No, Ukraine is screwed alright. That doesn't unscrew Russia - and Ukrainians won't give up, it's their chance now after so many years.
My point is Russia was sorta winning WW1 but had a revolution in 1917. They're sorta winning now, but not really winning. They still haven't entered nationalistic regions. So the eventual peace deal with Ukraine (+West) will include words "internationally recognized borders".
Edit - P.S. Okay, I'm celebrating the potential for me to live in a normal country again and not in a breakaway shithole where I can't travel without pain and can't use international banking normally etc.
Coming from somebody who think any war with NATO and other superpowers is somehow not WW3
So now Germany should not re-militarize? Make up your mind for once.There will be no WWIII. Once war knocks on the door of Baltics and Romania, Germans will bail, blink and shiv their ''allies''.
Baltics invasion would also trigger NATO... which would trigger WW3, how does that work out?
Yeah I've seen those videos. You need to be mindful that these soldiers are captives and will say anything to make themselves look better. They are in a high pressure situation, they don't know if they're going to be tortured or not. I'd say I didn't know what was going on, too.
But it's your job to apply critical thinking and go "Hmm, I don't believe you." Don't just take at face value what someone says on camera.
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Nuclear weapons are useless, they will not be used to protect Baltics, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary or the Czech Republic. Forget about them.
There is nothing conflicting there. They will betray NATO allies because they ARE weak. Even if they do go through with their military rearmament, that is at least 5-10 years away from having any influence on a hypothetical battlefield. People with no experience in heavy industries do not understand just what a titanic effort it is to do 180 pivots.
Russia takes over Baltics and Romania and keeps on rolling until they meet a wall of steel and/or geographical barrier. And that will be the end of that alliance which US has in the last decade regarded as liability after the refusal of it's core allies to support American campaigns while benefiting from all the perks that US military grants.
I know I would. Imagine the situation, you're captured, fed, put in a vehicle with people that are not too pleased with you, your enemies, they drive you off to some building nearby, you know you're going to get interrogated/debriefed at some point... of course you make up a dumb story about how you really didn't mean to <insert reason for them to fuck you up>, you are a conscript, you just don't know any better... and then someone shoves a camera into your face telling you "So, this is your chance, what do you want to tell the world?"
And also, that narrative is almost perfect for Ukrainian propaganda, too. I'm not even sure if the guy asking the questions didn't prepare them "Hey, Dimitri, when I ask you, just pretend you didn't know... it'll be fine" and voila, you can present the most incompetent army on the planet, that video will not only bolster morale in Ukraine, it'll find its way into Russia, demoralising their population and show the West that Ukraine is a good ally to have...
There is no advantage to anyone not doing this.
And while I agree that yes, one or two may be that stupid, I think it is very improbable that is is the norm for Russian soldiers.
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Because Germany had the potential to play a major role in NATO and they walked away from it. And it is the country that will be sitting a spitting distance away if/when Russia pushes in Eastern/Central Europe.
Other countries are simply too far away. Germany is the first line of proper defence and power projection and they are unable to fulfil that role. Poles are trying but they can't possibly succeed.