Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Belize]

oh great, the clown car posters are stepping out again.

It was a good 2 weeks.

[Xyonai]

Nuclear war is not a guaranteed consequence of enforcing a no-fly zone.

Yeah but nobody wants to lose a game of Nuclear Chicken.

[YUPPIE]

also, can someone explain why Putin is in hiding? Why doesn't he just walk around in public like before? If someone believes he will get assassinated for doing so, he has the hypothetical dead man's switch where his cronies will take his death as a sign to use nukes. He can't be arrested either with that scenario in mind, as they would take it as the same thing.

What's stopping him from showing up to U.N meetings and outside the region despite Biden's claims of him being a "pariah?" Nothing could really stop him.

As far as being murdered by his own countrymen instead, pretty sure all government officials are on his side and horribly corrupt from their enforcement of police suppression on civilians.

[Kallisto]

Nuclear war is not a guaranteed consequence of enforcing a no-fly zone.

No but it is a huge possibility.

Seriously are people born after 1990 not taught about the years between 1945 and 1991 where basically everyone was smart enough to know that no matter what fucked up shit the other side did, direct interfering was not on the table?

[david0925]

It was a good 2 weeks.

I miss it already

[Milchshake]

Yeah but nobody wants to lose a game of Nuclear Chicken.

Sounds reasonable ... but have you meet an Incel or Accelerationist?

[Elegiac]

also, can someone explain why Putin is in hiding? Why doesn't he just walk around in public like before?

People with compromised immune systems probably don't want to be hanging around in public even during the tail end of the pandemic.

Also, it's not clear if the "dead man's switch" for Russian nukes is actually a thing, or if it's still functional even if it was a thing at one point.

[Mihalik]

Nuclear war is not a guaranteed consequence of enforcing a no-fly zone.

It almost is. Again...ENFORCING a no fly zone by definition means the willingness to shoot down Russian planes. NATO doing it. NATO pilots and soldiers doing it. As I said, the Russians clearly don't fucking stand a snowballs chance in hell in a straight up fight. They will either have to admit they are getting their asses handed to them and back out (which the Russians are psychologically incapable of) or escalate, and the only way they can escalate is nukes, because that's all they have.

[YUPPIE]

People with compromised immune systems probably don't want to be hanging around in public even during the tail end of the pandemic.

he has COVID??

[Slant]

Two stories, 69m2. Reading comprehension. 110 m3 is his gas spending a month. But you said you were up to date with German energy prices. Go to the Vattenfall website and type in a 70m2, that's square because you don't seem to the difference between square and cubic, and 2 person household. In Germany that will also cost you at least 300 a month now. But you're ignoring that because you're still trying to push the narrative that my calculations were wrong and you do not want to admit you were wrong.

Yeah, sux2bu, I guess.

[Kallisto]

he has COVID??

He may have done when his inner circle all did back in september.

[MCMLXXXII]

he has COVID??

He is afraid of getting it. Although he is vaccinated with the Super safe Russian vaccine, " my daughter was one of the first".

[Breccia]

While I largely agree with you, bankruns ARE rational behaviour.

This is a well-given description, but you left out one part: the prisoners are caught and in jail. Their situation is not good, no matter what. The Prisoner's Dilemna does not happen to two people who made good decisions and whose life is going great.

Related, bank runs don't happen when everything is fine. They happen when there's enough evidence that the bank/banking system is in trouble to the point that the question is even raised. If you told, for example, Germany, "Your banks are not safe and they'll collapse shortly" you'd get a bunch of blank stares. There's zero evidence that Germany is in that kind of trouble, banking or otherwise. Nothing would happen.

In Russia? The evidence is on every street corner. It's in every shop, every home, every news broadcast, and yes, every bank. The banks had to put up a bunch of new rules, desperately bribing people with stupid-high interest rates just to put their money back in. This is not what banks do when things are going well. This is a reverse fire sale. "It's only for three months" is also one of the most pitiful lack-of-defenses I've seen on these forums. Also, considering what's happening to Russia's inflation, their GDP, and their ruble, 20% ain't shit. Remember, a ruble was 0.013 dollars in mid-Feb. It's 0.0075 now. That's way more of a loss than 20% for 3 months can possibly overtake. If you didn't withdraw dollars, you got fucked.

Now again, The Prisoner's Dilemna is a good depiction, but the underlying premise needs to be considered. The DA doesn't knock on random-ass doors and offer them a plea deal. They offer it to people in handcuffs in a room with a one-way mirror. Even if, as you rightly suggest, every single Russia leaves their money in the bank, they'd minimize the remaining damage. But they are still stuck with rubles, which are worth as much as a Putin promise to not kill journalists.

