Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elegiac]

Tell me when London opens their Nickel trade.

There's a difference between halting trades on a specific commodity due to volatility and, like... shutting down the entire stock exchange for two weeks and counting because the whole economy is collapsing. Rofl.

But sure it's totally fine that a WoW Token costs a fifth of monthly wages and Robux are seen as a more valuable currency.

[Jessicka]

*Image of a guy looking at butterfly*
Text: Is that a Bank Run?

Any queue is a bank run, sure, habibi, whatever you say.

Weird, a few pages back you accepted there were bank runs and tried to explain them. Now there are no bank runs?

You got FSB there with you updating the official position?

[draynay]

I don't really see the value in continuing to debate with someone who claimed there's nothing wrong with bombing children's hospitals.

[dextersmith]

The weimar republic was before wwii. your picture even has it in the name, 1922

To be (more) exact
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic
1919 to 1933

Opps. It's been a long time since high school.

[Jessicka]

I don't really see the value in continuing to debate with someone who claimed there's nothing wrong with bombing children's hospitals.

There was no children’s hospital, there were no bombs, no invasion, no war, no bank runs. Just special military operation. All goes to plan. No Russian casualties, no conscripts. Ukrainians bomb and shoot them selves only.

There are no sanctions either, Russian government kicked foreign companies out of Russia because Russia great and doesn’t need foreign junk.

That’s basically what we eventually get to with him.

[Mayhem]

While I largely agree with you, bankruns ARE rational behaviour. This specific scenario is called the prisoners dilemma, an example of game theory.

In the prisoners dilemma you have 2 parties that each have to make a 2 option choice, without knowing what the other does. They can choose to either save yourself by selling out the other, or standing united.

- if both parties chose the united option, they both recieve a relatively minor penalty
- if both parties choose to save themselves, they both get a normal penalty
- if one party choses to save themselves, while the other party chooses to stand united, the person who “stands united” gets fucked with a harsh penalty, while the “save themselves” party gets off without a penalty.

In this scenario the real best choice for the group would indeed be to both stand united. The total penalty on average is quite mild. The thing is that for your individual outcome, its always best to rat the other out.

Thats whats happening here. Collectively they’re better off with money in the bank. If the others cash in and I dont, theres a good chance the bank falls over and I get nothing.

Yeah, not really, the best outcome for yourself and everyone is to leave your savings in the banks, because if you take it out and the bank topples, your money is worthless.

[Breccia]

Google Cloud blocks Russia.

The announcement is the latest action from Google and other tech companies who have sought to punish Moscow and distance themselves from its war in Ukraine.

“We can confirm we are not accepting new Google Cloud customers in Russia at this time. We will continue to closely monitor developments,” a Google spokesperson said in a statement.

Burger King blocks Russia. So did Little Caesar's, but not because of Ukraine, because Putin thought they were mocking him.

Goldman Sachs blocks Russia. Apparently, at some point, so did Citigroup.

Man, no wonder the ruble is falling. Oh, did you know there are currency evulations other than MOEX? They're called "the rest of the world" and "the free market". Russia could declare one ruble is worth a million dollars, doesn't matter, they've banned currency exchange, their evaluation is meaningless.

[jonnysensible]

damn this was pretty brutal : https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/st...00265490227206

I saw that forecourt in a reddit video because one of the chechens got captured (he broke into the petrol station after his squad got slaughtered and got drunk and went to sleep)

[Forogil]

He is afraid of getting it. Although he is vaccinated with the Super safe Russian vaccine, " my daughter was one of the first".

You mean 'one of my daughters was one of the first', but I will not tell you which daughter in case she accidentally catches covid (the reports that she died after the vaccination seems to be fake news).

[Shalcker]

Weird, a few pages back you accepted there were bank runs and tried to explain them. Now there are no bank runs?

Maybe you just didn't read them.

It isn't "bank run" if bank is never in danger of insolvency or being closed down.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Maybe you just didn't read them.

It isn't "bank run" if bank is never in danger of insolvency or being closed down.

Wrong. It's a bank run if enough people try to take money out. Whether it's in real danger or imagined is irrelevant.

You don't just get to make up definitions of words or phrases to suit whatever lie you're pedalling. That's not how language works.

[Jessicka]

Maybe you just didn't read them.

It isn't "bank run" if bank is never in danger of insolvency or being closed down.

It clearly is, because it happened here in 2008.

[Zan15]

Maybe you just didn't read them.

It isn't "bank run" if bank is never in danger of insolvency or being closed down.

Wrong.

A bank run is based on the FEAR that the bank is in danger of insolvency, even if there is 99.9999~% chance it never would.

