Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Magnagarde]

Right, I knew the 3 million figure includes the reservists, but in the scenario where they'd draft 50 million extra people they'd be bleeding dry in days due to no one doing any work. This isn't Valhalla or Cadia.

Cadia broke before the guard did! Will Ukraine or did it already?

[Cynep]

Russians are 50km south of Zaporizhzhia, and very close to Slavjansk and Kramatorsk. In north units have appeared near Kiev's eastern suburbs, due to all the encircling and bypassing. Donbas frontline, especially in Lugansk region is being pushed back daily.

Where is the issue, again?

P.S.
I tend to use this one https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/vi...Ukraine/091194

I am really tired of this pro-Russian Gaidax bullshit.

I'm not saying anything that any half decent western analyst of note would not say. I understand this is a gamer forum and people love them memes and stronks, but in the end I can't deny reality. It's like that question about "what leverage Russia has in the talks", which is all kinds of dumb really.

I called you both pro-Russians because now is the equivalent of autumn 1941 and you, among some other lesser posters, are suggesting that USSR should surrender and give something to Germany, to avoid more destruction. I mean no shit there'll be more destruction, but the writing's on the wall for 1945. Wake me up when the mighty Russia takes Poltava.

Ukrainians are much like Russians, they're also resilient people, but instead of 300+ years of being the Empire they have about 500 years of being the oppressed. The spirit of "indestructibility" (yep this word is used repeatedly), both sorrowful and defiant at the same time, permeates Ukrainian literature, folk song, all their culture. They can take more than you can.

So, while yeah, after murdering children I wouldn't say it's impossible for the Russian invaders to add destruction of pre-Mongol architecture to their crime list, there wasn't a century in Ukrainian history when at least part of their land was in ruins. It's in their ancestral soul to live and fight through that. But how will Russians explain to themselves that they're the aggressors now, and keep destroying their brothers?

There will be peace talks in the end, and it's either agreeing to "internationally recognized borders", or sanctions will keep putting Russia deeper back into the 20th century. Remember, the West benefits immensely from Russia being sold out again after Putin's fall like it was in 1990s.

[Khaza-R]

Personally, to me the loss of the food supply for the Middle Eastern and African countries is a more pressing issue than oil/gas. Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Tunisia depend on grains from Ukraine.

Indeed. From what've heard food has already doubled in price in Syria. Not good when many people already couldn't afford food and were standing in line for hours for subsided bread and meals.

[Cynep]

Seeing various reports on social media suggesting Russia just finished encircling Ukrainian forces in Dontestk and Luhansk region, creating a cauldron or being very close to doing so.

If those reports hold up, it means a substantial number of Ukrainian forces are going to be encircled or they have to flee to Dnipro, which is a tall order over open fields targeted by Russian artillery and jets.

About an hour ago Russians were shooting at least 2 kinds of artillery from southern Donetsk, as they do every morning and several times over the day. This means there are still Ukrainians within their reach. Would that be the bottom of the cauldron you're speaking of?

[Azadina]

Speaking of propaganda, Russia lines up children with terminal cancer in the shape of a Z to... Uh... Support(?) their troops abroad.

How anyone thought that this was a good idea is beyond me, but I have a certain amount of morals, so maybe I'm just not built to get it.

As if there was a low bar they couldn't crawl under. Disgusting. Gotta appreciate the irony of the symbolism though. "Hey Z, death is coming; SOON" how appropriate. I do support the message sent to the troops.

[Zaydin]

Any chance they complained about the invasion of their territory for extra irony?

Yes. /10char

[Adam Jensen]

Two top ranking generals in one week.

I'm not so sure the Russians have that great of an army now, given how poorly they've executed this invasion.

[Corvus]

Two top ranking generals in one week.

I'm not so sure the Russians have that great of an army now, given how poorly they've executed this invasion.

They lost a couple in Syria too. Russian generals have to be a little more hands on given the way they are structured, which comes with higher risks.

One of those two is reportedly the nephew of the Chief of the Army as well.

