Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elegiac]

Are you counting reservists? Because my understanding is that Russia has about 7-800k active duty (including a shitton of low morale conscripts).

The most conservative estimates as far as requirements for occupying a country necessitate about 4 million troops in Ukraine alone.

Imposing martial law while simultaneously trying to subjugate a hostile territory isn't feasible.

-snip-

Like I said; it's off topic, so either take it to the appropriate thread or keep it amongst the other stripey-socked tankies on Twitter.

[dextersmith]

Come to think of this. With all those payment methods being cut, can Russians even pay for WoW now?

Couldn't they buy sub tokens with in game gold?

[Breccia]

Are you counting reservists?

Both countries, yes. If you're going to institute martial law on an unhappy to the point of protesting to the point of mass arrests, you call out the reserves.

[Draco-Onis]

Like I said; it's off topic, so either take it to the appropriate thread or keep it amongst the other stripey-socked tankies on Twitter.

I would think you would be on twitter doing kombaya #Ukraine and all that to keep you from their reality. Ukraine doesn't have a lot of good choices, the main thing that would make a difference and stop Putin would be for NATO to change their rules and time frame for admission and take in more countries asap. The sanctions and the attention from the world will not hold on long enough to collapse the Putin regime.

[Iphie]

The most conservative estimates as far as requirements for occupying a country necessitate about 4 million troops in Ukraine alone.

Imposing martial law while simultaneously trying to subjugate a hostile territory isn't feasible.

I understand that, but I thought Breccia meant that Russia currently has 3 million troops, and for that to be true they would need to include reservists if my understaning of current strength is correct.

Martial law AND occupying will never be feasible given the circumstances. Either there are too few in Russia or too few in Ukraine.

[JohnBrown1917]

Dunno, tell that to Saddam, Kadafi etc.

Being invaded by a big imperial power to turn the country in a far bigger hellhole is hardly helping your point.

[Makabreska]

Couldn't they buy sub tokens with in game gold?

Sure, if they are willing to spent 20% of average monthly income due to ruble going down. I literally stopped seeing Russian players in-game for a week now.

[Elegiac]

I would think you would be on twitter doing kombaya #Ukraine and all that to keep you from their reality. Ukraine doesn't have a lot of good choices, the main thing that would make a difference and stop Putin would be for NATO to change their rules and time frame for admission and take in more countries asap. The sanctions and the attention from the world will not hold on long enough to collapse the Putin regime.

We've had people claiming there wouldn't be any sanctions at all because of the financial interests. They were wrong.

You're also wrong here. There is a lot more political and financial capital riding on not letting Russia upend the international order than a year or two of slightly higher fossil fuel prices. And Ukraine is not the same as Syria or Iraq; it is in Europe's backyard and full of people that Europeans, and Americans, identify with a lot more than Syrians or Iraqis (unfortunately).

Like I said, you're letting your personal antipathies dictate your political opinions. It's tedious.

[Shadowferal]

I agree with Breccia this is OT, but I’m going with Poland’s PM over random US politicians.

Source needs checking, but;

WARSAW, Poland -- Polish government officials on Monday said that Poland has not, and will not, send its fighter jets to Ukraine to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

A deputy foreign minister, Marcin Przydacz, said in an interview on Radio Zet that: “We will not open our airports and Polish planes will not fight over Ukraine … Polish planes will not fight over Ukraine.”

But separately the government spokesman, Piotr Mueller, indicated a final decision had not been made. He said that a decision on whether to send fighter jets presents risks and is a “very delicate matter.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington was looking at a proposal under which Poland would supply Kyiv with Soviet-era fighters and in turn receive American F-16s to make up for their loss.

Poland has been less than enthusiastic about the idea, at least publicly, largely because Russia has warned that supporting Ukraine’s air force would be seen in Moscow as participating in the conflict and could create a risk of retaliation.

[Gaidax]

This is apparently the reality Easo, Gaidax and a few other pro-Russians of this thread live in. I live in a reality where "internationally recognized borders" is a sensible talking point. Time will tell.

I am really tired of this pro-Russian Gaidax bullshit.

I'm not saying anything that any half decent western analyst of note would not say. I understand this is a gamer forum and people love them memes and stronks, but in the end I can't deny reality. It's like that question about "what leverage Russia has in the talks", which is all kinds of dumb really.

