Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Makabreska]

Even if it wasn't, it'd provoke one anyhow. No thanks. We'll just publicly keep building up as what's left of Russia's military is planning their next move. After all, this was a "specialized military operation" not a war, /eyeroll, so unless they can find another country that isn't another country, they'll just go home?

I mean, does anybody still member Malaysia Airlines 17?

[Fugus]

In related news, Amazon have stopped deliveries and it's prime video services to Russia as part of this.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...xAgiUGi9FqVjS1

[Elegiac]

I really hope Taiwanese people do not underestimate China and overplay their their geography. Modern warfare is witnessing proliferation of armed drones.

Oh my fucking god dude, drones don't magically give you the ability to negate the fact Taiwan has a restricted number of beachheads. You're grasping at straws at this point, rofl.

Ukraine isn't alone

I'm referring to direct military assistance. And unlike Ukraine, there is actually a legal impetus for the US to come to Taiwan's defense.

The geography of Taiwan is my evidences proving that they can be isolated.

Yeah, and it's also direct evidence that even a properly planned invasion would be so costly for China as to be less than worth it.

Once again: foreign policy is not a game of Risk or Civilization. Claiming "China's gonna invade Taiwan because of how Ukraine is turning out" when every bit of factual evidence precludes that possibility, to say nothing of there being no evidence that there's an actual plan in the works, is talking out of your ass.

Just take the L and stop clogging up the thread with irrelevant rubbish.

[Kuntantee]

@Elegiac
I have been really patient with you but your mouth is basically a sewer. You line one insult after another in a debate. If your emotions are so fragile to the point being countered, whether you find it logical or not, is too much for you and you resort to adhominem, I have no further interest discussing with you. One little advise, I am not sure what kind of pot you're smoking or kind of impediments you have on your reasoning capabilities, but repeating "you do not have any evidence" while providing none is funny at best, pathetic at worst.

Indeed, I am going to do an L by just ignoring you.

[Flarelaine]

What?

Karabagh is tiny and that matters in defense. Ukraine has a lot of land where they can dance around Russian columns.

[JohnBrown1917]

What about them? The US wasn't trying to expand by claiming their land as ours. Also for me I was in middle school when we went into Iraq so I didn't have much say or thoughts on the topic.

Literal land expansion and bending the gov to your will is not much different.
Your rage is irrelevant, the point is that you seem to think the US can play world police for the same shit it supports(Saudies, Israel) or has its own hand in(Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq).

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I agree with zelenskyy.
Stop being cowards

Why do you want a nuclear war so badly?

[noremorze]

Just for the record. Someone paying close to 600 bucks per month, PER FUCKING MONTH, either isn't doing his maths right or he's being ripped the fuck off. I know people that pay that amount for rent per month.

INCLUDING heating.

That's my point, if he's living in a mansion that uses 600 Euros per months on energy (electricity + gas), he's lucky they don't take his fucking palace away from him. Welfare? How?

People that have to pay these amounts for new contracts do not live in castles, mansions or palaces. These are actually the most affordable houses, old and poorly insulated where people with the lowest income end up living in. And he should be lucky that they don't take his "fucking palace" away?

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

The jets continue to be silliness.



Given that the whole situation is about creating a farce for good faith people to say there is totally no reason for Russia, a bad faith actor, to claim there was an escalatory action, the answer seems simple. The US offers to host a whole bunch of Ukrainian diplomats on an airfield to discuss further aid, and those diplomats also just happen to be pilots. Then everyone goes to lunch, leaving the airplanes unlocked with the keys in the ignition. Huge mystery where those planes and those diplomats went when everyone comes back. It's exactly as stupid as what's happening, but it results in someone having some planes.

At that point they need to disassemble the wings and put them on trucks to cross the border.

[PC2]

Literal land expansion and bending the gov to your will is not much different.

If the US took their land then we'll just give it back ASAP. Russia on the other hand wants to keep eastern Ukrainian land forever.

