Russian invasion of Ukraine

[DarkAmbient]

I guess that's how Zelenskyy can sell a deal to the Ukrainians: "NATO refused to help. It's clear they don't want us, and so we don't want to join them. We will remain independent."

[Skulltaker]

I don't care what Germans think. Trump was right - on cold, hard facts and there is no getting around that.

We don't care what you think either. Or Trump. Germans have no love for unqualified loudmouthed fools. And no, he wasn't.

[MCMLXXXII]

Your buddy needs to be smarter with his consumption then. He's clearly trying to keep every inch of the house warm at all times, or he's living in a much larger house than claimed.

He uses 110 cubic meters a month, that's about 50 under an average three person household. His thermostat is always on 16 degrees. He and the kids always wear sweaters inside. The house is poorly insulated. He wants to move to another house but is on a 7 year waiting list.

[Gaidax]

So lets go help bomb and starve the Yemeni to help the Ukrainian that are being bombed...

We're not bombing 'em we just close our eyes while slurping on that oil. Might also open a tab for some journalists while at it, not our fault they all stand in a fire.

I hear we're about to be on first name basis with Nicolas as well.

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I guess that's how Zelenskyy can sell a deal to the Ukrainians: "NATO refused to help. It's clear they don't want us, and so we don't want to join them. We will remain independent."

No, he can sell a deal to Ukrainians by stating the obvious that nobody rushed to invite Ukraine to NATO even before this mess began, which is the reality.

Then a decade or two down the road things may change, but for now - that's the easiest thing to "give up".

[PhaelixWW]

No, he can sell a deal to Ukrainians by stating the obvious that nobody rushed to invite Ukraine to NATO even before this mess began, which is the reality.

That's not the way NATO works and he knows it. There are requirements.

[bufferunderrun]

I guess that's how Zelenskyy can sell a deal to the Ukrainians: "NATO refused to help. It's clear they don't want us, and so we don't want to join them. We will remain independent."

That is the only way out Putin will get crimea and the donbass and the rest of Ukraine will become a puppet state like belarus and in a few months all the european nation with france, Germany and uk will start rushing to remove sanctions and restart their business with putin.

[Corvus]

That is the only way out Putin will get crimea and the donbass and the rest of Ukraine will become a puppet state like belarus and in a few months all the european nation with france, Germany and uk will start rushing to remove sanctions and restart their business with putin.

There won't be a puppet state. The Ukrainians hate the Russians too much now and it would take half a million troops to occupy it.

And after the war crimes committed the sanctions will be in place a long time.

[PhaelixWW]

The Guardian: US congressional leaders reach bipartisan deal for $13.6bn in aid for Ukraine and European allies

Congressional leaders in the US reached a bipartisan deal early this morning to provide $13.6bn to help Ukraine and European allies, reports the Associated Press.

President Joe Biden originally requested $10bn for military, humanitarian and economic aid, but the backing from both parties was so strong that the figure climbed to $12bn on Monday and $13.6bn yesterday.

“We’re going to support them against tyranny, oppression, violent acts of subjugation,” Biden said at the White House.

Party leaders are hoping to get the 2,741-page measure through the House today and the Senate by the end of the week, but the timing of the latter remains unclear.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

We're not bombing 'em we just close our eyes while slurping on that oil. Might also open a tab for some journalists while at it, not our fault they all stand in a fire.

I hear we're about to be on first name basis with Nicolas as well.

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No, he can sell a deal to Ukrainians by stating the obvious that nobody rushed to invite Ukraine to NATO even before this mess began, which is the reality.

Then a decade or two down the road things may change, but for now - that's the easiest thing to "give up".

IIRC, at least at the beginning, the Saudi intervention was heavily reliant on US logistical if not tactical support (ammo of course, but also air refueling and probably AWACS, similar to how the French needed American assistance for their operation in Libya).

[Gaidax]

That is the only way out Putin will get crimea and the donbass and the rest of Ukraine will become a puppet state like belarus and in a few months all the european nation with france, Germany and uk will start rushing to remove sanctions and restart their business with putin.

