]

I keep seeing people acting like this ends when they control Kyiv, but you guys never really elaborate more than that. You all talk about troop placements and supply lines and logistics, but you never talk about occupation or withdrawal. Why is that? US took Bagdhad after a month, but was stuck doing counter-insurgency for the next 8 years.

What do you guys think the strategy is for Russia after Kyiv falls?

The US actually somewhat cared about taking responsibility for its mess.

You think Putin cares?

Only Putin knows but it would be out of character for him to just leave. As long as Ukraine remains neutral or in a chaotic state, a man stuck in the Cold War like Putin does not care about aftermath.

Insurgency in Ukraine is going to wild with all the weapons they received.

[Thekri]

As for Russia's military. There's going to be enormous changes because of all the massive screw ups we've seen happen. It will get better, far deadlier and stronger.

In a few years we might see Putin make a grab for the Baltics, Poland and Romania, if he's willing to risk WW3.

How do you figure? Seriously, how the hell do you reach that conclusion? Is Putin being angry with them going to make them better? Stalin got mad at his army, shot all the generals. Didn't make the Red Army better.

It is one thing to claim they will get better, but please, elaborate on the HOW. Is he going to have more money in the future? Because Russia was supposed to have 2300 T-14s by 2022. They have seven, and at least 4 of them don't run any more. They have 10 Su-57s, and they can't afford more of those either. Their warships catch fire in port, or they drop cranes on them. This isn't a situation that started in this war, Russian military was transparently shit before. How is he going to afford to fix them after the west took all his foreign assets, his currency collapsed, his stock market refuses to open, and his national credit rating is officially junk? Is China going to bankroll his entire rearmament?

You seriously think an Army that gets humiliated in Ukraine is going to try for Poland? Seriously? Even if it "Gets better" it is a couple magnitudes of order too weak to stand up to European nations, let alone the US. Do you know what MLRS would do to that convoy north of Kyiv?

[Corvus]

Don't forget this is supposed to be the reformed Russian army after the problems they had in Georgia.

[Shadowferal]

'A rush to failure': How the Russian military started off so badly in Ukraine

“The early stages of the campaign were reminiscent of the Russian army of almost 30 years ago,” one expert said, with units lacking clear direction and "dying horribly as a result.”

Leonid Polyakov, Ukraine's former vice minister of defense, was trained by the Soviet military. He said over the phone from Kyiv that Ukraine had regularly cycled its military units through the Donbas region in the country's east, where they have fought Russian-backed separatists since 2014.

Its military, battle-hardened by the long-running conflict, had also received training from Western nations, including the U.S., the United Kingdom, Canada, Poland and Lithuania, he said.

"It may be surprising for some people, but it is not so for Ukrainians," Polyakov said. "Ukrainian land forces exceed in terms of fighting ability the superior numbers of Russian troops."

He also said that it appeared Russia had not paid attention to the weather, as they had gotten much of their war machinery stuck in thick Ukrainian mud that is typical at this time of year in the region's black soil, which he called a "natural defense."

"As Napoleon once said," Polyakov added, "'When your enemy makes mistakes, don't try and stop them.'"

[Belize]

How do you figure? Seriously, how the hell do you reach that conclusion?

Costin has been shilling for russia since before this thread. That's how they figure.

[Thekri]

Don't forget this is supposed to be the reformed Russian army after the problems they had in Georgia.

Exactly. Every time they have problems, they make dramatic reforms and claim they are better now. They never are.

For a specific example, look at the turrets on T-72 series tanks (Including T-80 and T-90 models). They developed a reputation for blowing their turrets off and killing the crew, because unlike larger western tanks, they don't have blowout panels on the turret to vent force from fuel and ammo explosions when the tank is hit. Instead, the shape of the tank funnels pressure generated in the hull into the turret, instantly killing the turret crew, and sending the turret flying.

This is a really characteristic trait of the T-72, and obviously not a good thing for either combat effectiveness or the morale of the crew. So Russia "Fixed" it on the M models (M stands for modernized, so T-72BM and so forth). The M model adds a solid screen between the turret in the hull, and the oligarch who sold the upgrade swore it was totally fixed, and T-72s no longer had that problem. All the tanks Russia sent into Ukraine are M models... suffice it to say it didn't work. At all.

That is the heart of Russia's military problems. Corruption and politics. The Russian federation inherited the culture and flaws of the Red Army, and compounded them with the additional weaknesses of capitalism. Greed and corruption are hard to root out, and it is really laughable to believe that Putin of all people will be capable of resolving the underlying problems he profited from and allowed to flourish for 30 years. He cannot solve the problem without tearing out the roots of his own support, he relies on corruption to rule.

[Khaza-R]

The US actually somewhat cared about taking responsibility for its mess.

