Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Crispin]

In "dropping Russia altogether" Europe will see industry destruction at the same time as price hike. Inflation together with recession.

They literally don't have spare LNG capacity to cover loss of Russian pipeline gas; their gas storages are almost empty.

Sure, they'll "survive" - by losing growth for several years.

They'll suffer more if they drop Russian oil too.

Surprise - 50% of German coal is also sourced from Russia.

I'd happily pay the price to turn Russia into the poor man of the World, as will many westerners.

You seem to forget, that while it's a small period with higher prices on gas, oil and some foods, it's a Russia that will permanently loose it's source of income, to supply it's military aspirations.

As I wrote earlier, it's barely a discomfort. The people I know who have their houses heated by gas, are buying heatpumps instead. We'll adjust, no biggie.

Germany arent the EU. They can prolong the life of their nuclear powerplants etc. to compensate.

It's cute you worry about us, but we're fine, really. Now have fun watching your currency turn into shit.

In the end, it's probably the corn storage in the middle east, that'll suffer the most, and likely cause new uprisings.

[Corvus]

The lies which Lavrov is spewing about biological weapons are starting to sound a lot like the lies he was sprouting before the invasion of Ukraine. I'm starting to get a bad feeling about what they may do next.

[Draco-Onis]

Internal Russian prices do not rise at the same speed as exchange rate.

They are affected by interest rates and capital flow unless your argument is the laws of economics don't apply in Russia.

[Shalcker]

I'd happily pay the price to turn Russia into the poor man of the World, as will many westerners.

I will happily pay the price to teach Europe a lesson on how reality differs from wishful thinking.

You seem to forget, that while it's a small period with higher prices on gas, oil and some foods, it's a Russia that will permanently loose it's source of income, to supply it's military aspirations.

As if. The only one "isolating" Russia so far is "Western block". Saudis and UAE already literally ignore Biden's calls.

There will be no "permanence", just a few years of re-adjustments.

As I wrote earlier, it's barely a discomfort. The people I know who have their houses heated by gas, are buying heatpumps instead. We'll adjust, no biggie.

Russians will adjust too, no biggie.

Europe will lose competitive advantage in cheaper energy while China and Asia will get to enjoy it.

[Draco-Onis]

I'd happily pay the price to turn Russia into the poor man of the World, as will many westerners.

Not on the right, I knew this would happen but sooner than expected the right wing is all abuzz about Biden's gas prices and that this would never happen under Trump.

- - - Updated - - -

Russians will adjust too, no biggie.

Europe will lose competitive advantage in cheaper energy while China and Asia will get to enjoy it.

Not really even China will move away from Russia since clean energy is the future, Europe was reliant on Russia during their transition. The big problem Russia has is that their economy heavily relies on a commodity that will be phased out in a few decades. Unlike the Saudis there's no sovereign wealth fund to cushion this blow.

[Shalcker]

They are affected by interest rates and capital flow unless your argument is the laws of economics don't apply in Russia.

There is no capital flow now though (you know, markets being closed and all, with only foreign currencies being traded); the only interest rate that matters is one set by CBR.

[PhaelixWW]

A column of Russian tanks (apparently including a TOS-1A) was ambushed and driven off east of Kyiv. There are also reports that a Russian colonel was killed in the attack.

[Corvus]

Russia is saying that China is refusing to supply it airplane parts. Woops.

Hilariously, they think they are going to get them from Turkey instead. India might do it, but don't count on it.

[Draco-Onis]

There is no capital flow now though (you know, markets being closed and all, with only foreign currencies being traded); the only interest rate that matters is one set by CBR.

Did Russia stop all imports/exports or do you not know what capital flow is?

[Shalcker]

Did Russia stop all imports/exports or do you not know what capital flow is?

Imports/exports are barely a trickle; and Russia always sold more then it bought in exports/imports equation (with multi-year positive trade balance), so with them alone there will be capital inflows.

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply by bringing up capital flows and interest rates.

[Draco-Onis]

Imports/exports are barely a trickle; and Russia always sold more then in bought in exports/imports equation, so with them alone there will be capital inflows.

So in short you don't know how that works, you could have just said so there's a reason your central bank has instituted capital controls.

[Shalcker]

So in short you don't know how that works, you could have just said so there's a reason your central bank has instituted capital controls.

You could just say why exactly did you make this question rather then vaguely hinting on some economic theory.

CBR instituted capital controls because CBR assets were frozen on EU side, thus limiting their options for interventions.
So to prevent capital flight and associated negative externalities it instituted capital controls.
Sure, trapping capital inside Russia has negative externalities too; but less then allowing them to freely flee.

[jonnysensible]

dont worry i will let you sleep on my sofa shackler when mr gulag comes for you too

[Shalcker]

You honestly think Russia is fine right now? Honestly?

Yes, ways to deal with 20+% inflation are still fresh in living memory.

[Shalcker]

dont worry i will let you sleep on my sofa shackler when mr gulag comes for you too

Try not to go bankrupt paying your heating bill first.

[Draco-Onis]

You could just say why exactly did you make this question rather then vaguely hinting on some economic theory.

CBR instituted capital controls because CBR assets were frozen on EU side, thus limiting their options for interventions.
So to prevent capital flight and associated negative externalities it instituted capital controls.
Sure, trapping capital inside Russia has negative externalities too; but less then allowing them to freely flee.

Okay let me explain it to you plainly, at the moment capital controls are basically making your businesses take the brunt of the rubble crumbling. Even with inflows your currency being so low is affected because you get less foreign capital. What that means in the short term is that those businesses will go out of business because those controls are destroying their profits.

So you will be in a worse position because if you bail them out you will make your currency worth even less if they fail you will destroy your economy more. Those capital controls are a double edged sword.

[Belize]

Boy Shillcker is going into overdrive flailing in defense of a massive failure.

[Shalcker]

Okay let me explain it to you plainly, at the moment capital controls are basically making your businesses take the brunt of the rubble crumbling. Even with inflows your currency being so low is affected because you get less foreign capital. What that means in the short term is that those businesses will go out of business because those controls are destroying their profits.

Which "those businesses"? Could you be more specific?
Why (previously) profitable businesses would need foreign capital right now if business is likely going to contract either way?
GazProm or RosNeft aren't going out of business.
Small retailers mostly buy from China anyway; they'll take a hit but they got government loans to carry them through lined up.

So you will be in a worse position because if you bail them out you will make your currency worth even less if they fail you will destroy your economy more. Those capital controls are a double edged sword.

You seem to be making a lot of leaps here; and you seem to be making contradicting claims too.

Current rates on Russian markets seem to be well below international - people reported "170 roubles per dollar" in this thread; it never got higher then 126 roubles per dollar on MOEX (and currently it sits at 116).

There is no "runaway" rouble drop; supporting local businesses doesn't automatically make currency worthless.

[Mekh]

Yeah, I hear everything at MOEX is stable and immovable. That tends to happen if you keep it locked down and pretend nothing is happening.

[Shalcker]

Yeah, I hear everything at MOEX is stable and immovable. That tends to happen if you keep it locked down and pretend nothing is happening.

That tends to happen when you stop foreigners from panic sales and force local businesses to sell 80% of their foreign currency within 3 days of transaction.