Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dextersmith]

Dunno if you guys saw it yet, but an Irishman apparently rammed his truck through the gates of the Russian embassy in Ireland due to being enraged by images coming out of Ukraine.

Without a shred of self-awareness, the Russian embassy whined about the unprovoked attack on its territory.

I imagine the driver is going to be getting free drinks for a while at any bar he goes to.

Comedy at its best.

[Saradain]

The term is "hostage". Or sometimes "Helsinki Syndrome" after Helsinki, Sweden.

It is true what you're saying, revolutions are actually fairly rare. If, hypothetically, every single Russian civilian grabbed a stool leg or axe handle and stormed the govt buildings, it'd be over in a day. There's a reason that hasn't happened, most of which is "it's not that bad yet". And I'm sure some believe Putin's narrative about Ukraine was so dangerous Russia had to start a war to avoid Ukraine starting a war. The economic beating they're taking now and will take for a while yet, yes I am still talking about dropped ruble but also other things like the upcoming default, might not be enough to push them over the edge. If Putin's invasion ends in a dismal failure, the loss of thousands of, apparently, drafted Russians sent into a war they weren't prepared for and didn't believe in, I'd think that would help, too. But in the end, I think it's more likely one of Putin's up-until-the-gunshot allies will decide it's time to go before torches and pitchforks fill the street.

Putin is likely hoping that his chokehold on sources of information that aren't Putin will help. He is probably right, I just hope not by much. But at least until recently Russia was able to see how the rest of the world was working, and will remember that for some time yet. They won't instantly forget, for example, that other countries have things like "food" and "running water" over a few weeks.

???

/10chars

[Breccia]

So the russian comms are fucked.

Ukraine: Russian military's own encrypted phones impacted after destroying 3G/4G towers, allowing comms to be intercepted

Not that 100% of Ukraine's news is 100% accurate...but I would totally believe that Russia's poorly-planned invasion, after intentionally destroying cell towers, looked at their phones and said "Oh, right. Fuck."

The military was forced to use the unencrypted lines of communication after their own attacks on 3G towers broke the Russian government-built 'Era cryptophone' that was meant to be used to communicate.

The security failure allowed Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency to confirm that Russian general Vitaly Gerasimov, chief of staff of the 41st Army, was killed.

This line is why I used this source. It's a twofer.

In an intercepted phone call, independently confirmed by fact-checking group Bellingcat, two apparent Russian FSB officers discuss the death of the general outside of Kharkiv.

“In the call, you hear the Ukraine-based FSB officer ask his boss if he can talk via the secure Era system. The boss says Era is not working,” Bellingcat executive director Christo Grozev said on Twitter.

“Era is a super expensive cryptophone system that [Russia’s defense ministry] introduced in 2021 with great fanfare. It guaranteed [to] work ‘in all conditions’.”

However, "the idiots tried to use the Era cryptophones in Kharkiv, after destroying many 3G cell towers and also replacing others with stingrays," Grozev continued. "Era needs 3G/4G to communicate.

The Russian army is equipped with secure phones that can't work in areas where the Russian army operates."

Obviously, the Russian warmongers are destroying Ukraine communications for the usual reasons you cripple an enemy, but also, this will reduce the information they get from the outside world. News like "the invasion is going poorly because the Russian invasion was planned by corrupt idiots who blew up the cell towers they themselves needed".

The best one ive heard so far is a russian soldier calling up his wife and telling her he pillaged 2 fur coats

Did he keep one? Rumor has it they were sent in there without beds.

[JohnBrown1917]

I have no interest in national expansionism and my political leaders don't either. So it's not a problem.

I can see your from the US, but I know you're being dishonest by forgetting about Iraq and Libya.
....Or just US interests in Imperialism is general

[Breccia]

???

It's a line from Die Hard, done in satire.

[Kuntantee]

It's clear you're not arguing in good faith at this point.

First, if you keep reducing the discussion to an individual level, I will just ignore you, habibi.

We're not talking about predictions. We're talking about an analysis of current capacity and the ability to ramp up said capacity. Moreover; saying "Ukraine was a lot harder to subjugate than expected even with an open land border" is evidence against your insistence that China can just magically steamroll Taiwan.