Lets not go too far. The only difference is the US pretends to care while Putin admits he's a sh*tbag who doesn't. The US left Iraq with ISIS and did the minimum in helping with that. And then there's some of the most vile war crimes in history like Fallujah that still need to be accounted and paid for.

[Kathranis]

It is one thing to claim they will get better, but please, elaborate on the HOW. Is he going to have more money in the future? Because Russia was supposed to have 2300 T-14s by 2022. They have seven, and at least 4 of them don't run any more. They have 10 Su-57s, and they can't afford more of those either. Their warships catch fire in port, or they drop cranes on them. This isn't a situation that started in this war, Russian military was transparently shit before. How is he going to afford to fix them after the west took all his foreign assets, his currency collapsed, his stock market refuses to open, and his national credit rating is officially junk? Is China going to bankroll his entire rearmament?

It seems to me like a lot of the armchair generals here can talk about invasion strategies all day, but when it gets to the actual long tail logistics of war they mum up quick.

Ukraine has a pretty massive military of its own (300k+), and a growing volunteer resistance that's now also including tens of thousands of foreign legionnaires. The insurgency will almost certainly be massive, and Russia seems to have no clear strategy in place for combatting it. Keep in mind that the Iraqi insurgency varied between an estimated 3,000-7,000 fighters at any given time, and kept the US busy for nearly a decade.

Can they seriously afford an occupation? If they can't, how does it not just change hands back to Ukrainian rebels when they turn to withdraw? How the fuck do they even withdraw, at this point? Those convoys look like ropes of toothpaste -- gonna be real hard to get 'em back in the tube.

Just seems like a complete and total clusterfuck to me.

I'm gonna reiterate that Putin's only viable option for getting out of this remotely clean will probably be some bullshit farce of a ceasefire agreement that allows him to pretend to save face. Ukraine might have to make some pretty sizeable concessions because ultimately Russia does have inevitability on its side, but I'm really not sure if letting this drag out is better for Russia or worse, given the monumental cost.

[Shadowferal]

Don't need to do much about that stalled convoy if logistics and supply doesn't exist. In another week I'd be able to trade a soldier his rifle for my stale Halloween candy.

[Thekri]

Don't need to do much about that stalled convoy if logistics and supply doesn't exist. In another week I'd be able to trade a soldier his rifle for my stale Halloween candy.

You might be able to do that now. That convoy needs a staggering mount of supplies every day just to survive, let alone move and fight. Each soldier in there needs to eat and drink at minimum, that is hundreds of trucks a day with fresh water and food. You need to provide fuel for the vehicles, even if they are just idling. You need spare parts for the vehicles who break or get damaged, and medical supplies for the soldiers who are sick or wounded. You need to repair damage to the road so vehicles can move, and fix areas that get so torn and muddied that vehicles can't pass, that requires a lot of material as well.

Here is the fun part, none of that seems to be happening. There isn't a supply lane that is left unobstructed for trucks to go back to Belarus and get the shit they need, instead, there are stopped vehicles in all the lanes. There is no way to get trucks back and forth down the road. So that convoy has just been sitting and eating and drinking what they brought with them, and shitting by the side of the road. That shitting thing isn't a joke either, there are no bathroom facilities there, and after seven days, that is a lot of feces near where people sleep. In past wars, disease often killed more then the enemy. In modern wars that isn't usually true, but only because modern armies usually do shit like hygiene and resupply, this convoy can't. Oh, and by the way there is a Pandemic. I wonder how many people in that convoy have Covid...

[PhaelixWW]

Don't need to do much about that stalled convoy if logistics and supply doesn't exist. In another week I'd be able to trade a soldier his rifle for my stale Halloween candy.

Which is almost certainly why we're seeing reports that Russia is likely to start bombing those cities in earnest soon. They need to beat the Ukrainians back ASAP.

[Kathranis]

Which is almost certainly why we're seeing reports that Russia is likely to start bombing those cities in earnest soon. They need to beat the Ukrainians back ASAP.

I mean, do they get "beaten back" or do they just relocate?

What kind of defensive perimeters do they have on the sides of this convoy? Do they even have any FOBs setup?

If this gets to the point of guerilla combat, I really wouldn't want to be the guys stuck in the middle of a 64km human centipede.

[Corvus]

Samsung is joining the exodus from Russia.

[Elenos]

How do you figure? Seriously, how the hell do you reach that conclusion? Is Putin being angry with them going to make them better? Stalin got mad at his army, shot all the generals. Didn't make the Red Army better.

It is one thing to claim they will get better, but please, elaborate on the HOW. Is he going to have more money in the future?

