1. #9001
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    That's what you call children's hospitals and maternity wards? Fuel deposits?
    No, there are actual fuel depots going up in flames.

  2. #9002
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    You got no idea how much Russia can afford in this fight though.
    Right now Russia can't afford to feed its soldiers.

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  3. #9003
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Okay but how does that excuse y'all shelling civilian areas including hospitals?
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  4. #9004
    Scarab Lord MCMLXXXII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Okay but how does that excuse y'all shelling civilian areas including hospitals?
    There was a car parked near the children's hospital. Russians count a car as a fuel depot.

  5. #9005
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    The countless businesses that buy and sell overseas.
    Did you remember to check their contributions to overall figures? They aren't "countless" at all.

    Any import/export business is subjected to your Russia's new capital controls to prevent flight, please do keep up.
    They still can buy and sell foreign currency on MOEX. They still can buy and sell goods abroad.

    Why would they need foreign capital specifically? What exactly in capital controls prevents them from operations or profits?

    China is another country you have to deal with currency fluctuation, no company is going to go by the exchange rate you choose they go by the global Forex market not the one you choose. Why would any sane foreign business take the loss on the rouble for you? you seem to be lost let me know if you need me to break things down for you. The state sponsored businesses that have partial exceptions and carve out will survive you may as well be arguing that the Russian government isn't going out of business.
    At the moment Ali Express just hiked rouble prices x3-x4.

    Which can potentially still turn into profits for businesses using it.

  6. #9006
    Quote Originally Posted by Dontrike View Post
    Is that what you think is happening? That Shackler is someone that is "not convinced"? Really?
    No. I had some other posters in mind, who, while not carrying water for Russia, were still trying to be cautious about the affair.

  7. #9007
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Note that probability wasn't zero; sometimes rare events do happen - like when Trump was projected to lose in 2016.
    Your what-aboutism misses that there are two major differences:
    • Trump was projected to have a 20-30% chance of winning; not 0.1% as your "prediction".
    • Pollsters saw that as a problem and tried to investigate if they should improve their models; your "prediction" missed something that you thought was 200 times less likely and you continue on as if nothing happened.
    The reason for that is that pollsters have some degree of honesty and want to give the best possible predictions.

    In hindsight there are also indications that the Russian attack on Ukraine was pre-planned since a long time, e.g., gas-storage in Europe was at lower levels this year than last year due to Gazprom delivering less.

    Or in summary: since your prediction fell short and you don't see it as a problem, I don't see that any other "prediction" from you have any credence.

  8. #9008
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Okay but how does that excuse y'all shelling civilian areas including hospitals?
    You know, between bombing schools, hospitals, apartment blocks, they occasionally miss and hit a fuel deposit.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post

    They still can buy and sell foreign currency on MOEX. They still can buy and sell goods abroad.
    Which MOEX? The one that has been closed for two weeks?

  9. #9009
    I wonder what the morale is like in the Russian army right now, it can't be a great feeling being ordered to bomb hospitals and deny humanitarian aid to civilians. There's definitely some psychopathic individuals in the world that are incapable of feeling empathy and basic human decency, but I can't imagine the hundreds of thousands strong army are all like that.
    Your persistence of vision does not come without great sacrifice. Let go of the tangible mass of your mind, it is only an illusion. There is no escape.. For the soul burns on everlasting encapsulated within infinite time. A thousand year journey at the blink of an eye... Humanity is dust..

  10. #9010
    Quote Originally Posted by XDurionX View Post
    ///tenchars
    Actual words are "We aren't going to make predictions because it's pointless; we will be trying to minimize negative consequences".

    So, again, what do you think Russia can afford?

  11. #9011
    Quote Originally Posted by Vakna View Post
    I wonder what the morale is like in the Russian army right now, it can't be a great feeling being ordered to bomb hospitals and deny humanitarian aid to civilians. There's definitely some psychopathic individuals in the world that are incapable of feeling empathy and basic human decency, but I can't imagine the hundreds of thousands strong army are all like that.
    From what little we know the morale is little, if any. They were sending commanders out to raise morale, but they keep getting picked off.

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  12. #9012
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vakna View Post
    I wonder what the morale is like in the Russian army right now, it can't be a great feeling being ordered to bomb hospitals and deny humanitarian aid to civilians. There's definitely some psychopathic individuals in the world that are incapable of feeling empathy and basic human decency, but I can't imagine the hundreds of thousands strong army are all like that.
    Answer: Morale is in the toilet.

    Why has Russia struggled? While analysts have mostly focused on hardware and doctrine, many of Russia’s problems can be traced to a single source: low morale.

    Scholars have long argued that combat motivation — the willingness to fight and die — shapes military effectiveness. Russia’s military is riddled with social and economic inequalities that undermine morale. These inequalities create obstacles and inefficiencies that warp Russian operations, preventing the military from maximizing its combat power.