[XDurionX]

damn this was pretty brutal : https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/st...00265490227206

I saw that forecourt in a reddit video because one of the chechens got captured (he broke into the petrol station after his squad got slaughtered and got drunk and went to sleep)

I wonder how long you'd go to jail if you shared this among russians.

[Poopymonster]

I wonder how long you'd go to jail if you shared this among russians.

For the rest of your life.

[jonnysensible]

saw the OSINT peoples list of the vehicle losses with visual confirmation atm :

Russia - 1020, of which: destroyed: 414, damaged: 13, abandoned: 159, captured: 434
Ukraine - 284, of which: destroyed: 98, damaged: 5, abandoned: 43, captured: 138

Every time I see a Ukrainian unit they have rpgs/stingers/nlaws/javalins. Just chewing these fuckers up.

[Mihalik]

saw the OSINT peoples list of the vehicle losses with visual confirmation atm :

Russia - 1020, of which: destroyed: 414, damaged: 13, abandoned: 159, captured: 434
Ukraine - 284, of which: destroyed: 98, damaged: 5, abandoned: 43, captured: 138

Every time I see a Ukrainian unit they have rpgs/stingers/nlaws/javalins. Just chewing these fuckers up.

We need to keep sending those launchers until every last Ukrainian grandmother is dual wielding them.

[Zan15]

We need to keep sending those launchers until every last Ukrainian grandmother is dual wielding them.

strap them to the sharks too...pew pew sharks with rocket launchers.

Yes i know there are no sharks over there, sheesh. maybe dogs?

[Draco-Onis]

Maybe you just didn't read them.

It isn't "bank run" if bank is never in danger of insolvency or being closed down.

If the banks weren't in danger of insolvency your central banks would not have put withdraw restrictions and lower capital requirements. Of course this only slows down the bleeding and delaying the inevitable, monetary policies are not going to solve this.

[Breccia]

Disney escalates, pausing all Russian business, not just new movie releases.

In a related story: Putin's propaganda is failing.

So apparently, recently, Russia floated the idea that the CIA funded chemical/biological weapons labs in Ukraine. This is, of course, complete bullshit. But the theory is Russia is saying this, because they're prepping to use such weapons on the Ukrainian people themselves and want to blame US.

A plan brought down, and this is the funniest thing I've seen all day, was...food poisoning.

No, really. Putin cried wolf and nobody bought it, even as they came here and tried to sell it themselves. Because, you know, they'd starve to death if they didn't.

Putin is even now claiming "crisis actors". No, really. Putin's that desperate. Problem is, well the problem is he's murdering a lot of people, but the disinformation problem is, Russia got things like YouTube and Twitter. Once they got access to information that wasn't Putin, the damage was done. Removing access doesn't change that.

The realities of killed and wounded coming home in increasing numbers, the realities of the economic consequences for ordinary Russians...the realities of the horrific scenes of hospitals and schools being bombed next door in Ukraine — I don't think he can bottle up the truth indefinitely

-- CIA Director, under oath

Just like the ruble, Putin's lies have no value, and Russians know this. That's why they're looking elsewhere. See also: bank runs.

The Russian Central Bank is running out of options

The CBR has dealt with many challenges since the global financial crisis—but it has never lent out more than what it had backed up in foreign exchange and other safe assets, even in emergency lending. Now, with a conservative estimate of 53 percent of its assets frozen and the central bank unable to buy swaps from Western banks, the CBR could suddenly look much less credible as a lender of last resort.

In just a week, its claims on banks have quintupled to 5.2 trillion rubles, or 20 percent of its available reserves—and this assumes the $130 billion of gold reserves it holds are liquid, when they are in fact hard to move and not really in demand. Expect emergency lending to grow over the coming days and weeks, as markets re-open and the new sanctions begin to bite.

While nothing prevents the CBR from lending more rubles than it can access in foreign exchange, its goal in a high-inflation environment is to use the money it has wisely. It must also deal with a currency mismatch problem, since Western banks won’t provide swaps. The Peoples’ Bank of China does have a swap line with CBR, but only for the renminbi. Chinese state banks have also shown reluctance to finance the purchase of Russian commodities in dollars, so they are unlikely to offer dollar swaps.

If Russia's banks and currency were fine, they wouldn't be forcing foreigners to sell all their dollars for rubles. But, they are. They're also doing this:

The government has also introduced a set of policies to support the CBR’s effort to substitute frozen reserves. The Finance Ministry has introduced a “capital amnesty” allowing residents with savings abroad to bring them back to Russia with few questions asked about taxes or criminal activity. On March 1, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced a temporary ban on foreign investors selling their Russian assets. And in a subsequent announcement, the CBR banned the transfer of coupon payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds.

If you have to bribe people into using your money, your money sucks. In the world economy, money isn't worth what the government says it is, but what the world knows it is. And everyone who didn't divest and flee already has written off Russia as a loss.