Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Easo]

Gotta say that the jet fighter dance is getting ridiculous. And giving more MANPADs will not solve the AA issue, those are literally the last line of defense against planes.

Karabagh is tiny and that matters in defense. Ukraine has a lot of land where they can dance around Russian columns.

Not in the mud they can't... Same goes for Russians, of course, mud doesn't care. And it is supposed to be freezing soon, so that's actually not great.

Oh my fucking god dude, drones don't magically give you the ability to negate the fact Taiwan has a restricted number of beachheads.

As I wrote last year China will attempt to "resolve the question of Taiwan" until the end of 2030. If you want you can mark it down and I will send you beer or something if my prognosis will fail and we are still alive by then.

It's not really needed to be covert to that extent, because Russia will be aware pretty much instantly anyway. Of course these contractors won't be going in in NATO fatigues waving US flags, they would instead be West version of "little green men".

If the whole thing is limited it's enough to let it slide, so risk is none. Few thousands such contractors with light equipment won't make Russia go wild there... Tanks and such, on the other hand, are already a more dangerous territory there.

Ehh, Ukraine still should have enough heavy armor left. But every single remaining S-300 and Buk unit is worth more than gold and irreplaceable at this point, more than any tank.

[Jessicka]

It's all calculated risks.

There is quite a big difference between "volunteers" or some "protective agents" and shit like no-fly zones and shooting down Russian planes.

Heck, you have US/Poland shitting bricks over even prospect of being the direct supplier of said jets to Ukraine turning the whole thing into a giant meme and you expect them to start shooting down Russian planes.

Presently the UK is shitting itself because a bunch of infantry went AWOL to go fight in Ukraine, and now we’re scared they’ll get captured and Russia will use it as proof we’re intervening directly - because they’re serving soldiers and not volunteers or indeed “volunteers” with properly scrubbed backgrounds.

Paid contractors are similarly sketchy because there’s still paper trails with licensing and such. Somewhere along the line a NATO country rubber stamps it.

The issue with the aircraft is that they’re not viewed entirely as defensive armaments, they can as Russia are demonstrating be very offensive. Giving Ukraine the means to shoot down planes with SAMs however is absolutely fine, it’s purely defensive. Hence the UK looking at handing over some Starstreak systems, though it remains to be seen if the Friends of Russia in government ultimately go along with it.

It’s just one of those utterly bullshit things where while Russia are blatantly breaking laws and conventions as a matter of routine, NATO has to tread incredibly carefully so as not to get called on it to see it escalate further.

[Gaidax]

It’s just one of those utterly bullshit things where while Russia are blatantly breaking laws and conventions as a matter of routine, NATO has to tread incredibly carefully so as not to get called on it to see it escalate further.

Price of mistakes there is high, as Russia itself can attest to.

You don't want an "oopsie" there. Again it's a simple case of what you gain vs what you can potentially lose.

Absolutely smartest thing for US/NATO right now is just to sit there and chew on that popcorn, because they got a huge win out of all this already and relatively a freebie at that. They aren't about to upset that for no reason that actually matters for them.

[Iphie]

Presently the UK is shitting itself because a bunch of infantry went AWOL to go fight in Ukraine, and now we’re scared they’ll get captured and Russia will use it as proof we’re intervening directly - because they’re serving soldiers and not volunteers or indeed “volunteers” with properly scrubbed backgrounds.
.

Wouldn't they be kicked out the moment they went awol?

[Logwyn]

Presently the UK is shitting itself because a bunch of infantry went AWOL to go fight in Ukraine, and now we’re scared they’ll get captured and Russia will use it as proof we’re intervening directly - because they’re serving soldiers and not volunteers or indeed “volunteers” with properly scrubbed backgrounds.

Paid contractors are similarly sketchy because there’s still paper trails with licensing and such. Somewhere along the line a NATO country rubber stamps it.

The issue with the aircraft is that they’re not viewed entirely as defensive armaments, they can as Russia are demonstrating be very offensive. Giving Ukraine the means to shoot down planes with SAMs however is absolutely fine, it’s purely defensive. Hence the UK looking at handing over some Starstreak systems, though it remains to be seen if the Friends of Russia in government ultimately go along with it.

It’s just one of those utterly bullshit things where while Russia are blatantly breaking laws and conventions as a matter of routine, NATO has to tread incredibly carefully so as not to get called on it to see it escalate further.

Seems like they are in good company with 20,000 people from 52 countries.

[PhaelixWW]

Wouldn't they be kicked out the moment they went awol?

Not necessarily "kicked out", but it would be illegal, sure.

The Guardian: The UK transport secretary, Grant Shapps, has warned against British soldiers traveling to Ukraine to illegally fight, saying it is a “dangerous situation”.

He told ITV’s Good Morning Britain:

"You cannot go and fight if you’re in the British Army, you cannot just get up and go and fight. Of course that’s inappropriate behaviour and you would expect the army to have some very, very strict rules in place, as they do."

Asked what Russia might do if a British soldier was captured or killed, PA reports that Shapps said:

"There’s a big difference between Britain sending its army in and some people who are breaking with our law and going to do it."

"But, clearly, this is a dangerous situation. And clearly, we want to make sure that the assistance we’re providing is done in an official way - like the anti-tank missiles that we provided prior to and during this conflict, and like the 22,000 Ukrainians that we’ve trained."

[Rasulis]

Not necessarily "kicked out", but it would be illegal, sure.

The Guardian: The UK transport secretary, Grant Shapps, has warned against British soldiers traveling to Ukraine to illegally fight, saying it is a “dangerous situation”.

