Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

It's Gilligan's Gulag. Meant to be a weekend excursion. Now they're stuck there.

Funny...nice old schooling...
Ending won't be the same.

[Mihalik]

Busy destroying army that shelled your Donetsk and taking Mariupol.

There is no rush, with destroyed fuel depots every Ukrainian army movement makes their logistics worse.

That's what you call children's hospitals and maternity wards? Fuel deposits? Are you taking it slow to make sure you bomb every school, kindergarten, hospital, maternity ward and Holocaust memorial on the way? Gotta kill 'em all, right?

[Endus]

I am.

The open discussion that has characterised the thread is slipping towards a state where simply being not utterly convinced of Ukrainian victory is wrongthink.

I think it's less "Ukrainian victory is inevitable" and more "Russia has essentially no real path to victory".

There's a wide gap in the middle where there is no victory to be had on either side.

If Ukraine is forced to give up more territory, that's a loss, even if they can preserve their sovereignty over the rest, for instance.

But when it comes to war, you need to consider the objectives. Russia's objectives here weren't open; it certainly wasn't about his publicly-stated objectives. We know those were a lie. His actions suggest he's trying to crush Ukrainian willpower and thus take the country wholesale, or at least, say, the half east of Kyiv.

And in this kind of assessment, whether there's a Russian "victory" comes down not to "did they gain anything", it's "did they achieve their objectives?" And I think it's growing increasingly clear that they won't achieve that objective. They've additionally demonstrated a gross level of tactical incompetence on the world stage, and have clear morale issues throughout their armed forces, given the defections. So those are additional secondary objectives that are clearly failures, and there's little chance any further action could transform those failures into victories.

Putin can't really step it up meaningfully at this point. The Western world is already ramping up to oppose him, mostly in economic and support actions at this point, but if Putin crosses a line, direct military support will be next.

So I simply don't see a path to meaningful victory. He can keep killing Ukrainians and destroying the country. But that just renders it not worth holding, calling into question why he even bothered. He'll continue to bleed troops and materiel throughout, since the major issues have not been resolved. The ball's very much in Ukraine's court; he's pressuring them to submit in the talks, and they're not submitting. It's a case where he might be able to kill them all, but he may not be able to conquer them.

It's like with the USA and Vietnam, or Afghanistan. Those were abject losses. The US spent tons of money and materiel and lives (more so Vietnam) on military action, and failed to achieve any of their long-term goals in the region, eventually retreating in defeat. They may not like to admit that, but that's what "defeat" means; failure to achieve military objectives over the long term; winning battles but not the war​.

[Elegiac]

You got no idea how much Russia can afford in this fight though.

Considering the occupation of Ukraine would take somewhere in the realm of 1-2 million active troops; no, we're pretty damn sure you can't afford it while your economy is in freefall due to the sanctions and everything short of martial law is having to be imposed to crack down on domestic dissent.

[Shadowferal]

Kremlin says Russian economy in 'shock' after sanctions

"Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences; they will be minimised," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on press call, Reuters reported.

"This is absolutely unprecedented. The economic war that has started against our country has never taken place before. So it is very hard to forecast anything," he added.

[Flarelaine]

Things “deteriorated” the moment Russia invaded Ukraine.

I don’t necessary think that anyone believes Ukraine is going to completely flip this. But it’s clear Russia has been majorly knocked on the backfoot. If Ukraine can’t win in wholesale removing Russia from within its borders (and let’s be clear, any sort of “appeasement” simply means that Russia does this again in a few years actually prepared) then at least they can drag Russia down with them. And that’s working so far. There’s no “positive outcome” for Russia here, in the long run, on the trajectory they’re on.

Saying Ukraine needs to surrender or cede to whatever Russia wants out of fear that they’ll kill people in Ukraine just means they’ll be more prepared to kill more people later, after they’ve had a chance to actually coordinate a real assault and find some way to fortify their economy not to hilariously implode.