Russia has significant currency reserves and the financial issues will not impact Russia's military, although being cut off from certain raw materials due to sanctions absolutely will. If anything I expect regular Russians to suffer immensely but I also expect Russia to pour in significant resources to fixing their military problems.

Sanctions will hurt Russia. They won't necessarily hurt Russia's military capabilities. Putin has rolled the dice. Either he puts the resources to improve the military or he can give up.

Regarding how they will fix them. Well let's look at the nature of the problem. Russia deployed around 200.000 troops around Ukraine, but did not adequately supply or prepare them for a full blown invasion of Ukraine, nor did they make available all their artillery/air power for the invasion and significantly limited the munition types being used on urban areas ( those limitations are ending, but I don't expect a FOAB to be dropped on Kiev for instance ).

On top of that while certain portions of the Russian military are well trained, organized and prepared others are not. Russia itself claimed around 70% modernization, reality is probably less. So that's the current problem. They wanted to take Ukraine with perhaps 50.000 troops in a few days and now have ended up fighting in a drawn out of slugging match that will last months. Really they should have known better. It's shocking to see a military that did quite well in 2014 and in Syria perform on such an abysmal level, but that's what happens when Russian generals drink their kool-aid and believe they can conquer a country larger then Iraq with a far more competent military then the Iraqi one.

The grand convoy north Kiev? Well the majority of the troops that Russia sent in towards Kiev are some of it's worst troops at least according to numerous media outlets the best troops were deployed in the east and south, and while they have suffered setbacks, those good troops have done fairly well against Ukraine and have not suffered the humiliating episodes as the troops in the north on Kiev's west side where basically the VDV was supposed to do all the work, and well clearly was not sufficient ( though genuinely what imbecile believes a few battalions can take a city the size of Kiev really does deserve a bullet ).

My point is that Russia's military isn't as a whole on the level we've seen in certain bad sectors of this war so far, they can and have even in this war done significantly better: The Crimean Front has enjoyed a relative high level of success for instance.

A lot of analysts are shocked at how very poorly Russia has done. Poland did a whole simulation some time back saying they'd lose a war with Russia in 5 days, now Ukraine has lasted almost 10 and they have a vastly inferior military to Poland ( who enjoys much better equipment in areas, training etc. ). But Russian will learn lessons here to not launch this kind of adventure without the logistical support in place, and to get all their troops and equipment up to higher standards.


They won't launch another such foolish adventure again. In Chechnya they learned, in Georgia they learned and improved after, hell much of their military history throughout their entire existence has been then getting their asses handed to them and then coming back for a rematch better and stronger ( Peter the Great vs Sweden, Alexander vs Napoleon, Stalin vs Hitler ) they will improve after this debacle and while some people might believe Ukraine will stay alive I personally don't see how they win this. Perhaps some ceasefire? I doubt that honestly, and it wouldn't last anyway.

For what it's worth @Thekri I do genuinely hope I am wrong, because if Russia conquers Ukraine, and possibly Moldova ( who would fall easily ) then Romania, Poland and the Baltics are next. I have family members who are military reservists who have been told they might get called up if things go badly and I really don't want my country to become like Ukraine, it would kill our future.

[Rasulis]

West coast dock worker union refused to unload any Russian cargo.

[Shadowferal]

In so far as I can determine with my untrained eye, Ukraine forces have been fluid, mobile...no stopping to trade shots. Guerrilla tactics, get Russian forces to waste ammo and supplies. Ukraine knows it's the underdog and can't afford to go toe-to-toe.

[PhaelixWW]

I mean, do they get "beaten back" or do they just relocate?

Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's going to have the effect that Russia will hope it will. But regardless, if Russia can beat Zelensky out of Kyiv, then Russian forces can "claim" victory, even though everyone will know that it's entirely hollow.

What kind of defensive perimeters do they have on the sides of this convoy? Do they even have any FOBs setup?

Lulz. I think that's giving them too much credit. I don't think they're dug in anywhere, no. At least not on purpose, not in any meaningfully defensive and/or strategic way.

They're definitely "stuck" rather than "dug in".

If this gets to the point of guerilla combat, I really wouldn't want to be the guys stuck in the middle of a 64km human centipede.

I think we're already at the point where those guys should be worrying, yeah.

[Shadowferal]

They won't launch another such foolish adventure again. In Chechnya they learned, in Georgia they learned and improved after, hell much of their military history throughout their entire existence has been then getting their asses handed to them and then coming back for a rematch better and stronger ( Peter the Great vs Sweden, Alexander vs Napoleon, Stalin vs Hitler ) they will improve after this debacle and while some people might believe Ukraine will stay alive I personally don't see how they win this. Perhaps some ceasefire? I doubt that honestly, and it wouldn't last anyway.

You've been wrong from the beginning.