Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Draco-Onis]

You'd be surprised what you can live through. Considering people like Deripaska are already begging for the war to end, we know the right people are feeling it -- even as it takes its toll on the Russian people, many of whom opposed the invasion.

It's not about killing them. But it is about consequences for their actions. Putin is surrounded by allies he just made far less rich, as well as millions of people who he made even poorer. Will he be assassinated? Will there be a change of power? Obviously I hope so, but this is how we're doing it. If the oligarchs would rather keep Putin and allow him to choke out the civilian population, at least they'll be doing it with less comfort and less money.

They'll survive, but this is going to hurt.

Good.

But it will also hurt us too and the average Joe is going to vote their wallet over something happening far away. There's a high chance Trump will win in 2024 and he will destroy the sanctions and NATO if they last that long.

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Y'all really need to realise that defeatism is not the same as being pragmatic or realistic. It's getting really tiresome.

No it's the reality of the situation there's nothing defeatist about it.

[Makabreska]

There's also the fallout of millions of people moving into Europe although they are fine with them since they aren't brown there will be cost associated with that. I know people want Putin to get his comeupins but in real life that barely happens bad guys win all the time.

Dunno, tell that to Saddam, Kadafi etc.

[Elegiac]

No it's the reality of the situation there's nothing defeatist about it.

Nah, you're just being defeatist. As evidenced here:

There's a high chance Trump will win in 2024

You're not basing your 'predictions' on anything other than your personal antipathies. You don't like Biden/the Democrats, therefore Trump has a high chance of winning despite there being no evidence of such. You don't like NATO/Germany/the EU, therefore they'll capitulate to Russia despite there being no evidence of such.

It's defeatist, and it's tiresome as hell.

[Draco-Onis]

Dunno, tell that to Saddam, Kadafi etc.

For every Saddam and Kadafi, you have Lukashenko, XI, the North Korean dinasty, The Saudis and the list goes on. The reason Saddam and Kadafi went down is because they pissed off the wrong people in the US and for all the evils they brought forth their country is worse off because of their downfall. There's no sane person that would look at Libya now and think it's better off.

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You're not basing your 'predictions' on anything other than your personal antipathy. You don't like Biden, therefore Trump has a high chance of winning. You don't like NATO/Germany/the EU, therefore they'll capitulate to Russia.

It's defeatist, and it's tiresome as hell.

Have you not look at the new laws in place and the polling, Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024. Biden only won the presidency by a small margin and now republicans have the power to throw out votes. Those are facts feel free to show me where I am wrong, Trump's chances are high.

[Afrospinach]

Why are the Ukrainians fighting better than many had expected?

I think one of the things that has also lead to this remarkably asymmetric performance is that the Russia a. seemed to have some kind of plan based on an expectation that did not pan out which was that the Ukrainians would not mount a defense b. did not really seem to know why they were there at all in what was otherwise a peaceful and close neighbouring country.

The Ukrainians on the other hand are repelling invaders which is in a way quite straight forward.

Unfortunately I do think this means that the worst of the conflict is in fact ahead of us as the Russians get more resolved watching their buddies dying around them.

[Breccia]

How many soldiers would be required to enforce government

Hoo boy. I am led to believe NK has 1.6 million troops and 25 million people. Scaling that up to Russia and Ukraine both would be...twelve million troops.

Four times what Russia currently has.

I'm aware that's not a great answer, but I've never modeled martial law requirements before. Doesn't come up all that often.

[Elegiac]

Have you not look at the new laws in place and the polling

Have you looked at the fact that Donald Trump is 75, in poor health, and has a mounting number of financial liabilities? Have you looked at the fact that the few competent people surrounding him that enabled his victory in 2016 are no longer with him? Have you looked at the fact that the media you consume has a vested interest in keeping you on edge by feeding you bullshit about how the end is nigh?

Thought not. Keep it to yourself.

[Breccia]

But it will also hurt us too and the average Joe is going to vote their wallet over something happening far away.

Honestly, this could be good for Biden. Blaming high gas costs on Putin and saying "the costs Putin has put on America are not enough to keep Russia from collapsing!" would be a misleading but effective thing to say from behind the podium.

The damage to the US will be minimal. The damage to Russia will not be.