[Kaleredar]

Two top ranking generals in one week.

I'm not so sure the Russians have that great of an army now, given how poorly they've executed this invasion.

I mean, you gotta think... when was the last time Russia flexed its military muscles? Let alone successfully?


Say what you will about the US' tenure in the middle east (for example, that it was bad, extremely unnecessary, and an enormous waste of both money and lives) but I believe that was an ultimate failure of goals and overarching mission rather than any particular step being poorly executed unto itself. And that was largely begun coming off of a tremendous upswell of patriotic energy and an enormous cash infusion into the US military.

Meanwhile? Russia has fumbled this thing largely from day one, and their ultimate goals in the Ukraine are similar to the nebulous things that the US wanted to achieve the middle east... eliminating hostiles, subduing the population (in one way or another) and overall establishing a let's say "sympathetic" government and society within the region. The US threw an enormous amount of patriotic energy, manpower, battle-tested military professionals, the best military technology in the world, and trillions of dollars at it and ultimately failed. What does Russia hope to achieve with disgruntled and disheartened soldiers, failing technology decades old, incompetent leadership, and an economy vanishing before their eyes?

[PhaelixWW]

I mean, you gotta think... when was the last time Russia flexed its military muscles? Let alone successfully?

Say what you will about the US' tenure in the middle east (for example, that it was bad, extremely unnecessary, and an enormous waste of both money and lives) but I believe that was an ultimate failure of goals and overarching mission rather than any particular step being poorly executed unto itself. And that was largely begun coming off of a tremendous upswell of patriotic energy and an enormous cash infusion into the US military.

Meanwhile? Russia has fumbled this thing largely from day one, and their ultimate goals in the Ukraine are similar to the nebulous things that the US wanted to achieve the middle east... eliminating hostiles, subduing the population (in one way or another) and overall establishing a let's say "sympathetic" government and society within the region. The US threw an enormous amount of patriotic energy, manpower, battle-tested military professionals, the best military technology in the world, and trillions of dollars at it and ultimately failed. What does Russia hope to achieve with disgruntled and disheartened soldiers, failing technology decades old, incompetent leadership, and an economy vanishing before their eyes?

I mean, it wasn't all that long ago that we had some notable Russian posters here responding to the US exit from Afghanistan with massive, overt criticism. They laid it on thick about how "bungled" planning resulted in so much chaos, about military hardware left behind...

Now it's like: "Care to revisit those statements, tovarisch?"

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

From my solar panels?

So from Xinjiang coal and forced labor then.

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Personally, to me the loss of the food supply for the Middle Eastern and African countries is a more pressing issue than oil/gas. Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Tunisia depend on grains from Ukraine.

Yeah the way things are headed we should brace ourselves for Arab Spring 2.0, even more wars and famines over there, and Migrant Crisis XL...

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To really help Yemen, Saudi Arabia just needs to be put under the same pressure that Russia is.

Add in the UAE in the lot as well...

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Saudis couldn't give less of a flying fuck about Yemen or Lebanon for that matter. Hell, they've been starving Yemen intentionally.

Add to that that OPEC was asked to pump more oil to stabilize markets. They roundly refused. They are fucking making a bank on this.

Yes, but given the precedents, shutting them out of SWIFT and banning their trade would have some effects, especially given how they are much much more dependent on petrodollars flowing for their social stability.

[Gaidax]

I called you both pro-Russians because now is the equivalent of autumn 1941 and you, among some other lesser posters, are suggesting that USSR should surrender and give something to Germany, to avoid more destruction.

Well then get your haughty flames in check, me not exactly being on the memey cheery side does not mean I am some Putin's lover.

I don't "suggest" shit, I simply put things in their actual places instead of fanning up some memes and illusions.

