Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

If you don't think that Western powers will try to push this situation in whatever direction benefits them the most, regardless of harm to Ukraine, I think you're pretty naïve.

What do you mean by "push this situation"? I mean, Russia invaded and Western nations are sanctioning Russia while cautiously supporting Ukraine in an attempt to prevent the war from expanding or them getting involved militarily. It's shitty, but it's reality. I'm not sure what "direction" the west would push Ukraine in anyways, since they seem like they're eager to join western alliances.

All these people who saying "bring it on" who want to prolong this conflict for the sake of damaging Russia further, just need to be aware that it's the Ukrainian people who are actually bearing the burden. Your higher gas prices or wheat shortages are nothing compared to the cost of war in Ukraine.

I must have missed the "Bring it on" posts but I skipped a few pages today. Best I can see folks are fairly unified in wanting this war over and Russian troops to fuck back off to Russia.

[Elenos]

Current situation based on the ISW

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-march-7

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area on the west and the Brovary area on the east;
Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv;
Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa that will combine with an impending amphibious operation against that city; and
Russian forces are driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.

Russia warns Oil could reach 300 dollars...I don't know what to make of that though I certainly expect it would reach 200 dollars.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idUSL5N2VA5BQ

[Draco-Onis]

Russia warns Oil could reach 300 dollars...I don't know what to make of that though I certainly expect it would reach 200 dollars.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idUSL5N2VA5BQ

If secondary sanctions are imposed and Russia is forced to close wells as a result it could reach $300 per barrel. I would guess $250 is more plausible.

[Mihalik]

For russia, it will be ~10 % yearly. Bring it on i say.

I have a feeling a lot of those projections have been way too optimistic and haven't accounted for the private sector piling on. There has been an unprecedented corporate exodus/boycott hitting Russia in recent days that is completely disconnected from sanctions.

Everything from everything from entertainment, to consumer goods, law firms and financial services just straight up leaving the country overnight.

That's a lot of fucking jobs. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60631835 And this is probably just to beginning.

[Kathranis]

Bullshit. The "Western Powers" didn't ask for this. The only ones being in control about how much the Ukraine has to suffer are in the Kremlin. You're mixing up cause and effect.

This is BS. If the West didn't have geopolitical interest in Ukraine, this war would already be over. Ukraine was armed and trained by NATO nations. We aren't supplying them with materiel and intel because "invasion is wrong" or "democracy is good" or "fighting for freedom" or whatever. It's for the sake of our own Western interests.

Whether the West actually thought Russia would invade or not (their intel suggests they knew it was coming), this is the situation we're now in. I have no doubt that the US State Department would be happy to let Russia occupy and get stuck in Ukraine for a decade. On the flip side, they'd also like to further Westernize (and militarize) Ukraine, make it a stronger bulwark against Russia, and gain access to its natural resources.

These are both realistic options at this point. The former likely damages Russia more in the long run, but results in a humanitarian crisis, while the latter cedes more ground to Russia and likely just leads to another invasion in a decade or two.

In either case, Ukraine isn't going to become part of NATO, and maybe not even the EU. And they'll still be stuck in a precarious position between Russia and the West.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Current situation based on the ISW

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-march-7

A Neocon think tank? No thanks.
If anyone group is unable to learn lessons from previous military failures .... Neo-Cons are neck an neck with Neo-Soviets.


Those turnip have gotten really stale.

[Yunru]

Current situation based on the ISW

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-march-7



Russia warns Oil could reach 300 dollars...I don't know what to make of that though I certainly expect it would reach 200 dollars.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idUSL5N2VA5BQ

OPEC can just lower the prices as FU to russa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_R..._oil_price_war

[DarkAmbient]

Hopefully if the Ukrainian ambassador requests MP's don't share images from the meeting that they actually don't. And that Zelensky doesn't have to stop in the middle of his speech to ask one of them to mute their damned mics.

I assume it's being broadcast live on the news, as he's addressing the Commons, which is almost always publicly accessible. If his security detail has requested privacy he absolutely will get it.

[downnola]

This is BS. If the West didn't have geopolitical interest in Ukraine, this war would already be over. Ukraine was armed and trained by NATO nations. We aren't supplying them with materiel and intel because "invasion is wrong" or "democracy is good" or "fighting for freedom" or whatever. It's for the sake of our own Western interests.

Whether the West actually thought Russia would invade or not (their intel suggests they knew it was coming), this is the situation we're now in. I have no doubt that the US State Department would be happy to let Russia occupy and get stuck in Ukraine for a decade. On the flip side, they'd also like to further Westernize (and militarize) Ukraine, make it a stronger bulwark against Russia, and gain access to its natural resources.

These are both realistic options at this point. The former likely damages Russia more in the long run, but results in a humanitarian crisis, while the latter cedes more ground to Russia and likely just leads to another invasion in a decade or two.

In either case, Ukraine isn't going to become part of NATO, and maybe not even the EU. And they'll still be stuck in a precarious position between Russia and the West.

All you're doing here is trying to shift the blame away from Russia's revanchist foreign policy for this war. Not everything that happens in the world is the "West's" fault. Leave it to Americans to be so narcissistic and self-centered that they have to make themselves the root of all problems in the world.