Some former South Korean special forces also went to Ukraine. Despite threat of jail, fine and loss of passport.

I think it has something to do with fighting in a war with clearly defined good and evil sides.

[PhaelixWW]

Some former South Korean special forces also went to Ukraine. Despite threat of jail, fine and loss of passport.

"Former" is definitely less noteworthy than "current", however, from a "creating a pretext for war" standpoint.

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I think it has something to do with fighting in a war with clearly defined good and evil sides.

Well, duh. This is why pretty much the whole world is on the same side of this.

[Elenos]

I wouldn't trust Ukraine's claim at 20.000 soldiers, perhaps 20.000 total including aid workers but still 20.000 soldiers? Fat chance. Still a bunch of properly trained infantry members and special forces can make a difference. The issue for Ukraine isn't even equipping them: They have plenty of solid small arms to give them.

The issue is that light infantry forces just aren't enough to change the situation on the ground. They help but with Ukraine's armored forces unable to do more then just as operate as glorified gun emplacements in urban areas Russia has an enormous advantage
..

Gotta say that the jet fighter dance is getting ridiculous. And giving more MANPADs will not solve the AA issue, those are literally the last line of defense against planes.

Poland: Here Ukraine, have our fighter jets free of charge!

United States: Good plan buddy!

"Russian bear starts growling"

Poland "sweating": On second thought we'll just fly them here to Germany and give them to the US, he's got it handled.

United States "panicked": What?!

"Growling intensifies"

Germany: Are you two quite done?

[Easo]

I also do not trust that tens of thousands of volunteers are coming to fight there. Absolutely expect some of them to never get to Ukraine, some never getting further than Lviv and some just doing some photo sessions. Plus you cannot integrate them that fast, Ukraine in general is not good with speaking English.
Plus yeah - pure infantry won't win this. It can delay the inevitable, though, which might be useful for peace deal.

[Elenos]

It can delay the inevitable, though, which might be useful for peace deal.

I agree with Macron on this. I just don't see how a peace deal can happen. Ukraine and Russia both refuse to concede any points.

[Easo]

I agree with Macron on this. I just don't see how a peace deal can happen. Ukraine and Russia both refuse to concede any points.

We shall see. Never underestimate realpolitik, Russia is interested in finishing this ASAP, too.
Or we all are totally wrong and Russia will go to the end and occupy everything.

Both delegations have now arrived in Turkey for the meeting of both Foreign Ministers.

[Gaidax]

I agree with Macron on this. I just don't see how a peace deal can happen. Ukraine and Russia both refuse to concede any points.

On the contrary, they already conceded on a few. Ukraine agreed to not seek NATO admission and Russia are no longer aiming for government change or pro-Russian PM.

You have 2 things now - Crimea and Donbas. I don't expect Russia to give a millimeter in regards to Crimea and IMO Ukraine will have to swallow that one, Donbas on the other hand - I do believe they can reach some middle ground.

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Now, of course it all might just be a ruse for Russia to get time regroup and push through. They still can say "fuck it" and go full ham any moment.

[Kaleredar]

Now, of course it all might just be a ruse for Russia to get time regroup and push through. They still can say "fuck it" and go full ham any moment.

Of course that's what it is.

They violated their "respect Ukraine's borders" deal when they invaded Crimea, then they violated that "we totes just want Crimea" sentiment with this further invasion. Russia's word is dirt.

Russia was never worried about NATO invading them. They never gave a shit about nazis or whatever excuse they conjured up. It's solely based on wanting Ukraine's resources and a slow rebuilding of the Soviet Union.

If Ukraine accepts anything that cedes land to Russia, Russia will just do this same thing again in oh, say, five years... except next time they wont be so laughably under-prepared with an economy the rest of the world basically just yanks out from under them.

[Shadowferal]

I think it has something to do with fighting in a war with clearly defined good and evil sides.

Yea...a fight that seems clearly defined with a cause that can be believed in...a fight that can be proudly fought.

[Gaidax]

It's solely based on wanting Ukraine's resources

It's not really about Ukraine's resources or even USSR.

It's about retaining influence in the region and keeping ex-Soviet states in check. Ukraine dared to go against Russia and this is not something that Russia could afford to let slide, because there are half a dozen other such states around looking at it and taking notes.

Now Russia fucked this one up, but I am sure that many of these ex-Soviet republics are now shitting bricks after seeing what happened to cheeky Ukraine. Russia got fucked quite a bit, but it does not mean it can't target switch and fuck up another audacious state or two bordering it.

[Ripster42]

So, how’s that going again? Let me know when it’s a done deal. Then check on the initial objection. Which was to the idea that this deal was in place already. Which it clearly isn’t.

Pretty good. I encourage you to review my statements on the matter. What I rejected was that the deal was definitely kaput. Given the info we had at the time, it was premature to reach that conclusion.

[PhaelixWW]

I never made such a claim. Next time check before you attempt a gotcha. And it’s not going pretty good.

Now it's not. Back then it was.

Times change and there have been multiple back-and-forths.

[Corvus]

Iconic soviet era carmaker Lada (who Putin has praised and account for 21% of Russian car sales) has shut its factories down as it can't get the parts it needs due to sanctions.

[Ripster42]

I never made such a claim. Next time check before you attempt a gotcha. And it’s not going pretty good.

I think you misunderstand. "Pretty good" in this context was about how I was feeling about my statements. I feel just fine with them. I was not saying that it still looks like the deal is going to get done (I was a bit surprised you didn't make these posts yesterday, when the news came out). My recriminations towards you were about presenting a carefully worded tweet as a counterfactual, that didn't say what you implied it meant.