Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elegiac]

No, there are actual fuel depots going up in flames.

Okay but how does that excuse y'all shelling civilian areas including hospitals?

[MCMLXXXII]

Okay but how does that excuse y'all shelling civilian areas including hospitals?

There was a car parked near the children's hospital. Russians count a car as a fuel depot.

[Shalcker]

The countless businesses that buy and sell overseas.

Did you remember to check their contributions to overall figures? They aren't "countless" at all.

Any import/export business is subjected to your Russia's new capital controls to prevent flight, please do keep up.

They still can buy and sell foreign currency on MOEX. They still can buy and sell goods abroad.

Why would they need foreign capital specifically? What exactly in capital controls prevents them from operations or profits?

China is another country you have to deal with currency fluctuation, no company is going to go by the exchange rate you choose they go by the global Forex market not the one you choose. Why would any sane foreign business take the loss on the rouble for you? you seem to be lost let me know if you need me to break things down for you. The state sponsored businesses that have partial exceptions and carve out will survive you may as well be arguing that the Russian government isn't going out of business.

At the moment Ali Express just hiked rouble prices x3-x4.

Which can potentially still turn into profits for businesses using it.

[Flarelaine]

Is that what you think is happening? That Shackler is someone that is "not convinced"? Really?

No. I had some other posters in mind, who, while not carrying water for Russia, were still trying to be cautious about the affair.

[Forogil]

Note that probability wasn't zero; sometimes rare events do happen - like when Trump was projected to lose in 2016.

Your what-aboutism misses that there are two major differences:

• Trump was projected to have a 20-30% chance of winning; not 0.1% as your "prediction".
• Pollsters saw that as a problem and tried to investigate if they should improve their models; your "prediction" missed something that you thought was 200 times less likely and you continue on as if nothing happened.

The reason for that is that pollsters have some degree of honesty and want to give the best possible predictions.

In hindsight there are also indications that the Russian attack on Ukraine was pre-planned since a long time, e.g., gas-storage in Europe was at lower levels this year than last year due to Gazprom delivering less.

Or in summary: since your prediction fell short and you don't see it as a problem, I don't see that any other "prediction" from you have any credence.

[Mihalik]

Okay but how does that excuse y'all shelling civilian areas including hospitals?

You know, between bombing schools, hospitals, apartment blocks, they occasionally miss and hit a fuel deposit.

- - - Updated - - -

They still can buy and sell foreign currency on MOEX. They still can buy and sell goods abroad.

Which MOEX? The one that has been closed for two weeks?

[Vakna]

I wonder what the morale is like in the Russian army right now, it can't be a great feeling being ordered to bomb hospitals and deny humanitarian aid to civilians. There's definitely some psychopathic individuals in the world that are incapable of feeling empathy and basic human decency, but I can't imagine the hundreds of thousands strong army are all like that.

[Shalcker]

///tenchars

Actual words are "We aren't going to make predictions because it's pointless; we will be trying to minimize negative consequences".

So, again, what do you think Russia can afford?

[Dontrike]

I wonder what the morale is like in the Russian army right now, it can't be a great feeling being ordered to bomb hospitals and deny humanitarian aid to civilians. There's definitely some psychopathic individuals in the world that are incapable of feeling empathy and basic human decency, but I can't imagine the hundreds of thousands strong army are all like that.

From what little we know the morale is little, if any. They were sending commanders out to raise morale, but they keep getting picked off.

[Elegiac]

I wonder what the morale is like in the Russian army right now, it can't be a great feeling being ordered to bomb hospitals and deny humanitarian aid to civilians. There's definitely some psychopathic individuals in the world that are incapable of feeling empathy and basic human decency, but I can't imagine the hundreds of thousands strong army are all like that.

Answer: Morale is in the toilet.

Why has Russia struggled? While analysts have mostly focused on hardware and doctrine, many of Russia’s problems can be traced to a single source: low morale.

Scholars have long argued that combat motivation — the willingness to fight and die — shapes military effectiveness. Russia’s military is riddled with social and economic inequalities that undermine morale. These inequalities create obstacles and inefficiencies that warp Russian operations, preventing the military from maximizing its combat power.

Evidence is mounting that many Russian soldiers are reluctant to fight. Social media is littered with videos of lost and hungry soldiers looting, begging for food or ditching their tanks and trucks. Captured soldiers have expressed confusion about the war’s purpose and have surrendered once they discovered they were not on a training exercise. Hundreds of armored vehicles have been abandoned or captured by Ukrainian forces and, in at least one case, by a local farmer.

Many of Russian equipment losses have been because of abandonment and capture, not destruction. Indeed, dozens of videos of lines of stranded military equipment can be found on TikTok. Russian military authorities have threatened physical abuse or worse to enforce discipline in some units.

The article goes on to point out other factors impacting morale; the huge disparity between volunteer and conscripts, Russia's reliance on said conscripts to handle logistics, the fact even volunteer troops weren't given a complete mission profile until the eleventh hour, and the fact the Kremlin outright denies that it's using conscripts, et cetera.

Even on the home front, the fact that there are such severe media and protest controls being enforced is further sign of the war's unpopularity. Secure regimes implementing policies with a clear popular mandate have absolutely no need to suppress dissent.