The predictions about Ukraine was also about the current capacity of Russia. China can always boost their ramp up if they really want it. I did not said China will stream roll Taiwan. I said two things

- China is taking note on how modern conventional wars are fought
-- Importance of external supplies and supply lines
-- Estimating enemies and your own strength and the impact of a green and rusty army
- China is also taking not on post-invasion sanctions, especially around swift bans and access to central bank reserves

Now, it doesn't take a genius to make this analysis. I am confident that China is already thinking about these things. So the natural conclusion that I have is they now know A LOT more about military and economical aspects of a full-scale invasion. In my view, this is really really bad for Taiwan.

[Slant]

Unfortunately, usually not how it pans out. Many leave because its the rational thing to do. Those who stay get poorer and more dependent on the regimes. Hence by Maduro and Assad are still around.

You know... human history started before you were conscious enough to watch the news, right... The last 20 years? Barely even a blip in history. The suffering in the past 20 years? Vacation as far as human history is concerned. The most peaceful, most prosperous time in human history.

So, when I say these things.. I'm not talking about generation MTV throwing a fit because their mum didn't bring them popcorn. Look at history and tell me how many tyrannical empires still exist?

Just to be fair to you, I would agree with one, and one only. But there's a caveat and you can probably agree with that.

[Elegiac]

I did not said China will stream roll Taiwan. I said two things

- China is taking note on how modern conventional wars are fought
-- Importance of external supplies and supply lines
-- Estimating enemies and your own strength and the impact of a green and rusty army
- China is also taking not on post-invasion sanctions, especially around swift bans and central bank reserves

Everyone's taking notes. That does not mean they have or can magically produce the ability to act on them, nor is it proof of incentive.

Moreover; your 'analysis' is not based on anything factual, just gut feelings which the actual evidence does not agree with anyway.

[Breccia]

Now, it doesn't take a genius to make this analysis.

I completely agree with this.

[dextersmith]

Speaking of propaganda, Russia lines up children with terminal cancer in the shape of a Z to... Uh... Support(?) their troops abroad.

How anyone thought that this was a good idea is beyond me, but I have a certain amount of morals, so maybe I'm just not built to get it.

I thought their sentiments were Russia is society's cancer! or Russia's demise is inevitable! Someone is going to be summoned for a meeting with Putin's gun.

[Elegiac]

I completely agree with this.

Use of incendiary weapons on civilians is a war crime, my dude. Rofl.

[PC2]

I can see your from the US, but I know you're being dishonest by forgetting about Iraq and Libya.

What about them? The US wasn't trying to expand by claiming their land as ours. Also for me I was in middle school when we went into Iraq so I didn't have much say or thoughts on the topic.

[Jessicka]

First, if you keep reducing the discussion to an individual level, I will just ignore you, habibi.


The predictions about Ukraine was also about the current capacity of Russia. China can always boost their ramp up if they really want it. I did not said China will stream roll Taiwan. I said two things

- China is taking note on how modern conventional wars are fought
-- Importance of external supplies and supply lines
-- Estimating enemies and your own strength and the impact of a green and rusty army
- China is also taking not on post-invasion sanctions, especially around swift bans and access to central bank reserves

Now, it doesn't take a genius to make this analysis. I am confident that China is already thinking about these things. So the natural conclusion that I have is they now know A LOT more about military and economical aspects of a full-scale invasion. In my view, this is really really bad for Taiwan.

The conclusions are likely to be a generational reconfiguration of their entire armed forces. In other words, putting any plans for an invasion on the backburner for at least 30 years. Which they'll be prepared to wait.

[Kallisto]

First, if you keep reducing the discussion to an individual level, I will just ignore you, habibi.