I think the trick here is just what anyone considers a positive outcome. A Western-style prosperity-focused one is not likely for Russia as things stand... but Russia is an autocracy and what's good for the country does not necessarily inform decision-makers in autocracies. So, while we think increasing isolation is bad for Russian, Putin might love it. He's already talking about disconnecting from the internet and he certainly has been at work to disconnect his people from any information that contradicts his - and that is just one way isolation would help him solidify his rule.

[Elegiac]

I think the trick here is just what anyone considers a positive outcome. A Western-style prosperity-focused one is not likely for Russia as things stand...

Literally no one is arguing this. Stop strawmanning.

[Verdugo]

Kremlin says Russian economy in 'shock' after sanctions

"Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences; they will be minimised," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on press call, Reuters reported.

"This is absolutely unprecedented. The economic war that has started against our country has never taken place before. So it is very hard to forecast anything," he added.

#allaccordingtoplan

[Poopymonster]

Funny...nice old schooling...
Ending won't be the same.

Gilligan's Island was about communism. Almost everyone on the island was a Soviet spy, trying to get to the US to spread communism. Everyone working together, sharing everything. Perfect. Would bring down the capitalists. Each time they got close to leaving? What happened? Gilligan. The stupid American. Always fucking it up. Why did they name the show after him? Bumbling American Gilligan was actually working for the US government. He was intentionally sabotaging their attempts to get to the mainland after seeing what the others stuck on the island had built. He did it to save America. He was a goddamn hero.

Paraphrased from a conversation I overheard by 2 drunks around 3AM outside a Subway in Evansville, IN, circa 1997.

[Shadowferal]

Gilligan's Island was about communism. Almost everyone on the island was a Soviet spy, trying to get to the US to spread communism. Everyone working together, sharing everything. Perfect. Would bring down the capitalists. Each time they got close to leaving? What happened? Gilligan. The stupid American. Always fucking it up. Why did they name the show after him? Bumbling American Gilligan was actually working for the US government. He was intentionally sabotaging their attempts to get to the mainland after seeing what the others stuck on the island had built. He did it to save America. He was a goddamn hero. Paraphrased from a conversation I overheard by 2 drunks around 3AM outside a Subway in Evansville, IN, circa 1997.

I guess they didn't see how it all ended...they eventually get rescued but realized that they couldn't adjust to a world that moved on and became modern. They all realized that the island had everything they could want to keep them comfortable including peace of mind. So they went back...home.

[Arrashi]

You got no idea how much Russia can afford in this fight though.

Like what? Lives of all their VDVs?

[Jessicka]

I think the trick here is just what anyone considers a positive outcome. A Western-style prosperity-focused one is not likely for Russia as things stand... but Russia is an autocracy and what's good for the country does not necessarily inform decision-makers in autocracies. So, while we think increasing isolation is bad for Russian, Putin might love it. He's already talking about disconnecting from the internet and he certainly has been at work to disconnect his people from any information that contradicts his - and that is just one way isolation would help him solidify his rule.

NATO/Europe's objectives aren't "convert Russia to a democracy", we were perfectly happy with a nazi autocracy in charge, so long as it sold fossil fuels and remained largely benign.

It's no longer largely benign. That is a problem, and stopping Russia in its tracks to return to a nature of being benign is all that matters. Part of that will be accomplished by preventing Russia's military objectives in Ukraine being achieved, another part will be by crippling Russia economically and socially so it cannot function as an aggressive state - containment. Whether Russia decides to stick with it's autocratic rule, or find another path is up to Russia, nobody frankly cares at this point. Sticking the bear back in its cage is all that matters.

[Draco-Onis]

Which "those businesses"? Could you be more specific?

The countless businesses that buy and sell overseas.

Why (previously) profitable businesses would need foreign capital right now if business is likely going to contract either way?

Any import/export business is subjected to your Russia's new capital controls to prevent flight, please do keep up.

GazProm or RosNeft aren't going out of business.
Small retailers mostly buy from China anyway; they'll take a hit but they got government loans to carry them through lined up.