    Evidence is mounting that many Russian soldiers are reluctant to fight. Social media is littered with videos of lost and hungry soldiers looting, begging for food or ditching their tanks and trucks. Captured soldiers have expressed confusion about the war’s purpose and have surrendered once they discovered they were not on a training exercise. Hundreds of armored vehicles have been abandoned or captured by Ukrainian forces and, in at least one case, by a local farmer.

    Many of Russian equipment losses have been because of abandonment and capture, not destruction. Indeed, dozens of videos of lines of stranded military equipment can be found on TikTok. Russian military authorities have threatened physical abuse or worse to enforce discipline in some units.
    The article goes on to point out other factors impacting morale; the huge disparity between volunteer and conscripts, Russia's reliance on said conscripts to handle logistics, the fact even volunteer troops weren't given a complete mission profile until the eleventh hour, and the fact the Kremlin outright denies that it's using conscripts, et cetera.

    Even on the home front, the fact that there are such severe media and protest controls being enforced is further sign of the war's unpopularity. Secure regimes implementing policies with a clear popular mandate have absolutely no need to suppress dissent.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2022-03-10 at 05:01 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  13. #9013
    Old God Milchshake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    No. I had some other posters in mind, who, while not carrying water for Russia, were still trying to be cautious about the affair.
    Do mods realize that chronic lies and manipulation are a form of psychological abuse? It's lame that a handful of user are continually allowed to abuse so many others here.

    Don't be complicit.

  14. #9014
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Which MOEX? The one that has been closed for two weeks?
    Stocks exchange is closed; currency exchange is open.

  15. #9015
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dontrike View Post
    Right now Russia can't afford to feed its soldiers.
    Even if it could, it has no way of getting the food to them

  16. #9016
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Stocks exchange is closed; currency exchange is open.
    Foreign currency sales have also been halted until September. Stop lying.

    The only thing Russians can do with foreign currency is hand it over to the government in exchange for a worthless currency (i.e. Robux Rubles). That is not the sign of a healthy economy; that's the regime fleecing its civilians by hoarding the only actual store of value.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2022-03-10 at 05:07 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  17. #9017
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Actual words are "We aren't going to make predictions because it's pointless; we will be trying to minimize negative consequences".

    So, again, what do you think Russia can afford?
    Well i can tell you what they can't afford:
    - north of 10% GDP loss per year
    - bombing civilian targets
    - locking up journalists and tens of thousands of protestors, making it illegal to tell the truth
    - following a madman with Parkinson's into a futile death over an illegal war

  18. #9018
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dontrike View Post
    From what little we know the morale is little, if any. They were sending commanders out to raise morale, but they keep getting picked off.
    TBF seeing the rich out of touch officer that sent you out in Ukraine with no supplies in the middle of winter getting picked off is probably a pretty good morale boost.

  19. #9019
    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    A majority of Western posters seem to have drunk the "UKRAINE STR0NK" Kool-aid.

    It is understandable - they have put up a heroic stand and they keep struggling against incredible odds. But I think taking their victory for granted is foolish. And condemning everyone not completely convinced of Righteous Victory is also wrong. If anything, it is not the Western way. Various outcomes have been offered ranging from visions of Russian domination to Ukrainian glory. Either of those and anything in between may yet come to pass, so do not hound out anyone for being skeptical of your vision of victory.
    Russia have already lost when they failed to sweep in and take any major cities in the first few days causing Ukraine to surrender. Its not a case of "UKRAINE STR0NK" its Russia's military being inept and unable to do the basics like not over extending supply lines, lying to the troops about it being a peace keeping or training mission, not following agreed ceasefires to let civilians escape and then bombing them. Nobody is any doubt they are going to try to slaughter their way to victory and a lot of Ukrainians are going to end up dead.

    In the long run the sanctions will start to hurt Russia more and more, the Russian people have got used to having nice things in the shops since the fall of USSR, putting that cork back in the bottle and going back to how thing were in the 1960/70/80's with nothing on the shelves will be a hard pill to swallow for many, especially younger people who were born after the fall and have known no different.
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Wealth inequality is here to stay, sometimes it's just how lifes cookie crumbles and all of society is better off for it.
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    But from what I can see it is quite probable Æthelstan was the first Brexiteer, likely the Farage of his age seeing off the European continentals in the very first successful Brexit.

  20. #9020
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Russia's central bank has opened trading on its currency market, even as it separately stopped the sale of foreign currencies.

    Bolded part is "currency exchange still working"; "stopped the sale of foreign currencies" only applies to physical banknotes, together with introducing limits to convertibility of citizen bank deposits in foreign currencies into same physical dollars (you can get 10k$ in dollars and the rest in roubles).

    Companies can still operate with foreign currencies as long as they sell 80% of any currency they get at current exchange rate within 3 days of getting it.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-03-10 at 05:21 PM.

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