[Yunru]

A bit of western propaganda translated:

The mother of an 11-year-old hero who crossed the Slovak border on his own: 'Out of desperation, I put him on a train'

The mother of a barely 11-year-old Ukrainian boy, who has traveled more than a thousand kilometers on his own and crossed the border into Slovakia, revealed that despair led her to make the difficult decision to leave her child on a risky journey. She put him on the train in Zaporozhye. She could not leave on her own because she is in poor health and has to take care of her disabled mother. She also said she is a widow and has other children.

The mother of a barely 11-year-old Ukrainian boy, who traveled more than a thousand kilometers to Slovakia on his own, came forward. He had with him only a plastic bag with some basic necessities and a passport, and on his hand was written the telephone number of his relatives in Bratislava.

His story, just one of nearly two million Ukrainian refugee stories now, has moved many, and he has been hailed as the hero of the evening by the Slovak Interior Ministry. Now, his mother, Julija Piseckaja, has revealed in the video what led her to the difficult decision to leave the child alone on a risky path.

She put him on a train in Zaporozhye, near a nuclear power plant seized by Russian forces on Friday. She could not leave on her own because she is in poor health and has to take care of her disabled mother. "I am a widow and have other children. I would like to thank the Slovak border authorities and the volunteers who took care of my son and helped him cross the border. I am grateful to you for saving my child's life. There are people with big hearts in your small country. , "she added.

Her son’s story circled the world after the Slovak Interior Ministry posted it on Facebook. They wrote that “with his smile, fearlessness and determination worthy of a true hero” he won the hearts of all. They made sure he was warm, fed him and provided him with food and drink for the last part of his trip - to relatives in Bratislava.



Yep, lets totaly send just children in other countrys, so you dont have to deal with them. If the parent cared, she would flee with a whole family.

https://www.24ur.com/novice/tujina/m...a-na-vlak.html

[Corvus]

You obviously don't know history. Kids much younger than that got sent away by themselves in previous wars.

[Easo]

Evacuations via local ceasefires are happening again, so far it's been quiet.

Two million have left Ukraine now.

Venezuela and Maduro are being pressed right now by USA to lessend the ties with Russia in exchange for some sanction reductions. Plus he himself talked some blah blah about internal dialogue in the country with everyone. Welcome to realpolitik.

Also if you will notice a lot of the companies leaving Russia are not really leaving it, but pausing their work and still paying the workers - read, everyone is waiting for the war to end to understand what happens now.

Well, your posts are all alarmism and defeatism in the face of Big Bad Putin, so, yes.

Gas prices are at a high and staying there...while Putin is watching oil companies flee in disgust. Still not $200. So no, I don't see $300 until he cuts off the supply entirely and loses access to the high prices. Let him. It'll be hilarious.

My posts are about people like you just handwaving everything away. Look at all the recent "we must cut off Russian gas" announcements actually not cutting of anything and backpedalling about it, because as repeatedly explained in this thread - Europe just can't do this on a snap of fingers right now, it will take years and years of slow and gradual process.
So for the third time, ready to pay for half of Europe?

About an hour ago Russians were shooting at least 2 kinds of artillery from southern Donetsk, as they do every morning and several times over the day. This means there are still Ukrainians within their reach. Would that be the bottom of the cauldron you're speaking of?

Where is the southern front? What happened in Lugansk region? With or without cauldrons there is slow but constant retreat. Do you think the whole ATO formation is gonna stay in shelling range of Donetsk for long, considering Russians are within reach of Kramatorsk?

I called you both pro-Russians because now is the equivalent of autumn 1941...

Get real, you are going to keep living in the DNR for foreseeable future, no matter how the war ends.

[Jessicka]

Saudis couldn't give less of a flying fuck about Yemen or Lebanon for that matter. Hell, they've been starving Yemen intentionally.

Add to that that OPEC was asked to pump more oil to stabilize markets. They roundly refused. They are fucking making a bank on this.

Well market stability, and energy independence and security are starting to focus minds in Europe about getting off hydrocarbons. It’ll take years of course though many plans were already in place ready to be brought forward. But if it takes the threat of war with Russia to get the lunatic right on board with it then whatever. Just seems weird that the end of the world wasn’t as big an issue as stagflation is to them.