You seem to be making a lot of leaps here; and you seem to be making contradicting claims too.

Current rates on Russian markets seem to be well below international - people reported "170 roubles per dollar" in this thread; it never got higher then 126 roubles per dollar on MOEX (and currently it sits at 116).

There is no "runaway" rouble drop; supporting local businesses doesn't automatically make currency worthless.

China is another country you have to deal with currency fluctuation, no company is going to go by the exchange rate you choose they go by the global Forex market not the one you choose. Why would any sane foreign business take the loss on the rouble for you? you seem to be lost let me know if you need me to break things down for you. The state sponsored businesses that have partial exceptions and carve out will survive you may as well be arguing that the Russian government isn't going out of business.

[Breccia]

Kremlin expresses regrets on their economy,

Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences, they will be minimised.

This is absolutely unprecedented. The economic war that has started against our country has never taken place before. So it is very hard to forecast anything.

It's like they thought there would be no consequences, or something.

I have to say, I like the phrasing they're going with. Like, they're legit playing the victim here. "started against our country", lol.

This article has a bunch of interactive charts, showing in moving time how bad the collapsing ruble, Russian inflation, number of sanctions, loss of exports, etc etc are. I'd quote them here, but I'm fairly sure they show Russia being fucked so hard it'd count as pornography.

This other article says Russia built their economy for conflict, but that's not what we're seeing. It's like saying you have an amazing military that plans and brings supplies and that general that died was just someone with the same name, while watching live video of empty tanks and trucks covered with snow and "I quit" left in a ditch. One thing the article points out is, because oil is sold in dollars not rubles, Russia will get lots of rubles for selling its oil. Of course, that means they will continue to pay their government officials with rubles and not dollars...and we know how poorly that's going.

Will Russia survive being the literally most sanctioned country on the planet? I mean, "survive" yes. But most fiscal experts who aren't eating rotting turnips expect that Russia's Q2 GDP will take a hit worse than COVID. And they did it to themselves, on purpose. If their economy was built for a battle, it's clearly one with heavy casualties.

[XDurionX]

Kremlin says Russian economy in 'shock' after sanctions

"Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences; they will be minimised," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on press call, Reuters reported.

"This is absolutely unprecedented. The economic war that has started against our country has never taken place before. So it is very hard to forecast anything," he added.

The Kremlin has no idea how much Russia can afford in this fight though.

Just vague words, not even an estimate we could eventually check to see "Russia passed it, has to back down" or "Russia never even got close to it in the end".

///tenchars

[Dontrike]

Is this the same guy that claimed Trump was playing some sort of masterful chess game during his time as president?

One of many at least.

[AntiFascistVoter]

///tenchars

Was "Tankies rooting for Fascists" on your 2022 bingo card?


Sadly I had it on mine, because Jacobin is a thing.

American funding for a long-term Ukrainian insurgency, aiming to do to Russia what two decades in Afghanistan did to the United States, would be a disaster.

They wish Russia can hold out that long.


Jacobin, the DSA IC, and the podcasters that copypasta them, have really embarrassed themselves over Ukraine.
The Online Left needs to rethink whom they look too as Thought Leaders and save themselves.

[Dontrike]

And condemning everyone not completely convinced of Righteous Victory is also wrong.

Is that what you think is happening? That Shackler is someone that is "not convinced"? Really?

We know for a fact Russia's invasion hasn't gone as planned for them, to an extremely embarrassing degree. Yes, they have tens of thousands more troops to go, but what was supposed to be "20 minute adventure. In and out" has become a complete fuck up of Russia's economy, Ukraine is really no closer to being taken over as it was a year ago, and it's only getting worse for Putin and them. That can't be denied.

[Shalcker]

That's what you call children's hospitals and maternity wards? Fuel deposits?

No, there are actual fuel depots going up in flames.

[Dontrike]

You got no idea how much Russia can afford in this fight though.

Right now Russia can't afford to feed its soldiers.