Crimea is a done deal really. It's pretty much effectively Russian already and it's not going anywhere.

In my personal opinion, the only open question is what will be of Donbass and I bet this is the actual blocker right now in said negotiations or at the very least will be one.

Maybe Ukraine will still somehow retain it in Ukraine, but then Easo did make a good point that after Russia recognized them as "independent" they can't really publlcly walk back on that. At most they could probably have the "independent" DNR/LNR make some sham vote to be autonomous part of Ukraine or at least not join Russia outright officially.

I imagine in the end there will be some sort of deal there, I bet that Putin would like to get this over with as well before it becomes another Afghanistan/Chechnya.

[PACOX]

NATO have done as much as they can without starting world war 3 and a nuclear exchange. There is no doubt they want to but can't.

Pretty sure Ukraine is greatful. Ukraine is also in this mess because of the feud between NATO and Russia. NATO isn't responsible for the actions of a mad man but certain NATO members used Ukraine as a pawn to agitate the situation knowing what could possibly happen. No matter what, NATO can't and won't put boots on the ground Ukraine. Some members took a more realistic approach. Russia is not going to back down short of some sort of buffer zone in the area.

Ukraine gets hurt the most as both sides are willing to eat the financial costs and not even fighting on their own soil. So Zelensky has a very complex and tough situation ahead of him where he has to put Ukraine before the interests of NATO and Russia.

[Gaidax]

And after the war crimes committed the sanctions will be in place a long time.

I find this comment pretty funny seeing how Maduro and MBS are set to become our best pals in literally a matter of days.

Sanctions will stay for as long as the geopolitical situations calls for it. Who knows maybe tomorrow US will need Russia for XYZ and will make yet another "times change" moment there.

[Azadina]

Ouch, this morning I had to fill up my car € 2,43 per litre. So my buddy can switch suppliers. He now buys from Eneco, which prices I shared yesterday. But if he switches to Essent, he's going to pay € 576,-. And that isn't annual, that is per MONTH.

I know we talked the prices and all before, but still, there's just no way someone would blow 600 a month on just heating. For anything less than castle or mansion. And you're saying they use 2/3 of average? So, what, people on average blow 800 a month? More than my pricy rent from private sector that includes heating and water.

Nah, something is off, terribly.

Oh, and speaking of terrible insulation, the apartment complex I live in was made in '29. Windows are original, so nearly 100 years old. I have to aluminum tape them shut for winter times. His place can't possibly be worse insulated, or unfixable with simple tricks.

[Corvus]

Pretty sure Ukraine is greatful. Ukraine is also in this mess because of the feud between NATO and Russia. NATO isn't responsible for the actions of a mad man but certain NATO members used Ukraine as a pawn to agitate the situation knowing what could possibly happen. No matter what, NATO can't and won't put boots on the ground Ukraine. Some members took a more realistic approach. Russia is not going to back down short of some sort of buffer zone in the area.

Ukraine gets hurt the most as both sides are willing to eat the financial costs and not even fighting on their own soil. So Zelensky has a very complex and tough situation ahead of him where he has to put Ukraine before the interests of NATO and Russia.

Bollocks. This is entirely on Putin. Ukraine couldn't join NATO even if they wanted so there was zero need for a war. Trying to blame NATO is merely repeating Kremlin propoganda.

[bufferunderrun]

There won't be a puppet state. The Ukrainians hate the Russians too much now and it would take half a million troops to occupy it.

And after the war crimes committed the sanctions will be in place a long time.

They don’t need occupation crimea is already in their hand and donbass will the rest will abide to putin request without someone else direct intervention with boots on the ground.

[PACOX]

Crimea is a done deal really. It's pretty much effectively Russian already and it's not going anywhere.

In my personal opinion, the only open question is what will be of Donbass and I bet this is the actual blocker right now in said negotiations or at the very least will be one.

