Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

Russia will survive this

You'd be surprised what you can live through. Considering people like Deripaska are already begging for the war to end, we know the right people are feeling it -- even as it takes its toll on the Russian people, many of whom opposed the invasion.

It's not about killing them. But it is about consequences for their actions. Putin is surrounded by allies he just made far less rich, as well as millions of people who he made even poorer. Will he be assassinated? Will there be a change of power? Obviously I hope so, but this is how we're doing it. If the oligarchs would rather keep Putin and allow him to choke out the civilian population, at least they'll be doing it with less comfort and less money.

They'll survive, but this is going to hurt.

Good.

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The Russians are basically sticking only to the highways.

So, where the tanks and trucks can go?

Ukraine isn't worth anything in rubbles

I'm sorry, I speak fluent typo but I really need to know if you meant "Russian currency" or "pile of broken buildings".

[Easo]

People talking about "just keeping to roads" - if you control the roads aka infrastructure, you control the territory. What, Ukrainians do not need to eat, sleep and resupply "behind the enemy lines"? They do not get stuck in the mud? Wait, we got bunch of their tanks and APC's stuck last week. Small units are not going to try and hold back in some cutoff village, that's suicide.
Ukraine posted way less successes last week, instead we saw more of Russia's. You should understand why. Even the increased Russian aviation losses mostly due to MANPAD's should be telling.

did Ukraine sink a Russian ship last night off Odessa?

Not as far as we can tell, even the official announcement was "damaged". Largish patrol ship of this class https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_22160_patrol_ship

No actual proof so far.

This is apparently the reality Easo, Gaidax and a few other pro-Russians of this thread live in. I live in a reality where "internationally recognized borders" is a sensible talking point. Time will tell.

I have no idea WTF you are talking about and how exactly that map has anything to do with borders as opposed to the miltiary situation. On the first glance - southwest has way too much taken land and control is not that tight. No real info about actual fights at the Transnistria.

Russians are 50km south of Zaporizhzhia, and very close to Slavjansk and Kramatorsk. In north units have appeared near Kiev's eastern suburbs, due to all the encircling and bypassing. Donbas frontline, especially in Lugansk region is being pushed back daily.

Where is the issue, again?

P.S.
I tend to use this one https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/vi...Ukraine/091194

[snebb]

I'm sorry, I speak fluent typo but I really need to know if you meant "Russian currency" or "pile of broken buildings".

It's pretty synonymous at this point lol

[Breccia]

He probably feels backed into a corner

Fuck his feelings.

I do agree that, if Russia is entered into martial law, Putin will realize he has bigger problems and the Ukraine invasion will slow down. That's a good point, thanks for sharing.

[Fugus]

They'll survive, but this is going to hurt.

The question is, when it comes to the right people, will it hurt in the sense that their standard of living has taken a noticeable turn for the worse to the point they would be better off living an upper middle class life elsewhere or will it hurt in the sense that they have a lower high score in their bank accounts.

[Breccia]

Damn, the ruble has crashed an additional 30% in just the last few hours.

Russia’s currency sank to a record low Monday as traders struggled to get access to the ruble.

The ruble fell to 137 to a dollar, a decline of more than 10% from Friday’s close, as traders say that the ability to buy and sell the Russian currency has become more limited as fewer banks want to settle transactions against it in the offshore market.

Russian markets were also closed Monday for a holiday, likely further reducing the number of trades happening. The country’s markets were shut last week as Russia tried to contain the fallout from sweeping Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

That's the WSJ 7 hours ago. Posting here for the bolded.

[Easo]

Some of you might notice that one person missing.



Germany will keep working with Russia regarding energy supply. There is no real choice at the moment, anyway.

[Gorsameth]

The question is, when it comes to the right people, will it hurt in the sense that their standard of living has taken a noticeable turn for the worse to the point they would be better off living an upper middle class life elsewhere or will it hurt in the sense that they have a lower high score in their bank accounts.

I care little about how well off some Russia oligarch is.
Wars are expensive. Destroy Russia's economy to the point where it can't afford to wage war and the world will be a better place.

[Breccia]

The question is, when it comes to the right people, will it hurt in the sense that their standard of living has taken a noticeable turn for the worse to the point they would be better off living an upper middle class life elsewhere or will it hurt in the sense that they have a lower high score in their bank accounts.