The predictions about Ukraine was also about the current capacity of Russia. China can always boost their ramp up if they really want it. I did not said China will stream roll Taiwan. I said two things

- China is taking note on how modern conventional wars are fought
-- Importance of external supplies and supply lines
-- Estimating enemies and your own strength and the impact of a green and rusty army
- China is also taking not on post-invasion sanctions, especially around swift bans and access to central bank reserves

Now, it doesn't take a genius to make this analysis. I am confident that China is already thinking about these things. So the natural conclusion that I have is they now know A LOT more about military and economical aspects of a full-scale invasion. In my view, this is really really bad for Taiwan.

If your view is bad for Taiwan you've not been taking notice. This war has shown that a committed defense is able to blunt a nation with superior numbers in many areas. It's also shown the need for logistics and also the importance of Georgraphy.

Also to put it out there. Taiwan has a better defensive capability than Ukraine and would go against a China that has equipment that makes Russian equipment look modern. Taiwan gets the best stuff from America which Ukraine is only getting now, while Taiwan has been flooded with it since the Chinese civil war. Add to the fact that Taiwan is a much much more defensible terrain than Ukraine will make it a blood bath for China to even attempt.

If China got anything out of watching the invasion of Ukraine. It should be that invading Taiwan is a fools errand. For the same reason that Sea Lion was never ever feasible.

[Grapemask]

The jets continue to be silliness.

"obviously the proposal from yesterday, that fighter jets manned by Americans departing a NATO base to fly into airspace contested with Russia raises serious concerns for the United States and NATO"

Given that the whole situation is about creating a farce for good faith people to say there is totally no reason for Russia, a bad faith actor, to claim there was an escalatory action, the answer seems simple. The US offers to host a whole bunch of Ukrainian diplomats on an airfield to discuss further aid, and those diplomats also just happen to be pilots. Then everyone goes to lunch, leaving the airplanes unlocked with the keys in the ignition. Huge mystery where those planes and those diplomats went when everyone comes back. It's exactly as stupid as what's happening, but it results in someone having some planes.

[Rasulis]

If your view is bad for Taiwan you've not been taking notice. This war has shown that a committed defense is able to blunt a nation with superior numbers in many areas. It's also shown the need for logistics and also the importance of Georgraphy.

Also to put it out there. Taiwan has a better defensive capability than Ukraine and would go against a China that has equipment that makes Russian equipment look modern. Taiwan gets the best stuff from America which Ukraine is only getting now, while Taiwan has been flooded with it since the Chinese civil war. Add to the fact that Taiwan is a much much more defensible terrain than Ukraine will make it a blood bath for China to even attempt.

If China got anything out of watching the invasion of Ukraine. It should be that invading Taiwan is a fools errand. For the same reason that Sea Lion was never ever feasible.

Just to add to this.

Maintaining logistical line across the Taiwan strait would be a nightmare.

A sea war with Taiwan will also block access to Chinese ports.

Unlike Ukraine where Russia could roll across the border, access to Taiwan are limited to a few narrow beach head access points.

Terrain. Take a look at Taiwan topographical map.

[DarkAmbient]

Sky News did an interview with Zelenskyy. He is sounding very exasperated with the international community's response to his pleas for a no-fly zone, saying his country can't stop the war on its own and needs help before it's too late: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-news-12561844

[Easo]

After the mass evacuations from Sumi and other encircled cities and towns we can fully expect full scale attack on them, imho. Less civilians - easier to "work" there. This will repeat on the next ones and then the next ones.

P.S.
It is quite funny reading Turkish chest beating. No, no you can't beat Russia alone.
But yes, Taiwan is fucked if USA will not intervene when the time comes. And that time will come.

Sky News did an interview with Zelenskyy. He is sounding very exasperated with the international community's response to his pleas for a no-fly zone, saying his country can't stop the war on its own and needs help before it's too late: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-news-12561844

He is not going to get it. He knows we, we know it.

[Traveler Voltin]

Sky News did an interview with Zelenskyy. He is sounding very exasperated with the international community's response to his pleas for a no-fly zone, saying his country can't stop the war on its own and needs help before it's too late: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-news-12561844

I agree with zelenskyy.
Stop being cowards

[XDurionX]

I agree with zelenskyy.
Stop being cowards

Feel free to travel to Ukraine to get a taste of the world war that would ensue before sending others to their deaths.