[Shrouded]

Apparently the Russian ambassador to the United Nations just claimed to the Security Council that the Ukrainians are shelling themselves. I just don't understand the audacity, or even the point of lying when the rest of the world knows it's a lie. It's such a farce.

https://twitter.com/julianborger/sta...39069412491270

[downnola]

Apparently the Russian ambassador to the United Nations just claimed to the Security Council that the Ukrainians are shelling themselves. I just don't understand the audacity, or even the point of lying when the rest of the world knows it's a lie. It's such a farce.

https://twitter.com/julianborger/sta...39069412491270

They got away with the same shit in Syria for over a decade, why wouldn't it work in Ukraine? It's not like they were ever punished for it.

[jonnysensible]

the syrian rebels gassed themselves false flag!
the white helmets are terrorists!

Sorry I was doing my shackler impression, really miss the big guy

[Mihalik]

Apparently the Russian ambassador to the United Nations just claimed to the Security Council that the Ukrainians are shelling themselves. I just don't understand the audacity, or even the point of lying when the rest of the world knows it's a lie. It's such a farce.

https://twitter.com/julianborger/sta...39069412491270

They don't even bother with the bullshit anymore. It's a fucking farce.

They are failing so fucking miserably despite going full war crimes is that there's no coming back from this.

[Fugus]

the syrian rebels gassed themselves false flag!
the white helmets are terrorists!

Sorry I was doing my shackler impression, really miss the big guy

Not me, the fact that him and many like him are allowed to run roughshod over the forum and knowingly and intentionally lie and derail threads is honestly a strike against these forums and the policies governing them.

Being unintentionally wrong is one thing, but pushing stuff you know to be wrong and lying and derailing threads and getting away with it until they get a small break for breaking rules only to do it again repeatedly is another.

If you can be proven to be knowingly lying and spreading the misinformation intentionally, then they should get a permanent vacation, if not from the forums entirely, at least include a function to ban a person from posting within specific sections.

[Elenos]

A Neocon think tank? No thanks.
If anyone group is unable to learn lessons from previous military failures .... Neo-Cons are neck an neck with Neo-Soviets.


Those turnip have gotten really stale.

Oh you.

What are you still doing around? hasn't Russian banned western websites enough already?

OPEC can just lower the prices as FU to russa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_R..._oil_price_war

It won't work that easily. They could, but the question is why would they when that would cost them resources when they can just sit back and get paid more for what they are already producing.

I mean look at it from this pov: OPEC contains Algeria, Iran and Venezuela, do you think those countries are interested in standing against Russia and helping the US and EU keep their oil prices low?

Let me blunt in saying this: The economic issues we are going to see soon do not have a magic bullet to them. Cutting Russia from the global oil market will have gigantic consequences for Western Economies. In my country the price of gasoline has gone up by almost 50%.

[Forogil]

This is BS. If the West didn't have geopolitical interest in Ukraine, this war would already be over. Ukraine was armed and trained by NATO nations. We aren't supplying them with materiel and intel because "invasion is wrong" or "democracy is good" or "fighting for freedom" or whatever. It's for the sake of our own Western interests.

It's both as those interests are linked, as you seem to ignorant of.

People in Europe both want to protect our own democracies from an imperialistic Russia and want Ukraine to continue the path towards democracy - free from an imperialistic Russia. Russia has invaded Ukraine after threatening military-technical actions and has threatened military-technical actions against other countries, which logically suggest that other countries are in line for invasion; the past, current and potential future invasions from Russia are wrong.

[Corvus]

Sounds like McDonalds and Coka Cola are finally bowing to pressure and leaving Russia.

And Russia seems to have lost yet another major general, this one near Kharkiv.

[PhaelixWW]

Oh you.

What are you still doing around? hasn't Russian banned western websites enough already?

Are you confusing @Slacker76 for @Shalcker?

[Gaidax]

It's both as those interests are linked, as you seem to ignorant of.

People in Europe both want to protect our own democracies from an imperialistic Russia and want Ukraine to continue the path towards democracy - free from an imperialistic Russia. Russia has invaded Ukraine after threatening military-technical actions and has threatened military-technical actions against other countries, which logically suggest that other countries are in line for invasion; the past, current and potential future invasions from Russia are wrong.

Ehhhhh...

Ukraine is and always was a convenient buffer zone for both sides and it seems like did its job well here. US is very happy, because Russia got bogged down in this shit for years + Europe running to NATO/US. This will be needed in the actual showdown of the century with China.

Europe is fucked with extra refugees crisis and severe energy problems. Ukraine is sacrificed for geopolitical wins, as it was intended really. Russia is also fucked, but brought it on itself with this mistake.

China and Turkey without a doubt will get some wins out of this. Turkey will use this opportunity to cozy up to West a bit to fix their economy and China will obviously have Russia and its energy in its pocket with increasingly disproportionate relationship.

Save the "defenders of justice and freedom" crap for the kids.

[jonnysensible]

Sounds like McDonalds and Coka Cola are finally bowing to pressure and leaving Russia.

And Russia seems to have lost yet another major general, this one near Kharkiv.

the mcdonalds theory of peace got put to bed anyway