Yes, people don't like me stating the obvious that sanctions will take years to put Putin in danger. And these sanctions being half measure as long as Russian energy sector is practically being unaffected (heck about to make a big buck out of this given prices spike). And that Russia holding only 1/4 of the country after 10 days as opposed 1/2 of it and having a non-0 chance of it dropping all the pretense and bombing the shit out of another 1/4 any moment - is not exactly a cause for celebration.

What exactly you want me to say? I'm pushing 40 soon, I'm not exactly some big eyed happy thoughts teen when I look at all this shit and remind myself of history part of which I felt on my own skin.

This, however, does not make me "pro-Russian". I think I have stated countless times that Putin is full of shit and needs to get bumped for this, but I can't deny reality on the ground.

[Breccia]

Couldn't they buy sub tokens with in game gold?

Again, I think that's a sealed system so yes. Of course, they need to get the gold. With payment services in Russia getting shut down, that means grinding.

In addition to what 9.2 already did.

Probably still beats being drafted and shipped to Ukraine, which has been mentioned before here as well as Syrian mercenaries.

I don't know why Yahoo Sports has this article but it does provide a simple summation of the Russia-Ukraine talks so far.

But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was "not true" that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.

"We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot," he said.

On the issue of neutrality, Peskov said: "They should make amendments to the constitution according to which Ukraine would reject any aims to enter any bloc."

He added: "We have also spoken about how they should recognise that Crimea is Russian territory and that they need to recognise that Donetsk and Lugansk are independent states. And that’s it. It will stop in a moment."

"This is not us seizing Lugansk and Donetsk from Ukraine. Donetsk and Lugansk don’t want to be part of Ukraine. But it doesn’t mean they should be destroyed as a result," Peskov said.

"For the rest. Ukraine is an independent state that will live as it wants, but under conditions of neutrality."

So yeah, Russia seems willing to destroy Ukraine if they don't voluntarily relinquish control of parts of their country. The term for this is "mugging". Also, it sure sounds like Russia admitted they went into Crimea against Ukraine's will.

Peskov said the situation in Ukraine had posed a much greater threat to Russia’s security than it had in 2014, when Russia had also amassed 150,000 troops at its border with Ukraine, prompting fears of a Russian invasion, but had limited its action to the annexation of Crimea.

"Since then the situation has worsened for us. In 2014, they began supplying weapons to Ukraine and preparing the army for NATO, bringing it in line with NATO standards," he said.

"In the end what tipped the balance was the lives of these 3 million people in Donbass. We understood they would be attacked."

Peskov said Russia had also had to act in the face of the threat it perceived from NATO, saying it was "only a matter of time" before the alliance placed missiles in Ukraine as it had in Poland and Romania.

"We just understood we could not put up with this any more. We had to act," he said.

Ah yes, the "we had to kill them before they killed us" defense. It has its time and place, to be sure, but it's something a jury tends to mull over after the perp is caught. It is not an excuse to go into another country and just take what you want.

And none of it explains the timetable. Why now? Why not during Trump, who would have just let it happen? Why did it feel so rushed, if this was an ongoing situation for years? This thread started in December.

[Ripster42]

Source needs checking, but;

WARSAW, Poland -- Polish government officials on Monday said that Poland has not, and will not, send its fighter jets to Ukraine to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

This is relating to a twitter statement that essentially came out before ukraine formally approached the US. The most recent info is, admittedly, from a US official stating that poland will xfer old jets in exchange for either buying or receiving new ones.

[Breccia]

I literally stopped seeing Russian players in-game for a week now.

To be fair, when you have to choose between "playing WoW another month" or "eat human food another month" I know where 90% of even WoW players would go.

[Draco-Onis]

We've had people claiming there wouldn't be any sanctions at all because of the financial interests. They were wrong.

You're also wrong here. There is a lot more political and financial capital riding on not letting Russia upend the international order than a year or two of slightly higher fossil fuel prices. And Ukraine is not the same as Syria or Iraq; it is in Europe's backyard and full of people that Europeans, and Americans, identify with a lot more than Syrians or Iraqis (unfortunately).

Like I said, you're letting your personal antipathies dictate your political opinions. It's tedious.

We've had people claiming the world is flat I am not sure what that has to do with me.