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You obviously don't know history. Kids much younger than that got sent away by themselves in previous wars.

Seems quite a common theme in this one that the kids get sent away while their parents have to stay because they’re caring for their own elderly parents who can’t be evacuated.

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Two top ranking generals in one week.

I'm not so sure the Russians have that great of an army now, given how poorly they've executed this invasion.

Well Chechnya took years and was won largely by displacing people. They assumed the same strategy in Syria.

Russia has some really nice kit, but they have a very old fashioned attitude toward actually paying for training anyone to use it properly. Not exactly an uncommon experience in many workplaces. So they make up the difference with conscripts.

If they literally stopped with the conscripts and used the money to train their professional units properly, things would look very different. But they just won’t because they think numbers and tanks will always win the day, in spite of that not being the case since about 1982.

[Breccia]

My posts are about people like you just handwaving everything away.

No. Your posts have been about defending Russia, excusing Russia, or claiming we can't leave Russia because Russia is too important. Multiple other posters have called you out. You asked if this was a game to me, it is, the game is called "How Much Are Civilian Lives Worth?" and so far I'm winning by a score of "but my heating bills!" to "I refuse to say Russia has bought the right to commit mass murder".

[Mihalik]

Yep, lets totaly send just children in other countrys, so you dont have to deal with them. If the parent cared, she would flee with a whole family.

There's stupid...and there's whatever your take was....I'm really hoping it was just very poorly placed sarcasm.

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Well Chechnya took years and was won largely by displacing people.

Chechnya and Ukraine are wildly different beasts. One was a landlocked break away region with a population of around 1.5 million. Kyiv alone has twice the population...Ukraine is a country of 40+ million with thousands of kilometres of borders shared with friendly countries.

I do get the impression tho that Putin legit thought he can just drive into Ukraine with minimal to no resistance, put some riot police in the streets then install a Ukrainian Kadyrov to rule for him, while the West and the world will write some strongly worded protests, shrug and carry on.

I honestly don't see what Putin's plan B is here.

[Easo]

Look who showed up. Should have stayed in prosecution...

No. Your posts have been about defending Russia, excusing Russia, or claiming we can't leave Russia because Russia is too important. Multiple other posters have called you out. You asked if this was a game to me, it is, the game is called "How Much Are Civilian Lives Worth?" and so far I'm winning by a score of "but my heating bills!" to "I refuse to say Russia has bought the right to commit mass murder".

You are so obnoxious. I am saying take this seriously or suffer the consequences. Every single thing you have done is chest beating about how we (who is this we, USA, the least impacted of all?) are one sidedly destroying Russian economy easily. Fucking ridiculous.
Oh, and you have avoided anything regarding prices this winter or what is to come, because clearly - lalala land is real, just like the posters who think that solar panels are going to cut it.

YEARS. Once more, YEARS, not whatever bs immediate effect of Russia collapsing you believe in.

[Easo]

Evacuation corridors are generally holding so far.

Dunno if already posted, but here is a 60 year old grandpa from Edinburg as a volunteer in Ukraine:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/29270

Your future telling abilities is the point? You think Russia is in a better spot than those imposing sanctions?

No, I do not see the future, same as Breccia, but he clearly insists that he does know what will happen and that is fricking ridiculous. I am so fucking tired of someone in Murica (and he is from there, IIRC) talking about how they have enough cash to weather anything while pretending to ignore that half of Europe does not (hello, who forgot about Covid forcing to spend reserves and taking loans to keep economies afloat?).

Russia is almost guaranteed to not be in better spot, but they have some chance of surving more or less intact (no winnings, that's fantasy scenario). Regardless, we will know only after few years at best. Not now. And for now... we need a reasonable solution to the skyhigh natural gas prices, oil, metals, and so on. That solution is goverments conjuring money up from somewhere and injecting it into economy, likely subsidizing fuel prices. Otherwise you will see mass protests. Will our dear posters call them Russian tools, bots, shills as well?