1. #8021
    Immortal Poopymonster's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Neverland Ranch Survivor
    Posts
    7,121
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Fuck his feelings.

    I do agree that, if Russia is entered into martial law, Putin will realize he has bigger problems and the Ukraine invasion will slow down. That's a good point, thanks for sharing.
    Correct me if I'm wrong.
    Declaring Martial Law would have the military keeping the peace at gunpoint.
    That means the military gets to camp out in cities for a while.
    How many soldiers would be required to enforce government approved mandatory happyness?
    Granted they have a metric shitload of soldiers.
    They also have a metric "Catholic family reunion" of shitloads of people.

    How many of the people being sent to reinforce the invasion of Ukraine are diverted to help enforce happyness at home?
    Last edited by Poopymonster; 2022-03-07 at 04:30 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    Quit using other posters as levels of crazy. That is not ok


    If you look, you can see the straw man walking a red herring up a slippery slope coming to join this conversation.

  2. #8022
    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    problem is russia is just offering ukraine a slow death with these demands, no president could accept them.

    Ukraines leverage is telling them to fuck off and offering Russia a slow death. Those sanctions and military costs will be so huge, Russia will be absoltely fucked middle of the summer.
    It's a gamble but as much as I hate to say this Russia has more time than Ukraine on this, how long will united front last when the chickens come home to roost. At the moment most people see these sanctions as something affecting Russia and Ukraine but inflation, energy and gas bills are going up. A pandemic that killed 1 million Americans and still kills 2K people a day and we got "tired" of hearing about that fairly quickly.

    There's also the fallout of millions of people moving into Europe although they are fine with them since they aren't brown there will be cost associated with that. I know people want Putin to get his comeupins but in real life that barely happens bad guys win all the time.

  3. #8023
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    -snip-
    Y'all really need to realise that defeatism is not the same as being pragmatic or realistic. It's getting really tiresome.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  4. #8024
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    You'd be surprised what you can live through. Considering people like Deripaska are already begging for the war to end, we know the right people are feeling it -- even as it takes its toll on the Russian people, many of whom opposed the invasion.

    It's not about killing them. But it is about consequences for their actions. Putin is surrounded by allies he just made far less rich, as well as millions of people who he made even poorer. Will he be assassinated? Will there be a change of power? Obviously I hope so, but this is how we're doing it. If the oligarchs would rather keep Putin and allow him to choke out the civilian population, at least they'll be doing it with less comfort and less money.

    They'll survive, but this is going to hurt.

    Good.
    But it will also hurt us too and the average Joe is going to vote their wallet over something happening far away. There's a high chance Trump will win in 2024 and he will destroy the sanctions and NATO if they last that long.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Y'all really need to realise that defeatism is not the same as being pragmatic or realistic. It's getting really tiresome.
    No it's the reality of the situation there's nothing defeatist about it.

  5. #8025
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
    7+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Streets Strange by Moonlight
    Posts
    8,564
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    There's also the fallout of millions of people moving into Europe although they are fine with them since they aren't brown there will be cost associated with that. I know people want Putin to get his comeupins but in real life that barely happens bad guys win all the time.
    Dunno, tell that to Saddam, Kadafi etc.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  6. #8026
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    No it's the reality of the situation there's nothing defeatist about it.
    Nah, you're just being defeatist. As evidenced here:

    There's a high chance Trump will win in 2024
    You're not basing your 'predictions' on anything other than your personal antipathies. You don't like Biden/the Democrats, therefore Trump has a high chance of winning despite there being no evidence of such. You don't like NATO/Germany/the EU, therefore they'll capitulate to Russia despite there being no evidence of such.

    It's defeatist, and it's tiresome as hell.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2022-03-07 at 04:42 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  7. #8027
    Quote Originally Posted by Makabreska View Post
    Dunno, tell that to Saddam, Kadafi etc.
    For every Saddam and Kadafi, you have Lukashenko, XI, the North Korean dinasty, The Saudis and the list goes on. The reason Saddam and Kadafi went down is because they pissed off the wrong people in the US and for all the evils they brought forth their country is worse off because of their downfall. There's no sane person that would look at Libya now and think it's better off.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    You're not basing your 'predictions' on anything other than your personal antipathy. You don't like Biden, therefore Trump has a high chance of winning. You don't like NATO/Germany/the EU, therefore they'll capitulate to Russia.

    It's defeatist, and it's tiresome as hell.
    Have you not look at the new laws in place and the polling, Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024. Biden only won the presidency by a small margin and now republicans have the power to throw out votes. Those are facts feel free to show me where I am wrong, Trump's chances are high.