The sanctions are not one way street they damage people in Europe as well 1- 2 years is not enough to bring down Putin that's my point. Americans didn't identify enough with hundreds of thousands of their neighbors dying of a disease to even wear masks and turned it into a political issue.

I think your personal bias is clouding the lessons you should have learned in these past 6 years.

[Elegiac]

The sanctions are not one way street they damage people in Europe as well 1- 2 years is not enough to bring down Putin that's my point.

It is, however, enough to establish alternative lines of supply that would absolve the need to bother with Russia at all.

They need us a whole lot more than we need them. Fossil fuels can be got elsewhere. Whereas it's kind of hard to attract foreign money if you're an international pariah.

Americans didn't identify enough with hundreds of thousands of their neighbors dying of a disease to even wear masks and turned it into a political issue.

"Republicans are shitheads therefore Putin is going to get away with everything" is a terrible argument for the reasons I stated previously.

[Breccia]

The sanctions are not one way street they damage people in Europe as well

If I see someone mugging an old lady on the street and crack the mugger over the head with a baseball bat, I'll probably crack the bat and my hands will sting. Both sides will be hurt. The scope is way off.

This article is mostly about the aforementioned talks, but has two additional bits of info.

One, Ukraine doesn't sound thrilled with the "generous" offer.

Two, Russia is now at 100% commitment of their amassed invasion forces. Basically all reserves are in. If Ukraine does not suddenly surrender, the next step will be moving up more forces. We may yet see that draft.

[AntiFascistVoter]

We've had people claiming the world is flat I am not sure what that has to do with me.

The sanctions are not one way street they damage people in Europe as well 1- 2 years is not enough to bring down Putin that's my point. Americans didn't identify enough with hundreds of thousands of their neighbors dying of a disease to even wear masks and turned it into a political issue.

I think your personal bias is clouding the lessons you should have learned in these past 6 years.

Sorry, but we just can't believe the people that spent 2 years saying "But Biden will cancel Medicare ...".
Now saying "sanctions wont work".

Podcasters are terrible sources and clearly making their fans dumber. Either horsepaste levels of dumb, or close to it.

[Rasulis]

That's the WSJ 7 hours ago. Posting here for the bolded.

Looks like it is almost up to 150 now.

Several exchange/trade houses are refusing to process transactions in ruble.

Russian banks are trying to bypass Amex/MC/VISA by using China’s Union Pay. However, Union Pay is also dependent on SWIFT. What they would do under the threat of a secondary SWIFT sanction is uncertain.

Then there is the question on Russian bond payment. Both government and corporate bonds. One-third of the payment installment in March are dollar/euro only. If they try to pay with ruble, that will trigger a default.

[Endus]

The sanctions are not one way street they damage people in Europe as well

Getting tired of this apologism and excuse. What you're describing is, fundamentally, a desire to respond to violent fascist expansionism through appeasement, rather than punitive steps. And we know how completely ineffective appeasement is; we've had a horrendously explicit example in living memory.

The "harm" to "people in Europe" will basically be that gas and energy prices get a bit more expensive as their governments transition off Russian energy supplies. If that's the price to pay to prevent mass deaths of Eastern Europeans as Russia continues their expansionism, that's not a heavy price to pay. It's a monumentally callous level of indifference to whine that you'd rather keep your gas prices low and if the price is foreign genocide, you're okay with that.

If you mean the Russian people themselves being hurt by sanctions; so be it. If they don't like it, they can tear down their government. Either through election, or violent revolution. Dealer's choice, really. It isn't those issuing sanctions who are responsible for this "harm", it's the government (Putin) responsible for earning those sanctions who bears that burden.

[Draco-Onis]

It is, however, enough to establish alternative lines of supply that would absolve the need to bother with Russia at all.

They need us a whole lot more than we need them. Fossil fuels can be got elsewhere. Whereas it's kind of hard to attract foreign money if you're an international pariah.

Who is this we? it's certainly not the EU which is heavily reliant on Russia for oil and natural gas, they are not energy independent like the US. it takes more than just 1-2 years to build the infrastructure necessary to fix that level of dependence.

"Republicans are shitheads therefore Putin is going to get away with everything" is a terrible argument for the reasons I stated previously.

Then you are not reading nor learning anything from the last 6 years, it's a lesson about our attention span and the selfishness of human nature.