[Kaleredar]

But it will also hurt us too and the average Joe is going to vote their wallet over something happening far away. There's a high chance Trump will win in 2024 and he will destroy the sanctions and NATO if they last that long.

the economic impact on the United States will be minimal.

Gas prices go up. It’s what they do. Plus, hating on Russia is a time-honored US political angle, Trump’s momentary Putin ass-kissing aside.

No it's the reality of the situation there's nothing defeatist about it.

If your concern is truly for Ukraine than you’d know them accepting anything other than complete Russian withdrawal is unacceptable.

Because Russia is just going to do this exact same thing again otherwise, only they might actually be prepared next time.


Bad guys win… when no one stops them, because they turn up their bellies like scared dogs hoping the other dog doesn’t rip their throat out.

What you’re suggesting is appeasement. Pray tell have you heard of this thing that happened in the 1930s and 1940s in Europe, and how well that strategy worked to “stop bloodshed?” Spoilers, it didn’t.


Bleed Russia for all they can be bled, so long as Putin maintains his silly little ambitions of rebuilding the USSR. Ukraine is willing to fight; Let them.

And if you’re more concerned with gas prices or the price of wheat than an aggressive nation headed by an autocratic dictator attempting to expand his empire in Europe… that’s on you, bud.

[Elegiac]

Hoo boy. I am led to believe NK has 1.6 million troops and 25 million people. Scaling that up to Russia and Ukraine both would be...twelve million troops.

Four times what Russia currently has.

I'm aware that's not a great answer, but I've never modeled martial law requirements before. Doesn't come up all that often.

Let's also remember that North Korea's population is not Russia's. North Koreans have been in an effective bubble for generations now - at no point has access to foreign media been commonplace, let alone the internet. It is a lot easier to keep that sort of population subjugated.

Russia was a part of the global community until last week. You cannot manufacture a Juche-style personality cult overnight.

[Draco-Onis]

Have you looked at the fact that Donald Trump is 75, in poor health, and has a mounting number of financial liabilities? Have you looked at the fact that the few competent people surrounding him that enabled his victory in 2016 are no longer with him? Have you looked at the fact that the media you consume has a vested interest in keeping you on edge by feeding you bullshit about how the end is nigh?

Thought not. Keep it to yourself.

Did you look at the person running against him? we're not exactly running with Benjamin Buttons. His financial and legal liabilities are the reason he has no choice but to run for office, Trump's campaign wasn't a well oiled machine so I am not sure what delusions you are running on thinking that will be different. Trump will be Trump I am going by his continuing popularity and the fact that now all the laws favor his ascension.

[Breccia]

Let's also remember that North Korea's population is not Russia's

They also have an overwhelmingly unnecessary number of people in the army to keep them fed and therefore happy with Most Glorious Leader. In any event, I don't know of a better model, most countries aren't in a constant state of martial law to base estimates around.

[Elegiac]

Did you look at the person running against him? we're not exactly running with Benjamin Buttons. His financial and legal liabilities are the reason he has no choice but to run for office, Trump's campaign wasn't a well oiled machine so I am not sure what delusions you are running on thinking that will be different. Trump will be Trump I am going by his continuing popularity and the fact that now all the laws favor his ascension.

No, you're going by your dislike of Biden and based on what is being fed to you by a largely sensationalist media. Same goes for your whinging about how everyone's totally going to fold and let Russia upend the international order because gas prices.

[Draco-Onis]

the economic impact on the United States will be minimal.

Gas prices go up. It’s what they do. Plus, hating on Russia is a time-honored US political angle, Trump’s momentary Putin ass-kissing aside.





If your concern is truly for Ukraine than you’d know them accepting anything other than complete Russian withdrawal is unacceptable.

Because Russia is just going to do this exact same thing again otherwise, only they might actually be prepared next time.


Bad guys win… when no one stops them, because they turn up their bellies like scared dogs hoping the other dog doesn’t rip their throat out.

What you’re suggesting is appeasement. Pray tell have you heard of this thing that happened in the 1930s and 1940s in Europe, and how well that strategy worked to “stop bloodshed?” Spoilers, it didn’t.


Bleed Russia for all they can be bled, so long as Putin maintains his silly little ambitions of rebuilding the USSR. Ukraine is willing to fight; Let them.

And if you’re more concerned with gas prices or the price of wheat than an aggressive nation headed by an autocratic dictator attempting to expand his empire in Europe… that’s on you, bud.

Trump's hard core base strongly supports Putin the Russian hate is entirely in the senate. How long do you think Ukraine will keep the world's attention? because in the year 2022 the attention span of people is very short. It will not last years necessary for sanctions like this to force big chance in Russia, Ukrainians will fight for their country and they will continue to get outside help in terms of weapons that's about it. There's trillions of dollars at stake not to mention political ambitions, the window for Ukraine is not as large as that of Russia.

There is a resurgence of right wing around the world people who are fine or support Putin, most people care more about their wallets than anything else. It's cute that after the pandemic you still have faith that we can take suffering together when the greater good is involved. We do the right thing when there's no choice Ukraine is not that important to most people.

[Elegiac]

Trump's hard core base strongly supports Putin the Russian hate is entirely in the senate.

And here's why your take is bullshit.

Polling over the last few weeks has found Republicans, like most Americans, don’t trust Putin. In an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Jan. 22-25, 15 percent of Republicans said they had a very or somewhat favorable view of Putin, similar to the 11 percent of Americans overall who said so. A plurality of Republicans (45 percent) said they had a very unfavorable view of the Russian leader. In a Morning Consult/Politico poll from last week, more Democrats (20 percent) said they strongly or somewhat approved of how Putin was handling the conflict in Ukraine than did Republicans (10 percent). And when asked in a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted Feb. 8-11 whether the U.S. should support Ukraine, support Russia or neither, only 4 percent of Republicans said “support Russia” (in line with the 5 percent of Democrats who said the same).

And you're telling us to look at the polling?

[Draco-Onis]

No, you're going by your dislike of Biden and based on what is being fed to you by a largely sensationalist media. Same goes for your whinging about how everyone's totally going to fold and let Russia upend the international order because gas prices.

You still haven't shown me any data to disprove me just feelings, Biden's approval rating has continued on a downward trajectory. He is getting a temporary bump thanks to Putin but that's well temporary. I dislike Biden but I did not think Trump would survive the insurrection nor that republicans would establish these laws to enable his ascent as a result among other things.

Feel free to show me the numbers that show a different trend because it doesn't take a genius to see where we are heading. A high chance is not a guaranteed a number of things can change in 2 years.

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And here's why your take is bullshit.

yeah Trump's hardcore base is 22-33% of republicans so what part of that was wrong? Did I say all republicans who vote for him are the hardcore base?

[Elegiac]

You still haven't shown me any data to disprove me just feelings

Because polling this far out is less than worthless, as you have pointed out here:

Biden's approval rating has continued on a downward trajectory. He is getting a temporary bump

You're getting us off topic, so kindly take the doomerism to the appropriate threads. Thanks.

[Iphie]

Hoo boy. I am led to believe NK has 1.6 million troops and 25 million people. Scaling that up to Russia and Ukraine both would be...twelve million troops.

Four times what Russia currently has.

I'm aware that's not a great answer, but I've never modeled martial law requirements before. Doesn't come up all that often.

Are you counting reservists? Because my understanding is that Russia has about 7-800k active duty (including a shitton of low morale conscripts).

[Draco-Onis]

Because polling this far out is less than worthless, as you have pointed out.

It shows a trend line which I have stated.

"The Russian hate is entirely in the Senate."

When it comes to congress yes, I am sorry should I use smaller words? the house is entirely dominated by Trump aside from a few stragglers he can easily bend them to his will more so after 2022. The senate has been pretty consistent even in republicans hands about stopping Putin.

[Elegiac]

Are you counting reservists? Because my understanding is that Russia has about 7-800k active duty (including a shitton of low morale conscripts).

The most conservative estimates as far as requirements for occupying a country necessitate about 4 million troops in Ukraine alone.

Imposing martial law while simultaneously trying to subjugate a hostile territory isn't feasible.

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Like I said; it's off topic, so either take it to the appropriate thread or keep it amongst the other stripey-socked tankies on Twitter.