Your rage is irrelevant, the point is that you seem to think the US can play world police for the same shit it supports(Saudies, Israel) or has its own hand in(Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq).

Okay well the USA and Europe are improving at the ethics of military geopolitics so I'm not worried about it. Russia and China still want to expand through military force though, so that's where our focus will be in the coming years and decades.

[Rasulis]

I was expecting crude to go up with Biden's announcement. Instead, WTI is now $108.70. It peaked at around $123.70 yesterday.

[Adam Jensen]

I agree with zelenskyy.
Stop being cowards

Look, I'd be all for NATO gathering it's full force and going into Ukraine to stomp Russia into the dirt but there's a teeny tiny little problem:

The nuclear bomb.

Any action where NATO militaries target Russian militaries, including a no fly zone, could result in escalation that leads to a megalomaniac like Putin ordering a nuclear strike.

[Rasulis]

Well, what they said is not what they do. Sometimes.

OPEC+ Raises Oil Production By Most In 7 Months

OPEC members raised their production in February by a collective 480,000 bpd, reaching 28.67 million barrels per day, while the rest of the OPEC+ group lifted its February crude oil production by 80,000 bpd, to 14.07 million bpd, the survey showed.

My bet is that we'll see additional production increase in March.

The U.S.’s Venezuela visit bears fruit, as two detained Americans get released

Some people will be yelling "Maduro Bad!" I think we will see increased production from Venezuela also.

[Kallisto]

I agree with zelenskyy.
Stop being cowards

You're free to volunteer. But if any NATO country gets involved directly that's basically the end of every man, woman and child in Europe, North America and Russia. With insane amounts of famine and economic issues that will cause large long term deaths in the rest of the world.

[Yunru]

Look, I'd be all for NATO gathering it's full force and going into Ukraine to stomp Russia into the dirt but there's a teeny tiny little problem:

The nuclear bomb.

Any action where NATO militaries target Russian militaries, including a no fly zone, could result in escalation that leads to a megalomaniac like Putin ordering a nuclear strike.

It doesnt stop NATO to hire security contractors and give them tanks and shit tho.
I checked some sites and there are offers for Extraction / Protective Agents – Ukraine -- Salary: $1000 - $2000 /day + bonus
So they are active in that part at least when it comes to defense.

They could still hire people to take down russan generals/officers and their command in country. Ukraine army could deal with them, when they are in panic and push them back.

[Jessicka]

You're free to volunteer. But if any NATO country gets involved directly that's basically the end of every man, woman and child in Europe, North America and Russia. With insane amounts of famine and economic issues that will cause large long term deaths in the rest of the world.

I doubt they’d use strategic nuclear weapons and trigger MAD. But tacticals are not off the table for Russia, and that’s more than enough. It’s still millions dead across Eastern Europe and the Baltics whether or not NATO respond in kind.

By not getting involved with a NFZ we’re ensuring Kyiv at a minimum isn’t nuked, because that would be the first target. The reason Zelensky is attacking NATO over this is to help press the point that NATO aren’t getting involved, that’s actually really important and actually helps us.

[Gaidax]

It doesnt stop NATO to hire security contractors and give them tanks and shit tho.
I checked some sites and there are offers for Extraction / Protective Agents – Ukraine -- Salary: $1000 - $2000 /day + bonus
So they are active in that part at least when it comes to defense.

They could still hire people to take down russan generals/officers and their command in country. Ukraine army could deal with them, when they are in panic and push them back.

It's all calculated risks.

There is quite a big difference between "volunteers" or some "protective agents" and shit like no-fly zones and shooting down Russian planes.

Heck, you have US/Poland shitting bricks over even prospect of being the direct supplier of said jets to Ukraine turning the whole thing into a giant meme and you expect them to start shooting down Russian planes.

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I doubt they’d use strategic nuclear weapons and trigger MAD. But tacticals are not off the table for Russia, and that’s more than enough. It’s still millions dead across Eastern Europe and the Baltics whether or not NATO respond in kind.