Those Russians who got their money in dollars basically won the dilemna, and in many cases I'm guessing that happened because (breaking the Dilemna here) they knew ahead of time what was going to happen. I'm sure Putin's until-recently allies had some dollars and euros tucked away, but I'm guessing the average Russian does not. Meanwhile, the Russian goverment and therefore banks moved as quickly as they could to lock down the remaining useful currency (i.e. anything not a ruble) for themselves. Doing so moves the Prisoner's Dilemna from offering two people the chance to rat each other out, to a larger number like six, while the deal is only available for one. Hmm, a gambling game named for Russia in which someone gets really fucked. There should be a name for that.

Since you seem interested, I'll briefly mention there is a variant of the Prisoner's Dilemna where the same people play the same game over and over. It doesn't take long for cooperation to be required, since otherwise, the cycle of revenge kicks in and everyone loses far more. It doesn't apply here, once the Russian bank is out it's out, but it's worth a look.

[DarkAmbient]

No but it is a huge possibility.

Seriously are people born after 1990 not taught about the years between 1945 and 1991 where basically everyone was smart enough to know that no matter what fucked up shit the other side did, direct interfering was not on the table?

I was born quite some time before 1990, not that it's relevant. I don't believe Putin would resort to using nukes, because MAD.

[Elegiac]

he has COVID??

He might have had it at one point, but what I'm referring to is the fact he likely has some sort of illness requiring treatment that compromises your immune system.

Hence why he looks so bloated. That's a side effect of corticosteroids.

[YUPPIE]

He is afraid of getting it. Although he is vaccinated with the Super safe Russian vaccine, " my daughter was one of the first".

i thought he has no fear and that's the image he cultivates for himself. makes him seem like a pussy.

[Breccia]

Also, it's not clear if the "dead man's switch" for Russian nukes is actually a thing, or if it's still functional even if it was a thing at one point.

Indeed.

One, it sounds like a conspiracy theory. One Putin would promote to keep himself alive while systematically ruining his country for his own benefit.

Two, it sounds like if it did exist, it would require other human beings to value revenge over Putin's death over the existence of their country and the world. Maybe a year ago we could have discussed that with a straight face. Gosh. Kind of a lot's changed in the last two weeks. Putin made a lot of his friends poor and also made the military look like a bunch of chumps on live TV. Putin shouldn't just be worried that the people he gave this dead man's switch to won't heed its call. He should be worred they beat him to death with it.

Three, if it did exist and is still "armed", Russia's communications are not in the best place right now. A "you have to hear from me every day or you launch nukes" kind of plan fails when it's possible you might not hear from anyone because your coms are down.

[Iphie]

Also, it's not clear if the "dead man's switch" for Russian nukes is actually a thing, or if it's still functional even if it was a thing at one point.

My understanding is that it is a thing, but it only goes off if it detects nuclear impacts. But as you say, who knows. It almost certainly won't be linked to the leader being alive or dead as that would make it really impractical in case of sudden death due to natural causes or an accident.

[Elegiac]

Indeed.

One, it sounds like a conspiracy theory. One Putin would promote to keep himself alive while systematically ruining his country for his own benefit.

Two, it sounds like if it did exist, it would require other human beings to value revenge over Putin's death over the existence of their country and the world. Maybe a year ago we could have discussed that with a straight face. Gosh. Kind of a lot's changed in the last two weeks. Putin made a lot of his friends poor and also made the military look like a bunch of chumps on live TV. Putin shouldn't just be worried that the people he gave this dead man's switch to won't heed its call. He should be worred they beat him to death with it.

Three, if it did exist and is still "armed", Russia's communications are not in the best place right now. A "you have to hear from me every day or you launch nukes" kind of plan fails when it's possible you might not hear from anyone because your coms are down.

To say nothing of the fact that in order for such a switch to be useful your nukes actually need to... you know... work.

We've no idea how much of the Russian nuclear arsenal is actually functional.

[Milchshake]

He might have had it at one point, but what I'm referring to is the fact he likely has some sort of illness requiring treatment that compromises your immune system.

Hence why he looks so bloated. That's a side effect of corticosteroids.

Hmmmm also a symptom of long term abuse of cocaine and barbituates. Doctors pumping up an aging autocrat with crazy ass drugs. Basically Hitler, again.