Indeed, that's always going to be tough. It's one of the reasons that their out-of-Russia holdings need to be seized, leaving them basically trapped in Russia with only what they happen to have in their basement at the time. Until we decide to blow them up or shoot them, and there's no evidence or common sense leading to that, it's the best we can do. It's not like we're going to give weapons to Russian civilians, for example.

I've personally posted stories about, even though the Russian stock exchange is closed, a lot of Russian businesses have dropped a ton in value. 80% to 99% in some cases. I'm sure there are Russian oligarchs so very rich they can lose 99% of their value but a bitch ain't one, I mean, but still be okay with the remaining 1%. Thing is, people so rich they're fine with 1% of their wealth, don't like losing 99% of it. And since the stock market is a predictive force based on sanctions and trade restrictions that aren't going away, there's no reason to believe it's getting any better soon. And things won't magically get better when what's left of Ukraine finally surrenders.

The squeeze on the Russian civilians is, sadly, also capitalism's weapon being used. Make no mistake, even with Russia losing FB and Twitter, the average Russian knows their country is locking down all the dollars and euros for themselves, searching them on the street for text messages, and arresting those who complain. They also know the slap in the finances they're getting are because of Putin's actions, not random or arbitrary penalties by the rest of the world done out of nowhere. They don't have to like it, in fact, they're supposed to hate it. But they're also supposed to know why it's happening, and they do.

Could Russia's citizens fight back? Yeah, probably. They could collectively shut off all exports entirely. Problem is, they're so heavily outnumbered, that this is more of a suicide bomb than an artillery strike. The ruble might be slipping...no, it's definitely slipping, but it does still hold some value. If they stop selling stuff, true we don't have it, but then they don't have anything.

The idea is to encourage the Russian people to realize that their best bet is to replace their leaders. Way far easier said than done. But you can't do that with a smiley-face emoji and a bottle of Canadian maple syrup. People in a decent place don't leave their decent place on a whim. People in a bad place fight like hell for a better one.

Just ask Ukraine.

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Germany will keep working with Russia regarding energy supply. There is no real choice at the moment, anyway.

Indeed, Putin doesn't really have much of a choice. If he can't sell oil, what's left of his economy will be smashed into bits.

[Baza]

I don't know if you saw the attack on the Sky News' team vehicle, that was insane. All 5 people are safe with minor injuries. Who needs an action movie when this happens IRL.... Jesus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_05Qj92W9Q

[Shadowferal]

People talking about "just keeping to roads" - if you control the roads aka infrastructure, you control the territory.

Hard disagree. Guerrilla warfare became the rule. The Ukrainians have become fluid, mobile off-road, had they tried a stand up fight trading blow for blow this would have probably been over by now.

[Elegiac]

People talking about "just keeping to roads" - if you control the roads aka infrastructure, you control the territory.

Afghanistan. 'Nuff said.

[Shadowferal]

Indeed, Putin doesn't really have much of a choice. If he can't sell oil, what's left of his economy will be smashed into bits.

After the fat lady sings, Russia could try to make an economic comeback by selling oil at cost.

[Grapemask]

I don't know if you saw the attack on the Sky News' team vehicle, that was insane. All 5 people are safe with minor injuries. Who needs an action movie when this happens IRL.... Jesus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_05Qj92W9Q

You have to brave as hell to be reporting in Ukraine. It's the indiscriminate carpet bombing of urban centers that terrifies the shit out of me. At least you have a chance of seeing the people with guns.

[PfeffermintShake]

You'd be surprised what you can live through. Considering people like Deripaska are already begging for the war to end, we know the right people are feeling it -- even as it takes its toll on the Russian people, many of whom opposed the invasion.

It's not about killing them. But it is about consequences for their actions. Putin is surrounded by allies he just made far less rich, as well as millions of people who he made even poorer. Will he be assassinated? Will there be a change of power? Obviously I hope so, but this is how we're doing it. If the oligarchs would rather keep Putin and allow him to choke out the civilian population, at least they'll be doing it with less comfort and less money.

They'll survive, but this is going to hurt.

Dunno, HIstory^TM is like 50/50 on this. Russia being like the only northern hemisphere country to have had an economic collapse in the last 30ish years. Quite the self-object lesson.

1991, the economy collapse and USSR or (Russia Empire) government collapse.
1998, near economic collapse, lead to a almost coup and a near collapse of the government. They recover this time, thanks western aid!.

Sure the economies of 1991 and 1998 are very different from the economy of 2022. But there's an Iron Law of History^tm about starving people running around with wheelbarrows full of worthless currency, being a bad sign for your government...

