Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elenos]

We shall see. Never underestimate realpolitik, Russia is interested in finishing this ASAP, too.
Or we all are totally wrong and Russia will go to the end and occupy everything.

Both delegations have now arrived in Turkey for the meeting of both Foreign Ministers.

Well I personally believe Russia will go to the end and occupy the whole country, if not that then all but Lviv.

[PhaelixWW]

Well I personally believe Russia will go to the end and occupy the whole country, if not that then all but Lviv.

There's just no way. They'll be bled dry.

[Poopymonster]

There's just no way. They'll be bled dry.

They might get that far, and for one single moment they'll occupy the whole country. Then the ̶C̶a̶d̶i̶a̶n̶s̶ Ukrainians start making holes in the strung out lines.

[JohnBrown1917]

If the US took their land then we'll just give it back ASAP. Russia on the other hand wants to keep eastern Ukrainian land forever.

You have no idea how this works, do you?

Okay well the USA and Europe are improving at the ethics of military geopolitics so I'm not worried about it. Russia and China still want to expand through military force though, so that's where our focus will be in the coming years and decades.

Ah yes, like all the various black sites and Guantanamo bay.


The funny thing is I actually believe that you really belief in everything you write.

[PhaelixWW]

They might get that far, and for one single moment they'll occupy the whole country. Then the ̶C̶a̶d̶i̶a̶n̶s̶ Ukrainians start making holes in the strung out lines.

Yeah, in other words: they might conquer but they won't occupy.

[Kallisto]

Well I personally believe Russia will go to the end and occupy the whole country, if not that then all but Lviv.

They don't even have close to enough to occupy a nation that's being mostly compliant (20 ground troops per 1000 occupied people). Ukraine is being far from Compliant and fighting tooth and nail.

[Shadowferal]

There's just no way. They'll be bled dry.

I agree.
It seems to me Putin never saw an outcome any different from a quick takeover. And since that didn't happen he doesn't have a backup plan...an endgame...a plan-b...he just doesn't have any way of getting out of this disaster he created.

[PhaelixWW]

I asked how it was currently going… so yeah.

Doesn't mean you were right back then, especially since the stopping factor isn't even Poland this time around... so yeah.

[PhaelixWW]

They don't even have close to enough to occupy a nation that's being mostly compliant (20 ground troops per 1000 occupied people). Ukraine is being far from Compliant and fighting tooth and nail.

Agreed:

At an absolute minimum, I think you need, what, 10 troops for every 1k citizens for an occupational force?

I mean, this is also why it's silly to think that 200k Russian troops could successfully occupy the 45m population Ukraine (<5 per 1k citizens). At least unless they *cough* drastically reduced the population first.

Realistically, it would take closer to 50 per 1k, or even 100 per 1k, but that's just unfeasible.

There's just no way.

- - - Updated - - -

I quoted Poland’s most recent stance, via their PM. Which was no deal was in place. So even then… yeah. And since there’s still no deal… yeah.

That tweet wasn't the most up-to-date information at the time, nor does its reasoning apply even now... so yeah.

I mean, you're trying to be the figurative broken clock claiming that it's the correct time. But nobody's buying it.

[Kallisto]

Where the numbers (if i remembered rightly) came from

[Corvus]

On top of Russia just not having the troops to occupy Ukraine, they are having problems in the Russian speaking part of the country and civilian casualties are coming predominantly from the Russian speakers, just the people they would need on their side if they were to have any hopes at occupation.

[PhaelixWW]

Where the numbers (if i remembered rightly) came from

Yeah, I can't argue with anything he said.

Those numbers have existed in one form or another for thousands of years. The Romans had their calculations for occupying forces, too, though the number required has obviously gone down some as technology has advanced.

[Corvus]

Rio Tinto, the worlds second largest miner and metals corporation is noping out of Russia. Guess the gulag mines will be making a return in the NewSSR.

And the US estimate the Russians have lost 5-6K dead and 15-18K wounded in 2 weeks.

[PhaelixWW]

And the US estimate the Russians have lost 5-6K dead and 15-18K wounded in 2 weeks.

So, yeah, 10%+ of the invading force out of combat

[Zaydin]

You know, I keep seeing Russia apologists asking 'Why do people think Ukraine can win?'. That's an easy answer: Ukraine wins by not losing.

Russia, meanwhile, in order to win, has to conquer every last inch of land in Ukraine and hold it while also trying to break the Ukrainian peoples spirit. Something Russia does not have the manpower or the economy to accomplish; numerous financial institutions like Fitch Ratings to Morgan-Stanley are predicting that Russia will go into default in April. Fitch also lowered its rating for Russias credit to a 'C', or junk status.

[Grapemask]

Kirby and the US now switching to extremely transparent, borderline propaganda silliness to explain why they have to pussy out of the jets:

The most effective way to support the Ukrainian military is with additional anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons — not MiG-29 fighter jets, according to America's top general in Europe.

Echoing an earlier statement from Pentagon press secretary John Kirby, the commander of US European Command Gen. Tod Wolters said the Ukrainians were “making excellent use of these weapons now,” limiting the ability of Russian military aircraft to operate freely.

Wolters added that Ukraine already has “numerous” aircraft flying daily, and that adding more would not give the Ukrainian Air Force a relative advantage.

Reminder that Ukraine asked for these planes, and I'm going to wager that the people fighting the war probably have a better idea of what they need for what than the people vehemently refusing to fight in that war.

[Torched]

About the whole jet fiasco, why not just give them more drones? we are already giving them javelins and the like, why not drones that might not be top tier like the Reaper drone from the US but something of the caliber of the Turkish drones. With drones you aren't risking a pilots life and they can be controlled from pretty far away.

[Kallisto]

Rio Tinto, the worlds second largest miner and metals corporation is noping out of Russia. Guess the gulag mines will be making a return in the NewSSR.

And the US estimate the Russians have lost 5-6K dead and 15-18K wounded in 2 weeks.

That's not including defections and POWs, that's huge.

[Ripster42]

That tweet wasn't the most up-to-date information at the time, nor does its reasoning apply even now... so yeah.

I mean, you're trying to be the figurative broken clock claiming that it's the correct time. But nobody's buying it.

I truly don't know if vegas understands this point: The difference between polish migs in ukraine and poland letting ukraine have their migs.

[Xyonai]

You know, I keep seeing Russia apologists asking 'Why do people think Ukraine can win?'. That's an easy answer: Ukraine wins by not losing.

Russia, meanwhile, in order to win, has to conquer every last inch of land in Ukraine and hold it while also trying to break the Ukrainian peoples spirit. Something Russia does not have the manpower or the economy to accomplish; numerous financial institutions like Fitch Ratings to Morgan-Stanley are predicting that Russia will go into default in April. Fitch also lowered its rating for Russias credit to a 'C', or junk status.

At this point Putin's stuck in a sunk cost fallacy and is hoping that he can just keep indiscriminately bombing civilians until Zelensky gives into - at least some - of Putin's demands. Like Russia doesn't have the troop numbers for a full occupation, but their army is so ethically bankrupt that they can just keep shelling non-combatants and hope it breaks the will of a Leader who wants them to stop shelling non-combatants.