  8. #8028
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Why are the Ukrainians fighting better than many had expected?
    I think one of the things that has also lead to this remarkably asymmetric performance is that the Russia a. seemed to have some kind of plan based on an expectation that did not pan out which was that the Ukrainians would not mount a defense b. did not really seem to know why they were there at all in what was otherwise a peaceful and close neighbouring country.

    The Ukrainians on the other hand are repelling invaders which is in a way quite straight forward.

    Unfortunately I do think this means that the worst of the conflict is in fact ahead of us as the Russians get more resolved watching their buddies dying around them.
    The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.

  9. #8029
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    NY, USA
    Posts
    40,015
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopymonster View Post
    How many soldiers would be required to enforce government
    Hoo boy. I am led to believe NK has 1.6 million troops and 25 million people. Scaling that up to Russia and Ukraine both would be...twelve million troops.

    Four times what Russia currently has.

    I'm aware that's not a great answer, but I've never modeled martial law requirements before. Doesn't come up all that often.

  10. #8030
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Have you not look at the new laws in place and the polling
    Have you looked at the fact that Donald Trump is 75, in poor health, and has a mounting number of financial liabilities? Have you looked at the fact that the few competent people surrounding him that enabled his victory in 2016 are no longer with him? Have you looked at the fact that the media you consume has a vested interest in keeping you on edge by feeding you bullshit about how the end is nigh?

    Thought not. Keep it to yourself.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  11. #8031
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    NY, USA
    Posts
    40,015
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    But it will also hurt us too and the average Joe is going to vote their wallet over something happening far away.
    Honestly, this could be good for Biden. Blaming high gas costs on Putin and saying "the costs Putin has put on America are not enough to keep Russia from collapsing!" would be a misleading but effective thing to say from behind the podium.

    The damage to the US will be minimal. The damage to Russia will not be.

  12. #8032
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    phasing...
    Posts
    25,626
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    But it will also hurt us too and the average Joe is going to vote their wallet over something happening far away. There's a high chance Trump will win in 2024 and he will destroy the sanctions and NATO if they last that long.
    the economic impact on the United States will be minimal.

    Gas prices go up. It’s what they do. Plus, hating on Russia is a time-honored US political angle, Trump’s momentary Putin ass-kissing aside.



    No it's the reality of the situation there's nothing defeatist about it.
    If your concern is truly for Ukraine than you’d know them accepting anything other than complete Russian withdrawal is unacceptable.

    Because Russia is just going to do this exact same thing again otherwise, only they might actually be prepared next time.


    Bad guys win… when no one stops them, because they turn up their bellies like scared dogs hoping the other dog doesn’t rip their throat out.

    What you’re suggesting is appeasement. Pray tell have you heard of this thing that happened in the 1930s and 1940s in Europe, and how well that strategy worked to “stop bloodshed?” Spoilers, it didn’t.


    Bleed Russia for all they can be bled, so long as Putin maintains his silly little ambitions of rebuilding the USSR. Ukraine is willing to fight; Let them.

    And if you’re more concerned with gas prices or the price of wheat than an aggressive nation headed by an autocratic dictator attempting to expand his empire in Europe… that’s on you, bud.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  13. #8033
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Hoo boy. I am led to believe NK has 1.6 million troops and 25 million people. Scaling that up to Russia and Ukraine both would be...twelve million troops.

    Four times what Russia currently has.

    I'm aware that's not a great answer, but I've never modeled martial law requirements before. Doesn't come up all that often.
    Let's also remember that North Korea's population is not Russia's. North Koreans have been in an effective bubble for generations now - at no point has access to foreign media been commonplace, let alone the internet. It is a lot easier to keep that sort of population subjugated.

    Russia was a part of the global community until last week. You cannot manufacture a Juche-style personality cult overnight.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  14. #8034
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Have you looked at the fact that Donald Trump is 75, in poor health, and has a mounting number of financial liabilities? Have you looked at the fact that the few competent people surrounding him that enabled his victory in 2016 are no longer with him? Have you looked at the fact that the media you consume has a vested interest in keeping you on edge by feeding you bullshit about how the end is nigh?

    Thought not. Keep it to yourself.
    Did you look at the person running against him? we're not exactly running with Benjamin Buttons. His financial and legal liabilities are the reason he has no choice but to run for office, Trump's campaign wasn't a well oiled machine so I am not sure what delusions you are running on thinking that will be different. Trump will be Trump I am going by his continuing popularity and the fact that now all the laws favor his ascension.