By not getting involved with a NFZ we’re ensuring Kyiv at a minimum isn’t nuked, because that would be the first target. The reason Zelensky is attacking NATO over this is to help press the point that NATO aren’t getting involved, that’s actually really important and actually helps us.

You know, I also doubted many things 2 months ago. I still VERY much doubt any sort of nukes use is on the table, but it's a simple risk management there. Sure the probability is very low, but severity is catastrophic and nobody is going to make the call of even having a tiny chance of it going there over Ukraine.

And yes this means that cheers, claps and some light weapons is all that Zelensky is going to get. Heck, I hope they'd at least get their shit together and give these decrepit planes, instead of engaging in this whole hot potato meme they do for a week now.

[PC2]

It doesnt stop NATO to hire security contractors and give them tanks and shit tho.
I checked some sites and there are offers for Extraction / Protective Agents – Ukraine -- Salary: $1000 - $2000 /day + bonus
So they are active in that part at least when it comes to defense.

They could still hire people to take down russan generals/officers and their command in country. Ukraine army could deal with them, when they are in panic and push them back.

That's a good idea but you would have to invent a way to do all of that stuff anonymously. There would have to be a way to sneak in people and equipment where the source can't be traced by Russia. What you're asking is very difficult and it could be very expensive to convince mercenaries to take on the Russian military...

[Zan15]

Well, what they said is not what they do. Sometimes.

OPEC+ Raises Oil Production By Most In 7 Months



My bet is that we'll see additional production increase in March.

The U.S.’s Venezuela visit bears fruit, as two detained Americans get released

Some people will be yelling "Maduro Bad!" I think we will see increased production from Venezuela also.

Maybe its profit taking or maybe this shadow increase is why the markets had a mini crash today of 10-12% and gas was down 40 cents and home heating oil cratered almost a full dollar.

will be funny to see nothing change at the pump overnight even with these massive drops, even though massive moves in the other direction was causing multiple daily changes in price upwards

[Gaidax]

That's a good idea but you would have to invent a way to do all of that stuff anonymously. There would have to be a way to sneak in people and supplies where the source can't be traced by Russia. What you're asking is very difficult and it could be insanely expensive to convince mercenaries to take on the Russian military...

It's not really needed to be covert to that extent, because Russia will be aware pretty much instantly anyway. Of course these contractors won't be going in in NATO fatigues waving US flags, they would instead be West version of "little green men".

If the whole thing is limited it's enough to let it slide, so risk is none. Few thousands such contractors with light equipment won't make Russia go wild there... Tanks and such, on the other hand, are already a more dangerous territory there.

[Easo]

Gotta say that the jet fighter dance is getting ridiculous. And giving more MANPADs will not solve the AA issue, those are literally the last line of defense against planes.

Karabagh is tiny and that matters in defense. Ukraine has a lot of land where they can dance around Russian columns.

Not in the mud they can't... Same goes for Russians, of course, mud doesn't care. And it is supposed to be freezing soon, so that's actually not great.

Oh my fucking god dude, drones don't magically give you the ability to negate the fact Taiwan has a restricted number of beachheads.

As I wrote last year China will attempt to "resolve the question of Taiwan" until the end of 2030. If you want you can mark it down and I will send you beer or something if my prognosis will fail and we are still alive by then.

It's not really needed to be covert to that extent, because Russia will be aware pretty much instantly anyway. Of course these contractors won't be going in in NATO fatigues waving US flags, they would instead be West version of "little green men".

If the whole thing is limited it's enough to let it slide, so risk is none. Few thousands such contractors with light equipment won't make Russia go wild there... Tanks and such, on the other hand, are already a more dangerous territory there.

Ehh, Ukraine still should have enough heavy armor left. But every single remaining S-300 and Buk unit is worth more than gold and irreplaceable at this point, more than any tank.