Maybe Ukraine will still somehow retain it in Ukraine, but then Easo did make a good point that after Russia recognized them as "independent" they can't really publlcly walk back on that. At most they could probably have the "independent" DNR/LNR make some sham vote to be autonomous part of Ukraine or at least not join Russia outright officially.

I imagine in the end there will be some sort of deal there, I bet that Putin would like to get this over with as well before it becomes another Afghanistan/Chechnya.

If I was Ukraine I wouldn't want Donbas back. It's tainted. It was rough before and will only be worse after. Cut it off, help people who want out, and let them deal with Putin.

Donbas was already written off early as people figured that's how the Russians would go. 'Predictions' flew out the window when did a full Invasion so it's really hard to say what talks might look like. The move was questionable even as a ruthless marauder.

[KrayZ33]

I don't care what Germans think. Trump was right - on cold, hard facts and there is no getting around that.

Public polling, lol.
Lmfao, even.

That was super easy for Trump to say, using made up numbers and typical Trump lies, and was like ignoring 10 years of EU-politics.
The same discussion was held 1-2 decades earlier.
EU needs the gas.
When Poland was against North Stream 1, Russia said they would suspend gas deliveries altogether and not much later, the thing was built. Same thing with North Stream 2, which he was arguing against.

It's as if Trump just realized that gas and oil is very important for the EU and we need lots of it. 20 years later than anyone else, that is.
Renewables don't work without it.

And it's not like the total quantity would even increase for Germany. It would simply become cheaper for them and Poland and others would lose out on money due to that. It's not like Poland actually cared about Germany's infrastructure or anything. For Poland it's a loss of income.
Or the US, for that matter, for the US it was all about not giving Russia any money as they are rival nations.

[Gaidax]

If I was Ukraine I wouldn't want Donbas back. It's tainted. It was rough before and will only be worse after. Cut it off, help people who want out, and let them deal with Putin.

Donbas was already written off early as people figured that's how the Russians would go. 'Predictions' flew out the window when did a full Invasion so it's really hard to say what talks might look like. The move was questionable even as a ruthless marauder.

Ukraine can't just casually cut off chunk of their country, because Russia decided to make a pigsty out of it. It would be a political suicide for current government and last thing Ukraine needs on top of it all is government collapse and political instability.

Even Crimea will be a hard pill to swallow already, despite it effectively being Russia already and there is not walking back on that.

Yes, these "republics" are tainted and it will be a trouble for years to come even if it stays part of Ukraine. But just giving up on that for free is not an option either.

[PhaelixWW]

If I was Ukraine I wouldn't want Donbas back. It's tainted. It was rough before and will only be worse after. Cut it off, help people who want out, and let them deal with Putin.

Yes, but very likely the main goal for Putin was never Ukraine as a whole, anyway. It was probably always Donbas, Crimea, and a southern land bridge between them.

That gives him (and deprives Ukraine of) access to the relatively untapped oil reserves in those regions as well as the port of Sevastopol.




Taking Odessa would be the next goal, and the entirety of Ukraine would be the stretch goal.

[PACOX]

Bollocks. This is entirely on Putin. Ukraine couldn't join NATO even if they wanted so there was zero need for a war. Trying to blame NATO is merely repeating Kremlin propoganda.

No. NATO knows Ukraine is a red line for Russia. We don't need to go into why because that topic has been exhausting. But knowing that, some members of NATO still teased the idea to who would ever listen. Depending on who was doing the teasing it was to agitate Russia or clout. Those people are guilty of messing with a paranoid state.

Russia takes the most blame because even if teased, all the evidence in the world shows that Ukraine was nowhere near becoming part of NATO. There was absolutely no threat to the red line being crossed when Russia invaded.

Ukraine is the victim of being caught in between NATO and Russian politics. Moreso US-Russian politics - even NATO members are feeling the repercussions of some Cold War nonsense that didn't need to happen.

Zelensky inhereted much of this mess from his predecessor and started to see how Ukraine was truly viewed and valued by both sides.