  15. #8035
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    NY, USA
    Posts
    40,015
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Let's also remember that North Korea's population is not Russia's
    They also have an overwhelmingly unnecessary number of people in the army to keep them fed and therefore happy with Most Glorious Leader. In any event, I don't know of a better model, most countries aren't in a constant state of martial law to base estimates around.

  16. #8036
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Did you look at the person running against him? we're not exactly running with Benjamin Buttons. His financial and legal liabilities are the reason he has no choice but to run for office, Trump's campaign wasn't a well oiled machine so I am not sure what delusions you are running on thinking that will be different. Trump will be Trump I am going by his continuing popularity and the fact that now all the laws favor his ascension.
    No, you're going by your dislike of Biden and based on what is being fed to you by a largely sensationalist media. Same goes for your whinging about how everyone's totally going to fold and let Russia upend the international order because gas prices.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2022-03-07 at 04:57 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  17. #8037
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    the economic impact on the United States will be minimal.

    Gas prices go up. It’s what they do. Plus, hating on Russia is a time-honored US political angle, Trump’s momentary Putin ass-kissing aside.





    If your concern is truly for Ukraine than you’d know them accepting anything other than complete Russian withdrawal is unacceptable.

    Because Russia is just going to do this exact same thing again otherwise, only they might actually be prepared next time.


    Bad guys win… when no one stops them, because they turn up their bellies like scared dogs hoping the other dog doesn’t rip their throat out.

    What you’re suggesting is appeasement. Pray tell have you heard of this thing that happened in the 1930s and 1940s in Europe, and how well that strategy worked to “stop bloodshed?” Spoilers, it didn’t.


    Bleed Russia for all they can be bled, so long as Putin maintains his silly little ambitions of rebuilding the USSR. Ukraine is willing to fight; Let them.

    And if you’re more concerned with gas prices or the price of wheat than an aggressive nation headed by an autocratic dictator attempting to expand his empire in Europe… that’s on you, bud.

    Trump's hard core base strongly supports Putin the Russian hate is entirely in the senate. How long do you think Ukraine will keep the world's attention? because in the year 2022 the attention span of people is very short. It will not last years necessary for sanctions like this to force big chance in Russia, Ukrainians will fight for their country and they will continue to get outside help in terms of weapons that's about it. There's trillions of dollars at stake not to mention political ambitions, the window for Ukraine is not as large as that of Russia.

    There is a resurgence of right wing around the world people who are fine or support Putin, most people care more about their wallets than anything else. It's cute that after the pandemic you still have faith that we can take suffering together when the greater good is involved. We do the right thing when there's no choice Ukraine is not that important to most people.

  18. #8038
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Trump's hard core base strongly supports Putin the Russian hate is entirely in the senate.
    And here's why your take is bullshit.

    Polling over the last few weeks has found Republicans, like most Americans, don’t trust Putin. In an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Jan. 22-25, 15 percent of Republicans said they had a very or somewhat favorable view of Putin, similar to the 11 percent of Americans overall who said so. A plurality of Republicans (45 percent) said they had a very unfavorable view of the Russian leader. In a Morning Consult/Politico poll from last week, more Democrats (20 percent) said they strongly or somewhat approved of how Putin was handling the conflict in Ukraine than did Republicans (10 percent). And when asked in a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted Feb. 8-11 whether the U.S. should support Ukraine, support Russia or neither, only 4 percent of Republicans said “support Russia” (in line with the 5 percent of Democrats who said the same).
    And you're telling us to look at the polling?
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  19. #8039
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    No, you're going by your dislike of Biden and based on what is being fed to you by a largely sensationalist media. Same goes for your whinging about how everyone's totally going to fold and let Russia upend the international order because gas prices.
    You still haven't shown me any data to disprove me just feelings, Biden's approval rating has continued on a downward trajectory. He is getting a temporary bump thanks to Putin but that's well temporary. I dislike Biden but I did not think Trump would survive the insurrection nor that republicans would establish these laws to enable his ascent as a result among other things.

    Feel free to show me the numbers that show a different trend because it doesn't take a genius to see where we are heading. A high chance is not a guaranteed a number of things can change in 2 years.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    yeah Trump's hardcore base is 22-33% of republicans so what part of that was wrong? Did I say all republicans who vote for him are the hardcore base?

  20. #8040
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Aelia Capitolina
    Posts
    59,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    You still haven't shown me any data to disprove me just feelings
    Because polling this far out is less than worthless, as you have pointed out here:

    Biden's approval rating has continued on a downward trajectory. He is getting a temporary bump
    You're getting us off topic, so kindly take the doomerism to the appropriate threads. Thanks.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •