1. #8081
    Quote Originally Posted by Kathranis View Post
    I suppose the chatter about Sunday being a hard line for Russia to achieve objectives must have been true, given that their demands for withdrawal are in fact pretty fucking mild compared to what they were trying to take by force.

    Ceding more territory to Russia stings, no two ways about it. And it's highly likely Russia will come back for another bite in 10, 15 years, with a stronger military and revised strategy. Crimea was obviously gonna have to be ceded, but I guess how much separatist territory gets given up will be down to negotiation?

    Ukraine was never getting into NATO so that's already kind of a non-issue, and member nation or not, you can bet that the West is going to redouble their efforts to bolster and train Ukraine's military; the Kremlin's terms apparently don't make any mention of demilitarization. The EU, on the other hand, being an economic block, perhaps they have some wiggle room. The appointment of a PM is some serious bullshit. Like, between that and rewriting the constitution, Russia is trampling over the concept of Ukrainian sovereignty.

    I guess I would hope that Ukraine can negotiate those two demands down to like, an appointed Russian advisor and a nonaggression pact that bans joining a defensive bloc, but I don't know how realistic that is.


    Anyway, Ukraine doesn't really have the luxury to just dismiss these demands, unfortunately. Ukraine has far more to loose and Russia is only going to get more aggressive and less discriminate. I can't deny that I'd love to see Ukraine bleed Russia dry. They have the means to hold out longer, but, well, the cost is heavy on both sides, and civilian casualties will only increase.
    Ukraine had a non-aggression pact until 2014 when Russia broke it by annexing Crimea.

    Why exactly would Ukraine accept a non-aggression pact from Russia that is literally not worth the paper it was printed on?

    I suspect any deal that would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and/or the EU mutual defence agreement is entirely out of the question.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  2. #8082
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Corporate I understand, but the Russian govt paying out in dollars sounds beyond bizarre. I mean, yeah the dollar and euro are perfectly good moneys, I use them myself, but...government bonds from Russia?

    I'm curious to see what a government default in Russia would do, because my first guess is "nothing". Fortunately there's this article from six hours ago which I'm guessing you've read but I certainly hadn't.



    I suspect Russia won't default, because they just will refuse to acknowledge there's a problem. Citizens trying to cash in bonds will be refused and silenced. It does appear, as the article states, that most Russian bonds are in the hands of Russian people, meaning the system is mostly self-contained.

    And this is hardly the first time we've heard about it.



    While Putin will probably pretend everything is fine, he's probably also going to do three things.

    One, refuse to pay in the dollars he and his oligarch friends have stashed away. Putin has the dollars, he just wants to keep them for himself. Those bank buyups a week ago are proof enough of that. We've seen that Russia has $600 billion or so in dollars and euros, it's just not in the hands of the Russian people. And there's no reason to believe that will change.

    Two, refuse to pay out bonds to non-Russians and blame the sanctions, trying to somehow keep his country off the hook for refusing to pay a valid debt.

    Three, wait a little longer for the market on Russian bonds to bottom out, offer an insultingly small amount to people who will feel no choice exists but to take it. Then, under the assumption things eventually get better, he would win. Kind of a big assumption, and it presupposes his friends don't murder him.
    Both the Russian government and various corporate entities (oil companies, railroad, etc.) have interest payments due in March. If they don't make those payments, the bonds/coupons go into default. Although I think there is a 30-day grace period if they simply choose not to pay. My understanding is that, if they try to pay the dollar/euro only bonds/coupons with ruble, that will instantly trigger default proceeding.

    Then there is this interesting article.

    A Quirk in Russian Bonds Could Hamper Default Swaps Payout
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2022-03-07 at 06:13 PM.

  3. #8083
    EU has started to check Ukraine, Moldavia and Georgia apply. I really hope we won't take them in the EU. Economically, they are not up to the standards of EU. I am all for defending them if they get bullied though.

  4. #8084
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kathranis View Post
    *snip*
    I believe what will happen is this:

    • Crimea ceded to Russia.
    • The "republics" get autonomy within Ukraine (so practically can do whatever the fuck they want, while being technically Ukraine).
    • Ukraine will guarantee it won't join NATO (not like NATO will let it in any time next decade anyway).
    • EU demand will get off the table.
    • PM nonsense will get off the table.

    IMO, it's the least bad option for Ukraine given the situation.

    Then maybe down the road there will be some talk of Russian reparations in return for sanctions reduction.

  5. #8085
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Just as I am getting tired of people reading into it whatever they want, it's not an excuse but fact that people tend to worry more about their own immediate issues before anything else.
    You're projecting your own opinions onto everyone else. I'm not even European, but I'd rather pay more taxes and pay more for gas/energy here in Canada if it means pushing Russia back out of Ukraine both via sanctions and via Canadian military intervention (we're already supplying Ukraine with munitions). Some of us do give a shit, and you really need to stop pretending your casual indifference is a norm that should be applauded.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Basically, "I'm upset because I can't get any of my political goals achieved therefore I'm going to try and make my negative feelings infectious by beating the doomer drum."
    It's fuckin' lazy-ass weak shit. Speaking as a long-time social anarchist followed by my current liberal market socialism, I've never been in a position to expect my political goals to be achieved, in my lifetime. The best I've ever been able to hope for is for things to drift closer. I know it's possible, since that's how Tommy Douglas got Canadian universal healthcare off the ground. But even Douglas didn't expect a complete shift to democratic socialism; he was realistic about what he could achieve.

    Some of these people are idiots who thought they could just Kumbaya at a few block parties and the world would be saved. They don't want to do the work. Because this shit takes work, folks. And that doesn't mean posting shit on Twitter. It means working with elected officials and candidates, if not running for office yourself. At any level; it doesn't have to be national. If you're not doing that kind of work, you're sitting on your ass expecting someone else to fix things how you like it for you. That's lazy as fuck.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnBrown1917 View Post
    ...Yeah about those elections in Russia.
    Or how about how sanctions have never led to a revolution and them being increasingly hard the more advanced a nation is? Revolution pretty much only happens if the conditions are really, 1917 levels, terrible.
    Simply untrue. See South Africa.

    Also, I really don't care if the conditions get "bad" for Russians. They're currently far worse for Ukrainians, due to Russia's unjustified actions. If Russians don't support this shit, it's time to get off their asses and change things.


  6. #8086
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Both the Russian government and various corporate entities (oil companies, railroad, etc.) have interest payments due in March. If they don't make those payments, the bonds/coupons go into default. Although I think there is a 30-day grace period if they simply choose not to pay. My understanding is that, if they try to pay the dollar/euro only bonds/coupons with ruble, that will instantly trigger default proceeding.
    The problem is that they default and then what?

    Russia is already a financial pariah. Can't hurt them much more there. Can't take the funds out of Russia without an invasion so either stakeholders try to get access to seized/frozen foreign assets to settle the debt or their bonds simply become worthless and its a write-off.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  7. #8087
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Neither is "both sides will be hurt". At least my analogy is a closer parallel to Europe vs Russia.
    Not even close, my point was Europe will hurt too and that will have some die effects. The sanctions should not be the sole focus the other options have been slow going or not moving at all it's mostly been about sanctions.

  8. #8088
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Why exactly would Ukraine accept a non-aggression pact from Russia that is literally not worth the paper it was printed on?
    Because Russia has a lot of ammunition and they won't shy away from using it on population centers.

    And yes in case it was not obvious - any sort of agreement is likely to be a temporary thing with the whole mess heating up again half a decade to decade later. It would give both sides the time they need however and IMO Ukraine needs that time much more than Russia at the moment.

  9. #8089
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    I believe what will happen is this:

    • Crimea ceded to Russia.
    • The "republics" get autonomy within Ukraine (so practically can do whatever the fuck they want, while being technically Ukraine).
    • Ukraine will guarantee it won't join NATO (not like NATO will let it in any time next decade anyway).
    • EU demand will get off the table.
    • PM nonsense will get off the table.

    IMO, it's the least bad option for Ukraine given the situation.

    Then maybe down the road there will be some talk of Russian reparations in return for sanctions reduction.
    Pretty sure that's up to Ukraine. If they choose "NATO membership and a free, united Ukraine, Russia fucks off and pays reparations", and they're willing to die for that outcome, they should get international support in achieving those goals.

    Accepting half-measures just lets this be another victorious Russian advance into Ukraine, following on their annexation of Crimea. It's only a matter of time before Russia does this again, so any agreement is just buying a few years at best.

    There's a lot to be said for the attitude that "you can't defeat us, you can only kill us".


  10. #8090
    Banned JohnBrown1917's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    I get that I might be a bit older than the median poster on MMO-C but... no.

    First off, apartheid.

    Secondly, it's not just the sanctions. It's the sanctions on top of the fact that Ukraine is turning into another Afghanistan, and I don't mean America's foray there. Russia in the 2020s is looking increasingly similar to Russia in the late 1980s, and that is not good news for the regime in Moscow.
    Apartheid is like the only example, and that country already had a very big population that wanted those sanctions... plus it was democratic[sort off], they did not need a violent revolution, which is the only method that Russia has at the moment.

  11. #8091
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    The problem is that they default and then what?

    Russia is already a financial pariah. Can't hurt them much more there. Can't take the funds out of Russia without an invasion so either stakeholders try to get access to seized/frozen foreign assets to settle the debt or their bonds simply become worthless and its a write-off.
    Foreign bondholders could put lien on Russia's offshore holdings. Such as their foreign reserve.

    It would also cripple Russia's ability to raise funding.

  12. #8092
    Over 9000! Milchshake's Avatar
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    Speaking of global energy markets and how commodities contracts affect your local politics!

    There's a greeat untapped potential energy out there. The effort some people spend to stand with an abstracted swastika, without admitting it's just another abstracted swastika.

