Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

No, entire thing is planned with taking entire Ukraine as worst case; and then having some extra supplies past that too.

Citation needed. This is a 400+ page thread, most of which is filled with objectively true stories about Russian troops having no food, gas, beds, working vehicles, and being stopped by a techno bar door. You claiming that Russia was prepared for this is casually handwaved.

You are right, it won't make you sacrifice 2% growth. It'll be closer to seven.

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.

"A peak-to trough decline in Russian GDP is now expected at around 12%, comparable to 1998 (~10%) and 2008 (~11%) crises and COVID-19 shock (~9%)", Anatoliy Shal at JPMorgan said in a note to clients.

JPMorgan expected exports to decline around 13% this year, domestic demand about 10% and imports by around 30%.

"What is clear though, is that Russia’s growing economic and political isolation will lead to lower growth in the long-run," Shal added.

"We expect Russia’s growth at around zero next year (vs. -1.0% previously) and a trend growth of around 1% in the long-run."

[PhaelixWW]

Yes, losses are always projected; so far (by MoD estimates) we're below projections.

So you're claiming that you're not just bad at this, but that you planned to be bad at this?

Weird flex, but okay.

[Deus Mortis]

No, entire thing is planned with taking entire Ukraine as worst case; and then having some extra supplies past that too.

Was it planned to lose 2 generals in 2 weeks? For reference the US has lost two generals since Vietnam and one of those was during 9/11.

[Corvus]

Yes, losses are always projected; so far (by MoD estimates) we're below projections.

The only way you'd know what projections would be was if you worked in the mod. Those things aren't made public.

[Breccia]

So you're claiming that you're not just bad at this, but that you planned to be bad at this?

No, he said they planned to be worse than this. Bear in mind, it's already embarrassing. Like "do I even want spoiled turnips?" level of embarrassing.

House votes to ban Russian oil imports 414 to 17.

[Xyonai]

Ukraine blows up fuel trucks; Russia blows up entire fuel depots.

Give yourself a little more credit, Russia's not -just- blowing up Fuel Depots: It's also blowing up Children's hospitals, fleeing civilians, residential buildings, universities, and random civilian cars!

[PhaelixWW]

Hey, guys, we should keep in mind that Shalcker literally can't say anything other than what he's saying...

...otherwise he could face spending 15 years in a Russian gulag for disagreeing with Putin on the "special military action".

[Torched]

Yes, losses are always projected; so far (by MoD estimates) we're below projections.

What absolute horse shit, did we ever see the Afghan or Iraqis farmers stealing completely working M1 Abrams tanks or Bradleys? no we did not.
The russian army shit the bed and you can try and spin it however you want.
The world can see that the strong russian bear is in fact a paper bear.

[Shalcker]

Was it planned to lose 2 generals in 2 weeks? For reference the US has lost two generals since Vietnam and one of those was during 9/11.

No generals died so far. Gerasimov is relatively common surname; the guy who died wasn't general despite having same name.

[Kuntantee]

Show me those plans in writing rather then in Western analyst talk.

I am not talking about some sort of analysis but what actually has happened. Russia tried to storm the airport in Kiev and bunch of other assaults in the middle of the country. All ended in disaster. It is obvious that the original plans were storming and finishing this early. That did not work out.

[Shalcker]

The only way you'd know what projections would be was if you worked in the mod. Those things aren't made public.

They do daily briefings.

[PhaelixWW]

they do daily briefings propaganda statements.

FTFY...

/10c

[Corvus]

No generals died so far. Gerasimov is relatively common surname; the guy who died wasn't general despite having same name.

Different Gerasimov. The one that was killed was a major general, not the Chief of the Army. And his nephew as well.

- - - Updated - - -

They do daily briefings.

Verified equipment losses stand at nearly 1000 vehicles, including about a dozen planes and a dozen helicopters. I bet daily propoganda isn't admitting to anywhere near that high a loss.

[Shalcker]

Give yourself a little more credit, Russia's not -just- blowing up Fuel Depots: It's also blowing up Children's hospitals, fleeing civilians, residential buildings, universities, and random civilian cars!

Sadly a lot of videos about "random civilian cars" - like the one in Kiev, or the one with dogs - are quite obviously civilians shot by Ukrainians, as Russian army was nowhere near at that moment (and i've watched Ukrainian livestreams as those videos were coming up at the time - with Ukrainians going "wtf did Zelensky think giving out weapons to everyone who turns up?").

And the moment Ukrainian forces occupy any building or use it as ammunition storage those buildings turn into valid military targets.

Plenty of videos, photos, and witness testimonies about it.

[Nastard]

How much longer before he'll be like "those generals that died were demoted just before their deaths so it doesn't count."

[Breccia]

How much longer before he'll be like "those generals that died were demoted just before their deaths so it doesn't count."

Even China isn't buying this one.

Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of Russia’s 41st army, was killed on Monday, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s defence ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine’s defence ministry and said Gerasimov had fought with Russian forces in Syria and Chechnya and had taken part in the seizure of Crimea in 2014.

Note what they don't say is "Major General Vitaly Gerasimov is a common name". Because that's a stupid fucking lie to tell. It'd be more convincing to claim Ukraine killed an innocent body builder. Ukraine has a working military and intelligence. They know who Russia's generals are.

[Rasulis]

Looks like it will go down to -9 Celsius tomorrow, and Friday. Do tanks have heater inside?

It will be bad for the refugees also.

[PhaelixWW]

Looks like it will go down to -9 Celsius tomorrow, and Friday. Do tanks have heater inside?

Do Russian military AKs still use wooden furniture?

No? Hmm.

Oh, well, I guess they'll just have to burn down some more hospitals or schools or something to stay warm.

[Breccia]

Do tanks have heater inside?

Good question. I would assume the giant diesel engine would do the trick. And I know most American tanks are air conditioned...

[Corvus]

Looks like it will go down to -9 Celsius tomorrow, and Friday. Do tanks have heater inside?

It will be bad for the refugees also.

Given lack of fuel and possibly batteries in some they'll be giant metal refrigerators. The only positive would be being out of the wind.