[AntiFascistVoter]

No. I had some other posters in mind, who, while not carrying water for Russia, were still trying to be cautious about the affair.

Do mods realize that chronic lies and manipulation are a form of psychological abuse? It's lame that a handful of user are continually allowed to abuse so many others here.

Don't be complicit.

[Shalcker]

Which MOEX? The one that has been closed for two weeks?

Stocks exchange is closed; currency exchange is open.

[Belize]

Right now Russia can't afford to feed its soldiers.

Even if it could, it has no way of getting the food to them

[Elegiac]

Stocks exchange is closed; currency exchange is open.

Foreign currency sales have also been halted until September. Stop lying.

The only thing Russians can do with foreign currency is hand it over to the government in exchange for a worthless currency (i.e. Robux Rubles). That is not the sign of a healthy economy; that's the regime fleecing its civilians by hoarding the only actual store of value.

[XDurionX]

Actual words are "We aren't going to make predictions because it's pointless; we will be trying to minimize negative consequences".

So, again, what do you think Russia can afford?

Well i can tell you what they can't afford:
- north of 10% GDP loss per year
- bombing civilian targets
- locking up journalists and tens of thousands of protestors, making it illegal to tell the truth
- following a madman with Parkinson's into a futile death over an illegal war

[Belize]

From what little we know the morale is little, if any. They were sending commanders out to raise morale, but they keep getting picked off.

TBF seeing the rich out of touch officer that sent you out in Ukraine with no supplies in the middle of winter getting picked off is probably a pretty good morale boost.

[Iliena]

A majority of Western posters seem to have drunk the "UKRAINE STR0NK" Kool-aid.

It is understandable - they have put up a heroic stand and they keep struggling against incredible odds. But I think taking their victory for granted is foolish. And condemning everyone not completely convinced of Righteous Victory is also wrong. If anything, it is not the Western way. Various outcomes have been offered ranging from visions of Russian domination to Ukrainian glory. Either of those and anything in between may yet come to pass, so do not hound out anyone for being skeptical of your vision of victory.

Russia have already lost when they failed to sweep in and take any major cities in the first few days causing Ukraine to surrender. Its not a case of "UKRAINE STR0NK" its Russia's military being inept and unable to do the basics like not over extending supply lines, lying to the troops about it being a peace keeping or training mission, not following agreed ceasefires to let civilians escape and then bombing them. Nobody is any doubt they are going to try to slaughter their way to victory and a lot of Ukrainians are going to end up dead.

In the long run the sanctions will start to hurt Russia more and more, the Russian people have got used to having nice things in the shops since the fall of USSR, putting that cork back in the bottle and going back to how thing were in the 1960/70/80's with nothing on the shelves will be a hard pill to swallow for many, especially younger people who were born after the fall and have known no different.

[Shalcker]

Foreign currency sales have also been halted until September. Stop lying.

Russia's central bank has opened trading on its currency market, even as it separately stopped the sale of foreign currencies.

Bolded part is "currency exchange still working"; "stopped the sale of foreign currencies" only applies to physical banknotes, together with introducing limits to convertibility of citizen bank deposits in foreign currencies into same physical dollars (you can get 10k$ in dollars and the rest in roubles).

Companies can still operate with foreign currencies as long as they sell 80% of any currency they get at current exchange rate within 3 days of getting it.

[dextersmith]

Kremlin expresses regrets on their economy,



It's like they thought there would be no consequences, or something.

I have to say, I like the phrasing they're going with. Like, they're legit playing the victim here. "started against our country", lol.

This article has a bunch of interactive charts, showing in moving time how bad the collapsing ruble, Russian inflation, number of sanctions, loss of exports, etc etc are. I'd quote them here, but I'm fairly sure they show Russia being fucked so hard it'd count as pornography.

This other article says Russia built their economy for conflict, but that's not what we're seeing. It's like saying you have an amazing military that plans and brings supplies and that general that died was just someone with the same name, while watching live video of empty tanks and trucks covered with snow and "I quit" left in a ditch. One thing the article points out is, because oil is sold in dollars not rubles, Russia will get lots of rubles for selling its oil. Of course, that means they will continue to pay their government officials with rubles and not dollars...and we know how poorly that's going.

Will Russia survive being the literally most sanctioned country on the planet? I mean, "survive" yes. But most fiscal experts who aren't eating rotting turnips expect that Russia's Q2 GDP will take a hit worse than COVID. And they did it to themselves, on purpose. If their economy was built for a battle, it's clearly one with heavy casualties.

They regret being in financial turmoil but not the shit they've done to others. Always the victim. What would they buy anyway? So many countries and large corporations are boycotting them and they can't even send payments eg. with visa. A billion dollars couldn't buy you a big mac within Russia.

[Elegiac]

Bolded part is "currency exchange is still working"; "stopped the sale of foreign currencies" only applies to physical banknotes, together with introducing limits to citizen bank deposits in foreign currencies.

Companies can still operate with foreign currencies as long as they sell any currency they get at current exchange rate within 3 days of getting it.

I.e. exactly what I said about there not being actual trade in currency but an effort by the regime to hoard the only actual store of value and leave citizens at large with an increasingly worthless currency. This is not a sign of a healthy economy.

You're not helping your point here. Rofl.