    Let's discuss what's happening in Russia. To put it simply, it's going full fascist. Authorities launched a propaganda campaign to gain popular support for their invasion of Ukraine and they're getting lots of it. You can see "Z" on these guys' clothes.


    "Z" is a letter that Russian Military are putting on their vehicles departing to Ukraine. Some interpret "Z" as "Za pobedy" (for victory). Others - as "Zapad" (West). Anyway, this symbol invented just a few days ago became a symbol of new Russian ideology and national identity


    Putin fanbois at home and in the diaspora putting Zs on their cars.


    Coming soon to some GOP/Tory campaign near you.

    /s

  13. #8093
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    The "harm" to "people in Europe" will basically be that gas and energy prices get a bit more expensive as their governments transition off Russian energy supplies. If that's the price to pay to prevent mass deaths of Eastern Europeans as Russia continues their expansionism, that's not a heavy price to pay. It's a monumentally callous level of indifference to whine that you'd rather keep your gas prices low and if the price is foreign genocide, you're okay with that.
    Seconded.

    I live in a country pretty completely dependent on Russia for energy, but I still wish to keep a functioning country between us and them. If that means paying more for heating, I'll bite the bullet.

  14. #8094
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    You're projecting your own opinions onto everyone else. I'm not even European, but I'd rather pay more taxes and pay more for gas/energy here in Canada if it means pushing Russia back out of Ukraine both via sanctions and via Canadian military intervention (we're already supplying Ukraine with munitions). Some of us do give a shit, and you really need to stop pretending your casual indifference is a norm that should be applauded.
    No I am going by what has happened before and why these effort don't last long term. You would rather pay more but most people cannot afford to, the only one projecting here is you up on your high horse refusing to accept those facts as you stroke your self righteousness. It's not casual indifference people need to live so they make choices based on that.

    If the world wants to stop Putin the focus needs to be on Europe becoming energy independent especially by putting nuclear energy on the table moving the timelines by 5 years of more if possible. The expansion of the EU and NATO are also things that should be focused on changing the rules so that countries can join even if Putin is using proxies to keep their borders hot. Those changes are what will make the difference long term.

  15. #8095
    Banned JohnBrown1917's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Also, I really don't care if the conditions get "bad" for Russians. They're currently far worse for Ukrainians, due to Russia's unjustified actions. If Russians don't support this shit, it's time to get off their asses and change things.
    Thje average russian can't change shit in an authortian hellhole. How are you not getting this?

    And if you want conditions to be bad enough for a revolution... then yeah, things will get as bad as they are for Ukraine right now.

  16. #8096
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Not even close, my point was Europe will hurt too and that will have some die effects. The sanctions should not be the sole focus the other options have been slow going or not moving at all it's mostly been about sanctions.
    What "dire effects"? They're certainly nowhere to the same scale as what Ukraine is actively suffering.

    What you're saying is you'd rather Ukrainians be genocided than other Europeans be, at best, mildly inconvenienced.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Because Russia has a lot of ammunition and they won't shy away from using it on population centers.
    They pretty much opened with that. And they sure don't seem to be winning any morale war by doing so.

    And yes in case it was not obvious - any sort of agreement is likely to be a temporary thing with the whole mess heating up again half a decade to decade later. It would give both sides the time they need however and IMO Ukraine needs that time much more than Russia at the moment.
    Which is why there should not be such an agreement. Why push it off to some future date and let Russia financially recover? Why not push for a resolution now?


  17. #8097
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnBrown1917 View Post
    Thje average russian can't change shit in an authortian hellhole. How are you not getting this?

    And if you want conditions to be bad enough for a revolution... then yeah, things will get as bad as they are for Ukraine right now.

    ???

    Putin has had consistent supported from the russian ppl. I think its wild ppl try to separate the ppl from the government they have supported

  18. #8098
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnBrown1917 View Post
    Thje average russian can't change shit in an authortian hellhole. How are you not getting this?
    1917 would like a word with you.

  19. #8099
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    No I am going by what has happened before and why these effort don't last long term. You would rather pay more but most people cannot afford to, the only one projecting here is you up on your high horse refusing to accept those facts as you stroke your self righteousness. It's not casual indifference people need to live so they make choices based on that.
    Most people can afford to. Again, you're talking about a mild inconvenience, here, when people are being slaughtered. You would rather not be inconvenienced, and if foreign genocide is the price that needs to be paid for that, you're okay with that.

    Plus, responsible governments have measures to protect those in need among their citizens, and that wouldn't be changing. Making the whole argument pretty damned ludicrous.


  20. #8100
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    What "dire effects"? They're certainly nowhere to the same scale as what Ukraine is actively suffering.
    I meant to put direct.

    What you're saying is you'd rather Ukrainians be genocided than other Europeans be, at best, mildly inconvenienced.
    There's no shortage of genocides that the world has been indifferent to because of mild inconvenience, the political will lasts as long as Ukraine keeps the world's attention so big changes should be made now sanctions are not it.

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