We'll see in a few weeks!

Also to channel @Skroe again. Another of his pet issues was the breakup of the Russian Empire Federation. People often mistook this pure American bravado. But again, Histroy makes a case. From like the Napoleonic era, Russia in its various forms, has started more wars with bordering countries than anyone else. Partly a quirk of geography; bordering so many countries, of having so many longitudinal borders, spanning 20 zillion timezones is backing yourself into a corner. Partly bordering so many tempting targets ... lets grab some counties from the collapsing Ottomans, again with the Qing Dynasty. Lets test that Japanese EMpire, see if they can actually hold that...
Then having the will or desire or small penis complex to go out and grab all that territory.

Then there's the Iron Law of Civ, that your cities suffer from so much corruption for every 1.6x tiles from the capital. And the Tsar being unable to invest in researching the Modern Era Tech that nullifies this penalty.

Bring back the guillotine breaking up the Axis States. For the case of internal and regional stability.

Anyone else notice how Cosplay Socialists lately:
2015-2021: US is Fascists, Burn it DoWn! Revolution!
Today: Russia ... Dont Burn it Down ... *sniff

/s

[Elegiac]

Indeed, Putin doesn't really have much of a choice. If he can't sell oil, what's left of his economy will be smashed into bits.

Yep.

For all the "RUSSIA STR0NK" people insisting that Putain is playing 5D chess and has planned every single contingency, the reality is that the survival of Russia's economy depends on its ability to export fossil fuels. And while a supply shock in terms of losing Russian oil and natural gas would be nasty in the short term, it's ultimately one that Western economies are capable of weathering until alternative supply lines can be established. And therein is the other thing; once those alternatives get established, there's no reason to ever bother dealing with Russia again.

It's abundantly clear at this point that the Kremlin was not in fact expecting Ukraine to put up the level of resistance that it has, and it has not expected the level of response from the rest of the world. They wanted a quick, easy affair that would present enough of a fait accompli to deter any serious response; what they've got is another Afghanistan, this time in Europe's back yard - and the longer it goes on, and the more the humanitarian crimes pile up ("He's just gonna turn Kyiv into Aleppo") the more impetus there is to maintain a harsh and unified response.

To say nothing of the fact that this ultimately represents a fundamental challenge to the world order as it has been understood since the end of WWI; that is, it's a given that states do not have the freedom to simply engage in wars of conquest. If Putain does not climb down of his own accord, or is not forced to do so by those in his vicinity, then the only solution is to absolutely grind Russia into the dirt until it's sitting pretty with the likes of Venezuela or North Korea.

[Draco-Onis]

After the fat lady sings, Russia could try to make an economic comeback by selling oil at cost.

It would be naive to think that Putin isn't selling oil now through the black market or directly, there is no direct sanction on oil and LNG. Russian oil is currently selling at a heavy discount will go lower as the rubble keeps tanking eventually greed will win.

[Poopymonster]

Fuck his feelings.

I do agree that, if Russia is entered into martial law, Putin will realize he has bigger problems and the Ukraine invasion will slow down. That's a good point, thanks for sharing.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
Declaring Martial Law would have the military keeping the peace at gunpoint.
That means the military gets to camp out in cities for a while.
How many soldiers would be required to enforce government approved mandatory happyness?
Granted they have a metric shitload of soldiers.
They also have a metric "Catholic family reunion" of shitloads of people.

How many of the people being sent to reinforce the invasion of Ukraine are diverted to help enforce happyness at home?

[Draco-Onis]

problem is russia is just offering ukraine a slow death with these demands, no president could accept them.

Ukraines leverage is telling them to fuck off and offering Russia a slow death. Those sanctions and military costs will be so huge, Russia will be absoltely fucked middle of the summer.

It's a gamble but as much as I hate to say this Russia has more time than Ukraine on this, how long will united front last when the chickens come home to roost. At the moment most people see these sanctions as something affecting Russia and Ukraine but inflation, energy and gas bills are going up. A pandemic that killed 1 million Americans and still kills 2K people a day and we got "tired" of hearing about that fairly quickly.

There's also the fallout of millions of people moving into Europe although they are fine with them since they aren't brown there will be cost associated with that. I know people want Putin to get his comeupins but in real life that barely happens bad guys win all the time.

[Elegiac]

-snip-

Y'all really need to realise that defeatism is not the same as being pragmatic or realistic. It's getting really tiresome.